I should have guessed after having a good week last week, I would start this one down 8.8x. At least I won't lose any other money this weekend.
Plays
705p Washington +107 3x
805p Arizona -103 2x
1010p San Diego +143 2x
The Saw brought up a good point this afternoon. Most people don't know a whole lot about the pitchers tonight. I only knew them in passing, certainly not enough to influence my bet. Geer was projected to have a bit better year and has better peripherals, but McDonald gets run support from the Dodgers. It's not like this influenced my decision any, but it was nice to know.
Leans
I don't have enough knowledge/confidence in huge baseball spreads yet, but doesn't that CHC -266 look like it's asking for action on the Fish?
Streak for the Cash
705p Chicago vs. Boston
Current Streak: 3
I'll take the three points. Hell, if I played the NBA, I would actually play the Bulls tonight. I'll be on the Blazer/Rocket under as well, if I can stay up, unlike the last two nights.
The Bulls game isn't going to be over in time. Lean is to Padres' runs in the late prop, but I'm just passing.
Good luck tonight.
Leans 4/30
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 4
Another fantastic night last night in bases that didn't have to be. Cleveland's bullpen is really starting to get to me.
Oh, and I'm still soliciting pony advice.
Leans
705p WAS (Cabrera) +113 vs. STL (Boggs)
1010p SD (Geer) +135 @ LAD (McDonald)
The early line tells me a lot about what the books think about the Cards.
Streak for the Cash
740a R. Goosen lower score than A. Cabrera (Quail Hollow - Front 9)
1250a P. Mickelson lower score than A. Kim (Quail Hollow)
Current Streak: 2
I didn't even consult the Saw on this one. Goosen used to be a big name, but Cabrera is just coming off a Masters win. 99% of the time, some book out there is offering the prop that ESPN puts up, and there is a near zero chance that a book put this line out there looking for Goosen action.
For the rest of the day, both soccer matches and the baseball games are coin flips as best I can tell. I imagine I'll be on Kim later, but I'll check with the Saw before proceeding.
Oh, and I'm still soliciting pony advice.
Leans
705p WAS (Cabrera) +113 vs. STL (Boggs)
1010p SD (Geer) +135 @ LAD (McDonald)
The early line tells me a lot about what the books think about the Cards.
Streak for the Cash
740a R. Goosen lower score than A. Cabrera (Quail Hollow - Front 9)
1250a P. Mickelson lower score than A. Kim (Quail Hollow)
Current Streak: 2
I didn't even consult the Saw on this one. Goosen used to be a big name, but Cabrera is just coming off a Masters win. 99% of the time, some book out there is offering the prop that ESPN puts up, and there is a near zero chance that a book put this line out there looking for Goosen action.
For the rest of the day, both soccer matches and the baseball games are coin flips as best I can tell. I imagine I'll be on Kim later, but I'll check with the Saw before proceeding.
Horse Racing 101
,
Labels:
errata,
fiscal responsibility,
i'm a square,
leans,
waste of money
For the first time in my gambling career, I am going to place some wagers this Saturday at an OTB. I know nothing about horses or how they are raced. I do know that a higher Beyer Speed Rating is better, but I don't know how to use it quantitatively, if at all. I am not a handicapper.
What I do know is this: there is a known bias in parimutuel betting. It is known as the favorite-longshot bias. Essentially, horse gamblers are bigger degenerates than sports gamblers. They like the satisfaction of being able to pick the longshot, and hence the heavy dogs became overvalued. Before tracks started taking such a large rake out of the prize pool, this meant that betting on favorites was likely a positive EV outcome. I'm not sure there is currently a positive EV outcome at the track anymore, but I'd like to wager as intelligently as possible.
Again, remembering that I know nothing about horse racing, I'm going to go through a couple of examples of the way I intend to bet on Saturday, with about $50 wagered as the goal. Remember, the idea is to maximize wagers on favorites.
Example 1
Eleven horse field
#2 - 2/1
#4 - 5/1
#10 - 8/1
No other horse shorter than 13/1
The way I intend to bet: $2 box 2-all ($40), $2 box 2-4,10 ($8), $2 box 4-10 ($4) = total $52
Example 2
Nine horse field
#1 - 2/1
#5 - 3/1
No other horse shorter than 10/1
The way I intend to bet: $5 box 1-5 ($10), $2 tribox 1,5-1,5-all ($28), $1 tribox 1,5-all-1,5 ($14) = total $52
Example 3
Ten horse Field
#3 - 2/3
#9 - 8/1
No other horse shorter than 15/1
The way I intend to bet: $10 Win 3 ($10), $5 box 3-9 ($10), $2 box 3-all ($36) = total $56
Example 4 - Kentucky Derby
Twenty horse field
#6 - 5/1
#13 - 3/1
#15 - 4/1
#16 - 4/1
No other horse shorter than 15/1
The way I intend to bet: $2 box 6,13,15,16 ($24), $1 tribox 6,13,15,16 ($24) = total $48
Current juice for the Derby sits at 37%. Those are solid bets.
Obviously, my two goals are going to be: get down on favorites and bet races on the simulcast that have a few big favorites and the rest of the field sucks. If I assume that the posted odds will attract people to longshots, this seems like a reasonable strategy.
Any horse betters out there care to weigh in?
What I do know is this: there is a known bias in parimutuel betting. It is known as the favorite-longshot bias. Essentially, horse gamblers are bigger degenerates than sports gamblers. They like the satisfaction of being able to pick the longshot, and hence the heavy dogs became overvalued. Before tracks started taking such a large rake out of the prize pool, this meant that betting on favorites was likely a positive EV outcome. I'm not sure there is currently a positive EV outcome at the track anymore, but I'd like to wager as intelligently as possible.
Again, remembering that I know nothing about horse racing, I'm going to go through a couple of examples of the way I intend to bet on Saturday, with about $50 wagered as the goal. Remember, the idea is to maximize wagers on favorites.
Example 1
Eleven horse field
#2 - 2/1
#4 - 5/1
#10 - 8/1
No other horse shorter than 13/1
The way I intend to bet: $2 box 2-all ($40), $2 box 2-4,10 ($8), $2 box 4-10 ($4) = total $52
Example 2
Nine horse field
#1 - 2/1
#5 - 3/1
No other horse shorter than 10/1
The way I intend to bet: $5 box 1-5 ($10), $2 tribox 1,5-1,5-all ($28), $1 tribox 1,5-all-1,5 ($14) = total $52
Example 3
Ten horse Field
#3 - 2/3
#9 - 8/1
No other horse shorter than 15/1
The way I intend to bet: $10 Win 3 ($10), $5 box 3-9 ($10), $2 box 3-all ($36) = total $56
Example 4 - Kentucky Derby
Twenty horse field
#6 - 5/1
#13 - 3/1
#15 - 4/1
#16 - 4/1
No other horse shorter than 15/1
The way I intend to bet: $2 box 6,13,15,16 ($24), $1 tribox 6,13,15,16 ($24) = total $48
Current juice for the Derby sits at 37%. Those are solid bets.
Obviously, my two goals are going to be: get down on favorites and bet races on the simulcast that have a few big favorites and the rest of the field sucks. If I assume that the posted odds will attract people to longshots, this seems like a reasonable strategy.
Any horse betters out there care to weigh in?
Wednesday 4/29
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 4,
plays
I still have no idea exactly how to play these totals. Obviously, that arbitrary cutoff system wasn't working in college hoops, but I'm also not sure how to thinly slice them. That said, 15% at SIA probably makes the cut.
Plays
705p Washington +167 2x
705p Cleveland +123 2x
710p Atlanta -111 2x
805p OAK/TEX u10.5 +114 2x
None of those three moneyline wagers should be much of a surprise given their opponents.
Leans
210p KC (Davies) -132 vs. TOR (Burres)
I think this would be my first fade of the juggernaut that is the Toronto Blue Jays.
Streak for the Cash
710p Atlanta vs. St. Louis
Current Streak: 0
Might as well double down on the short favorite. I'm probably going to play the over in the late NBA game, but it's pretty close to a coin flip.
Good luck tonight.
Plays
705p Washington +167 2x
705p Cleveland +123 2x
710p Atlanta -111 2x
805p OAK/TEX u10.5 +114 2x
None of those three moneyline wagers should be much of a surprise given their opponents.
Leans
210p KC (Davies) -132 vs. TOR (Burres)
I think this would be my first fade of the juggernaut that is the Toronto Blue Jays.
Streak for the Cash
710p Atlanta vs. St. Louis
Current Streak: 0
Might as well double down on the short favorite. I'm probably going to play the over in the late NBA game, but it's pretty close to a coin flip.
Good luck tonight.
Leans 4/29
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 4
That was a nice reaming last night.
Plays
Pass: Seattle
The Wagerline numbers moved significantly from last night, plus I didn't really feel comfortable backing the M's anyway, with Bedard on the mound and a better record than CHW.
Leans
7p ATL (Vazquez) -112 vs. STL (Wainwright)
705p WAS (Olsen) +166 @ PHL (Myers)
705p CLE (Carmona) +144 vs. BOS (Lester)
The Natinals are now 4-15. On one hand, their lines are definitely getting longer. Of course, on the other, squares are starting to go "Free money, bro," against the Nats everyday, so we keep playing them. Which is in no way altering my otherwise sunny disposition.
Streak for the Cash
1235p Baltimore vs. Angels
Current Streak: 0
The O's are a better pick than either the more innings prop or the soccer game. It also allows me to probably get on the 340p Cubs/DBacks game, if I choose. Which I might actually pass. Lean is to Rizo.
Good luck today.
---------------------------------
In a completely unrelated story, if sports radio and ESPN are completely ruined this whole summer by this lying, manipulative jerk, I am going to be a very unhappy person.
Plays
Pass: Seattle
The Wagerline numbers moved significantly from last night, plus I didn't really feel comfortable backing the M's anyway, with Bedard on the mound and a better record than CHW.
Leans
7p ATL (Vazquez) -112 vs. STL (Wainwright)
705p WAS (Olsen) +166 @ PHL (Myers)
705p CLE (Carmona) +144 vs. BOS (Lester)
The Natinals are now 4-15. On one hand, their lines are definitely getting longer. Of course, on the other, squares are starting to go "Free money, bro," against the Nats everyday, so we keep playing them. Which is in no way altering my otherwise sunny disposition.
Streak for the Cash
1235p Baltimore vs. Angels
Current Streak: 0
The O's are a better pick than either the more innings prop or the soccer game. It also allows me to probably get on the 340p Cubs/DBacks game, if I choose. Which I might actually pass. Lean is to Rizo.
Good luck today.
---------------------------------
In a completely unrelated story, if sports radio and ESPN are completely ruined this whole summer by this lying, manipulative jerk, I am going to be a very unhappy person.
Tuesday 4/28
,
Labels:
mlb week 4,
plays
Well, Seattle (Game 1) clearly became a play, but the wonderful Borough of State College Parking Office required my attention before I could get it in.
Plays
705p Washington +174 2x
705p Cleveland -104 2x
705p Baltimore +117 2x
805p Oakland +132 2x
940p Arizona +110 3x
1015p San Francisco +152 2x
Pass: Atlanta
That line against Zambrano seemed like a public bait line to me.
Leans
205p SEA (Bedard) -118 vs. CHW (Floyd)
Isn't Eric Bedard good again this year? At least until he gets hurt? And it's not like the Mariners suck. What am I missing here?
Streak for the Cash
705p Rangers +1.5 vs. Washington
940p Portland larger margin of victory than San Antonio
Current Streak: 2
Does ESPN think Streak is less gambling related if they don't put point spreads on the games? In any case, the Rangers +1.5 are -137 at Pinny while the Devils ML is -140. Those are the only two options on the early card. I haven't decided on anything for late, but I wanted to give myself the option, which is why I went with New York.
