The Plan for 2009-10

Caution: very crude approximations ahead.

My long term winning percentage is around 53.5% in college football, pro football, and college basketball. Using Matchbook over the last two years, I am averaging about -105 on the juice on each bet. Using these approximations, it works out to a Kelly bet of about 3%, since I make many bets simultaneously (I used 10 for the approximation). I recognize that I should be adjusting each bet based on the juice I am getting, but I doubt I that I have exactly a 53.5% chance of winning each bet.

With the above extremely crude approximations, it doesn't make any sense to bet "full Kelly." In fact, I am pretty sure that my efficiency would be way down if I bet the approximate "full Kelly" on each game. So, my plan is to make each unit 0.5% of my Tuesday bankroll. Normal bets will be 3x (or 1.5%) plays and big bets will be 5x (2.5%) plays. Every once in a while, I will break out a personal max when I think the edge is large for 8x (4%), but those will be exceedingly rare. These will all be flat bet in the same manner as baseball was, even though I'm not playing bases ever again.

These will go into effect starting Thursday or Friday, depending if I play Boise or not. Speaking of which, below are my leans for CFB Week 1.

CFB Week 1 Leans
1015p Boise State -4 (Thu.)
8p Tulane +13.5 (Fri.)
12p Syracuse +6.5
10p California -21.5
1030p Washington +17
330p Memphis +16.5 (Sun.)

If this list seems much smaller than year's past, it is, and it is exhaustive. Overall, I am committed to being a bit tighter this year, and even moreso in Weeks 1-3, since I always get my ass handed to me at the beginning of the season, which I don't think is a function of bad luck and small sample size. I'm also putting more emphasis on playing games that are higher volume. That means mainly games featuring BCS teams and off-Saturday games. It seems to me that games that have more volume will have a bigger need to balance square vs. sharp action (when a contrarian angle exists), and therefore, more value on the anti-public side.

Monday 8/31

You'd think four units would be enough to teach me a lesson.

8p Houston -3.5 +104 2x

BTW, you are going to have to wait for the SEC preview. I've been getting flipped over every which way today.

Sunday 8/30

I wonder if Orton and Cutler will go out and get hammered after the game?

8p Denver -2.5 +103 2x

This line just seems totally wrong, yet it opened at -1. Can't wait for Denver to win 23-21.

2009 CFB Preview: Texas

The Longhorns are the other obvious national title contender out of the Big XII. They have nobody on their non-conference schedule, unlike Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.



Texas really has a two game season. Beat Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and they are in all likelihood going to Pasadena. I suppose the one thing they could be worried about is a situation similar to last year, where OU and the Pokes go 7-1 along with Texas. OU will probably be higher in the BCS standing because of BYU and Miami.





The Horns have a decent median probability of going undefeated, but 6-1 isn't representing value. There is no value in their win total of ten either.

Saturday 8/29

730p Cleveland +1 -105 2x
8p New York Jets +3 +114 2x

I just hope the Titans and Giants are up by 14 at half so I don't have to pay attention to this garbage tonight.

2009 CFB Preview: Oklahoma

In my opinion, Oklahoma is the second best team in the Big XII. The books are on board as well, with Texas looking like a one point favorite at the Cotton Bowl in October.



The Sooners have a decent non-conference on paper, with BYU, Tulsa, and Miami, but they will be heavy favorites in every game. I'm hoping to actually be on the Sooners against Tulsa. Otherwise, the Sooners' regular season comes down to the Cotton Bowl, most likely.





As you would normally expect with one of the best teams in the country, there is no value here, unless you are really high on the Sooners. The best Vegas line was 7-1 while I was out there. There is nothing there for the total of ten, either.

Thursday 8/27

Moneyline talked me out of Jacksonville, but I still feel comfortable with this idiotic play.

8p Tampa Bay -2.5 +118 2x

I guess I am trying to rush greatness.

Streak for the Cash
730p Detroit vs. Atlanta
Current Streak: 4

I feel like Happ o5.5 hits and A's/Angels more runs are both good options tonight, but I'll take the WNBA games that I know have the right odds.

2009 CFB Preview: Oklahoma State

The Cowboys are going to be loaded this year on offense. Their biggest obstacle is going to be heading to Norman in the last game of the year. I would not be surprised if that game featured two undefeated teams, like 2006 tOSU vs. Michigan... and Oklahoma would be a touchdown favorite.




