New Template, Obviously

I dunno. It's kinda ok. I accidentally uploaded a previous version of the old template, which killed all of the widgets I had on the sidebar, necessitating a quick fix. Unlike most themes, this particular one didn't seem like it was meant for an emo kid or a thirteen year old girl, so I quickly uploaded it. I'm not sold it's the right answer though.

Oh, and go WNBA.

Record Update - 28 June 2009

Here is the definition of mediocrity (and probably a random walk, as well):



Not surprisingly, I exhibit no skill at baseball betting. This week's culprits were the Diamondbacks and Astros, who continue to suck. I suppose that means I should keep betting on them. They were almost counterbalanced by the Fathers, who were 3-0 for the week.

Tuesday 6/30

Thanks to VW for catching me being a groggy idiot this morning.

Plays
705p Baltimore +115 2x
710p Washington +136 2x
710p Atlanta -118 2x
1010p Oakland +102 2x

Streak for the Cash
7p Atlanta vs. Minnesota
Current Streak: 0

I told you I'd be blowing my streak on a WNBA game.

Leans 6/30

Geez, solid night for everyone last night.

Leans
705p CLE (Lee) -190 vs. CHW (Richard)
705p BAL (Hill) +116 vs. BOS (Smoltz)
710p ARZ (Haren) -136@ CIN (Arroyo)
710p ATL (Lowe) -126 vs. PHL (Blanton)
1010p OAK (Morrow) +107 vs. DET (Galarraga)

I'm really not a fan of potentially laying that much chalk.

Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 7

Anyone have any idea how much juice a game is worth in tennis O/Us? I'm really tempted to play the Williams/Azarenka over. Sportingbet.com has the O/U set at 22 (-120/-120). Using Pinny's 21.5 (-119/+103) line as a guide, does that mean that each half game is worth roughly 2.5%, with some obvious adjustments as you get farther away from the true line? At best, that makes o19.5 somewhere around 62-65% to win, which seems to be a borderline play at 7. Since it's 530a and I don't have a lot of confidence in my math, I think this is a pass.

Start w/d isn't a terrible option in the afternoon, either, if your streak is under 5 or so.

Where the Value Lies - Week 13

Take these thoughts with a grain of salt, because I've never been through an entire baseball schedule. By the end of this week, we'll be just about halfway through baseball season. At some point, these third order record assessments will become less valuable. For example, the Nationals have been sitting right around -10 wins vs. their expected record for about 2.5 weeks. That means, recently, they've been playing at the level of their expected record (~43%). The market should react to their increased level of play.

I would assume that going forward, looking at something like monthly changes would be better at identifying teams that currently underrated in the market. Unfortunately, I didn't think about this until recently, so I haven't been saving the data. So, starting at the end of July, I'll start looking both at season-long third order differences and change in third order record over four weeks.

I don't know if it will illuminate anything more, because I'm not sure these posts have been particularly informing to begin with, but it's not like there is anything else for me to blog about this summer.

These third order differences are through games of Sunday, June 28th.

Underrated
1. Nationals -9.9
2. Rays -7.2
3. Indians -6.2
4. Diamondbacks -4.9
5. Mets -2.8

Overrated
1. Giants +6.6
2. Brewers +5.0
3. Tigers +4.5
4. Rangers +3.7
5. Reds +3.5
5. Dodgers +3.5

I think I'm more interested in fading the overrated teams than playing the underrated teams. The underperformance of their third order records just hasn't translated into plays on the Rays or Mets.

Monday 6/29

Plays
705p Cleveland +100 2x
705p Baltimore +152 2x
1005p Oakland +102 2x
Pass: Colorado

On the surface, the Rockies seemed like a play to me, especially with Ubaldo on the mound, but I can't wrap my head around a team that's won 19 of 22 being all that contrarian, even if they are playing the best team in the National League.

Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 7

All of the baseball options are garbage. Needs more WNBA.

Leans 6/29

I completely forgot to write the "Where the Value Lies" and "Record Update" posts last night. I'm sure that is a huge disappointment to everyone. In any case, I updated the record on the sidebar and will write those up tonight after work.

Leans
705p PIT (Duke) +100 vs. CHC (Harden)
705p CLE (Pavano) -101 vs. CHW (Floyd)
705p BAL (Berken) +147 vs. BOS (Lester)
1005p OAK (Anderson) +114 vs. DET (Porcello)
1010p COL (Jimenez) +107 @ LAD (Wolf)

Colorado can still be contrarian when they play the Dodgers, right?

Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 7

I don't think you can argue against Karlovic, Safina, or Roddick if you are at a lower streak. You'd probably want to go with Karlovic then Roddick, due to time and some contrarian considerations. At W7, I'm going to tighten up a little bit more than usual. Which only means that I'll lose on a -250 WNBA game instead of a -150 Wimbledon matchup.

Sunday 6/28

I've got another busy Sunday, so I need to get all of these in now.

Plays
135p Atlanta -102 2x
205p Houston +126 2x
410p Arizona -138 2x
805p San Diego +133 2x

I don't think I even want to know what happened in the 9th in Houston.