Portland is a marginal play that I am making based on juice movement at Pinny and because I at least have a reason for it, which I don't for taking Billingsley.
Plays
705p Washington +174 2x
705p Cleveland -104 2x
705p Baltimore +117 2x
805p Oakland +132 2x
940p Arizona +110 3x
1015p San Francisco +152 2x
Pass: Atlanta
That line against Zambrano seemed like a public bait line to me.
Leans
205p SEA (Bedard) -118 vs. CHW (Floyd)
Isn't Eric Bedard good again this year? At least until he gets hurt? And it's not like the Mariners suck. What am I missing here?
Streak for the Cash
705p Rangers +1.5 vs. Washington
940p Portland larger margin of victory than San Antonio
Current Streak: 2
Does ESPN think Streak is less gambling related if they don't put point spreads on the games? In any case, the Rangers +1.5 are -137 at Pinny while the Devils ML is -140. Those are the only two options on the early card. I haven't decided on anything for late, but I wanted to give myself the option, which is why I went with New York.
Portland is a marginal play that I am making based on juice movement at Pinny and because I at least have a reason for it, which I don't for taking Billingsley.
Leans 4/28
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 4
Really, Washington?
Note the timestamp. Not that it was particularly prescient. The Natinals bullpen has been flipping us all season. Can't wait to back them again tonight.
Leans
705p WAS (Lannan) +170 @ PHL (Hamels)
705p CLE (Reyes) +100 vs. BOS (Penny)
705p BAL (Eaton) +110 vs. LAA (Saunders)
710p ATL (Reyes) -102 vs. STL (Lohse)
710p HOU (Rodriguez) +105 @ CIN (Harang)
805p OAK (Anderson) +135 @ TEX (Millwood)
940p ARZ (Petit) +118 vs. CHC (Zambrano)
1015p SF (Sanchez) +151 vs. LAD (Billinsgley)
Again, I think I'm the only one not thrilled with this card, although I think it is better yesterday, with some marginally bad pitchers on short lines. Nats, Tribe, DBacks, and Giants are initially bigger leans.
Streak for the Cash
7a S. Bolelli over P. Kohlschriber (Tennis)
3p Barcelona (win only) vs. Chelsea
Current Streak: 0
Bolelli is favored -135/+125. I have no idea why Sportsnation would be taking the German (other than he was made in Germany, and Germans always make good stuff). Unless something changes, hopefully broadcast either in the comments here or over at RMMB, I'll be on Barcelona for the soccer game later.
Good luck.
Note the timestamp. Not that it was particularly prescient. The Natinals bullpen has been flipping us all season. Can't wait to back them again tonight.
Leans
705p WAS (Lannan) +170 @ PHL (Hamels)
705p CLE (Reyes) +100 vs. BOS (Penny)
705p BAL (Eaton) +110 vs. LAA (Saunders)
710p ATL (Reyes) -102 vs. STL (Lohse)
710p HOU (Rodriguez) +105 @ CIN (Harang)
805p OAK (Anderson) +135 @ TEX (Millwood)
940p ARZ (Petit) +118 vs. CHC (Zambrano)
1015p SF (Sanchez) +151 vs. LAD (Billinsgley)
Again, I think I'm the only one not thrilled with this card, although I think it is better yesterday, with some marginally bad pitchers on short lines. Nats, Tribe, DBacks, and Giants are initially bigger leans.
Streak for the Cash
7a S. Bolelli over P. Kohlschriber (Tennis)
3p Barcelona (win only) vs. Chelsea
Current Streak: 0
Bolelli is favored -135/+125. I have no idea why Sportsnation would be taking the German (other than he was made in Germany, and Germans always make good stuff). Unless something changes, hopefully broadcast either in the comments here or over at RMMB, I'll be on Barcelona for the soccer game later.
Good luck.
Monday 4/27
,
Labels:
mlb week 4,
plays
Given my level of baseball knowledge in relation to the rest of Contrarianville, I assume that I am being entirely too tight tonight. That said, I'm not nearly as impressed with this card as some people are.
Plays
705p Washington +173 2x
705p Cleveland -121 2x
705p NYY/DET u9 +104 2x
940p Arizona -146 2x
Even though I don't like laying chalk, especially on moneylines, these two are about as anti-pub as I've seen so far in bases (small sample size, obviously). I'm not sure if it's a good thing or a bad thing that I'm backing last year's Cy Young winner and a guy that arguably could have won it two years ago.
There are no day games tomorrow, again, so no thinking tonight. Yay.
Streak for the Cash
7p Atlanta vs. St. Louis
Current Streak: 0
I don't feel real confident about this one, but sooner or later the Cards should stop mashing, at least at their current rate. Leaning Dodgers late, unless someone who knows something about the NBA can tell me if the 12 points the Lakers are favored by are statistically significantly different than the 10.7 apg Deron Williams averages.
Good luck tonight.
Plays
705p Washington +173 2x
705p Cleveland -121 2x
705p NYY/DET u9 +104 2x
940p Arizona -146 2x
Even though I don't like laying chalk, especially on moneylines, these two are about as anti-pub as I've seen so far in bases (small sample size, obviously). I'm not sure if it's a good thing or a bad thing that I'm backing last year's Cy Young winner and a guy that arguably could have won it two years ago.
There are no day games tomorrow, again, so no thinking tonight. Yay.
Streak for the Cash
7p Atlanta vs. St. Louis
Current Streak: 0
I don't feel real confident about this one, but sooner or later the Cards should stop mashing, at least at their current rate. Leaning Dodgers late, unless someone who knows something about the NBA can tell me if the 12 points the Lakers are favored by are statistically significantly different than the 10.7 apg Deron Williams averages.
Good luck tonight.
Leans 4/27
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 4
That was hopefully the last weekend I'm gone until the end of June. Don't people realize getting married interferes with my internet gambling world?
Leans
705p WAS (Martis) +158 @ PHL (Blanton)
705p CLE (Lee) -109 vs. BOS (Wakefield)
705p NYY (Sabathia)/DET (Verlander) u9.5
940p ARZ (Haren) -132 vs. CHC (Lilly)
1015p SF (Zito) +120 vs. LAD (Wolf)
Wakefield has to become human again at some point, right? That under seems a bit too obvious to me, although I guess Verlander is pitching better than his W-L and ERA suggest and Sabathia has been lit up a few times already.
Streak for the Cash
7a Australia vs. Pakistan (Cricket)
Current Streak: 3
Bodog has this set at -180/+140, so Australia's JA probability is somewhere north of 60%. Ordinarily, I would be concerned with the game lasting so long, but with only an EPL coin flip this afternoon, there is nothing worth playing until tonight.
Leans
705p WAS (Martis) +158 @ PHL (Blanton)
705p CLE (Lee) -109 vs. BOS (Wakefield)
705p NYY (Sabathia)/DET (Verlander) u9.5
940p ARZ (Haren) -132 vs. CHC (Lilly)
1015p SF (Zito) +120 vs. LAD (Wolf)
Wakefield has to become human again at some point, right? That under seems a bit too obvious to me, although I guess Verlander is pitching better than his W-L and ERA suggest and Sabathia has been lit up a few times already.
Streak for the Cash
7a Australia vs. Pakistan (Cricket)
Current Streak: 3
Bodog has this set at -180/+140, so Australia's JA probability is somewhere north of 60%. Ordinarily, I would be concerned with the game lasting so long, but with only an EPL coin flip this afternoon, there is nothing worth playing until tonight.
Record Update - 26 April 2009
,
Labels:
in review,
mlb week 3
Nothing to complain about this week at all. I realize this is totally normal, but it's still weird to be six games under .500 and up more than 14x.
There are no early games tomorrow, so no need for any leans here. Good luck if you're playing anything.
There are no early games tomorrow, so no need for any leans here. Good luck if you're playing anything.
Friday 4/24
,
Labels:
mlb week 3,
plays
Time to give away all of the week's profits.
Plays
705p TEX/BAL u10.5 +104 2x
710p Washington +238 2x
710p Philadelphia +118 2x
910p Colorado -108 2x
940p ARZ/SF o8.5 +104 2x
I was not expecting to play the World Champions until at least May. I find it amusing a day after I read this blog entry describing how Texas and Baltimore can't pitch, I end up on an under involving both teams.
I'll be gone until Sunday evening. I definitely won't place any wagers. I might have a chance to get some Streak plays in, but I doubt it.
Good luck this weekend.
Plays
705p TEX/BAL u10.5 +104 2x
710p Washington +238 2x
710p Philadelphia +118 2x
910p Colorado -108 2x
940p ARZ/SF o8.5 +104 2x
I was not expecting to play the World Champions until at least May. I find it amusing a day after I read this blog entry describing how Texas and Baltimore can't pitch, I end up on an under involving both teams.
I'll be gone until Sunday evening. I definitely won't place any wagers. I might have a chance to get some Streak plays in, but I doubt it.
Good luck this weekend.
Thursday 4/23 - PM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 3,
plays
I not happy that I accidentally jinxed myself this morning by putting Marino in green before the match up even happened.
Plays
805p Houston +117 3x
I convinced myself at work today that the Astros should be a 3x play, erroneously, no doubt. I'm probably mindflipping myself trying to figure out how the oddsmakers came up with +117, but it just seems so off looking at the two teams' offenses and the starting pitchers.
EDIT: Glad to see I'm not the only one.
Leans
710p WAS (Olsen) +240 @ NYM (Santana)
910p COL (Cook) +102 vs. LAD (Stults)
1005p SD (Correia) -124 vs. PIT (Snell)
1005p OAK (Cahill) +112 vs. TB (Kazmir)
Maybe more depending on how consensus data checks out tomorrow morning.
Streak for the Cash
8p Chicago vs. Boston
Current Streak: 0
The Bulls are a no brainer. Late night, I guess I'll take the Spazz if I can stay up that late, though that is unlikely.
Plays
805p Houston +117 3x
I convinced myself at work today that the Astros should be a 3x play, erroneously, no doubt. I'm probably mindflipping myself trying to figure out how the oddsmakers came up with +117, but it just seems so off looking at the two teams' offenses and the starting pitchers.
EDIT: Glad to see I'm not the only one.
Leans
710p WAS (Olsen) +240 @ NYM (Santana)
910p COL (Cook) +102 vs. LAD (Stults)
1005p SD (Correia) -124 vs. PIT (Snell)
1005p OAK (Cahill) +112 vs. TB (Kazmir)
Maybe more depending on how consensus data checks out tomorrow morning.
Streak for the Cash
8p Chicago vs. Boston
Current Streak: 0
The Bulls are a no brainer. Late night, I guess I'll take the Spazz if I can stay up that late, though that is unlikely.
Thursday 4/23 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 3,
plays
It looks like ESPN is running a potentially cool Streak promotion for the NFL Draft. They'll be running 15-20 props to pick during the first two rounds Saturday night. I'd like to have fun with it, potentially with live blog, but I'll be away for the weekend. I'll have all of my plays in for tomorrow in the morning and then you won't see me until Sunday evening.
I promise I won't make up strategic reasons for being lazy while I'm gone.
Plays
220p Cincinnati +152 2x
Pass: Milwaukee
Matchbook is down this morning, as are the mirrors. TheFiancee will have to put this in later this morning and hopefully you'll trust me when I update the juice after work.
Leans
805p HOU (Rodriguez) +113 vs. LAD (Billingsley)
That line seems... off? I get that the Astros starting pitching has been hot lately, and Wandy does does have a 2.76 FIP with good walk and strikeout ratios, but he also has a BABIP of .236 and a LOB% of 80. And it's not like Billingsley is a slouch. Dude is 3-0 and with good peripherals and was projected to be better this year. Throw that in with the runs/game stat from the offenses and I'm confused. I'm sure my small baseball brain is missing something.