Otherwise, Oklahoma State will be a slight dog against Texas and favored in every other game. In Week 1, the Pokes get to face Georgia, which I had hoped would be a contrarian spot, but it seems like the cat is out of the bag.





I think Oklahoma State takes the record for biggest dropoff between 10-2 and 12-0, primarily due the game against the Sooners. For their chances of winning the MNC, 50-1 isn't going to cut it, unless a fortune teller on the boardwalk tells you Sam Bradford is going to tear his ACL. Over nine wins is close to having value with the median lines. If you think the Pokes will play above their Vegas median, it definitely has value.

2009 CFB Preview: Nebraska

I didn't run the numbers for Kansas, but judging by the lines, Nebraska is the Vegas favorite for being the Big XII North sacrifice to OU/UT in Jerry's New House.



I think it's also safe to assume they would be the favorite to win the Sun Belt. Nebraska's only probable losses are OU and VT, with a winnable game in Lawrence, which is the only other game they will be a dog. Subjectively, Nebraska has one of the lower standard deviations of teams I've run through, with only 1.4 wins separating E(Worst) and E(Best).





In Vegas, 80-1 was the best price you could get on the Huskers, so it doesn't look like much value there, unless you are really high on them. There is probably a little bit of value in the under for their win total of 8.5, but I doubt it is worth tying money up for the next four months.

2009 CFB Preview: Penn State

Moneyline already did Penn State, better than me, I'm sure.

Penn State is the other flawed favorite for the Big Ten title. They have to replace three starters on the offensive line, all three wide receivers and the entire secondary. Again, the Nittany Lions benefit from a generally down Big Ten, but have potential road blocks in Illinois and Michigan State. Penn State joins USC and Rutgers, so far, as teams that should be favored in every game.



Penn State does benefit from a weak non-conference schedule. They should be favored by three touchdowns or more in every game. Interestingly, Penn State has a better chance than tOSU to go undefeated, but should be installed as the second favorite to win the Big Ten. That's what happens when you don't play USC.





If you are high on the Nittany Lions, then the 40-1 available at Cal Neva a month ago was an absolute steal. Right now, you can get them at 30-1 offshore, which still isn't a bad deal from the median lines. Like most teams with an integer win total, there is no value in Penn State at nine.

2009 CFB Preview: Ohio State

Moneyline already did Ohio State, better than me, I'm sure.

The fact that Ohio State is highly regarded this year is more proof that the Big Ten is down. They lost over half their starters and are relying on a guy with the throwing motion of a shotputter to account for 75% of their offense and yet are regarded as a slightly better option than Penn State, which has problems of their own.



Don't get me wrong, tOSU should still be good, but they are not the juggernaut of years past.





The median lines show no value on the 9.5 win total and there is zero chance I would lay 14-1 on the Bucks to win the MNC this year. Still, they'll likely finish first or second in the Big Ten, so it should be a decent year for Buckeye fans.

Streakin 8/25

Garbage tennis this morning. If it gets pushed back for whatever reason, I'm passing and going straight to Blackburn.

10a T. Dent vs. I. Kunitsyn
2p Blackburn (win only) vs. Gillingham
7p Florida vs. Mets
Current Streak: 2

Tonight's options don't exactly make me tingly.

I guess I was wrong about the tingly. Marlins are big favorites.

2009 CFB Preview: Iowa

Iowa has been, along with Michigan State, a consensus pick in the second tier of the conference. They probably overachieved a little bit last year. They didn't really dominate anybody, and played down to competition against Pitt. Still, they did beat then undefeated Penn State and won the Outback Bowl against South Carolina.



Iowa schedule sets up unfavorably, having to go to Happy Valley and Columbus. Road games against Wisconsin and Michigan State don't help matters, either.





Illinois is probably a smidge better than Iowa, based on the lines set so far. On top of that, Illinois plays better non-conference games. There is no value in either Iowa's futures or their integer win total of eight.

2009 CFB Preview: Illinois

Everytime I think about Illinois, all I hear in my head is Brent Musburger saying, "Here come the ill-IIIIIIII-ni!" Which has nothing to do with gambling.