Streak for the Cash
2p United States +1.5 vs. Brazil
6p Detroit vs. Sacramento
Current Streak: 7

I was somewhat surprised to see this as the best option on the board before 5p. I am very uncomfortable with the play because 1) it's soccer and 2) it's a homer pick. Whatever.

Saturday 6/27

I definitely should have put these in this morning when I first looked at the lines slept through gambling today.

Plays
410p Atlanta -140 2x
410p Arizona +118 2x
805p San Diego +150 2x
1010p Seattle -119 2x

I probably could have made an argument for any of those to be triples, except San Diego.

Streak for the Cash
8p Chicago vs. Washington
Current Streak: 5

I can't wait to lose my streak on a flipping WNBA game.

Leans 6/27

Leans
410p ATL (Vasquez) -141 vs. BOS (Wakefield)
410p ARZ (Davis) +116 vs. LAA (Lackey)
805p SD (Correia) +150 @ TEX (Holland)
1010p SEA (Hernandez) -127 @ LAD (Milton)

Nothing really exciting in Streak, either.

Friday 6/26

I've run out of things to talk about. Go Nats.

Plays
705p Atlanta +112 2x
940p Arizona +139 2x
1010p Seattle +159 2x

Streak for the Cash
805p Milwaukee vs. San Francisco
Current Streak: 4

Leans 6/26

Leans
735p ATL (Jurrjens) +113 vs. BOS (Beckett)
735p FLA (Johnson) +132 @ TB (Shields)
815p MIN (Perkins) +143 @ STL (Wainwright)
940p ARZ (Buckner) +138 vs. LAA (Weaver)
1010p SEA (Vargas) +161 @ LAD (Kershaw)

I find it interesting that the Braves are getting a longer line at home with Jurrjens on the mound than the Nats at home had yesterday with Zimmermann pitching.

Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 3

There's just not a whole lot to like with the early options.

Thursday 6/25 - PM

I've suddenly become flipping terrible at Streak. At least I have a shot at running my losing streak up to like 4 or 5 tonight.

Plays
705p Washington +113 2x
710p Atlanta -110 2x

Of course I'll bet on the worst team in baseball playing the best team only getting +11X.

Streak for the Cash
Thabeet 2nd
Pac 10 o1.5 players selected 6-10
Current Streak: 3

I have to wait for Glover to finish screwing the pooch, but there are a lot of NBA Draft options tonight, so I don't think I am going to post anything yet.

Thursday 6/25 - AM

Solid effort by the Reds last night.

Plays
205p White Sox +140 2x
440p SD/SEA o9 +108 2x

Leans
705p WAS (Zimmermann) +112 vs. BOS (Smoltz)
710p ATL (Lowe) -101 vs. NYY (Pettitte)
940p ARZ (Garland) +100 vs. TEX (Feldman)

Streak for the Cash
930a A. Roddick/T. Kunitsyn u3.5 sets
103p L. Glover over V. Singh
Current Streak: 2

I was set to take Mahan, but then I checked the sets betting at Pinny and Roddick is -248 to win 3-0. Easy enough.

I think Vijay is the right play this afternoon (according to Bodog), but I'll await Saw approval on that play. Nothing else is remotely appealing.

Wednesday 6/24

I'm sure I'm leaving something on the table here, but I'm not in much of a thinking mood right now.

Plays
705p Cincinnati +138 2x

Streak for the Cash
7p LSU vs. Texas
Current Streak: 1

The CWS probably won't be over in time, but Seattle if I get a chance. There is zero chance of playing Saunders.

Leans 6/24

Ok, everything ought to be back to normal, at least for a couple weeks.

Leans
705p CIN (Arroyo) +131 @ TOR (Richmond)
705p TB (Garza) -169 vs. PHL (Blanton)
705p DET (Porcello) -120 vs. CHC (Harden)
710p ATL (Kawakami) +127 vs. NYY (Chamberlain)
805p MIN (Blackburn) -118 @ MIL (Looper)
805p KC (Hochevar) +156 @ HOU (Oswalt)

Streak for the Cash
10a S. Williams/J. Groth o18.5 games
2p Spain -1.5 vs. United States
Current Streak: 0

The over is the slight favorite here, but it would clearly be a pass if my streak wasn't zero. I have no clue on the aces prop and Spain -1.5 has nearly no edge later this afternoon.

And my winning percentage continues to tumble...

Tuesday 6/23

I've got more running around to do today. I love spending my "vacation" doing everything but relaxing.

Plays
705p Washington +119 2x
710p Atlanta -106 2x
810p White Sox -106 2x
1010p San Diego +129 2x

I'm not enamored with today's card. I don't have enough time to worry about Streak for the Cash, either.

Where The Value Lies - Week 12

The usual suspects remain this week. Tampa is making a run at the Nats for most underrated team and the Giants continue to play better than peripherals would suggest.

Overrated
1. Giants +5.9
2. Dodgers +4.1
2. Brewers +4.1
4. Tigers +3.5
5. Reds +3.2

Underrated
1. Nationals -9.7
2. Rays -7.6
3. Indians -6.4
4. Diamondbacks -3.4
5. Twins -3.2

I have no idea how informed the average square is in baseball, but I wonder if we aren't playing the Rays because a lot of mainstream sources keep talking about their AL-leading run differential. Hopefully, we will get to play them against the Phils this week.

