It's NIT Tuesday

Because I am such a huuuuuuge fan of Penn State basketball, I'm heading up to the Garden tonight directly after work to watch my first game of the year in the NIT Semifinals.

Depending on the outcome of tonight's games, these may be my final basketball wagers of the year.

Plays
7p San Diego State +1 -101 2x
920p Notre Dame/Penn State U137.5 +124 2x
920p Notre Dame ML -172 3x to win 1.75x

The SDSU game is a legit contrarian play. The only thing anyone remembers about those two teams is that Baylor made it to the Big XII semis.

For the total, it is currently at 139.5 at Pinny with a 62/38 split on the over at Wagerline. The under appears to be slightly contrarian and undervalued. Are two points really worth over a quarter in juice?

The Notre Dame moneyline bet is me hedging my happiness. I'd be awful disappointed if I screwed up my schedule to see Penn State lose when I could have done the same thing from my couch.

Streak for the Cash isn't working. New game starts tomorrow anyway. I ended with a streak a three. Woo.

Good luck tonight.

More of the Same

I'd like to do some sort of theoretical post this week, but I don't really have any ideas at the moment. I have a big, grandiose idea to improve college basketball wagering, but I feel reasonably confident it will never come to fruition.

There isn't a whole lot else going on in the NBA/NHL/NCAA tonight. The only thing that could be remotely contrarian is O5.5 in NJ/NYR, and I might have to re-examine my life if I bet on a hockey total.

Streak for the Cash
245p Cambridge United (win) vs. Woking (English Conference)
730p Orlando vs. Miami
Current Streak: 3

Streak for the Cash might be it for me today. And since the game ends tomorrow, I'll definitely be emotionally invested in the outcomes of the games.

Orlando has zero chance of winning this game.

Good luck tonight.

I'm Bored

I have no desire whatsoever to touch the rest of this NCAA Tournament. Sparty is playable today, if you haven't had your will broken. On the other hand, I'd like to have some action before Tuesday's NIT/CBI games tip off.

Plays
5p Nashville +290 1x to win 2.9x
8p Colorado +236 1x to win 2.36x
Pass: Minnesota

Yes, that's right, hockey bets. I've been marginally following the league this year and know that Detroit is really good and Colorado is really bad. There isn't really much else you need to know about these wagers.

Streak for the Cash
220p Michigan State/Louisville U139.5 points
5p North Carolina/Oklahoma O163.5 points
8p New Orleans vs. San Antonio
Current Streak: 1

This total seems low given the way the rest of the second weekend has turned out. Of course, the Big Ten doesn't play offense (LULZ!). The line is down to 137.5 at Pinny, so whatever.

I've got no idea what to pick for the late hoops game. I'm going over on the assumption that the Sooners will put up some points, I guess, but 163.5 is a freaking lot.

Another coin flip upcoming. The split at Pinny is -115/+105 in favor of the Spurs. I'm taking the Hornets just so I can keep my contrarian card for the day.

Good luck today.

Wealth Destrutction

I would love to know how much money sharps all across Las Vegas and the world have lost over the last eight days. Four ones, two twos, two threes. For the second year in a row, the bracket has gone to complete chalk. On one hand, that should present a ton of value next year. On the other, my bankroll is paltry currently headed into baseball season. Of course, having to reload within the first year of starting a gambling blog would be ironically amusing.

There's not even a lot I can do about it. Who is left that is overvalued besides OU? I suppose you could look at Pitt -2 as a play today, and their Wagerline numbers somewhat support it, but it certainly doesn't feel right to me. I suppose there could be some value in an SDSU vs. Notre Dame final in the Garden Thursday, but otherwise it is just wait and see until April 5.

Streak for the Cash
11a Wales vs. Finland (World Cup Qualifer - UEFA Group 4)
440p UConn/Mizzou U149.5 points
Current Streak: 0

There is a not insignificant chance of a push here (+220) , but Wales is an overwheliming favorite in the match (+120 vs. +200) according to Sportsbook. Note: I didn't control for vig.

I actually thought about playing the under just to get some action today. This will have to do.

I'll be out most of the night, but if I can get TheFiancee's iPhone to work while I'm out, I plan on playing Pitt at 7p.

Good luck with whatever you play.

A Clarification

I should point out, from the post this morning, I think #1 is mainly responsible for the stuffy 2008-09. That doesn't mean that given the wealth of data available (records, units played, Wagerline, passes), I shouldn't do a post analysis on my results and attempt to find inefficiencies.

Streak for the Cash
10p Sacramento vs. Memphis
Current Streak: 0

Basically playing HCA here, since Sactown is a 3 point favorite. Whatever, we're playing for pride at this point anyway.

The Morning After

Nothing like another eight unit loss. I'm not even really all that angry. Either this is bad luck, variance's way of telling us that 2007-08 wasn't nearly as good as we'd hoped it was (or, if you're ML, 2005-06 and 2006-07 as well), or something is wrong with the system (not contrarianism, but the way it is employed). Those are really the three options at this point.

I'm passing everything on the card tonight. I'll probably just edit this post tonight for Streak for the Cash in the evening. The two golf plays in the morning/afternoon have very little edge.

Finally, if you really wanted to see a busted bracket, go look at the one I posted before the tournament started. When Gonzaga loses to UNC tonight, I'll be done. Not like done - I don't stand a chance of winning. I mean done - I can't gain another flipping point. KPom, you have wronged many this year.

Thursday 3/26

There really isn't a whole lot to say about tonight's games that hasn't been said in the rest of Contrarian World, other than these might be the only two plays of the Sweet Sixteen. Tomorrow's card looks entertaining, but completely unplayable.

Plays
7p Purdue +6.5 -101 5x - Who else is not shocked by this result?
10p Duke -3 +108 3x

These are both the right plays given the prices available. I hope my boss understands when I come into work with a hangover tomorrow after UConn wins by seven and Duke wins by two.

Streak for the Cash
8p Chicago vs. Miami (NBA)
Current Streak: 6

That's right, folks, I've got a red star next to my name. That makes me a slightly less than mediocre player!