Streak for the Cash
936a S. Marino over R. Beem (Zurich Classic)
245p Sampdoria +1.5 vs. Inter Milan (Coppa Italia)
Current Streak: 1
All the golf guys bet on Marino a lot. They never bet on fluke major winners.
I'll be awaiting guidance of The Saw or ML on the afternoon golf match, but I assume Perry is the way to go. The afternoon soccer match is interesting. I still have no idea how to read these Asian lines as it relates to probability (Inter is -1 and -1.5 -121 at Pinny). However, at The Greek, Inter is -1.5 +109 and Sampo is -133, which I guess should give Sampo the edge. Jury is out on the afternoon play.
Good luck.
I promise I won't make up strategic reasons for being lazy while I'm gone.
Plays
220p Cincinnati +152 2x
Pass: Milwaukee
Matchbook is down this morning, as are the mirrors. TheFiancee will have to put this in later this morning and hopefully you'll trust me when I update the juice after work.
Leans
805p HOU (Rodriguez) +113 vs. LAD (Billingsley)
That line seems... off? I get that the Astros starting pitching has been hot lately, and Wandy does does have a 2.76 FIP with good walk and strikeout ratios, but he also has a BABIP of .236 and a LOB% of 80. And it's not like Billingsley is a slouch. Dude is 3-0 and with good peripherals and was projected to be better this year. Throw that in with the runs/game stat from the offenses and I'm confused. I'm sure my small baseball brain is missing something.
Streak for the Cash
936a S. Marino over R. Beem (Zurich Classic)
245p Sampdoria +1.5 vs. Inter Milan (Coppa Italia)
Current Streak: 1
All the golf guys bet on Marino a lot. They never bet on fluke major winners.
I'll be awaiting guidance of The Saw or ML on the afternoon golf match, but I assume Perry is the way to go. The afternoon soccer match is interesting. I still have no idea how to read these Asian lines as it relates to probability (Inter is -1 and -1.5 -121 at Pinny). However, at The Greek, Inter is -1.5 +109 and Sampo is -133, which I guess should give Sampo the edge. Jury is out on the afternoon play.
Good luck.
Wednesday 4/22
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 3,
plays
I am shocked - SHOCKED - that something Accuweather put out could possibly be based on hype and not science. As I said to Adam last night, the main factor for Yankee Stadium being Coors East is likely small sample size (and possibly homers overall being hit farther). That's not to say weather isn't playing a role, as the article showed, it likely is, but not due to the aerodynamics of the new park like Accuweather put out.
Plays
705p Washington +125 2x
805p Cincinnati +156 2x
805p Houston -113 2x
1005p Detroit +100 3x
That Houston line is showing Oswalt a ton of respect (or a complete lack thereof for Wolf). The Dodgers have scored the third most runs per game in the majors, while Houston has scored the least.
Leans
105p MIL (Bush) +147 @ PHL (Hamels)
220p CIN (Harang) +151 @ CHC (Zambrano)
Tomorrow's card does not look particularly enticing, either early or late.
Streak for the Cash
805p Houston vs. Los Angeles
Current Streak: 3
There really aren't a whole lot of great picks in Streak tonight, so why not double down. The Astros, obviously, are a slightly larger favorite than Detroit.
Good luck tonight.
Plays
705p Washington +125 2x
805p Cincinnati +156 2x
805p Houston -113 2x
1005p Detroit +100 3x
That Houston line is showing Oswalt a ton of respect (or a complete lack thereof for Wolf). The Dodgers have scored the third most runs per game in the majors, while Houston has scored the least.
Leans
105p MIL (Bush) +147 @ PHL (Hamels)
220p CIN (Harang) +151 @ CHC (Zambrano)
Tomorrow's card does not look particularly enticing, either early or late.
Streak for the Cash
805p Houston vs. Los Angeles
Current Streak: 3
There really aren't a whole lot of great picks in Streak tonight, so why not double down. The Astros, obviously, are a slightly larger favorite than Detroit.
Good luck tonight.
Leans 4/22
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 3
Somehow, the Natinals bullpen managed to hold onto a lead last night. I can only assume this means they'll blow a five run lead tonight in some ungodly fashion.
Plays
Passes: Oakland, Pittsburgh
I didn't feel real comfortable with any of these early plays at first glance this morning. I'm still hesitant to buy off of on contrariany chalk early in the season.
Leans
705p MIL (Looper) +120 @ PHL (Blanton)
705p WAS (Lannan) +121 vs. ATL (Jurrjens)
805p CIN (Cueto) +154 @ CHC (Lilly)
805p HOU (Oswalt) -115 vs. LAD (Wolf)
1005p DET (Verlander) +103 @ LAA (Saunders)
I don't know about the rest of these, but Detroit is almost certainly going to be a 3xer. Partially a fade of Saunders and partially Verlander is underrated.
Streak for the Cash
230p Werder Bremen (win or draw) @ Hamburg SV (German Cup)
Current Streak: 2
I would not have had a problem backing Maholm early, but Werder has a JA 62.2% chance of winning or getting the tie. The argument could be made that being able to play two afternoon games is more valuable at my low streak. I'm not sure which is right.
Plays
Passes: Oakland, Pittsburgh
I didn't feel real comfortable with any of these early plays at first glance this morning. I'm still hesitant to buy off of on contrariany chalk early in the season.
Leans
705p MIL (Looper) +120 @ PHL (Blanton)
705p WAS (Lannan) +121 vs. ATL (Jurrjens)
805p CIN (Cueto) +154 @ CHC (Lilly)
805p HOU (Oswalt) -115 vs. LAD (Wolf)
1005p DET (Verlander) +103 @ LAA (Saunders)
I don't know about the rest of these, but Detroit is almost certainly going to be a 3xer. Partially a fade of Saunders and partially Verlander is underrated.
Streak for the Cash
230p Werder Bremen (win or draw) @ Hamburg SV (German Cup)
Current Streak: 2
I would not have had a problem backing Maholm early, but Werder has a JA 62.2% chance of winning or getting the tie. The argument could be made that being able to play two afternoon games is more valuable at my low streak. I'm not sure which is right.
Tuesday 4/21
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 3,
plays
I really need to start writing my ideas down at work. I was thinking about something gambling related then started doing, you know, actual work and completely forgot about it.
Plays
705p Pittsburgh +134 2x
705p Washington +120 2x
705p Milwaukee +119 2x
705p Oakland +188 2x
705p Minnesota +153 2x
805p Houston +158 2x
Pass: Baltimore
Let's be honest. Two-and-four would be considered a good night with these gems out there.
Leans
1235p PIT (Maholm) +100 vs. FLA (Nolasco)
105p OAK (Anderson) +240 vs. NYY (Sabathia)
345p SF (Zito) +108 vs. SD (Young)
Here is how little I know about baseball: are there usually more National League day games than American League? I don't have any evidence to back this up, it just seems empirically through 16 days, there have been more NL afternooners.
Streak for the Cash
705p Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh
1030p San Jose @ Anaheim
Current Streak: 1
I'll be on the Sharks late.
Good luck tonight.
Plays
705p Pittsburgh +134 2x
705p Washington +120 2x
705p Milwaukee +119 2x
705p Oakland +188 2x
705p Minnesota +153 2x
805p Houston +158 2x
Pass: Baltimore
Let's be honest. Two-and-four would be considered a good night with these gems out there.
Leans
1235p PIT (Maholm) +100 vs. FLA (Nolasco)
105p OAK (Anderson) +240 vs. NYY (Sabathia)
345p SF (Zito) +108 vs. SD (Young)
Here is how little I know about baseball: are there usually more National League day games than American League? I don't have any evidence to back this up, it just seems empirically through 16 days, there have been more NL afternooners.
Streak for the Cash
705p Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh
1030p San Jose @ Anaheim
Current Streak: 1
I'll be on the Sharks late.
Good luck tonight.
Leans 4/21
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 3
The Nationals won. Shockingly, as I look at the box score, the bullpen held onto a late inning, one run lead. Maybe the moves yesterday motivated them.
Leans
705p PIT (Karstens) +113 vs. FLA (Sanchez)
705p WAS (Martis) +115 vs. ATL (Kawakami)
705p MIN (Baker) +151 @ BOS (Wakefield)
805p HOU (Ortiz) +146 vs. LAD (Kershaw)
1005p SF (Cain) +109 vs. SD (Peavy)
Of course, it's another day sweating the Natinals. Minny is a Wakefield fade. Everyone remembers he almost no hit the A's. I don't want to back either Houston or San Fran against those pitchers. Surprisingly, the Fathers aren't all that public early this morning. Why aren't there any OAK/NYY or MIL/PHL lines yet? Unsure of pitchers, maybe? How is that for a disjointed paragraph?
Streak for the Cash
3p Liverpool (win only) vs. Arsenal
Current Streak: 0
My winning percentage in Streak was as high as 78% at one point last week after going 20-1 in 21 picks. My 2-8 run has brought it back to something a bit more reasonable (63%). Liverpool is the easy play today at -139. Arsenal has an extremely small chance of winning (17.3% JA), but since they are the bigger name, Streakers are picking them.
Leans
705p PIT (Karstens) +113 vs. FLA (Sanchez)
705p WAS (Martis) +115 vs. ATL (Kawakami)
705p MIN (Baker) +151 @ BOS (Wakefield)
805p HOU (Ortiz) +146 vs. LAD (Kershaw)
1005p SF (Cain) +109 vs. SD (Peavy)
Of course, it's another day sweating the Natinals. Minny is a Wakefield fade. Everyone remembers he almost no hit the A's. I don't want to back either Houston or San Fran against those pitchers. Surprisingly, the Fathers aren't all that public early this morning. Why aren't there any OAK/NYY or MIL/PHL lines yet? Unsure of pitchers, maybe? How is that for a disjointed paragraph?
Streak for the Cash
3p Liverpool (win only) vs. Arsenal
Current Streak: 0
My winning percentage in Streak was as high as 78% at one point last week after going 20-1 in 21 picks. My 2-8 run has brought it back to something a bit more reasonable (63%). Liverpool is the easy play today at -139. Arsenal has an extremely small chance of winning (17.3% JA), but since they are the bigger name, Streakers are picking them.
Monday 4/20
,
Labels:
mlb week 3,
plays
There is a good discussion (well, actually, a good pwning of my idiocy) going on in the comments to this morning's leans post. Check it out.
Plays
705p Washington +134 3x
Pass: COL/ARZ O10.5
Like you didn't know that was coming. This is of course assuming the game doesn't get rained out (like OAK/NYY did). Looking at the radar out of Sterling, the rain appears to broken, so while delays are likely, I don't think the game will get rained out.
Once again, there are no early games tomorrow. Glad to see we are in mid-season form in the scheduling, at least.
Streak for the Cash
7p Rangers vs. Washington
945p Nowitski more points and rebounds than Duncan
Current Streak: 0
Just because no one expects them to actually win a third straight game and I want to play a second game tonight, which will be Calgary.
This is going to be really neat when the flipping Rangers lose at 9:35. I'm really not happy about this.
Plays
705p Washington +134 3x
Pass: COL/ARZ O10.5
Like you didn't know that was coming. This is of course assuming the game doesn't get rained out (like OAK/NYY did). Looking at the radar out of Sterling, the rain appears to broken, so while delays are likely, I don't think the game will get rained out.
Once again, there are no early games tomorrow. Glad to see we are in mid-season form in the scheduling, at least.
Streak for the Cash
7p Rangers vs. Washington
945p Nowitski more points and rebounds than Duncan
Current Streak: 0
Just because no one expects them to actually win a third straight game and I want to play a second game tonight, which will be Calgary.
This is going to be really neat when the flipping Rangers lose at 9:35. I'm really not happy about this.