The Nats/BoSox lines ought to be interesting Tues-Thurs. Mets/Cards, Twins/Brewers, and DBacks/Rangers will deserve consideration early in the week as well. Over the weekend, Twins/Cards, Tribe/Reds, and maybe A's/Rox could be looks.

Record Update - 21 June 2009

After Ashy Tuesday, I recovered nicely for the rest of the week, showing a decent profit after going 12-8 the rest of the week. I'm still in the red for the year, though.



Baltimore and Washington (?!) were the biggest helpers this week, responsible for all of the total profit.

Sunday 6/21

There is potential for a frequently updated post tomorrow. It depends on how exactly my plans shake out with my old roommate, but it will involve horse racing if it occurs, so 98% of the people that read this blog probably won't care.

Plays
135p Atlanta +118 2x
135p Baltimore +161 2x
410p Arizona +157 2x

Another meh card today. Atlanta got steamed as I was putting these in, too.

Golf
Following the Saw on these. These are flat bet, just like baseball sides.
Ricky Barnes +315 2x
Lucas Glover +266 2x

Alternatively, you could at it like Barnes/Glover -106 2x. Whatever.

Streak for the Cash
2p Italy (win or draw) vs. Brazil
930p Los Angeles vs. Sacramento
Current Streak: 0

Not a lot of great options for the Streak card today, either.

Passing Everything

Today's card doesn't look particularly appealing and I'm going to be out all day. Good luck if you play anything.

Friday 6/19

Did I miss something somewhere?

Soren Kjeldsen: Steady Soren is one of several who share his name that never get enough recognition over here for there play. Kjeldsen is arguably the best of the group. Kjeldsen has played very well this season in Europe with a win in Andalucia and a top-3 finish at Wentworth. Kjeldsen also posted a top-10 at Doral. Kjeldsen is not the type of player who immediately sticks out as a contender at Bethpage, but I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see him contend.

Because this doesn't make any sense to me:



Plays
705p Baltimore +134 2x
705p Washington -104 2x
710p Atlanta +145 2x
810p Houston +142 2x

I know it's commonplace, but Washington's line is absurd.

Leans
105p CLE (Ohka) +152 @ CHC (Lilly)
410p TB (Shields) +113 @ NYM (Santana)
410p KC (Bannister) +157 vs. STL (Carpenter) - this is down the card, for whatever reason
705p BAL (Bergesen) +155 @ PHL (Happ)
710p FLA (Johnson) -104 vs. NYY (Burnett)

Started late...

Streak for the Cash
730p Arizona State vs. Texas Uh, whoops.
Current Streak: 0

Let's see, Texas already beat Rizo St, yet the Sun Devils are a -135/+125 favorite. Hopefully this game will end quickly and I can play Outman late.

Leans 6/19

Miraculously, after Black Tuesday, I'm somehow positive for the week. Of course, I'll lose 10x this weekend, so it won't matter.

Leans
705p BAL (Hill) +133 @ PHL (Bastardo)
710p FLA (West) +133 @ NYY (Pettitte)
710p ATL (Kawakami) +133 @ BOS (Dice-K)
810p HOU (Oswalt) +133 @ MIN (Slowey)

That's flipping weird.

Streak for the Cash
10a Sweden (win or draw) vs. Italy
220p Cleveland vs. Cubs
Current Streak: 0

I'm not sure which is better, this or Tiger o69.5, but the odds on the soccer game are about -165.

None of the other afternoon props look particularly good. If I am at W3, I'll probably pass everything.

Does My Lemmy Mean More Now?

Thursday 6/18 - PM

I don't often make mistakes as obvious as I did this morning. Both Colorado and Pittsburgh didn't really turn out to be all that contrarian.

Plays
705p Baltimore -117 3x
1010p Oakland +137 2x

Livan Hernandez is not a 5-1 pitcher.

Streak for the Cash
810p Arizona vs. Kansas City
Current Streak: 2

I'm such a pussy. I should have taken Baltimore.

Thursday 6/18 - AM

The College World Series has been the death of my winning percentage in Streak. I'm 3-6-1 in College Baseball, by far my worst sport with more than two games played.

Plays
105p Washington +282 2x
110p Pittsburgh +143 2x
310p Colorado +103 2x

Leans
705p BAL (Berken) -110 vs. NYM (Hernandez)
710p FLA (Nolasco) +202 @ BOS (Lester)
805p HOU (Backe) +152 @ TEX (Padilla)
815p DET (Porcello) -104 @ STL (Pineiro)
1010p OAK (Mazzaro) +134 @ LAD (Wolf)

Streak for the Cash
806a T. Woods over P. Harrington/A. Cabrera
2p Cubs vs. White Sox
Current Streak: 1

The golf prop is -180/+150 at 5Dimes. Hopefully, this is over by 2p and I can hop on the North Siders, but I haven't been lucky this week with getting my plays in from work.