Illinois is a darkhorse pick to win the Big Ten this year, and with good reason. I really should have picked them over Michigan State as my Big Ten future. They'll be favored in every game this year, except Penn State and Ohio State and their chances of winning at home against Penn State are near 100%.



After running the numbers, I like Illinois a lot more. I have a feeling I'll be on them at least against tOSU and would be on the Illini against PSU, if I wagered on PSU games.





It's been a month (already?!) since I was out in Vegas, but if 200-1 was still available at Boyd's, I'd pick it up in a second. That has value at the median line, which has been rare so far in this series.

If you believe my lines and have money at 5Dimes the over has value. It is set at 7.5 -140. There is some time value of money concerns, but this is one of the best bets this series has uncovered so far.

Guess All of My Action Will Stay Offshore

via Deadspin

I actually intended on checking out the books at Delaware Park this fall. I still might go down if they have stupid lines that can be exploited, but I have a high enough standard deviation on wagers. I don't need to square it by playing parlays.

Streakin 8/24

Flipping Mercer Island...

1p Hammarby (w/d) vs. Gelfe
435p P. Fielder more bases than R. Zimmerman
8p Baltimore vs. Jets
Current Streak: 2

There's really no reason not to try these coin flips this afternoon. Fielder in the afternoon, I guess.

W14

Friday 8/21

More stupidity.

8p Kansas City +3 -120 2x

What's sad is that I plan on tightening up the NFL ship for the regular season, but I just can't pass up these obvious contrarian spots.

2009 CFB Preview: USC

USC is the best choice after Florida to go undefeated this year, since they don't have to play Oklahoma/Texas. They are going to be favored by a lot in most of their games, but their hardest are on the road, in Columbus, Berkeley, Eugene, and South Bend.



Still, I can't imagine any other team besides the Gators being at least a touchdown favorite in every game, which USC would be in the best case scenario.*





You could get the Trojans at 8-1 at the Boyd's books in Vegas when I was out there. If you are high on USC, that's a solid price. Somewhat surprisingly, unless you think USC is slightly underrated, there is value in the under at 5Dimes, but it's probably not a large enough edge to tie up your money for 4 months.

* - Obviously, USC is not going to be an eight point favorite in Columbus even in the best case scenario because it's too early in the season

Thursday 8/20

This is dumb.

730p Cincinnati +6.5 +105 2x

I mean, really dumb.

2009 CFB Preview: California

The Golden Bears are going to be a one man wrecking crew, so long as Tedford doesn't screw things up. Jahvid Best was the most explosive back in college football last year and there's no reason to think he won't continue that this year.



At least the Bears get USC at home. They have the best shot of anyone to knock off the Trojans this year (more on this tomorrow). Cal is also fortunate to catch Maryland and Minnesota in their descents back to their historical places in college football. When Cal scheduled them, Fridge looked competent and Glen Mason had turned Minnesota from a 3-8 Big Ten also ran into a 7-4 Big Ten also ran.





If you are high on Cal this year, then the 55-1 you could get at the Venetian when I was out there isn't so bad. The median odds put them at 90-1 to go undefeated in the regular season while the best case scenario puts the odds at 31-1. Yet another integer win total means no value there.

2009 CFB Preview: Oregon

Some people are forecasting Oregon to have a shot at second place in the Pac10 this year, which makes some sense the way they played down the stretch last year and a returning Jeremiah Masoli. The coaching change from Mike Belotti hasn't received a lot of mainstream press, but most seem to think that it won't be that big of a deal.



Like Rutgers in the Big East, the hardest games, USC, Cal, and Oregon State, all come in Eugene, which certainly helps. On the other hand, those three teams are a lot better than Pitt, WVU, and USF.





Having to go to Boise the first Thursday and a tough Pac10 leaves the Ducks with little room for error. Even in the best case scenario, they only get through the Pac10 unscathed 2.9% of the time and less than 1% of the time they go fully undefeated, mostly due to the trip to the Smurf Turf. With an integer win total, it's not really worth talking about whether there is value in their number.

Tomorrow, for Jonny, it's California.

Streakin 8/18

Good job, Adam and VW.

250p USA wins 400m Hurdles
Current Streak: 12

U-S-A! U-S-A!