Leans 4/20
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 3
I guess it should be pretty obvious by now that I won't be posting much in the way of theoretical stuff over the next four or five months. I just don't have a large knowledge base for baseball. Plus, baseball is a sport that has been analyzed to death. It's not like my Excel spreadsheets are going to break new ground. Once football preparation starts, this will hopefully go back to being more than just a picks blog.
Leans
705p WAS (Zimmerman) +142 vs. ATL (Lowe)
705p OAK (Eveland) +170 @ NYY (Pettitte)
Both of these look like the types of games I might want to lay 3x on. Not that I know what that means, other than I had a strong reaction when I saw the lines.
Streak for the Cash
930a The Kenyan faster than The American (Boston Marathon)
245p Sheffield United vs. Burnley (English Championship)
Current Streak: 0
Sure, that might seem square, but cajuncook found a legit reason for it, too. There is almost no edge in the English Championship later today.
I clearly didn't expect The Kenyan to lose today. I literally flipped a coin at work to come up with Sheffield.
Leans
705p WAS (Zimmerman) +142 vs. ATL (Lowe)
705p OAK (Eveland) +170 @ NYY (Pettitte)
Both of these look like the types of games I might want to lay 3x on. Not that I know what that means, other than I had a strong reaction when I saw the lines.
Streak for the Cash
930a The Kenyan faster than The American (Boston Marathon)
245p Sheffield United vs. Burnley (English Championship)
Current Streak: 0
Sure, that might seem square, but cajuncook found a legit reason for it, too. There is almost no edge in the English Championship later today.
I clearly didn't expect The Kenyan to lose today. I literally flipped a coin at work to come up with Sheffield.
Record Update - 19 April 2009
,
Labels:
in review,
mlb week 2
I love it when I say things like this to jinx myself:
Was anything other than 0-3 going to happen after I made that comment?
Not the best of weeks, though going 1-7 on the Nats and Rox really didn't help things. Those two teams are just flat garbage. Garbage that I will continue to bet on until the books start setting lines that are reasonable.
For anyone that is curious, I am 2-3 +2x on hockey wagers for the year. Woo.
I don't have any early leans. The only early game is the Patriots' Day contest at Fenway, and I doubt the 2/1 line will generate much public action. Of course, you know I'll be on the Nats +137 tomorrow night. Awesome.
I haven't lost a lot of money this weekend, so far...
Was anything other than 0-3 going to happen after I made that comment?
Not the best of weeks, though going 1-7 on the Nats and Rox really didn't help things. Those two teams are just flat garbage. Garbage that I will continue to bet on until the books start setting lines that are reasonable.
For anyone that is curious, I am 2-3 +2x on hockey wagers for the year. Woo.
I don't have any early leans. The only early game is the Patriots' Day contest at Fenway, and I doubt the 2/1 line will generate much public action. Of course, you know I'll be on the Nats +137 tomorrow night. Awesome.
Sunday 4/19
,
Labels:
mlb week 2,
plays
Look, I get enough to traffic to get spammed now. How cute.
I haven't lost a lot of money this weekend, so far, but the results have been maddening. Washington's collapse yesterday is just par for the course for their season. I don't think I'll get those seven points for the over in Vegas' pool.
For effect, here is the Nats' win probability from yesterday.
Plays
105p Oakland +110 2x
135p Washington +140 2x - Un-flipping-believable again
410p Colorado +116 2x
I think I am just going to bet on Washington every day until they go on a three game winning streak. I bypassed a few Wagerline teams to get to Colorado. A combination of large lines and liking Ubaldo got me to the Rox.
I'll put leans up tonight in my record update post.
Streak for the Cash
906a McIlroy over Durant (Verizon Heritage - Front 9)
110p Mets vs. Milwaukee
535p Iguodala more points, assists and rebounds than Turkoglu
1035p Paul more points than Anthony
Current Streak: 1
Ideally, the rest of the day will look like this: Giants, Blues, Paul. If the NYM/MIL game runs long, I'll probably end up with Iguodala and the Cubs. There isn't a whole lot of edge in the "ideal" games, but I'm obviously putting value on the added volume, which I think is correct at a low streak.
Paul is pretty clearly a coin flip (they both averaged 22.8 ppg this year). I don't know enough about the NBA to say whose defense is better so I am just picking somebody.
Good luck today.
I haven't lost a lot of money this weekend, so far, but the results have been maddening. Washington's collapse yesterday is just par for the course for their season. I don't think I'll get those seven points for the over in Vegas' pool.
For effect, here is the Nats' win probability from yesterday.
Plays
105p Oakland +110 2x
135p Washington +140 2x - Un-flipping-believable again
410p Colorado +116 2x
I think I am just going to bet on Washington every day until they go on a three game winning streak. I bypassed a few Wagerline teams to get to Colorado. A combination of large lines and liking Ubaldo got me to the Rox.
I'll put leans up tonight in my record update post.
Streak for the Cash
906a McIlroy over Durant (Verizon Heritage - Front 9)
110p Mets vs. Milwaukee
535p Iguodala more points, assists and rebounds than Turkoglu
1035p Paul more points than Anthony
Current Streak: 1
Ideally, the rest of the day will look like this: Giants, Blues, Paul. If the NYM/MIL game runs long, I'll probably end up with Iguodala and the Cubs. There isn't a whole lot of edge in the "ideal" games, but I'm obviously putting value on the added volume, which I think is correct at a low streak.
Paul is pretty clearly a coin flip (they both averaged 22.8 ppg this year). I don't know enough about the NBA to say whose defense is better so I am just picking somebody.
Good luck today.
Saturday 4/18
,
Labels:
mlb week 2,
plays
Last night was the type of night that makes me want to to quit gambling. I'm leaving the park around 10pm and my teams are 2-0-1 in the late innings. I ended up 1-2, both losses by a run. By the time I was getting ready to go to bed, the Rockies were up 3-0 in the 6th. The Dodgers won by a single run on a 4-run 7th inning. Naturally, I am going to wager on a lot of those same teams today.
Earlies (12p-6p)
1235p Pittsburgh -105 2x
105p Washington +148 2x - Just un-flipping-believable
110p Milwaukee +166 2x
340p Cleveland +119 2x
340p Colorado +161 2x
Atlanta got steamed right before I played the Pirates. The line dropped from -112 to -105. I'm sure that kind of line movement is a good sign.
Passing all of the late games. Good luck if you play anything.
NHL
105p Rangers +186 2x
605p Columbus +248 2x
805p Montreal +224 2x
I'm feeling frisky today, so I'm going to play some hockey sides. I'm not really doing any analysis, just following Tocchet and Gamblor over at RMMB. I'm flat betting these just like baseball sides.
Streak for the Cash
810p San Antonio vs. Dallas
1045p Portland vs. Houston
Current Streak: 0
They should put props out on things like:
Earlies (12p-6p)
1235p Pittsburgh -105 2x
105p Washington +148 2x - Just un-flipping-believable
110p Milwaukee +166 2x
340p Cleveland +119 2x
340p Colorado +161 2x
Atlanta got steamed right before I played the Pirates. The line dropped from -112 to -105. I'm sure that kind of line movement is a good sign.
Passing all of the late games. Good luck if you play anything.
NHL
105p Rangers +186 2x
605p Columbus +248 2x
805p Montreal +224 2x
I'm feeling frisky today, so I'm going to play some hockey sides. I'm not really doing any analysis, just following Tocchet and Gamblor over at RMMB. I'm flat betting these just like baseball sides.
Streak for the Cash
810p San Antonio vs. Dallas
1045p Portland vs. Houston
Current Streak: 0
They should put props out on things like:
Given earlier results, do you think am19psu's Streak will continue?
Yes +250
No -275
Friday 4/17 - PM
,
Labels:
mlb week 2,
plays
Headed to The Bank, so I don't have much time to do anything.
Plays
705p Washington +120 2x
705p Oakland +121 2x
710p Milwaukee +123 2x
1010p Colorado +144 2x
Pass: KC
I like Meche, but SIA numbers made me back off.
Not even going to look at Streak tonight, since I'll be at the game. Go Casey.
Good luck tonight.
Plays
705p Washington +120 2x
705p Oakland +121 2x
710p Milwaukee +123 2x
1010p Colorado +144 2x
Pass: KC
I like Meche, but SIA numbers made me back off.
Not even going to look at Streak tonight, since I'll be at the game. Go Casey.
Good luck tonight.
Friday 4/17 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 2
I'm going to pass the two early games. Nothing really excites me there. I'll probably regret Cleveland this afternoon.
Leans
705p WAS (Lannan) +116 vs. FLA (Nolasco)
705p PIT (Maholm) +103 vs. ATL (Jurrjens)
705p OAK (Outman) +115 @ TOR (Purcey)
705p BAL (Guthrie) +136 @ BOS (Penny)
710p MIL (Bush) +110 @ NYM (Hernandez)
805p KC (Meche) -106 @ TEX (Harrison)
1010p COL (De La Rosa) +135 @ LAD (Wolf)
Sadly, I can't see any way that the Brewers, Rox, A's, and Nats aren't on my card. The other three will have to be re-evaluated tonight.
Streak for the Cash
110p Casey lower score than D. Johnson
Current Streak: 8
The morning matchup is a coinflip, and I have no idea on the Yankees prop. But the afternoon golf matchup is pretty nice. The Saw keeps a running ranking of the world's golfers. In it, you'll see Casey ranked 13th and Johnson no where to be found. The Saw estimates a line on this prop would be something like -175 or -200, so I'll bite and try to run the streak to eight.
Good luck today.
Leans
705p WAS (Lannan) +116 vs. FLA (Nolasco)
705p PIT (Maholm) +103 vs. ATL (Jurrjens)
705p OAK (Outman) +115 @ TOR (Purcey)
705p BAL (Guthrie) +136 @ BOS (Penny)
710p MIL (Bush) +110 @ NYM (Hernandez)
805p KC (Meche) -106 @ TEX (Harrison)
1010p COL (De La Rosa) +135 @ LAD (Wolf)
Sadly, I can't see any way that the Brewers, Rox, A's, and Nats aren't on my card. The other three will have to be re-evaluated tonight.
Streak for the Cash
110p Casey lower score than D. Johnson
Current Streak: 8
The morning matchup is a coinflip, and I have no idea on the Yankees prop. But the afternoon golf matchup is pretty nice. The Saw keeps a running ranking of the world's golfers. In it, you'll see Casey ranked 13th and Johnson no where to be found. The Saw estimates a line on this prop would be something like -175 or -200, so I'll bite and try to run the streak to eight.
Good luck today.
Thursday 4/16 - PM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 2,
plays
I can't really complain about anything yet today. Let's see if Furyk can collapse and completely ruin these two bets like Percival did yesterday.
Plaus
705p Washington +124 2x
1005p San Francisco +163 2x
These Washington lines are getting out of hand. Obviously, the books still believe in them, so I guess I will, too, just like I did with West Virginia and UCLA.
Leans
105p CLE (Reyes) +194 @ NYY (Chamberlain)
I haven't quite figured out how to deal with these large lines yet. If the books wanted to play it safe, at -210/+190, they would be aiming for 67/33 splits to just win off the juice over time. I'm not sure what represents "public" or a "trap number" at spreads like that.
Streak for the Cash
Current Streak: 7
I'm not sold on anything in Streak, yet. At a lower streak, I would probably play Toronto followed by the hockey under. I still might try under 5.5, but I want to see how, if at all, the line moves.
Good luck tonight.
Plaus
705p Washington +124 2x
1005p San Francisco +163 2x
These Washington lines are getting out of hand. Obviously, the books still believe in them, so I guess I will, too, just like I did with West Virginia and UCLA.