Wednesday 6/17

Running late again. I couldn't differentiate between a lot of these at the back end, so I just ended up playing them all. When my bankroll is nil tomorrow, that will look like a good decision.

Plays
705p Baltimore -148 2x
705p Cleveland -129 2x
710p Florida +162 2x
805p Houston +134 2x
810p Arizona +155 2x
810p Pittsburgh +183 2x
840p Colorado -112 2x
1010p Oakland +151 2x

I can't wait to wake up and find 1-7 tomorrow.

Streak for the Cash
7p Virginia vs. Arkansas
Current Streak: 0

These baseball lines have been killing my streaks lately. I'm sure Vegas has been really excited about the outcomes as well.

Leans 6/17

And just like that, back down 17x on the season. What a joke.

Leans
705p WAS (Lannan) +190 vs. NYY (Wang)
705p BAL (Uehara) -151 vs. NYM (Redding)
705p CLE (Huff) -120 vs. MIL (Suppan)
710p FLA (Miller) +162 @ BOS (Penny)
805p HOU (Ortiz) +140 @ TEX (Harrison)
810p ARZ (Scherzer) +157 @ KC (Greinke)
810p PIT (Snell) +170 @ MIN (Liriano)
840p COL (Cook) -115 vs. TB (Price)
1010p OAK (Cahill) +131 @ LAD (Kuroda)

Streak for the Cash
1230p Uzbekistan (win or draw) vs. Bahrain
Current Streak: 0

It'll be close, but hopefully, I can get on the over in the New Zealand/South Africa game.

Tuesday 6/16

Today has been really busy.

Plays
705p Washington +345 2x
705p Baltimore -126 2x
840p Colorado -110 2x
1010p Oakland +139 2x

Biggest pass was Florida. I'm also somewhat surprised the Tribe didn't end up on the card.

Streak for the Cash
7p Arizona State vs. Texas
Current Streak: 0

Geez, I'm half tempted to bet on the Sun Devils. Passing everything late.

Leans 6/16

There seems to be a lot of borderline plays tonight. This card could end up with with six games or zero.

Leans
705p WAS (Martis) +310 @ NYY (Sabathia)
705p BAL (Guthrie) -116 vs. NYM (Pelfrey)
705p TOR (Romero) +185 @ PHL (Hamels)
705p CLE (Sowers) +127 vs. MIL (Gallerdo)
710p FLA (Volstad) +154 @ BOS (Wakefield)
810p PIT (Maholm) +128 @ MIN (Perkins)
1010p OAK (Braden) +140 @ LAD (Kershaw)

It's weird to have almost as many AL teams as NL teams on this list, but the O's and Tribe are definitely legit.

Streak for the Cash
11a A. Mauresmo vs. V. Zvonareva
2p Serbia (win or draw) vs. Italy
Current Streak: 2

There is at least a chance of getting three marginal plays in this afternoon. If the tennis match ends quickly, the under will be the play in the Belarus/Sweden kiddie soccer tilt (55% or so), followed by Serbia w/d (56% or so) in the afternoon. If the tennis match takes longer, it comes down to the unposted total in the baseball game and Serbia. Hopefully someone will alert me to the price on the total before 2p.

Short List for the Naismith

Anyone else totally stoked at the thought of backing Greivis Vasquez again next year? No? I don't understand why he doesn't go to Italy now and get it over with.

Passing everything tonight. I want to play Cleveland, especially with the line movement, but I can't justify it with the numbers at Wagerline and Sportsbook.

Streak for the Cash
7p LSU/Arkansas o10.5 runs
Current Streak: 0

Flip CS-Fullerton. Two games at better than -200 and lost them both. If those lines were accurate, there was roughly an 8% chance of them losing both games.

I should probably play the Angels at 10p tonight, but flip them too.

Record Update - 14 June 2009

As I suspected, it didn't take long for the losing ways to return. On Wednesday (I think), I was 2-1 and only 0.3x away from being positive for the year. I promptly went 2-8 the rest of the week and the result is this:



Nobody was particularly at fault. Cleveland pushed farther into the black, but was balanced by continued losing with the Padres. Otherwise, not a whole lot of changes this week. That happens when you only play thirteen games.

Leans 6/15

Only two games on the card today and neither one is particularly interesting.

Leans
705p CLE (Pavano) -117 vs. MIL (Bush)

The numbers aren't there at the moment, but that just seems like it should be an anti-public play.

Streak for the Cash
8a S. Darcis vs. M. Gicquel
11a F. Santaro vs. R. Kendrick
2p CS-Fullerton vs. Virginia
Current Streak: 0

I'm only playing the first tennis match because I'm at zero and it's there. I'll be on Santoro over Kendrick and Fullerton over Virginia later. If, for whatever reason, the 2nd tennis match doesn't finish until after 2, but before 2:30, Italy isn't a terrible option, but far worse than Fullerton.

Where the Value Lies - Week 11

Note: I'm running this tonight instead of tomorrow afternoon because of the Injuns' game. I'll put up the record update tomorrow afternoon.

It's one week closer to college football season and the Nationals continue to dramatically underperform their third order record, becoming the first team this season to reach double digits. Shocking.