Also, is ESPN giving people freebies since the game is almost over? Da Bulls are 6 point favorites, obviously something that is lost 82.7% of players. I guess Miami = Dwayne Wade = WINNAR!!1!ZOMG!!1!11!LOLZ!!!111!!

Sorry for going all TBL on you. Good luck tonight.

Leans 3/26

I desperately needed last night for my mental health. I was posting stupidly at some new blog about how it could be a good idea to make -EV bets (though I'm not totally convinced for the biggest of futures that it is necessarily stupid). I was betting on CBI games. More importantly, I was unprepared for the NCAA tournament. Now I can go in with a much clearer head after last week's debacle.

Leans
7p Purdue +6.5 vs. UConn
10p Duke -2 vs. Nova

Both of these looked like slam dunks when they were released. Nothing has really happened to change my mind about them.

Streak for the Cash
830a Pat Perez lower front nine score than Charles Howell III
Current Streak: 5

Going straight from Moneyline's mouth on this one. If ML or The Saw post anything about Tiger O/U 68.5, I'll probably play it, otherwise that'll be it for the early Streak.

Wednesday 3/25

Don't get old. Your knees will thank you.

Plays
9p San Diego State -3.5 -105 3x
10p Oregon State +3.5 +101 2x

One of these has to hit eventually, right? Why do I feel like I'm betting on black after 12 reds have hit in a row?

Streak for the Cash
7p Notre Dame vs. Kentucky (NIT)
9p SDSU vs. St Marys (NIT)
Current Streak: 4

I know UK was a lean this morning, but the line has moved a point since then. Obviously on SDSU later, if I can. Otherwise, I'll play the Suns.

Leans 3/25

When Notre Dame and Penn State end up in the NIT Final Four and Syracuse and Villanova head to Detroit, I'm just going to laugh. Worst. March. Ever.

Leans
7p UK +2.5 @ ND
9p SDSU -3.5 vs. St. Mary's
10p Ore St +3.5 vs. Stanford

I'm looking forward to continuing the losing streak tonight with these garbage teams. SDSU stuck out at me the most.

Streak for the Cash
230p SC Rhinedorf Altach (win or draw) vs. Kapfenberg SV (Austrian Bundesliga)
Current Streak: 2

I have no idea why typing Bundesliga causes me so much amusement in the morning.

Jinx

At least it was an outright loss.

Tuseday 3/24 - The Return of Trisomy 21

I love Penn State. It's literally my favorite place to be and where I hope to raise a family someday. I have absolutely nothing negative to say about it and am a rabid fan of all of the university's sports teams.

But that's not going to stop me from making fun of homers on Penn State's Scout Premium Message Board about tonight's PSU/UF basketball game where Penn State is an 11 point dog.

Just suprised [sic] the number is that high considering Florida has done nothing this year. Jagd, one quality OCC win and played in a terrible conference.

Penn State Top OOC games by KPom:

L vs. (50) Temple
L vs. (71) URI (in Philly)
W @ (94) GaTech
W vs. (140) Mt. St. Mary's
W vs. (168) Sacred Heart

Florida Top OOC games by KPom:

L vs. (12) Syracuse (CBE in KC)
W vs. (15) Washington (CBE in KC)
L @ (39) Fla St
W vs. (80) NC State
W vs. (127) Bradley

And Florida's only quality OOC win (in fact, only quality win the entire season) came on a neutral court against a Washington team that was 2-2 at the time,

Obviously, Washington's record at the time is more relevant than being a 4-seed in the varsity tournament.

The line was said to be down to 9 (dont quote me on that) since I pulled it off the hoops board. They obviously get 3-5 points for being at home. So that makes them a 4 point favorite on a neutral court.

The line opened at 11, is currently 10.5-11 and hasn't dropped below 10.5. Florida would be favored by more than 4 in Happy Valley. Also, sorry for quoting you on that.

Vegas lines are based off how people bet, so yes.

Clearly.

Is Florida even motivated in this game? Coming from a school that has won two football national championships and two basketball national championships in the very recent past, will anyone care about a home NIT game?

I can't tell.

Plays
Florida -11 +109 3x
Pass: Auburn

Do I really need to comment more? Sure! KPom has this game as a 9 point spread, but Cornley (as mentioned previously) and Battle (runner up BigTen POY) are both banged up, accounting for the difference.

Streak for the Cash
9p Penn State/Florida U141.5 Points
Current Streak: 1

More anti-pub chalk for me. UPDATE: Thanks for Vegas pointing out in the comments that the Auburn/Baylor game was actually a prop for most 3-pointers made. I'm not sure if it is my three year old computer or just a coding glitch by ESPN, but I had to do a little searching to find that answer. As always, I'm an idiot.

Also, I'm glad it took me a month of playing to notice there was an article in there. I read good.

Leans 3/24

I'm looking forward to fading the alma mater for the third straight game in the JV tourney.

Leans
7p Auburn -3.5 vs. Baylor
9p Florida -11 vs. PSU

HCA plus a woefully overrated Penn State squad (KPom has it at 9, but Cornley is banged up for Penn State) equals a likely play for me. Auburn, less so.

Streak for Cash
345p Carlisle United (win) vs. Hereford United (English League 1)
Current Streak: 0

Carlisle is -134 at Pinny. I don't even know what a League 1 is.

Completely Unrelated

If you get the joke in the name of this blog, click here and scroll down about 1/4 of the way down the page. Note: only for people aged 25 and older.

Record Update - 23 March 2009

Holy crap! Did I forget how to gamble this week?

I still think the best way to have a chance to win your tournament bracket every year -- after the research the NCAA does putting the brackets together -- is to take the team with the better seed in every game. That wouldn't be as fun, but it would give you the best shot to win.

Well, I guess if Peter King says it, it has to be true. I'm done with this contrarian (stuff).

In other news, I'm passing everything in the NIT/CBI/CIT tonight. I really don't care and I'm depressed after making the above graph.

Streak for Cash
7p Creighton vs. Kentucky (NIT)
1130p St Mary's vs. Davidson (NIT)
Current Streak: 1

I guess I'll take the anti-pub chalk tonight. Whatever.