Leans
105p CLE (Reyes) +194 @ NYY (Chamberlain)
I haven't quite figured out how to deal with these large lines yet. If the books wanted to play it safe, at -210/+190, they would be aiming for 67/33 splits to just win off the juice over time. I'm not sure what represents "public" or a "trap number" at spreads like that.
Streak for the Cash
Current Streak: 7
I'm not sold on anything in Streak, yet. At a lower streak, I would probably play Toronto followed by the hockey under. I still might try under 5.5, but I want to see how, if at all, the line moves.
Good luck tonight.
Thursday 4/16 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 2,
plays
I should have just canceled the late night bets after the Rays put in Troy Percival to blow it yesterday. There was zero chance of anything else coming in.
Plays
105p Cleveland +177 2x
When Cliff Lee leaves with a shoulder problem in the 3rd inning, I am not going to be happy.
Leans
705p WAS (Martis) +125 vs. PHL (Blanton)
1005p SF (Zito) +135 @ LAD (Stults)
Here are two things I don't want to back: Washington and Barry Zito. That should make for an optimistic evening.
Streak for the Cash
820a Johnson/Immelman over Villegas (PGA Verizon Heritage - Front 9)
100p Furyk over Baddeley (PGA Verizon Heritage)
Current Streak: 7
Using numbers from Bodog, I've got Johnson/Immelman at 61.4% JA to win this prop. In the afternoon, The Saw would have Furyk at -150, which is good enough for me*.
Good luck today.
*-Depending on others' posts this morning, I may audible off Furyk on to the soccer under.
Plays
105p Cleveland +177 2x
When Cliff Lee leaves with a shoulder problem in the 3rd inning, I am not going to be happy.
Leans
705p WAS (Martis) +125 vs. PHL (Blanton)
1005p SF (Zito) +135 @ LAD (Stults)
Here are two things I don't want to back: Washington and Barry Zito. That should make for an optimistic evening.
Streak for the Cash
820a Johnson/Immelman over Villegas (PGA Verizon Heritage - Front 9)
100p Furyk over Baddeley (PGA Verizon Heritage)
Current Streak: 7
Using numbers from Bodog, I've got Johnson/Immelman at 61.4% JA to win this prop. In the afternoon, The Saw would have Furyk at -150, which is good enough for me*.
Good luck today.
*-Depending on others' posts this morning, I may audible off Furyk on to the soccer under.
Wednesday 4/15 - PM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 2,
plays
Happy I passed everything in Streak this afternoon. I still don't know about the tennis side; with Safin at -155, was it highly probable he wouldn't win convincingly in straight sets? I have no idea. The soccer side was garbage from the start.
Plays
705p San Diego +174 2x
1005p San Francisco +148 2x
I would have been on the Nats, but it's already been postponed. I'm surprised that the Padres are as anti-public as they are against Perez. It's not like that guy is a Cy Young candidate. Also, Cain, apparently, is a bit underrated, which is nice.
Leans
1210p FLA (Sanchez) +124 @ ATL (Kawakami)
105p CLE (Lee) +175 @ NYY (Sabathia)
I may not be around tomorrow morning to post plays because Blogger has a scheduled outage at 5a EDT. I'll still post the picks over at RMMB if for some strange reason you are trailing me.
Streak for the Cash
1030p Portland vs. Denver
Current Streak: 5
The two best plays are late at night. The Canucks/Blues under is -179, if the half point calculator is to be believed for hockey totals. However, Portland is an amazing -285 on the moneyline at Pinnacle. That's almost as good as last night's lottery pick. I don't really see a reason to take a coin flip early with Portland such a good selection later. Hopefully Streak puts together a better card tomorrow.
Plays
705p San Diego +174 2x
1005p San Francisco +148 2x
I would have been on the Nats, but it's already been postponed. I'm surprised that the Padres are as anti-public as they are against Perez. It's not like that guy is a Cy Young candidate. Also, Cain, apparently, is a bit underrated, which is nice.
Leans
1210p FLA (Sanchez) +124 @ ATL (Kawakami)
105p CLE (Lee) +175 @ NYY (Sabathia)
I may not be around tomorrow morning to post plays because Blogger has a scheduled outage at 5a EDT. I'll still post the picks over at RMMB if for some strange reason you are trailing me.
Streak for the Cash
1030p Portland vs. Denver
Current Streak: 5
The two best plays are late at night. The Canucks/Blues under is -179, if the half point calculator is to be believed for hockey totals. However, Portland is an amazing -285 on the moneyline at Pinnacle. That's almost as good as last night's lottery pick. I don't really see a reason to take a coin flip early with Portland such a good selection later. Hopefully Streak puts together a better card tomorrow.
Wednesday 4/15 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 2,
plays
Plays
205p Colorado +206 2x
335p Oakland +100 2x
408p Tampa Bay -103 2x
I really couldn't decide who to pass and who to play, so I opted for all three. I'm sure that will look like a good decision around 7p tonight.
Leans
705p WAS (Martis) +121 vs. PHL (Blanton)
710p SD (Correia) +166 @ NYM (Perez)
805p CIN (Owings) +123 @ MIL (Looper)
1010p SF (Cain) +136 @ LAD (Kershaw)
1010p SEA (Washburn) +105 vs. LAA (Weaver)
I doubt I'll play that many games tonight, but Washington and San Diego seem like sure things.
Streak for the Cash
Current Streak: 4
This is not me getting tight at 4. I just don't see a good play with an edge out there this afternoon. Plus, I need to give The TMLJ time to catch back up.
205p Colorado +206 2x
335p Oakland +100 2x
408p Tampa Bay -103 2x
I really couldn't decide who to pass and who to play, so I opted for all three. I'm sure that will look like a good decision around 7p tonight.
Leans
705p WAS (Martis) +121 vs. PHL (Blanton)
710p SD (Correia) +166 @ NYM (Perez)
805p CIN (Owings) +123 @ MIL (Looper)
1010p SF (Cain) +136 @ LAD (Kershaw)
1010p SEA (Washburn) +105 vs. LAA (Weaver)
I doubt I'll play that many games tonight, but Washington and San Diego seem like sure things.
Streak for the Cash
Current Streak: 4
This is not me getting tight at 4. I just don't see a good play with an edge out there this afternoon. Plus, I need to give The TMLJ time to catch back up.
Tuesday 4/14 - PM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 2,
plays
This was my best afternoon in a while. I didn't lose a baseball pick and went 2-0 in Streak. Woo.
Plays
1005p Oakland +129 2x
Passes: Seattle, Tampa Bay
Seattle seems to be a popular play in the contrarian community tonight. The consensus numbers aren't really there and Silva isn't a very good pitcher (neither is Loux), so I'll just pass and regret it later.
Leans
220p COL (Marquis) +194 @ CHC (Harden)
335p OAK (Anderson) -105 vs. BOS (Wakefield)
405p TB (Sonnastine) -104 vs. NYY (Pettitte)
Not a whole lot of surprises on that list. I've been a bit confounded at how little respect the Rays continue to get (against the Sawx and Yanks, of course), but whatever, I'll take it.
Streak for the Cash
8p NYI, COL, or ATL wins 1st overall pick in NHL Draft
1005p Jack Cust more total bases than David Ortiz
Current Streak: 4
The Islanders, Avalanche, or Thrashers have a 49.9% chance of winning the lottery. However, the prop is for winning the first overall pick. Because of the archaic rules of the lottery, these three teams actually have 73% chance of getting the 1st overall pick. This is the new record holder for "Best. Streak. Pick. Ever."
Until VW or ML (or anyone else, for that matter) tell me I'm wrong, I'm leaning Cust for the nightcap.
Plays
1005p Oakland +129 2x
Passes: Seattle, Tampa Bay
Seattle seems to be a popular play in the contrarian community tonight. The consensus numbers aren't really there and Silva isn't a very good pitcher (neither is Loux), so I'll just pass and regret it later.
Leans
220p COL (Marquis) +194 @ CHC (Harden)
335p OAK (Anderson) -105 vs. BOS (Wakefield)
405p TB (Sonnastine) -104 vs. NYY (Pettitte)
Not a whole lot of surprises on that list. I've been a bit confounded at how little respect the Rays continue to get (against the Sawx and Yanks, of course), but whatever, I'll take it.
Streak for the Cash
8p NYI, COL, or ATL wins 1st overall pick in NHL Draft
1005p Jack Cust more total bases than David Ortiz
Current Streak: 4
The Islanders, Avalanche, or Thrashers have a 49.9% chance of winning the lottery. However, the prop is for winning the first overall pick. Because of the archaic rules of the lottery, these three teams actually have 73% chance of getting the 1st overall pick. This is the new record holder for "Best. Streak. Pick. Ever."
Until VW or ML (or anyone else, for that matter) tell me I'm wrong, I'm leaning Cust for the nightcap.
Tuesday 4/14 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 2
Well, that was fun while it lasted. A special thank you goes out to MoneyLine for actively jinxing me yesterday. I probably won't sniff double digits again in the game. I'd gladly trade that for a few winning days in baseball, though.
Plays
None. I like Detroit, but the Tigers aren't even really close to being a play.
Leans
705p TB (Garza) -121 vs. NYY (Burnett)
1005p OAK (Eveland) +135 vs. BOS (Matsuzaka)
I looked through the projections of the two opposing pitchers. Other than Dice-K's walk rate being a little higher, are there a lot of differences between the two? It seems like if one is going to be a fade (Dice-K), then shouldn't the other, given their respective teams? Or has Burnett not been lucky enough yet, like Dice-K was last year?
Streak for the Cash
930a M. Safin more aces than L. Hewitt
245p Bayern Munich (win or draw) vs. Barcelona (UEFA Champions League)
Current Streak: 2
Look! A tennis prop I know nothing about. It's good to be back to zero.
Bayern Munich is an overwhelming favorite to win or draw this afternoon (JA 63%). I would play that game if I was back at 13.
In hindsight, I probably should have played Milwaukee last night once it became known that Orlando was sitting their stars. The line jumped to -7, but the Mets game had already started by the time I saw it. Oh well.
Plays
None. I like Detroit, but the Tigers aren't even really close to being a play.
Leans
705p TB (Garza) -121 vs. NYY (Burnett)
1005p OAK (Eveland) +135 vs. BOS (Matsuzaka)
I looked through the projections of the two opposing pitchers. Other than Dice-K's walk rate being a little higher, are there a lot of differences between the two? It seems like if one is going to be a fade (Dice-K), then shouldn't the other, given their respective teams? Or has Burnett not been lucky enough yet, like Dice-K was last year?
Streak for the Cash
930a M. Safin more aces than L. Hewitt
245p Bayern Munich (win or draw) vs. Barcelona (UEFA Champions League)
Current Streak: 2
Look! A tennis prop I know nothing about. It's good to be back to zero.
Bayern Munich is an overwhelming favorite to win or draw this afternoon (JA 63%). I would play that game if I was back at 13.
In hindsight, I probably should have played Milwaukee last night once it became known that Orlando was sitting their stars. The line jumped to -7, but the Mets game had already started by the time I saw it. Oh well.
Monday 4/13
,
Labels:
mlb week 2,
plays
Washington is a flipping joke. As is Peter King:
Yup, Matt Garza. Flipping idiot.
Plays
1005p Oakland +147 2x
This ought to make it 0-3 on the day. I should have known that first week was beginner's luck.
Leans
105p DET (Porcello) +112 vs. CHW (Danks)
I doubt the Tigers will be all that public, but Porcello > Danks.
Streak for the Cash
710p New York Mets vs. San Diego
Current Streak: 0
This will be pointless by the 3rd inning after Pelfrey gives up 7 runs to the offensive juggernaut that is the San Diego Padres.
If Evan Longoria and Matt Garza are not in the top three vote-getters for MVP and Cy Young this year, I’ll be stunned. Longoria hits good pitches 400 feet. Garza has the Red Sox totally figured out.