As always, these come from the third order record deviations after Saturday June 13.

Underrated
1. Nationals -10.2
2. Rays -6.1
3. Indians -4.2
4. Diamondbacks -3.2
5. Mets -2.9

Overrated
1. Giants +5.9
2. Brewers +3.8
3. Rangers +3.8
4. Phillies +3.6
5. Dodgers +3.3

I'm almost definitely overthinking this, but I'm surprised that we haven't been on the Rays more often. I know they just got done with the Nats, but I wonder if we'll see some more of them as they head out to play the red hot Rockies.

Unfortunately, it doesn't look there will be much fading of the Giants this week. They play the Angels and Rangers in their interleague matchups. Other potential early week looks include Tribe/Brewers, A's/Dodgers, and Jays/Phils.

Sunday 6/14

I woke up too early this morning.

Plays
335p San Diego +179 2x
405p Oakland +133 2x
805p Cleveland -104 2x

Streak for the Cash
10a Iraq/S. Africa u2.5 goals
305p Colorado vs. Seattle
8p Orlando vs. Los Angeles
Current Streak: 0

I guess Hammel in the afternoon? I don't know. The Streakmaster did a good job today.

Saturday 6/13

I didn't bet much on hockey this year, but I have to imagine the Pens winning last night was good for the maple syrup drinking part of Contrarianville.

Plays
410p Cleveland +101 2x
605p Washington +149 2x
905p San Diego +196 2x

Yes, I'm dipping my toe back into the Natinals' pool. I'm still planning on picking my spots a lot more carefully with that team than I had been before my little falling out with them.

Streak for the Cash
2p CS-Fullerton vs. Arkansas
8p San Antonio vs. New York
Current Streak: 1

I'll probably be on Franklin at 5p followed by the Silver Stars (?!) at 8p.

Friday 6/12

Professional and personal reasons have left me drained. It's not been necessarily bad, just tiring and hectic. Case in point: just finished an almost two hour nap. What is this? College?

Plays
705p Pittsburgh +126 2x
705p Cleveland -113 2x

I almost played Florida, but it's not like the books are begging you to take them. Combine that with the line movement, and it turned into a pass.

Leans
After dinner...

Streak for the Cash
705p Yankees vs. Mets
Current Streak: 2

Angels later, if the Subway Series is over in time.

Note to TheFiancee

The Angels were not -152 favorites yesterday. I didn't need a streak of W5 anyway.

Thursday 6/11 - AM

This card blows.

Plays
205p CHC/HOU o9.5 +101 2x
340p SF/ARZ o9.5 +115 2x

Leans
705p CLE (Sowers) +122 vs. KC (Greinke)

Not that I want to be in the fading Greinke business, but it seems like every fifth day he comes up here, and I always end up passing him.

Streak for the Cash
130p Livorno
7p Angels
Current Streak: 0

I want to wait to see what The Saw says about the golf props. If I don't hear anything, all I'll play this afternoon is Livorno (win only).

The Case of the Washington Nationals

I like how some people in Contrarianville have been making snarky thinly veiled jokes at my expense over the last week as if, in this post, I said something to the effect of:

The Washington Nationals do not have, never had, and never will have any value. You people are complete squares that are betting on them.

When, in fact, I said:

I'm not entirely sure what this means, other than I have likely been betting on Washington (n=34)... too much, when they don't actually have value.

I'll still stand by that statement. This whole post came about because some anonymous dick failed at making a joke about the Nationals. I was reasonably sure when I did the analysis I would find that Washington juice was greater than their third order winning percentage. When it didn't come in that way, I needed some way to explain it. Of course, why let the scientific method get in the way of good snark.

There is zero doubt the analysis was flawed. I thought it was going to be a quick and dirty analysis that showed up "anonymous." A lot of the data points were not valid because of sample size considerations. But that's not what I'm getting hammered on. It's Washington. And I'm being misquoted at that.

When, as contrarians, have we ever bet on a team in 77% of their games? Are we to think that the books are shading their lines every single day against whichever team the Nationals are playing? I find that unlikely. And because of that, I came to the conclusion that betting on the Nats every single day is likely -EV.

Obviously, with a team as terrible/underrated as Washington, there are going to be days where they have value. I've never made a statement otherwise. I came closest in the comments here:

Well, yeah, except that Matchbook gamblers have them pegged as a .430 team in the 35 games I've wagered (with no trend to the juice) and PCT3 had them pegged as a .430 team through 49 games (when pitching matchups and HFA are smoothed out over the sample). Is PCT3 not the expected number of wins and losses given their base runs and SoS? If expected winning percentage = odds received, how is that not a sign of no value? What am I missing here?

But once again, this is making the point that betting on the Nats every single day is not +EV (assuming you substitute PCT2 for PCT3) or that if it is (as Vegas points out later in the thread), it's not terribly +EV. It's better to pick your spots.

And this all gets back to why I stopped playing Washington. I readily admit that baseball is not my strongest sport. I'm having a difficult time deciding when Washington does and does not have value, since their lines always seem so off because their real winning percentage right now is around 27%. If I feel like I've proven to myself that betting on Washington every single day is not a good bet, and if I feel like I can't pick the good bets from the bad, then doesn't it make sense to completely pass them totally?