2009 CFB Preview: Notre Dame - Take 2

Last week, I did a post refuting Joe Schad's idea that Notre Dame will win ten games, but the numbers appeared off. I noticed the next night there was something wrong with the Monte Carlo calculator when I went to run the stats for two other teams. To fix the error, I re-downloaded the calculator from xlssports and performed the analysis again. The results look much better this time.



When you sum the individual probabilities in the median scenario, the expected value for Notre Dame's wins is 8.8, but last time the expected value for the record was 7-5, clearly wrong. At nine, the number appears to be correct now.



Offering Joe 2-1 is still slightly +EV, especially when considering that Notre Dame's preseason lines are always overinflated, but not quite to the degree I'd stated last week. Whatever, it's my dumb fault, like 5Dimes offering Alvaro Quiros -130 against the World's Greatest Golfer, so if Joe reads this or the tweet I send him, he can still have the bet.

I'm backing off the college football previews to one a day. It's too much work to bang out two of these a night, especially with my real job taking up more time over the next month or two.

Streakin 8/17

More lopsided LLWS games. Sooner or later, one of these huge favorites is going to lose. Hopefully it happens after I get my t-shirt.

8p Staten Island, NY vs. Bernardsville, NJ
Current Streak: 11

See comments. No need to back that kind of line movement.

Must Read for Football Geeks

I've previously mentioned my e-mancrush on Chris from Smart Football. He put up two articles today that are must reads for anyone interested in the state of modern offensive football. The first deals with how the read option is evolving at the college level and the second describes how the Wildcat might be implemented across the NFL this year.

Streakin 8/16

The Little League World Series is the new Women's College World Series.

8p Chula Vista, CA vs. Granite Bay, CA
Current Streak: 11

Nothing like putting a t-shirt on the line with a bunch of 12 year old kids.

Sunday 8/16

Tiger has to lose a Sunday lead at some point in a major, right? I floated this last night after reading what The Saw had to say and it got picked up.

Y.E. Yang to win the PGA Championship +2000 1x

At least I have something to watch today. Good luck.

Saturday 8/15

New low: betting on NFL Exhibition games

4p Detroit -3 -115 2x
8p Tampa Bay +4 +100 2x

But really, Detroit is favored? NFLX games don't get more contrarian than this.

Not sure why Tampa's line is moving, but OK, I'll bite.

Streakin 8/15

Thank you, 5Dimes, for putting lines on contests involving 12 year old kids. I don't know what I would do without you.

12p Urbandale, Iowa vs. Columbia, Missouri
255p Peabody, Massachusetts vs. Lincoln, Rhode Island
9p Mercer Island, Washington vs. Salem, Oregon
Current Streak: 10

Not sure how I missed that Washington is favored by 9.5 tonight. That will definitely be a play. Possibly Massachusetts, too, if Iowa is over in time.

Streakin 8/14

I'm pretty sure that the Notre Dame preview is wrong and that I need to fix the Monte Carlo calculator. Somewhere along the way I must have inadvertently changed the program, because the results for the Oregon and UCLA previews I did yesterday were wrong, too. Fortunately, I still have the email from xlssports and can re-download the calculator.

In the mean time, that means no CFB previews today. I still hope to have the Pac10 done by the end of the weekend.

Current Streak: 7

Not much to play early. Toms is my biggest lean, but I have a feeling it's marginal.

Passing Anderson and BC. -160 just isn't going to cut it at W7.

I think I might take the weekend off from doing analyses. I really need to get caught up for my fantasy draft next week. I'm sure both of my loyal readers will be destroyed.

2009 CFB Preview: Stanford

Stanford has a tough non-conference schedule, traveling to Wake and getting the 10-win Fighting Irish at home. Otherwise, they are a mediocre Pac 10 team, that the books aren't respecting quite yet.



Trying to get a handle on Wake and Stanford is tough, because there aren't a lot of common opponents to work with. I eventually came up with -2 assuming that Stanford was close to NC State. That, I think, is as good of an assumption as going Stanford +1 > Oregon State -6 > Cincy +3 > USF +7 > Miami (FL) -10.5 > Wake Forest, which comes close anyway.





I don't have a win total for Stanford, but 150-1 is a terrible value for them to win the national title. Things should get more interesting tomorrow when I look at Oregon (and UCLA).