Revised Sweet 16 log5 Predictions

Leans for Monday: Vermont, Crate, Wich St.

I'll update the record tonight.

Sweet 16 log5 Predictions

This isn't updated with today's information in it. I'll put up another post in the morning before work with updated probabilities. Still, if you are looking for value, this ought to help. Vegas will have a better version up soon.



You can get better than +283 on Zags ML vs. UNC at the moment, which is hilarious.

Sunday 3/22 - Evening

This has been an unmitigated disaster of an opening weekend.

My head is in circles over UNC -8.5 vs. Zags next week. The KPom line is only UNC -1.7. I'm probably going to end up on Zags.

Plays
Passes: USC, Marq

Lack of confidence plus not being entirely comfortable with these plays put them in the pass category. You can thank me later when they hit.

Streak for Cash
5p Michigan State vs. USC
8p Japan vs. USA (WBC)
Current Streak: 2

I've got no problem taking public 4-point chalk in Streak.

After the late games are over, I'll have the updated Pomeroy log5 predictions up on the site, so stop back tonight if you are interested in those sorts of things.

Sunday 3/22 - Afternoon

Wow. The only way yesterday could have possibly been worse is if Memphis, Gonzaga, or Duke outright lost.

Plays
1210p Arizona State +2 +105 5x
1210p Arizona State +2.5 -106 5x
1210p Syracuse -2.5 +102 5x
220p Wisconsin +3.5 +103 3x
240p Cleveland State +2.5 +106 5x

I was quite obviously an idiot last night. I floated Arizona State at two different numbers and they got filled at almost exactly the same time. My price on Syracuse is less than ideal.

Streak for Cash
930a NAC Breda (win or draw) vs. Ajax (Dutch Eredivisie)
1p Detroit vs. Miami
Current Streak: 0

I need to stop putting things in before I go to bed. That said, my streak is at zero, so it doesn't really matter.

Lunch and things came up, so I missed the Pens. Going with the Pistons instead.

Sunday Evening Leans
450p Marq +3.5 vs. Mizz
5p USC +4 vs. Sparty

Marquette looks like the right play, but I really don't want to wager on them at a short number.

Good luck today.

Saturday 3/21 - Evening

That UCLA game was awesome. I don't see any way that Nova doesn't come out of the East. [/sarcasm]

Plays
550p Michigan +6.5 +113 5x
810p Gonzaga -11.5 +106 5x
815p Duke -7.5 -105 3x

Michigan +6 +124 was available at Matchbook when I placed my wagers. It was mathematically correct, but I couldn't justify the mental anguish it would have caused me.

I really hope Duke wins by 8 so I can hammer them again next week in Boston.

Streak for Cash
810p Gonzaga larger margin of victory than Duke
Current Streak: 0

The rationale should be obvious given the point spreads above.

Sunday Afternoon Leans
1210p Rizo St +2 vs. Cuse
220p Wisky +4 vs. X
240p Cleve St +2.5 vs. Rizo

Those two three lines are absolutely hilarious.
UPDATE: Pinny had the times wrong. Wisky was added for tomorrow.

Good luck tonight.

Saturday 3/21 - Afternoon

Solid night last night. Not a lot going on in the afternoon.

Plays
105p UCLA +2 +103 3x
105p UCLA +2.5 -102 2x
Pass: Memphis

Obviously, I floated some UCLA last night unsure if they would be a big play. Memphis was a play at 8. At -9.5 -108, I'll pass. I'm looking forward to them winning by 15.

Streak for Cash
320p Memphis larger margin of victory than Connecticut
Current Streak: 0

I went to Betfair thinking they would have the sharpest lines for the Rugby match. That was clearly a bad idea.

Saturday Evening Leans
550p Mich +7.5 vs. OU
810p Zags -11.5 vs. W Ky
815p Duke -7.5 vs. Texas

That also happens to be the order from strongest to weakest. Good luck today.

Friday 3/20 - Evening

I felt really intelligent for bumping up my unit sizes after that first set of games.

Plays
710p Morehead State +21 +100 3x
940p Cleveland State +7.5 +101 3x
955p Wisconsin +2.5 +101 5x

All of these got filled up before halftime of the first set of games. Better prices have been/are available.

I'm trying to show some fiscal restraint, but I really like Wisky. No one is giving them a shot because they play ugly basketball and FSU beat GT and a banged up UNC to get to the ACC finals.

Streak for Cash
720p USC vs. Boston College
955p Wisconsin vs. Florida State
Current Streak: 3

BC is chicken garbage. I'm leaning toward tOSU for the late games. There is a small chance it could be Wisky.

The line movement confused me with the Buckeyes. Using straight Pomeroy, tOSU is the better choice, but I like Wisky more here from a gambling perspective.

Saturday Afternoon Leans
105p UCLA +2 vs. Nova
330p Memphis -9 vs. UMd

CBS sets the Saturday games up as 1-2-3-2, so there are only three games that tip before 5p. I'll definitely be on UCLA. Memphis is a bit more iffy.

Friday 3/20 - Afternoon

Unit size is temporarily going up. The NCAA Tournament often represents value and I want to capitalize on it. Or go broke. Either way. Standard plays will be 3x and large plays will be 5x.

Plays
1215p Stephen F Austin +11.5 -101 5x
1230p North Dakota State +10 -113 3x
3p E Tennessee State +19.5 -103 5x
3p Cornell +12.5 +101 3x

Not the price I was hoping for on the Bison. I'm going to start floating some stuff for the evening games.

I only know where one of these schools I'm wagering on is located. Also, I can only name one player total on any of the four squads. That's a solid gambling strategy right there.

Streak for Cash
1225p Tennessee vs. Oklahoma State
3p WVU/Dayton U129.5 Points
Current Streak: 1

I hate Tennessee and Bruce Pearl with a white hot passion. They are gambler's kryptonite. Fortunately, this is only "Streak" and not real money.

Did you think I was kidding about Bruce Pearl. Fantastic set out of a timeout there, coach.

The total is 126.5 at Pinny for the 'Eers/Flyers game.