Or we could just say that Washington has no value at all. Either one.

Wednesday 6/10

Well, that was neat. Thanks, Comcast for only leaving me 36 hours without internet. It's not like I need it for anything.

Plays
705p Baltimore +103 2x
805p Colorado +128 2x

Streak for the Cash
705p Philadelphia vs. New York
Current Streak: 3

Also, thanks ESPN for not grading my Orlando wager until this afternoon. I didn't want to play Sri Lanka anyway.

Comcast is Awesome

Putting this up from TheFiancee's phone. For whatever reason, Comcast will only let me access 5Dimes and Gmail from either our desktop or laptop. Can't get to MB, so I guess I have to skip tonight. Would have played Col and Hou. Good luck.

Monday 6/8 - PM

I'm passing everything tonight. Biggest pass was Sonnastine.

Streak for the Cash
730p Los Angeles vs. Detroit
Current Streak: 0

Jesus Christ, my life has sunk to a new low. I'm only playing the WNBA because that will allow me to get two games in tonight. If you are at a high streak, hook 'em. Fathers for me late.

Where the Value Lies - Week 10

The Nationals, after going 2-5 this week, continue to be the squad that cannot turn their expected runs into wins. No surprise there. What was surprising to me was that the Rays, after going 4-1 this week, still remain underrated (unlucky?), though that is due mostly to their performance in one run games.

As always, these are the third order record deviations through Saturday.

Overrated
1. Brewers +4.4
2. Giants +4.0
3. Dodgers +3.9
4. Rangers +3.9
5. Phillies +3.1

Underrated
1. Nationals -8.8
2. Indians -5.5
3. Rays -4.8
4. Rockies -3.7
5. Twins -1.7
5. Diamondbacks -1.7

I realize I just got done betting on Texas over the weekend, but they and the Dodgers strike me as the most obvious fade opportunities from the overrated list.

I suspect that the Rays will end up being played more regularly. Obviously, being in the World Series last year kept their play rate down early in the season, but I imagine fourth place and a game over .500 will make them playable, especially against the top three in the AL East.

That opportunity will present itself today, when the Rays take on the Yankees in the Bronx in the series finale. Elsewhere, the Rockies/Brewers, Dbacks/Giants, and Padres/Dodgers series look to have decent potential early in the week. For the weekend matchups, it'll be interleague play, so I imagine there might be some value in the NL as a whole. Specifically, Twins/Cubs, Tribe/Cards, Rockies/M's, and A's/Giants might be good places to start (of course, I picked two AL teams).

Monday 6/8 - AM

I guess I should have looked at the schedule yesterday. After the last few weeks of only night games on Mondays, I wasn't expecting to have to make any decisions this morning.

Plays
215p Colorado +115 2x

Eventually, the Rockies are going to start to suck again. I'm looking forward to giving back all of last week's profits with them.

Leans
705p TB (Sonnastine) +148 @ NYY (Pettitte)
710p PIT (Duke) +132 @ ATL (Kawakami)
1005p ARZ (Garland) +160 @ SD (Peavy)

It looks like our run with Outman might be over. It was fun while it lasted.

Streak for the Cash
1230p Australia vs. Sri Lanka
Current Streak: 0

Stupid Florida. I'm not entirely sure what happened other than Southern Miss scored three in the bottom of the eighth. And they didn't even have the decency to be done by 10p. In any case, Australia is a -170/+140 favorite today in the cricket match.

Record Update - 7 June 2009

Hooray, positive variance! A +19x week is an unusually lucky week. It'd be nice to string another week like this together soon.



More precisely, hooray, Pirates and Rockies! Those teams were a little north of 16x between the two of them this week.



Don't worry, I'm sure I'll be back to my losing ways next week.

Sunday 6/7

More phone checking on the road today.

Plays
135p MIL/ATL o9.5 +116 2x
135p NYM/WAS o10 +114 2x
205p Cleveland +115 2x
215p Colorado +124 2x

Streak for the Cash
12p North Carolina vs. East Carolina
7p Florida vs. Southern Miss
Current Streak: 4

I ran the numbers for the French (excuse me, Freedom) Final, but it was only 59/41 in favor of o3.5 sets, so I passed. The Heels are a disgusting -380/+315 favorite. The rest of the day is going to be all Super Regional action, with the Gay-tors and Sun Devils as the other looks.

Saturday 6/6 - PM

These picks are The Right Stuff.

Plays
705p Texas +197 2x
715p Colorado +125 2x

Colorado was close to being a triple again.

Streak for the Cash
410p Dodgers vs. Philadelphia
Current Streak: 3

I struggled with picking sides tonight. There was a possibility of Mine That Bird, Astros, Dbacks, but I opted against it because I don't have a clue which side is right for Mine That Bird and there is a decent chance that the Astros' game wouldn't end in time. If I knew for sure that the Astros would be done in less than three hours, I would have probably gone with the other option. Instead, I'll be on the Wings at 8p.