Yup, Matt Garza. Flipping idiot.
Plays
1005p Oakland +147 2x
This ought to make it 0-3 on the day. I should have known that first week was beginner's luck.
Leans
105p DET (Porcello) +112 vs. CHW (Danks)
I doubt the Tigers will be all that public, but Porcello > Danks.
Streak for the Cash
710p New York Mets vs. San Diego
Current Streak: 0
This will be pointless by the 3rd inning after Pelfrey gives up 7 runs to the offensive juggernaut that is the San Diego Padres.
Monday 4/13 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 2,
plays
Plays
220p Colorado +125 2x
305p Washington +107 2x
I mean, really, who are they trying to kid with the Nats line?
Leans
1005p OAK (Braden) +133 vs. BOS (Lester)
Nothing else really jumps out me, either thinly slicing or by Wagerline. The Fathers might seem like a play at first glance, but the large spread on the line spooked me off of that game.
Streak for the Cash
Current Streak: 12
It is slightly tempting to double down on the Nats. I assume either they or the Tigers will be a play for anyone under 6 or 7 today. Slight lean to Ipswich in the early soccer game, as well.
I'm passing until the Mets tonight. They are the public side, but they opened at -173 and have moved to -201. That works out to a JA probability of 65.6% and I doubt public money pushed the line up twenty-eight cents.
Good luck today.
220p Colorado +125 2x
305p Washington +107 2x
I mean, really, who are they trying to kid with the Nats line?
Leans
1005p OAK (Braden) +133 vs. BOS (Lester)
Nothing else really jumps out me, either thinly slicing or by Wagerline. The Fathers might seem like a play at first glance, but the large spread on the line spooked me off of that game.
Streak for the Cash
Current Streak: 12
It is slightly tempting to double down on the Nats. I assume either they or the Tigers will be a play for anyone under 6 or 7 today. Slight lean to Ipswich in the early soccer game, as well.
I'm passing until the Mets tonight. They are the public side, but they opened at -173 and have moved to -201. That works out to a JA probability of 65.6% and I doubt public money pushed the line up twenty-eight cents.
Good luck today.
Record Update - 12 April 2009
,
Labels:
in review,
leans,
mlb week 1
The Nationals are really screwing up my universe. I realize that their current streak is likely adding value in the coming weeks, but I'd rather just have the money in my account now. Also, will the Astros score 300 runs this year? They are flipping pathetic. I'm sure I'll back them at least 50 more times this season.
Obviously, I'm passing the Brew Crew tonight. Good luck if you play them.
Leans
220p COL (Jimenez) +132 @ CHC (Lilly)
305p WAS (Cabrera) +107 vs. PHL (Moyer)
The Dodgers are getting a lot of early love over at Wagerline, but again, I don't think fading Billingsley is the answer. That Washington line is a flipping joke.
Streak for the Cash
Current Streak: 12
I am insanely lucky that I was born into a family that celebrates Easter. I obviously would have been on the -175 Flyers if I hadn't been traveling all day. I'm sure I'll be smited and lose my next Streak game.
Obviously, I'm passing the Brew Crew tonight. Good luck if you play them.
Leans
220p COL (Jimenez) +132 @ CHC (Lilly)
305p WAS (Cabrera) +107 vs. PHL (Moyer)
The Dodgers are getting a lot of early love over at Wagerline, but again, I don't think fading Billingsley is the answer. That Washington line is a flipping joke.
Streak for the Cash
Current Streak: 12
I am insanely lucky that I was born into a family that celebrates Easter. I obviously would have been on the -175 Flyers if I hadn't been traveling all day. I'm sure I'll be smited and lose my next Streak game.
Sunday 4/12 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 1,
plays
Yesterday was fun. My semi-square TEX/DET under was the only play to hit all day. On the bright side, the Brewers were the only side that we had to sweat. That was payback for Friday's heroics.
Plays
110p Florida +118 2x
130p Washington +179 2x
215p Houston +120 2x
Passes: Minny, KC
Standard big name fades all around. The Fish are ridiculously short against Santana. I almost made that wager a 3xer.
Leans
805p Milwaukee (Suppan) +125 vs. Cubs (Dempster)
Am I wrong in thinking that Dempster really isn't that good?
Streak for the Cash
105p New Orleans vs. Dallas
Current Streak: 12
The best look, statistically, on the board is the soccer game at 9. Everton has a non-JA 60.2% chance of covering there. I'm completely scared off of soccer and golf at 11, though. The only other halfway decent look is New Orleans, favored by 3.5 against Dallas. It looks like I'll be passing everything today and I think that is right.
[1150a UPDATE: The NO/DAL line moved from -3 to -4. The moneyline is sitting at -167, which works out to a JA 61.6% chance of winning. Combine those two things, and I think the Hornets have rounded into a play.]
Plays
110p Florida +118 2x
130p Washington +179 2x
215p Houston +120 2x
Passes: Minny, KC
Standard big name fades all around. The Fish are ridiculously short against Santana. I almost made that wager a 3xer.
Leans
805p Milwaukee (Suppan) +125 vs. Cubs (Dempster)
Am I wrong in thinking that Dempster really isn't that good?
Streak for the Cash
105p New Orleans vs. Dallas
Current Streak: 12
The best look, statistically, on the board is the soccer game at 9. Everton has a non-JA 60.2% chance of covering there. I'm completely scared off of soccer and golf at 11, though. The only other halfway decent look is New Orleans, favored by 3.5 against Dallas. It looks like I'll be passing everything today and I think that is right.
[1150a UPDATE: The NO/DAL line moved from -3 to -4. The moneyline is sitting at -167, which works out to a JA 61.6% chance of winning. Combine those two things, and I think the Hornets have rounded into a play.]
Saturday 4/11
,
Labels:
mlb week 1,
plays
I may have some traveling to do for the holiday, so I just want to get everything in now.
Plays
105p TEX/DET U10.5 +101 3x
705p Milwaukee +128 2x
710p Kansas City +182 2x
810p PHL/COL U10 +107 2x
Passes: Wash, SD/SF Under
I didn't feel comfortable with much in the way of sides today, so I went against two big name teams with large Wagerline splits.
For the totals, everyone thinks Texas and Detroit are going to give up a ton of runs. The oddsmakers are giving an extra half run over yesterday with similar pitchers, so I think there is contrarian value there. I assume the total is so high in the Philly/Rox game because the public thinks Myers and De La Rosa are going to get rocked. Whatever the case, it's getting pounded.
Streak for the Cash
1005p San Diego vs. San Francisco
Current Streak:
11
There is nothing even close to playable early on. I'll likely be on Peavy and the Fathers tonight, but I want to see how the line moves throughout the day.
(UPDATE: San Diego is down to -163 at Pinnacle. That's good enough for me. Now that I am at 10, expect me to get a lot tighter with my plays. I'm reasonably sure that getting tighter is optimal, though I'm not sure, with 7.5 months left in the game, how tight I should be. Regardless, I feel confident that 62% without adjusting for juice is worthwhile at this point in the game.)
Good luck today.
Plays
105p TEX/DET U10.5 +101 3x
705p Milwaukee +128 2x
710p Kansas City +182 2x
810p PHL/COL U10 +107 2x
Passes: Wash, SD/SF Under
I didn't feel comfortable with much in the way of sides today, so I went against two big name teams with large Wagerline splits.
For the totals, everyone thinks Texas and Detroit are going to give up a ton of runs. The oddsmakers are giving an extra half run over yesterday with similar pitchers, so I think there is contrarian value there. I assume the total is so high in the Philly/Rox game because the public thinks Myers and De La Rosa are going to get rocked. Whatever the case, it's getting pounded.
Streak for the Cash
1005p San Diego vs. San Francisco
Current Streak:
11There is nothing even close to playable early on. I'll likely be on Peavy and the Fathers tonight, but I want to see how the line moves throughout the day.
(UPDATE: San Diego is down to -163 at Pinnacle. That's good enough for me. Now that I am at 10, expect me to get a lot tighter with my plays. I'm reasonably sure that getting tighter is optimal, though I'm not sure, with 7.5 months left in the game, how tight I should be. Regardless, I feel confident that 62% without adjusting for juice is worthwhile at this point in the game.)
Good luck today.
Friday 4/10 - PM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 1,
plays
The Saw has a chat going about golf if anyone is interested in that sort of thing.
Plays
735p Washington +208 2x
815p Houston +134 2x
Washington's line is a bit ridiculous. I stand by my comment about Hampton this morning.
Leans
110p Pittsburgh (Maholm) +105 vs. Cincinnati (Owings)
That game is the only one thinly sliced. I'll update this later once Pinny posts their lines.
Streak for the Cash
830p St. Louis vs. Columbus (NHL)
Current Streak:
10
(UPDATE: Blue star, bitches.)
The Blues are -165 with a 61.4 JA chance of winning. Easily the best play on the card tonight. The other hockey game wouldn't finish in time for any other sides to be played anyway.
Good luck tonight.
Plays
735p Washington +208 2x
815p Houston +134 2x
Washington's line is a bit ridiculous. I stand by my comment about Hampton this morning.
Leans
110p Pittsburgh (Maholm) +105 vs. Cincinnati (Owings)
That game is the only one thinly sliced. I'll update this later once Pinny posts their lines.
Streak for the Cash
830p St. Louis vs. Columbus (NHL)
Current Streak:
10(UPDATE: Blue star, bitches.)
The Blues are -165 with a 61.4 JA chance of winning. Easily the best play on the card tonight. The other hockey game wouldn't finish in time for any other sides to be played anyway.
Good luck tonight.
Friday 4/10 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 1,
plays,
streak for cash
I'm not really all that sure about this early card. It was one of those cards where I felt like I had to play all three or none. I'm a degenerate, so you know what I chose.
Plays
405p Milwaukee +131 2x
410p Colorado +125 2x
410p Kansas City +158 2x
Pass: Det/Tex Under
The lines for the first two games seem short considering the pitchers they are facing. I'll also take better than 3:2 value with an underrated team against an aging pitcher who in all likelihood is no longer juicing.
Leans
730p Washington (Martis) +187 @ Atlanta (Lowe)
815p Houston (Hampton) +121 @ St. Louis (Pineiro)
I know Lowe pitched well on opening night, but isn't that a bit too much respect for him?
There might not be a pitcher in baseball who I want bet on less than Mike Hampton, but that line is awful short against an NL Central "contender."
Streak for the Cash
822a Poulter over Watson or Wilson (Masters - Front Nine)
Current Streak: 9
I found this at Bodog. Watson and Wilson are both 4/1 (+400), while Poulter is 5/12 (-240). That works out to a JA-63.8% probability. It doesn't get a whole lot better than that in Streak.
I've already admitted I don't want to get too involved with the golf. The soccer match only offers a 53.7/46.3 JA edge. The Tigers opened at -165 and have been bet down to -138. Passing seems like the best option for the afternoon with a streak this high. If Poulter screws the pooch here, I guess I'll just guess on a golf matchup.
Plays
405p Milwaukee +131 2x
410p Colorado +125 2x
410p Kansas City +158 2x
Pass: Det/Tex Under
The lines for the first two games seem short considering the pitchers they are facing. I'll also take better than 3:2 value with an underrated team against an aging pitcher who in all likelihood is no longer juicing.
Leans
730p Washington (Martis) +187 @ Atlanta (Lowe)
815p Houston (Hampton) +121 @ St. Louis (Pineiro)
I know Lowe pitched well on opening night, but isn't that a bit too much respect for him?
There might not be a pitcher in baseball who I want bet on less than Mike Hampton, but that line is awful short against an NL Central "contender."
Streak for the Cash
822a Poulter over Watson or Wilson (Masters - Front Nine)
Current Streak: 9
I found this at Bodog. Watson and Wilson are both 4/1 (+400), while Poulter is 5/12 (-240). That works out to a JA-63.8% probability. It doesn't get a whole lot better than that in Streak.