Friday Evening Leans
710p Morehead +21 vs. Ville
940p Cleve St +7.5 vs. Wake
955p Wisky +2.5 vs. FSU

Wow, look. No NIT leans tonight. Also, Wisky has 5x potential tonight.

Good luck today.

Thursday 3/19 - Evening

California is terrible. It was a pretty standard opening session, though. I'm expecting more big time plays in Round 2.

I floated all of these this morning except UCLA and Illinois, so the juice may be different than what is available now. I'm going to have to put some more effort into figuring out the optimum way to work with Matchbook's new policy.

Plays
710p Minnesota +4 +106 2x
725p Akron +13.5 +104 2x
950p UCLA -8 -106 2x
955p Illinois -5 -104 2x
7p New Mexico +5 +105 2x
7p Rhode Island +1 +106 2x

Believe it or not, New Mexico was the closest to a 3x play. If it were the regular season, it definitely would have been. I'm not as comfortable making big plays in the NIT.

Streak for Cash
UPDATE: TheFiancee isn't feeling well, so I will be around a computer
7p Notre Dame vs. New Mexico
950p UCLA larger margin of victory than Illinois
Current Streak: 2

I won't be around a computer tonight, so the only play is UCLA.

Here's to hoping for a good middle.

Friday Afternoon Leans
1215p SFA +11.5 vs. Cuse
1230p NDSU +9.5 vs. Kansas
1230p USU +4.5 vs. Marq
3p ETSU +20 vs. Pitt
3p Cornell +12.5 vs. Mizz
3p WVU -9 vs. Dayton

USU and WVU made the initial list, but after checking consensus numbers quickly, there is almost no chance I play them tomorrow. SFA, NDSU, and ETSU have 3x potential tomorrow.

Good luck the rest of the night.

Thursday 3/19 - Afternoon

Sweet. March Madness begins today. Head over to Vegas Watch for a live chat (no swearing, though) at 12.

Plays
1225p CS-Northridge +19.5 +111 2x
255p California -2 +103 2x
Pass: BYU

Obviously, Matchbook's new policy favors people who float bets. If I am getting positive juice, I'm not terribly worried about it. Essentially, the North Ridge bet above is +110. However, when juice is less favorable and there is some time before the game, I'm going to float some orders. All it means is that I'm going to post the would-be bet and then edit the post as soon as it gets filled.

Streak for Cash
1230p BYU vs. Texas A&M
255p Cal vs. Maryland
Current Streak: 0

Anti-public and favored by 2.5? Yes, please. Cal, obviously, in game number two.

Thursday Evening Leans
710p Minny +4 vs. Texas
950p UCLA -8.5 vs. VCU
710p Michigan +5 vs. Clemson
955p Illinois -5.5 vs. W Ky
725p Akron +13.5 vs. Zags
7p NMex +5 @ ND (NIT)
7p URI +1 vs. PSU (NIT)

What, did you think I'd forget about the NIT tonight? New Mexico is more likely than URI for the JV tourney. All of the NCAA plays are likely, except the Skunkbears.

Good luck today.

am19psu's Bracket Revealed

Not that anyone is in the type of pool I am.

Structure: 1-3-7-16-25-40, multiplied by seed.

If you want to see what a bracket should look like if you are trying maximize the number of wins, go here.

(Note: I wrote this post before other good brackets were posted.)

Wednesday 3/18

Running a little short on time tonight. I don't have anything witty or interesting to say. You know, like normal.

Plays
8p Jacksonville +14.5 +100 2x

Is SIA not showing betting trends for the NIT?

Streak for Cash
7p Providence vs. Miami (FL) (NIT)
10p Anaheim vs. Nashville (NHL)
Current Streak: 1

I actually like the Thunder a bit more as contrarian chalk, but I want to take some Quack later.

Thursday Afternoon Leans
1220p LSU -2 vs. Butler
1230p BYU -2.5 vs. Texas A&M
1225p CS-N +20 vs. Memphis
3p Cal -1.5 vs. UMd

At first glance, that seems like a lot of chalk to eat, but looking at last year's profitable opening weekend, short chalk paid off quite well (7-2 ATS). Of course, as the entire 2008-09 gambling season has shown, past results are not well correlated with future events.

Leans 3/18

There are some horrible CBI and CIT games out there. Who watches that junk?

I took off work Thursday and Friday because I'm a complete degenerate. My plan is to do two posts a day during the tournament, one for the afternoon session and one for the evening. Those posts will also contain leans for the following session. The first of those type of posts will be up tonight.

Leans
7p Duq +8 @ VaTech
7p Provo -2.5 vs. MiaFL
8p Jville +14.5 @ Fla
8p Ill St +6.5 vs. K-State

I'm not nearly as enamored with any of these as I was about the games last night. I may pass the whole card.

Streak for Cash
230p SK Sturm Graz (win or draw) vs. FC Karnten (Austrian Bundesliga)
Current Streak: 0

Obviously, this is a straight line play.

Seeding Matters, Part 2

Yesterday, I discussed whether being a top seed affects your chances of winning the national championship and the results were pretty clear that it was. What was less clear was why. Is the draw from a 2-seed that much more difficult to navigate than a 1-seed? It turns out that this year, more than most, that the twos' draws are ridiculously more difficult.

Vegas already touched on this today, but the 6-line is incredibly tough this year. UCLA, WVU, Arizona State, and Marquette most likely represent the toughest 6-line the committee has ever put together, at least from a pythagorean perspective. Those 6-seeds - particularly UCLA, WVU, and ASU - absolutely destroy the probabilities of their respective twos and threes making it to Detroit.

To illustrate how strong the sixes are, I re-seeded each of the regions by Pomeroy pyth and simulated how the tournament would play out, along with calculating the change in probability from the real bracket to this simulated one. The results are below.

Midwest:



West:



South:




East:



I had really hoped to show that teams that were underseeded saw their probabilities for winning go up if properly seeded, and vice versa. What I really showed was how important it was that UCLA, WVU, and ASU were underseeded. Those teams that are unlucky enough to face those three early on see their win probabilties sky rocket when moved away. Likewise, teams that would be matched up with the sixes would see their win probabilities fall if the committee used Pomeroy for developing the S-Curve.