Saturday 6/6 - AM

More traveling today...

Plays
105p Kansas City +168 2x

Leans
705p TEX (Holland) +185 @ BOS (Lester)
710p CIN (Maloney) +124 vs. CHC (Dempster)
715p COL (Cook) +117 @ STL (Wellemeyer)

Streak for the Cash
12p North Carolina vs. East Carolina
Current Streak: 2

Were either of the 9a options good plays?

Friday 6/5

This weekend is going to be real busy. I've got to make a quick trip to the parents' tonight. Then, if you take a look at what concerts are going to be around Philadelphia tomorrow night, you'll see how much TheFiancee owes me. Anyway, not a lot of time to screw around.

Plays
705p Texas +129 2x
815p Colorado +168 3x

It was everything I could do to pass Washington. I just don't want to deal with that team, even at a ridiculous number.

Streak for the Cash
7p LSU vs. Rice
Current Streak: 0

I'll be on Fullerton later. Hopefully, college baseball games take less than 3.5 hours.

Also, flip Fernando Gonzalez. That douchebag was up 4-1 in the fifth set before losing 5 straight games. Tennis is stupid.

Leans 6/5

Oversleeping sucks.

Leans
WAS, PIT, COL, TB, TEX, CLE, MIN

Streak for the Cash
Gonzalez, then FSU, then UVA (if I can). Make sure you play FSU, they are the biggest favorite on the board this morning.
Current Streak: 1

Thursday 6/4 - PM

I really need to start downloading podcasts to my phone. I just spent the last 45 minutes watching Little People, Big World and Jon and Kate Plus Eight at the gym. I'm rooting for the terrorists now.

Plays
810p Colorado +156 2x
815p Cincinnati +181 2x

I was about to drop the triple hammer on the CHC/ATL over, especially after checking Wagerline.



But then I got really confused when I checked SIA and Sportsbook, which are both full of squares.




I don't fully understand this. The number looks like it is screaming for under action with Zambrano and Jurrjens on the hill. Whatever. I'm in a deep enough hole I can pass this and sleep well tonight.

Streak for the Cash
7p Atlanta vs. Chicago
Current Streak: 1

Unless somebody can find some MLL lines, this is the only worthwhile play tonight.

Thursday 6/4 - AM

Plays
1205p Pittsburgh +106 2x
205p Oakland +154 2x
405p Kansas City +155 2x

Thought about the Tribe as well.

Leans
710p ATL (Jurrjens) -127 vs. CHC (Zambrano)
805p COL (Hammel) +150 @ HOU (Rodriguez)
815p CIN (Harang) +172 @ STL (Carpenter)

The Reds are the most likely of those three. It won't matter because they are all going to get shutout.

Streak for the Cash
930a S. Stoser/S. Kuznetsova 2 Sets
1241p T. Woods (win or draw) over Els/Johnson
Current Streak: 1

If I did the math correctly, straight sets has a 65.7% JA adjusted shot of hitting. I used Pinny's set odds to come up with it. Later, I'll take Tiger w/d vs. Els/Johnson. Tiger is -140 at The Greek to begin with and The Streakmaster is giving ties to Tiger.

Wednesday 6/3

Stupid Dutch.

Plays
705p Kansas City +140 2x
810p Oakland +128 2x
815p Cincinnati +118 2x
1010p Arizona +187 2x
1010p Baltimore +120 2x

Arguments could be made for Oakland and Arizona to be triples.

Leans
1235p PIT (Ohlendorf) +100 vs. NYM (Pelfrey)
1235p TOR (Tallet) --105 vs. LAA (Lackey)
105p DET (Willis) +119 vs. BOS (Wakefield)
205p OAK (Anderson) +149 @ CHW (Buehrle)

Streak for the Cash
1010p Yes - Ichiro extends Streak
Current Streak: 1

Ichiro will be the backup play every night from here until it loses unless I find something else interesting along the way. See here for more explanation.

Leans 6/3

I went to bed last night happy because I was 2-0 on the night after showing a profit on Monday. Never be happy as a gambler, because then things like this happen:


I suppose that's just the way baseball is going to be.

Leans
705p PIT (Ohlendorf) +106 @ NYM (Pelfrey)
705p TEX (Feldman) +161 @ NYY (Pettitte)
705p KC (Bannister) +134 @ TB (Niemann)
710p ATL (Lowe) -130 vs. CHC (Lilly)
810p OAK (Outman) +120 @ CHW (Richard)
815p CIN (Cueto) +122 @ STL (Lohse)
1005p SD (Young) -112 vs. PHL (Cueto)
1010p ARZ (Garland) +180 @ LAD (Billingsley)
1010p BAL (Bergsen) +113 @ SEA (Vargas)

Regardless of last night's post, Oakland stood out to me this morning.

Streak for the Cash
8a S. Kuznetsova over S. Williams
Current Streak: 0

The Ruskie is a very small dog to Serena, but you have to imagine Serena's line is inflated. I went with this instead of the Federer under, which is marginally better, because I want to play something this afternoon (which will be NED w/d) and don't want to get burned like I did yesterday.

Am I Getting Value?