I've already admitted I don't want to get too involved with the golf. The soccer match only offers a 53.7/46.3 JA edge. The Tigers opened at -165 and have been bet down to -138. Passing seems like the best option for the afternoon with a streak this high. If Poulter screws the pooch here, I guess I'll just guess on a golf matchup.
Thursday 4/9 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 1,
plays
(UPDATE: With the cancellation of A's/Angels, there won't be any late plays from me. I'll update SftC for tonight below)
(UPDATE2: Rox and Brewers for sure tomorrow afternoon. Are the Indians possibly a play?)
There has to be like zero chance I win >60% of my plays again today. My spreadsheet actually looks halfway decent. I'm sure that will last.
Plays
110p Seattle +115 2x
135p Tampa Bay +142 3x
135p Baltimore +162 2x
140p Pittsburgh +182 2x
205p Kansas City +144 2x
Passes: Cincy, SD
These all pass the sniff test, I think. San Diego was a pass because I can't see fading Kershaw yet.
Leans
1025p Oakland (Anderson) +112 @ Angels (Good Weaver)
Not much of a late card tonight. The only other game is an unplayable Brewers/Giants tilt.
Streak for the Cash
5p Fake Miami vs. Bemidji State (NCAA Hockey)
8p Boston vs. Vermont (NCAA Hockey)
Current Streak: 8
I actually knew where to find the Tiger-Cink/Jeev line. It's at 5Dimes and the spread is -166/+136, which works out to a 59.6% juice adjusted chance of Tiger covering, though the line is probably inflated. If I could guarantee that would be over by 5, I would play it, but I'm pretty sure golf rounds take longer than three hours. Since I know jack about golf, I'll just pass all of the rest of the garbage and take the -230 Redhawks at 5.
(UPDATE2: Rox and Brewers for sure tomorrow afternoon. Are the Indians possibly a play?)
There has to be like zero chance I win >60% of my plays again today. My spreadsheet actually looks halfway decent. I'm sure that will last.
Plays
110p Seattle +115 2x
135p Tampa Bay +142 3x
135p Baltimore +162 2x
140p Pittsburgh +182 2x
205p Kansas City +144 2x
Passes: Cincy, SD
These all pass the sniff test, I think. San Diego was a pass because I can't see fading Kershaw yet.
Leans
1025p Oakland (Anderson) +112 @ Angels (Good Weaver)
Not much of a late card tonight. The only other game is an unplayable Brewers/Giants tilt.
Streak for the Cash
5p Fake Miami vs. Bemidji State (NCAA Hockey)
8p Boston vs. Vermont (NCAA Hockey)
Current Streak: 8
I actually knew where to find the Tiger-Cink/Jeev line. It's at 5Dimes and the spread is -166/+136, which works out to a 59.6% juice adjusted chance of Tiger covering, though the line is probably inflated. If I could guarantee that would be over by 5, I would play it, but I'm pretty sure golf rounds take longer than three hours. Since I know jack about golf, I'll just pass all of the rest of the garbage and take the -230 Redhawks at 5.
Wednesday 4/8 - PM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 1,
plays
My initial thought about flat betting when VW pointed it out to me was that you are likely slightly increasing your EV and slightly decreasing your variance. The main drawback, in my mind, was not getting paid off for your big dogs coming in. It took some thought, but I realized I'm still getting paid off for the dogs, just in a different way.
When you flat bet, it's like betting all of the games at the average juice of the wagers. So, you are still getting paid off for the longshots by making the average juice more lucrative. It's just not quite as intuitive to see it. Of course, I could just be worried about trivial things that other people already figured out.
Plays
705p Baltimore +143 2x
810p Seattle +147 2x
811p Kansas City +103 2x
815p Pittsburgh +156 2x
1005p Oakland -102 2x
Kansas City isn't the most anti-pub team ever, but Greinke vs. Floyd is the type of match up that was profitable last year for contrarians. Otherwise, there is nothing out of the ordinary here.
Leans
135p Tampa Bay (Garza) +145 @ Boston (Matsuzaka)
135p Baltimore (Simon) +150 vs. Yankees (Burnett)
140p Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) +172 @ St. Louis (Carpenter)
205p Kansas City (Davies) +137 @ White Sox (Danks)
The Matsuzaka fade is the most obvious play on the early board tomorrow. The Royals aren't contrarian yet, but that line still seems short.
Streak for the Cash
730p Detroit @ New York (NBA)
1005p Oakland @ Angels
Current Streak: 6
Boston is a better overall look, but I'd like to double down on the A's later, and the baseball game would have to go off extremely fast to be able to play Oakland later.
Good luck tonight.
When you flat bet, it's like betting all of the games at the average juice of the wagers. So, you are still getting paid off for the longshots by making the average juice more lucrative. It's just not quite as intuitive to see it. Of course, I could just be worried about trivial things that other people already figured out.
Plays
705p Baltimore +143 2x
810p Seattle +147 2x
811p Kansas City +103 2x
815p Pittsburgh +156 2x
1005p Oakland -102 2x
Kansas City isn't the most anti-pub team ever, but Greinke vs. Floyd is the type of match up that was profitable last year for contrarians. Otherwise, there is nothing out of the ordinary here.
Leans
135p Tampa Bay (Garza) +145 @ Boston (Matsuzaka)
135p Baltimore (Simon) +150 vs. Yankees (Burnett)
140p Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) +172 @ St. Louis (Carpenter)
205p Kansas City (Davies) +137 @ White Sox (Danks)
The Matsuzaka fade is the most obvious play on the early board tomorrow. The Royals aren't contrarian yet, but that line still seems short.
Streak for the Cash
730p Detroit @ New York (NBA)
1005p Oakland @ Angels
Current Streak: 6
Boston is a better overall look, but I'd like to double down on the A's later, and the baseball game would have to go off extremely fast to be able to play Oakland later.
Good luck tonight.
Wednesday 4/8 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 1,
plays
I'm pretty sure working early in the morning is going to save me years on my life. I have no idea what happened to Seattle last night, but I see they gave up three in the ninth to lose. This morning, all I did was mutter a curse under my breath. Had I watched it live, things may have been broken.
Plays
1210p Washington +125 2x
340p Colorado +125 2x
Pass: Atlanta
The Nats and Rockies are a bit more anti-pub than the Braves, plus the Atlanta has won two in a row. I'm not backing any winners.
Leans
705p Baltimore (Uehara) +154 vs. Yankees (Wang)
805p Houston (Moehler) +129 vs. Cubs (Lilly)
810p Seattle (Silva) +138 @ Minnesota (Slowey)
815p Pittsburgh (Duke) +148 @ St. Louis (Wellemeyer)
1005p San Diego (Silva) +160 vs. Dodgers (Billingsley)
1005p Oakland (Eveland) -107 @ Angels (Adenhart)
I've got no desire to fade Billingsley. The Orioles and Pirates look like must plays again today.
Streak for the Cash
830a F. Gil over I. Ljubicic (Men's Tennis)
245p Chelsea (win or draw) vs. Liverpool
Current Streak: 4
I'm somewhat surprised that China (+102) is decent at curling. Apparently, the rest of Sportsnation is as well. Gil has a 53.6% juice-adjusted probability of winning the tennis match. The early first half total is pretty sharp, so I'll be playing Chelsea win or draw in the afternoon.
Good luck today.
Plays
1210p Washington +125 2x
340p Colorado +125 2x
Pass: Atlanta
The Nats and Rockies are a bit more anti-pub than the Braves, plus the Atlanta has won two in a row. I'm not backing any winners.
Leans
705p Baltimore (Uehara) +154 vs. Yankees (Wang)
805p Houston (Moehler) +129 vs. Cubs (Lilly)
810p Seattle (Silva) +138 @ Minnesota (Slowey)
815p Pittsburgh (Duke) +148 @ St. Louis (Wellemeyer)
1005p San Diego (Silva) +160 vs. Dodgers (Billingsley)
1005p Oakland (Eveland) -107 @ Angels (Adenhart)
I've got no desire to fade Billingsley. The Orioles and Pirates look like must plays again today.
Streak for the Cash
830a F. Gil over I. Ljubicic (Men's Tennis)
245p Chelsea (win or draw) vs. Liverpool
Current Streak: 4
I'm somewhat surprised that China (+102) is decent at curling. Apparently, the rest of Sportsnation is as well. Gil has a 53.6% juice-adjusted probability of winning the tennis match. The early first half total is pretty sharp, so I'll be playing Chelsea win or draw in the afternoon.
Good luck today.
Tuesday 4/7 - PM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 1,
plays
Apparently, this Farnsworth chap isn't much for closing games. I'm looking forward to backing him 30-40 more times this season.
There are a couple more bookkeeping items to cover this evening. First, I'm trying to be somewhat anal about making sure I offer sides at Matchbook rather filling other's offers. If I make 500 bets during baseball season, which seems plausible, it's a swing of roughly 3.5x, which, given the record to right, might be nice to have come football season.
Also, be aware that Matchbook's baseball rake is different than other sports. If it were anything other than baseball, that swing above be 6x. Update your spreadsheets accordingly.
Finally, the flat betting concept does not explicitly deal with the Matchbook rake. I take the rake out after calculating how much to risk so the sum is 4x total (or 6x, at some point).
Plays
710p Washington +146 2x
805p Pittsburgh +146 2x
810p Seattle +100 2x
940p Colorado +143 2x
1005p Oakland +101 2x
I think this is like betting on Temple, Army, Baylor, Indiana, and Duke every week, right?
Leans
340p Colorado (Morales) +119 @ Arizona (Davis)
This line seems short to me, but I don't know a whole lot about either pitcher. I guess I'll find out tomorrow morning.
Streak for the Cash
705p Charlotte vs. Philadelphia
1010p St. Louis @ Phoenix
Current Streak: 2
The judges would also accept "Miami Heat" as an answer for tonight's 7p Streak selection. I'll be on the Blues for the late game.
Good luck tonight.
There are a couple more bookkeeping items to cover this evening. First, I'm trying to be somewhat anal about making sure I offer sides at Matchbook rather filling other's offers. If I make 500 bets during baseball season, which seems plausible, it's a swing of roughly 3.5x, which, given the record to right, might be nice to have come football season.
Also, be aware that Matchbook's baseball rake is different than other sports. If it were anything other than baseball, that swing above be 6x. Update your spreadsheets accordingly.
Finally, the flat betting concept does not explicitly deal with the Matchbook rake. I take the rake out after calculating how much to risk so the sum is 4x total (or 6x, at some point).
Plays
710p Washington +146 2x
805p Pittsburgh +146 2x
810p Seattle +100 2x
940p Colorado +143 2x
1005p Oakland +101 2x
I think this is like betting on Temple, Army, Baylor, Indiana, and Duke every week, right?
Leans
340p Colorado (Morales) +119 @ Arizona (Davis)
This line seems short to me, but I don't know a whole lot about either pitcher. I guess I'll find out tomorrow morning.
Streak for the Cash
705p Charlotte vs. Philadelphia
1010p St. Louis @ Phoenix
Current Streak: 2
The judges would also accept "Miami Heat" as an answer for tonight's 7p Streak selection. I'll be on the Blues for the late game.
Good luck tonight.
Tuesday 4/7 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 1,
plays
At the suggestion of Vegas Watch, I'm changing my wagering style for bases. For now, I think it makes more sense to use a true flat betting system. Otherwise, I'll be too dependent on my longshot dogs to come in (or heavy chalk, but I don't see myself playing much heavy chalk). That means a 2x play actually is (amount wagered) + (amount to win) = 4x. It's really not that big of a deal, but will probably save me a small amount of stress this season.