What does it all mean? Seeding is important, obviously. However, if the committee significant underseeds or overseeds a team, it can have drastic effects down the bracket for other schools' chances of cutting down the nets.

Tuesday 3/17

The NIT kicks off tonight with a couple of decent tilts. I went back and looked at my data from last year and I didn't play a single game in the JV set. Hopefully, contrarianism still works.

Also, Matchbook's new rake policy has gone into effect. Make sure you update your if statements in Excel accordingly.

Plays
8p George Mason +5.5 -101 2x
9p UAB +6 +103 2x
10p New Mexico -7.5 -101 2x
11p Washington State +4 +101 3x

Everything is pretty straightforward here. It amazes me every year how much name recognition matters this late in the season.

Streak for Cash
7p South Carolina vs. Davidson (NIT)
11p St. Mary's vs. Washington State (NIT)
Current Streak: 1

Why is Davidson, a team that lost three games in the Southern Conference and a 3.5 point dog, receiving 70% of streakers' action?

I didn't even get the chance to play the under. Oh well. I'm hoping for a nice middle out west. I'm sure that will happen.

Leans 3/17

I don't remember playing the NIT heavily the last few years, but I think there is value in some of the lines this year. When I'm 1-7 -12x heading into the tournament, everyone can laugh at me.

Leans
7p SoCar -3.5 vs. Davidson
7p Niagara -4 vs. URI
8p Mason +6 @ PSU
9p UAB +5.5 @ ND
10p NMex -8 vs. Neb
11p Wazzu +4.5 @ Marys

With only 13 games on the card, that seems like too many leans and probably too much chalk. UAB and Wazzu are the only sure bets on there.

Streak for Cash
1030a Newry (win or draw) vs. Institute (Irish Premier League)
345p Arsenal/Hull City O3.5 (FA Cup)
Current Streak: 0

I couldn't even find this game at Pinnacle; I had to go to Sportsbook to get some lines. Assuming they know what they are talking about - and it's the Irish Premier League, why wouldn't they - SB gives Newry a 67.8% chance of winning or drawing. I feel like I should have typed that up as drawring just to get the proper English pronunciation. Also, I'm sure there will be no drinking or fighting at this match today.

I threw the other soccer over in at work. Like it really matters with my awful streak.

Seeding Matters

Initially, I had planned to write up some leans posts for the first round of the tournament. Apparently, I was slow on the draw. But, that's ok. There is something else I wanted to address.

Yesterday, nvr1983, from the excellent college hoops blog Rush The Court, claimed in his 3:55 update that a #1 seed is more likely to advance to the Final Four (or Sweet 16) because they are a better team than the #2. While certainly that can and does play the primary role, seeding itself is a secondary factor.

Below are the probabilities of winning the national championship for all eight of the 1-seeds and 2-seeds and what their probabilities would be if we switched them within the region, leaving everything else the same. For example, in the Midwest, the value of Louisville 1-Seed is their current chance of winning it all. Louisville 2-Seed represents the chance of winning the national title from Michigan State's side of the bracket. Sparty 2-Seed is Michigan State's current chances of winning the national title. Sparty 1-Seed would be Michigan State's probability of cutting down the nets if they had Louisville's draw. I think that makes sense.

Midwest:


West:


South:


East:


Since some teams are better than others (cough, memphisoklahoma, cough), it's better to look at the percent differences to gauge how much of an effect seeding has on a team's chances.

The difference is most striking in the Midwest. Since Louisville's draw is so much easier than Sparty's, Michigan State's championship probabilities go up by a third and the Pitinos' chances go down by 15%.

Leans for tomorrow's NIT games will be up tomorrow morning.

Streak for Cash
8p New Orleans vs. Houston
Current Streak: 0

NCAA Tournament log5 Predictions

Before the conference tournaments, I posted the log5 predictions for each of the eight majors. These are the probabilities of each team advancing to the next round. For example, the number under Sweet 16 is the probability of advancing from the Sweet 16 to the Elite 8.

The blue and green columns are the fair value price for getting to the Final Four and winning the championship, respectively. Future bets with better juice than the numbers below are likely good wagers.

Keep in mind, this is based off the Pomeroy pyth metric and is not altered in any way. As before, Vegas Watch will do this better later in the week with sportsbook adjustments.

Midwest:


West:


South:


East:

Record Update - 15 March 2009

This was easily the highest volume week of the year, which is nice that it coincided with a winning percentage over 50%. What's most interesting is that I went 7-0 in 3x plays.



I don't really feel like playing Duke again today. I'm just going to enjoy the games.

Come back right after the brackets are announced. I've got templates made and I should have the log5 projections up within a few minutes of CBS announcing them.

Streak for Cash
11a France vs. England (Rugby Union Six Nations)
1p Duke larger margin of victory than Tennessee
4p Cuba vs. Japan (World Baseball Classic)
9p Shaquille O'Neal more points than Stephen Jackson
Current Streak: 0

Obviously, I have no idea about rugby. However, France is -113 at Pinny and only 4.8% of people are on them at ESPN. Nothing else jumps out early.

Hey look! I get to fade Dice-K three weeks earlier than I thought.

Conference Tourney Saturday Live Blog/Chat

Picks are in the post below the live chat.

Saturday 3/14

Action is getting a little lighter with the tournaments nearing their completion. I'm sure I'll find a way to sneak Duke -7 onto my card.

Earlies (11a-159p)
1p Mississippi State +3.5 -106 2x
130p North Carolina -9 +110 2x

Mississippi State is a 3x play in a vacuum. The SEC is probably total garbage, so it's not totally analogous to Depaul Thursday or Baylor last night in my mind, but the win over SoCar gave me enough pause to slide it back to a 2x.

Middays (2p-359p)
None

Appetizers (4p-559p)
4p Duke -9 -111 2x

Dessert (6p-759p)
6p USC +1.5 +103 2x
6p San Diego State -1 +103 2x

I changed my mind about a lot of things in the last few hours. This will be it unless I really feel like Nevada tonight.