The short answer, I think, is yes, mostly. The chart below illustrates that.




The column labeled "Avg Juice" takes the total amount of money I would have won on each team divided by the amount risked. The next two columns are each team's third order wins and losses. The penultimate column is third order winning percentage and the last column converts that winning percentage into Vegas Odds. In the last column, green means I have been consistently getting better odds than the third order record would suggest, while red is the opposite. (UPDATE: Per request, I put my +/- units in the last column) I only looked at teams I've bet on more than 5 times, and I didn't control for statistical significance in the color coding.

What I find most interesting is that three of the four teams that have taken most of my money are the teams that I haven't been getting better than third order juice on my wagers (with statistical significance issues lingering, particularly with Washington). My initial inclination was that these teams were underperforming, and that I would have at least been getting value recently as their juice should have increased. To test this, I looked at the time series of Washington's juice over the season. The trend was not significant. Same with Oakland.

I'm not entirely sure what this means, other than I have likely been betting on Washington (n=34) and Oakland (n=25) too much, when they don't actually have value. Of course, my other bets are not necessarily +EV because I didn't look at pitching matchups, etc. Particularly because of pitching matchups, I would expect a positive bias to these results, since in Contrarianville, we often bet on the "wrong" side of pitching mismatches. Still, overall, I'm happy with these results.

(UPDATE2: Going off ilike#s comment, here are two graphs comparing the "value" and my unit profit. They show a weak positive correlation.)

Tuesday 6/2

Thank you, Andy Murray, for not only losing, but doing so in enough time that I couldn't play the soccer prop this afternoon. Even though I would have lost the afternoon prop, I like scoreboard watching.

Plays
705p Pittsburgh +141 2x
705p LAA/TOR o8 +112 2x
810p Cleveland +163 2x
1005p PHL/SD u7.5 -116 2x
1010p Arizona +113 2x

I'm passing Washington, even though the consensus data is there. It's probably -EV and definitely square, but I can't handle that flipping team at the moment and sometimes sanity is more important than value.

Streak for the Cash
8p Florida vs. Washington
Current Streak: 0

None of the 7p games interest me, so I'm going with biggest chalk.

Leans 6/2

Don't be fooled, today's card isn't nearly as good as yesterday's.

Leans
705p PIT (Duke) +150 vs. NYM (Santana)
705p WAS (Stammen) +141 vs. SF (Lincecum)
705p DET (Porcello) -137 vs. BOS (Matsuzaka)
805p COL (Jimenez) -130 @ HOU (Paulino)
810p CLE (Huff) +153 @ MIN (Slowey)
1005p SD (Peavy) -170 vs. PHL (Bastardo)
1010p ARZ (Haren) +108 @ LAD (Wolf)
1010p BAL (Hernandez) +136 @ SEA (Bedard)

Streak for the Cash
915a A. Murray over F. Gonzalez (French Open)
Current Streak: 0

I might as well go with Turkey LMV in the soccer prop later, with my streak at no better than W1.

Monday 6/1

I'd been forgetting about reverse line movement for a while. I remembered it today and used it to help pare the card down.

Plays
705p Pittsburgh +100 3x
805p Colorado +124 2x
810p OAK/CHW o9 +109 2x
1010p Arizona +155 3x

The Buccos and Rizo would have been 3x plays anyway. It's been some time since I've seen Wagerline numbers like that.

Streak for the Cash
8p Florida vs. Washington
Current Streak: 0

Woo, WCWS. It's been responsible for the last four Streak victories.

Where the Value Lies - Week 9

Surprise, surprise, the Natinals are the most underrated team again this week. Sooner or later, they are going to start playing 43% ball. Wikipedia says so. I'm considering doing everyone a favor and putting the Nats on the DNP list. At least that way everyone else can benefit when they immediately start winning.

These are deviations from third-order record through Saturday May 30th. Current deviations can be found here.

Underrated
Nationals -7.6
Indians -5.3
Rays -3.6
Rockies -3.2
Astros -2.3

Overrated
Rangers +3.9
Brewers +3.8
Phillies +3.4
Dodgers +3.0
Mariners +2.6

Using this method of evaluating teams, nothing sticks out as obvious plays early next week (other than the usual suspects). However, for the weekend, Rays/Yankees, Tribe/Sox, Twins/M's, Nats/Mets, and Rox/Cards all stand out as potential plays.

Leans 6/1

Thank God the Nationals have the day off.

Leans
705p PIT (Snell) +102 vs. NYM (Hernandez)
705p CLE (Sowers) +147 vs. NYY (Chamberlain)
805p COL (Cook) +131 @ HOU (Oswalt)
810p OAK (Cahill) +136 @ CHW (Colon)
815p CIN (Volquez) +110 @ STL (Wellemeyer)
1005p SD (Correia) +107 vs. PHL (Blanton)
1010p AZ (Buckner) +169 @ LAD (Kuroda)

Or basically the entire card. Hopefully, this gets knocked down a bit by this evening.

Streak for the Cash
Pass
Current Streak: 6

There is no point in playing either afternoon coin flip at W6. I'll probably be on Florida tonight.