Plays
205p Kansas City +122 2x
Fading teams like the ChiSox and Angels will be common in April, I would imagine.
Leans
710p Washington (Olsen) +142 @ Florida (Johnson)
805p Houston (Rodriguez) +104 vs. Cubs (Dempster)
810p Seattle (Bedard) +103 @ Minnesota (Blackburn)
815p Pittsburgh (Snell) +140 @ St. Louis (Lohse)
940p Colorado (Jimenez) +144 @ Arizona (Haren)
1005p San Diego (Young) -113 vs. Dodgers (Wolf)
1005p Oakland (Cahill) +107 @ Anaheim (Moseley)
Washington, Pittsburgh, and Colorado are the strongest out of the bunch. The others will depend on what the baseball people think.
Streak for the Cash
245p Manchester United/Porto U2.5 goals (UEFA Champions Cup)
Current Streak: 0
I don't really want to put my streak on the line against my wager this afternoon. The under here seems anti-pub (not that I would know) and is -119 at Pinny, though the juice adjusted probability is only a little over 53%.
Good luck today.
Plays
205p Kansas City +122 2x
Fading teams like the ChiSox and Angels will be common in April, I would imagine.
Leans
710p Washington (Olsen) +142 @ Florida (Johnson)
805p Houston (Rodriguez) +104 vs. Cubs (Dempster)
810p Seattle (Bedard) +103 @ Minnesota (Blackburn)
815p Pittsburgh (Snell) +140 @ St. Louis (Lohse)
940p Colorado (Jimenez) +144 @ Arizona (Haren)
1005p San Diego (Young) -113 vs. Dodgers (Wolf)
1005p Oakland (Cahill) +107 @ Anaheim (Moseley)
Washington, Pittsburgh, and Colorado are the strongest out of the bunch. The others will depend on what the baseball people think.
Streak for the Cash
245p Manchester United/Porto U2.5 goals (UEFA Champions Cup)
Current Streak: 0
I don't really want to put my streak on the line against my wager this afternoon. The under here seems anti-pub (not that I would know) and is -119 at Pinny, though the juice adjusted probability is only a little over 53%.
Good luck today.
Monday 4/6 - PM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 1,
plays
Well, this has started splendidly.
Plays
810p Seattle +127 2x
905p Oakland +122 2x
I'm not sure how I missed Seattle today. Most non-sabermetricians are picking the Twinkies to win the AL Central and the Mariners were awful last year.
I tried floating some ridiculous Oakland number today before I left for work. That obviously panned out for me.
Leans
205p Kansas City (Meche) +126 @ White Sox (Buehrle)
405p Tampa Bay (Shields) +132 @ Boston (Beckett)
The evening posts are going to have leans for tomorrow's pre-6p games and will use Pinny lines. I'm pretty sure I like KC more than the Rays tomorrow.
Streak for the Cash
920p North Carolina vs. Michigan State
Current Streak: 3
I'll be rooting for Sparty, but come on.
The Masters
Sergio Garcia +3400 2x
Robert Allenby +10000 1x
Because why not, that's why. Of course, these are straight MoneyLine plays. Depending on the price I can find at Matchbook, I may tail The Saw's last outright as well.
Plays
810p Seattle +127 2x
905p Oakland +122 2x
I'm not sure how I missed Seattle today. Most non-sabermetricians are picking the Twinkies to win the AL Central and the Mariners were awful last year.
I tried floating some ridiculous Oakland number today before I left for work. That obviously panned out for me.
Leans
205p Kansas City (Meche) +126 @ White Sox (Buehrle)
405p Tampa Bay (Shields) +132 @ Boston (Beckett)
The evening posts are going to have leans for tomorrow's pre-6p games and will use Pinny lines. I'm pretty sure I like KC more than the Rays tomorrow.
Streak for the Cash
920p North Carolina vs. Michigan State
Current Streak: 3
I'll be rooting for Sparty, but come on.
The Masters
Sergio Garcia +3400 2x
Robert Allenby +10000 1x
Because why not, that's why. Of course, these are straight MoneyLine plays. Depending on the price I can find at Matchbook, I may tail The Saw's last outright as well.
Monday 4/6 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 1,
plays
I really have no idea what I am doing here, but the Wagerline and SIA numbers support me. I might actually be conservative with the afternoon games.
Plays
110p Cincinnati +150 2x
340p Colorado +161 2x
405p Baltimore +184 2x
415p Pittsburgh +172 2x
Passes: Washington, Tampa Bay
It's not going to shock me if other contrarians end up on my passes. I've absorbed a lot of information over the last two weeks, but I'm not going to be good at thinly slicing baseball lines for a few weeks.
Leans
705p Houston (Oswalt) -101 vs. Cubs (Zambrano)
905p Oakland (Braden) +135 @ Angels (Saunders)
Oakland is a must play and might be the first 3xer of baseball season. I could take or leave Houston.
Streak for the Cash
9a Norway vs. United States (Men's Curling)
110p Mets vs. Cincinnati
Current Streak: 2
Playing the Yankees is obviously dependent on the Mets/Reds getting done in a reasonable amount of time (Ed. Note: Obviously didn't happen). I'm also aware that my Streak plays are opposite my bets. If I got 1.5 wins in Streak to pick the Reds, I would.
Good luck today.
Plays
110p Cincinnati +150 2x
340p Colorado +161 2x
405p Baltimore +184 2x
415p Pittsburgh +172 2x
Passes: Washington, Tampa Bay
It's not going to shock me if other contrarians end up on my passes. I've absorbed a lot of information over the last two weeks, but I'm not going to be good at thinly slicing baseball lines for a few weeks.
Leans
705p Houston (Oswalt) -101 vs. Cubs (Zambrano)
905p Oakland (Braden) +135 @ Angels (Saunders)
Oakland is a must play and might be the first 3xer of baseball season. I could take or leave Houston.
Streak for the Cash
9a Norway vs. United States (Men's Curling)
110p Mets vs. Cincinnati
Current Streak: 2
Playing the Yankees is obviously dependent on the Mets/Reds getting done in a reasonable amount of time (Ed. Note: Obviously didn't happen). I'm also aware that my Streak plays are opposite my bets. If I got 1.5 wins in Streak to pick the Reds, I would.
Good luck today.
Sunday 4/5
,
Labels:
mlb week 1,
plays
I'm not expecting things to change a whole lot around here for bases. I should still be doing two posts a day - one before work and one after I get home. I suspect I'll be trailing Jonny and Vegas a lot more than I do in other sports, at least until I get my ears wet.
Plays
8p Atlanta +122 2x
All baseball plays will be on the moneyline unless otherwise noted. For games with positive juice, the units will be the amount risked. If the juice is negative, the units will be the amount I stand to win. This is the same way I've always done it, but it was never really important until now.
Streak for the Cash
7p Oklahoma vs. Louisville (WNCAA)
Current Streak: 0
The only other pick that makes sense is Oklahoma City, but they're only -125 at Pinny, whereas the Sooners are -175. If the women's game is over in time, I'll be on the Kings late.
Good luck tonight.
Plays
8p Atlanta +122 2x
All baseball plays will be on the moneyline unless otherwise noted. For games with positive juice, the units will be the amount risked. If the juice is negative, the units will be the amount I stand to win. This is the same way I've always done it, but it was never really important until now.
Streak for the Cash
7p Oklahoma vs. Louisville (WNCAA)
Current Streak: 0
The only other pick that makes sense is Oklahoma City, but they're only -125 at Pinny, whereas the Sooners are -175. If the women's game is over in time, I'll be on the Kings late.
Good luck tonight.
Reading Material
,
Labels:
academic articles,
contrarianism,
fiscal responsibility
One of the things I plan to do while I'm not gambling is... read about gambling. Sports gambling has taken a more academic flavor over the last several years. I've already documented some articles here, but since I plan on using the Googles effectively, I'll link to papers that I think are worthwhile to the mathematically inclined in this post. I'll be updating sporadically and infrequently.
Brandes Inst. - Non-techinical lit review. If you aren't good at the maths, just read this one
Levitt (2004) - Explains why contrarians often bet on dogs
Dare (2006) - Explains why sports betting is a poor investment using Kelly criterion
Fair and Oster (2005) - The books know more than anyone else
Paul and Weinbach (2007) - Follow up to Levitt (2004) using "real" data
Woodland and Woodland (2000) - Weak evidence for betting against winning streaks
Sapra (2008) - Wager against last year's "out of nowhere" teams in the NFL
Paul and Weinbach (2008) - Early forward line movement for dogs is profitable in bases
Abstract for you NBA bettors:
My basic commentary on all of these articles is that the markets are slightly inefficient, as we've already hypothesized. A simple system is not going to cut it to beat the books, which all of these papers have shown. There obviously is something to thinly slicing lines, if you assume we have enough knowledge about the sports we wager on to find bait lines. I would also suggest that the Paul and Weinbach (2007) paper shows that the betting percentages we all use may have more value than we currently attribute to them. Combining the two strategies in an intelligent and as yet undiscovered way will likely yield the best results.
I'll be away most of the weekend, so feel free to tell me why I'm an idiot and I'll likely agree with you on Sunday night.
Brandes Inst. - Non-techinical lit review. If you aren't good at the maths, just read this one
Levitt (2004) - Explains why contrarians often bet on dogs
Dare (2006) - Explains why sports betting is a poor investment using Kelly criterion
Fair and Oster (2005) - The books know more than anyone else
Paul and Weinbach (2007) - Follow up to Levitt (2004) using "real" data
Woodland and Woodland (2000) - Weak evidence for betting against winning streaks
Sapra (2008) - Wager against last year's "out of nowhere" teams in the NFL
Paul and Weinbach (2008) - Early forward line movement for dogs is profitable in bases
Abstract for you NBA bettors:
Price Setting in the NBA Gambling Market: Tests of the Levitt Model of Sportsbook Behavior
Levitt (2004) suggested that sportsbooks do not set prices in the NFL to clear markets, as was commonly assumed, but set prices to maximize profits. This paper uses actual betting data from four sportsbooks to test the Levitt (2004) hypothesis in the NBA. For a sample of the 2004-05 to 2006-07 seasons, it is shown that favorites receive a disproportionate share of NBA pointspread bets. In addition, the percentage of bets the favorite receives increases with each additional point of the pointspread. In the totals market, it is shown that overs receive a much higher percentage of bets compared to unders and the percentage bet on the over increases with each point of the total. Unlike the NFL, however, taking a contrarian position and betting against public sentiment is not found to win more often than implied by efficiency.
My basic commentary on all of these articles is that the markets are slightly inefficient, as we've already hypothesized. A simple system is not going to cut it to beat the books, which all of these papers have shown. There obviously is something to thinly slicing lines, if you assume we have enough knowledge about the sports we wager on to find bait lines. I would also suggest that the Paul and Weinbach (2007) paper shows that the betting percentages we all use may have more value than we currently attribute to them. Combining the two strategies in an intelligent and as yet undiscovered way will likely yield the best results.
I'll be away most of the weekend, so feel free to tell me why I'm an idiot and I'll likely agree with you on Sunday night.
Going Dark
,
Steve Fisher is a really smart coach. His defensive philosophy of allowing Baylor's best shooter to get wide open look after wide open look worked well in the second half.
I'm done with basketball for the year. I'll update the record later today. In the mean time, baseball starts on Sunday. Hopefully, our fortunes will change after a crappy football season and terrible March Madness. I'm going to recharge the batteries for the rest of the week and start anew on Sunday.
Good luck if you play anything the rest of the week.
I'm done with basketball for the year. I'll update the record later today. In the mean time, baseball starts on Sunday. Hopefully, our fortunes will change after a crappy football season and terrible March Madness. I'm going to recharge the batteries for the rest of the week and start anew on Sunday.
Good luck if you play anything the rest of the week.
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