Nightcaps (8p-12a)
Pass: Nevada

I was really looking for a reason to play the Pack. I guess I'll just have to settle for Streak.

Streak for Cash
130p North Carolina larger margin of victory than Michigan State
6p USC vs. Arizona State
10p Nevada vs. Utah State
Current Streak: 0

I thought about playing Tiger U67.5, but I didn't know how long a round of professional golf takes and I like this play better.

How the hell was UNC a push? I'm just guessing on USC.

Friday 3/13 - PM

I'm satisfied with 2-1 +3x this afternoon. I've got another huge card tonight, relative to the number of games. It really shouldn't be all that surprising and I think MoneyLine had the best quote surrounding the phenomenon:

I feel like a total fucking idiot playing so many games, but really, these cards and the first 2 rounds of NCAA's probably provide more opportunity for us than any other time of year aside from maybe bowl season.

Lots of extra square action + inability of squares to evaluate teams correctly = value for contrarians.

Plays
630p Temple +4.5 -108 2x
9p Duquesne +2.5 +100 3x
9p San Diego State +2 +105 3x
9p Arizona State -1 +102 3x
930p Duke -10 -104 2x
930p West Virginia -6.5 +101 2x
Passes: Baylor, Nova, UCLA

I struggled with making WVU a 2x or 3x. I've been going conservative on coin flips, and I didn't think it was worth making an exception here.

Streak for Cash
930p West Virginia vs. Syracuse
Current Streak: 0

This is easily the most lopsided game I've seen on Streak since I got into it last week.

If my streak was at 0 and I was going to be around a computer tonight, I would play the Raptors, but that is a real weak lean. Given how strong WVU is, if you even have 1, I would pass the 7p games.

Friday 3/13 - AM

I really can't complain about going 5-4 +5x last night. I just wish I could have stayed up to watch the 6 OT epic.

Plays
12p Minnesota +6 2x
230p Georgia Tech +5 +104 3x
330p Mississippi State +1.5 +102 2x

I had to float some Minny again this morning. Same story as yesterday, check RMMB if you really care about how much juice I'm paying.

Leans
630p Mich +2.5 vs. Ill
630p Temple +4.5 vs. X
7p Baylor +3 vs. Texas
7p SDSU +1.5 vs. BYU
9p ASU -1 vs. Wash

The last two on that list are a lot stronger than the previous three.

Streak for Cash
12p Lawrence Westbrook (MIN) over Raymar Morgan (MSU) in total points scored
Current Streak: 2

I was busy at work and didn't get F$U in. Since I am headed out tonight, I am only going to play the Eers.

Thursday 3/12 - PM

At least the Las Vegas Sports Consultants screwing around only cost me two units (Baylor, K-State). It's not like my mediocre record could have used it.

530p Stanford +5.5 +106 2x
630p Duquesne +3 +110 2x
7p West Virginia +4 +110 3x
7p NC State +2.5 +100 2x
7p Oklahoma State +5 -105 3x
9p Richmond +4.5 -107 2x
9p USC ML -120 2x
930p Syracuse +5 -106 3x
930p Virginia +4.5 +103 2x

Where did that card come from? I haven't had a wagering explosion like that in some time.

That USC line is right. Matchbook currently has -1.5 -109. The ML -120 is actually a better mathematical expectation.

Streak for Cash
735p Vanderbilt vs. Alabama
10p Cleveland @ Phoenix
Current Streak: 1

I'm looking forward to another one of these garbage three point favorites losing outright. Looks like Lebron late tonight.

Good luck. I'm certainly going to need it.

Thursday 3/12 - AM

I realize it sounds stupid for me to complain about this, but what the hell are the books waiting for in not opening lines in the A10, BE, B12, or MWC games? AFA, K-St, and SLU are all potential plays. Fortunately, TheFiancee has off today, so I should be able to monitor the lines and have her place the wagers. I doubt she'll update my blog, so you'll have to pay attention over at RMMB.

Plays
12p Northwestern +2 2x
230p Iowa +5.5 2x
230p Georgia Tech +9.5 2x

I'm having to float things again this morning because the markets are such garbage right now. For example, the split at MB for the GT/Clem game right now is -110/-106. Maybe I'm spoiled, but I'm not playing an eight cent line in the age of Matchbook. In any case, I'll be on these three games for sure, and possibly SLU, K-St, and AFA. Check RMMB for details.

Leans
7p NC State +2 vs. UMd
930p UVa +4.5 vs. BC
530p UNLV -4 vs. SDSU
9p USC vs. Cal

Plus, of course, all the A10, BE, B12, and MWC games that have yet to be listed. This really pisses me off. I'm a degenerate, goddammit.

Streak for Cash
12p Miami (FL) vs. Virginia Tech
230p Villanova vs. Marquette
Current Streak: 1

I don't want to play the total in the Iowa/Michigan game this afternoon, and I won't unless my streak goes back to zero (lean: under). You can look at the line when it opens and figure out which side, if any, of Marq/Nova I might be on.

This is stupid.

Good luck today.

Wednesday 3/11 - PM

I go into a meeting this afternoon, Charlotte is up 7 at the half. I leave work, Charlotte is down 2 at the under 12. I get home, they've lost by 10. Awesome.

930p Texas Tech +6.5 +102 2x
Pass: Oregon

I suspect business will pick up tomorrow with the Big XII, Pac 10 and Big East quarters.

Streak for Cash
7p West Virginia Winning Margin over McAlarney/Ayers (ND) 3-pters made
1130p Wazzu/Oregon U122.5 Points
Current Streak: 2

WTF is this prop? Coin flip city.

Good luck tonight with whatever you are playing.

Wednesday 3/11 - AM

In a vacuum, Depaul seems like an obvious play. Getting 9 from a bubble team today seems quite similar to the obvious play yesterday of getting 9 from a bubble team. Something is making me leary of playing the Demons again and I can't put my finger on it. Good luck if you take them.

Plays
230p Charlotte +4 -102 2x
5p Air Force +1 +107 2x
Pass: Depaul

I've got some Charlotte floating out there. I'm hoping it gets picked up. Unfortunately, I can't edit the blog from work. If you check over at RMMB, I can post there and I will make sure it goes up before game time.

I had the AFA line wrong when I posted it this morning. It was +1, not +2.

Leans
930p TTech +6.5 vs. aTm
1130p Oregon +9 vs. Wazzu

Not much to see here. Garbage teams catching short numbers against teams near the bubble are going to be plays for the most part.

Streak for Cash
12p Depaul/Providence U147.5 Points
3p Texas' Winning Margin over Dwight Thorne II Points
Current Streak: 0

Why does ESPN keep setting these totals 3-5 points higher than Vegas?

Tuesday 3/10 - PM

I'm glad March got that out of its system. In my conference bracket pool, I had GTown to the Big East semifinals. Whoops.

930p South Florida +4.5 +102 2x
Pass: Cleve St

I'm mildly interested in the Vikings tonight. If they win, that's one less at large spot for the Nittany Lions.

Streak for Cash
345p Real Madrid W/D vs. Liverpool (UEFA Champions Cup)
7p Rutgers/Notre Dame U141.5 Points
9p Cleveland State/Butler U124.5 Points
Current Streak: 2

I'm really glad I rushed around at work to get the Real play in. I forget what it's like to have my streak at 2.

Pinny has the first Big East O/U at 137.5. That easy enough.

If the first Big East game gets over quick enough, I'd like to get right on the under in the Horizon League championship (119.5 at Pinny, 124.5 at ESPN). Failing that, I'll be on the Rainbows (marginally anti-pub one point favorite).

Tuesday 3/10 - AM

Lots of things going on here this morning. Let's just get right to it.

Plays
12p Depaul +8 +106 2x

Why wouldn't I start off conference week with a short 0-16 dog?

Leans
9p Cleve St +5.5 @ Butler
930p USF vs. Hall

I might be out thinking myself with Georgetown, but I feel pretty confident that they are underrated at the moment. I don't actually think that 5.5 is shaded (Johnnies get some HCA) and am looking forward to betting on an anti-pub Gtown +3 in Rd 2.

Streak for Cash
12p Depaul/Cincy U129.5 Points

The O/U is 127.5 at Pinny right now. I don't need much else. If I get the opportunity at work (unlikely due to meetings all day), I would really want to play the Real Madrid W/D since that has a 60% change of hitting according to Pinny.

Good luck and I'll be back tonight.

Monday 3/9

I got nothing. I appreciate the sentiment of the people on the Mocs tonight, but I really don't need to sweat out the SoCon championship. Good luck if you play them.

Streak For Cash
7p Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Rangers
10p Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trail Blazers
Current Streak: 0

I actually think Siena is the better overall play tonight, but it would be the only game I could play. By getting Carolina in for 7p, I'll be able to play the Lakers at 10p.

Conference Tournament log5 Projections - Part 2

In Part 1, I posted the A10, Big East, Big XII, MWC, and Pac 10. Today, the ACC, SEC, and Big Ten have posted their brackets. Recall, juice better than fair value is likely a good wager.

ACC:


Big Ten:


SEC:


The Penn State odds make me sad.

As if you had to ask, I'll have the odds for March Madness posted Sunday night.

Leans 3/9

The Colonial, West Coast, Metro Atlantic and Southern Conferences all have their championship games tonight. Unfortunately, no lines have been set yet, so it's kind of hard to have leans. Judging by the teams that are in each one, I doubt I'll have a play there. The #1 play would have been a Davidson fade, but since they lost to CoC last night, that's not even on the table.

Streak for Cash
2p AGF Aarhus vs. Vejle (Danish SAS-Ligaen)
Current Streak: 0

I don't even really know what I just typed. Go bold team.

Record Update - 8 Mar 2009

Betting on sports is stupid. I would love to see the sports books' bottom lines this year. Either I am better off flipping a coin or they are having a rough year, as well.



Conference tournament week has historically been a good week for contrarians. Hopefully, that continues this year.

Conference Tournament log5 Projections - Part 1

Since the Atlantic 10, Big East, Big XII, MWC, and Pac 10 have their conference tournament brackets out already, I figured it would be instructive to put together the probabilities of each team advancing in their brackets. The numbers in the graphs below show the log5 likelihood of each team advancing in each round of their conference tournament. The last column converts that probability into juice. If you can find futures with better juice than the fair value, that likely represents a good bet.

Vegas Watch will do this better later in the week. My numbers will differ slightly than his because he is adjusting the Pomeroy numbers subjectively, which is probably a good thing from a wagering perspective. My results come straight from the "Pyth" column in Pomeroy's standings.

Atlantic 10:


Big East:


Big XII:


MWC:


Pac 10:


I'll do the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC tomorrow once their conference tournaments are set.

Sunday 3/8

The oddsmakers certainly don't seem interested in taking a lot of stands this weekend. I can't find a college game I like today. I'm just going be happy with yesterday's profits and get ready for Championship Week.

Streak For Cash
1p Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic
10p South Alabama vs. Troy (Sun Belt Quarterfinals)
Current Streak: 1

The Italian soccer play didn't go so well this morning. This is a better play anyway, seeing that Boston is a three point favorite. I'm not entirely sure what else to play, if anything, on the Streak card today.

Playing the Jaguars is a marginally contrarian play. South Alabama is favored by 1 and Troy is marginally public. It doesn't really matter, since my streak is at zero.

Saturday 3/7

I'm not terribly enamored with this card from a gambling perspective. However, if you are interested in bubble teams and seeding, this entire weekend is going to be great.

Earlies (12p-159p)
None

Middays (2p-359p)
2p Texas A&M +1.5 +110 2x
330p Virginia +1.5 +103 3x
Passes: Iowa, Wyo

The consensus numbers aren't really there on aTm, but my gut is telling me this is the right play, with Mizzou coming off the big OU win and likely to move into the Top 10.

Appetizers (4p-559p)
4p Auburn -2 -104 3x

I guess I didn't want to play Arizona State that badly. Since I can't read digital clocks, I missed the tip at 2p (not 6p as I had posted earlier).

Dessert (6p-759p)
7p Richmond +6 -103 2x

Nightcaps (8p-12a)
9p West Virginia -2.5 +107 3x

That'll be it for me tonight. Good luck.


I've decided to keep track of my Streak For Cash, because it's fun and it's my blog. When else am I going to "gamble" on EPL soccer?

Streak For Cash
1215p Manchester United vs. Fullham (FA Cup)
4p Auburn vs. LSU (NCAAB)
9p West Virginia vs. Louisville (NCAAB)
10a Sat Atalanta/AC Milan U2.5 Goals (Italian Serie A)
Current Streak: 0

The hell if I know anything about Italian soccer, but U2.5 is -108 and I'm at 0, so I might as well throw something out there.

Looking at Time Series, Part 2

In part one, I looked at time series analyses of my 2008-09 college gambling results and it wasn't pretty.

Tonight, I'm going to look at 2007-08, since most of my contrarian thoughts were forged during that period and, conveniently, I have statistics for them.

The graph from the 07-08 NCAAB season is shown below. It has an uptrend (that'd be nice), so I'm probably going to have to look at the first differences.



Now here is an interesting result. At first glance, it almost looks like a random walk again.

Type Coef SE Coef T P
AR 1 0.9881 0.0156 63.18 0.000
Constant 0.2549 0.1641 1.55 0.122
Mean 21.34 13.74

But, remember, I said I have to look at the first differences because of the upward trend. Here is the time series analysis on the first differences.

Type Coef SE Coef T P
AR 1 0.1142 0.0631 1.81 0.071
Constant 0.1444 0.1532 0.94 0.347

The constant term is not statistically significant, which kind of sucks. If it were significant, it would indicate skill. Regardless, the AR1 coefficient is marginally significant. I'm not sure if that really means there was predictive ability in 2007-08, but at least it shows statistically that I was more likely to win the game after a win (and lose after a loss).

The college football season from 2007-08 also had a positive trend (below), so a similar analysis will need to be completed on the first differences.



For the 2007-08 NCAAF data, the trend was so severe, the time series program died before converging, so we'll have to go straight to the first differences.

Type Coef SE Coef T P
AR 1 0.0203 0.0838 0.24 0.809
Constant 0.4808 0.2598 1.85 0.066

This is what I wanted to see all along. The AR1 term for the first differences is very close to zero and the constant term is positive and statistically significant. Basically, that is saying that each bet was totally independent and had an expected outcome of 0.5x. Statistical skill, finally.

For completeness, I suppose I should look at 2008-09 college football from Week 3 forward. Intelligently, I didn't even play the NCAAF in Week 2.



Not much change from the original.

Type Coef SE Coef T P
AR 1 0.0095 0.0856 0.11 0.912
Constant 0.5586 0.2693 2.07 0.040

No real change in time series statistics either. Hooray. One good season in the last six.

Clearly, I think the results show I had some skill in 2007-08. Whether that is attributed to blind luck, a different gambling market, or strategy changes causing a decline in my abilities, I'm not sure. Since it seems that contrarians in general have records that are worse this year overall compared to last, I'm hopeful, but not convinced, that 2008-09 is just a hiccup on the path to success.

Friday 3/6

As suspected, I'm passing the entire garbage college hoops card.

Streak for Cash
10p Anaheim Ducks vs. Dallas Stars

Anaheim is sitting at -153 at Pinny right now. The Quack is mildly public at Wagerline (60.41%), but even if the books were shading from a true line of something like -140, that is still representing value on the Ducks.

Since we're not betting actual amounts against the moneyline, I don't think the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem apply as normal here.

Or, to put it another way, would you take this bet if you were getting +100 on the Ducks?

Of course, I could be approaching this wrong. I might have my math hat on a little too tightly. Let me know.

Leans 3/6

I actually don't have single lean for tonight, even with some smaller conference tourneys in play.

It took me five months to finally sign up for Streak for Cash. It's mildly interesting, so lacking anything else, I'll throw some leans up for it. I'm not sure if this will be a regular feature or not. These are in order:

10p Anaheim Ducks vs. Dallas Stars (ANA is a -160 fave at Pinny)
7p Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat (TOR is +1 but is a full 9 GB of MIA)
718a MAJ (ESP) lower Front 9 at Honda vs. Rose (GBR) (ML's plays this week were centered on MAJ)

Last night, I won with Penn State, so my streak now stands at 1. I'm actually going to do this, because it will give me something to look at today at work.

718a MAJ (ESP) lower Front 9 at Honda vs. Rose (GBR)

Streak for Cash is obviously just for fun, unless you truly think you are going to get 27 in a row. My betting style won't be straight contrarianism. Because ESPN isn't a book, chances are you are going to find value in some plays that you wouldn't find at a book. It'll be more like value betting. We'll see how well I do.

Thursday 3/5

I came really close to playing the late Arch Madness game. Instead, just a couple of passes for tonight.

Passes: Mizz St, X

Had the line not moved from 2.5 this morning to 4 currently, I would have played the Bears. Good luck if you play anything on this garbage card.

The only possible look for tomorrow is St. John's, but I doubt there is much value there after beating GTown on Tuesday.

Leans 3/5

Uh, wow. This card is not good tonight.

7p SoCar -2.5 vs. Tenny
9p X -9.5 vs. Dayton
930p Mizz St +2.5 @ Wich St

These plays are quite the stretch. Even the Arch Madness game is a likely pass. And yes, I wrote that sentence just to include Arch Madness.

Looking at Time Series Analysis of am19psu's Results

Well, I went ahead and downloaded Minitab so I could do some ARIMA modeling of my data. I have to admit, the preliminary results are a little disheartening. One thing to keep in mind is that the strategy is ever-evolving, so the results here may not have come from the same distribution, but I doubt that is playing much of a factor.

As you recall, the figure below shows my results through March 1st for 2008-09 basketball season.



I used disheartening above because when I did the time series analysis I came up with this:

Type Coef SECoef T P
AR 1 0.9712 0.0158 61.46 0.000
Constant 0.0645 0.1481 0.44 0.664
Mean 2.235 5.133

Basically, what that means is that my results are a random walk. The AR1 coefficient is the coefficient of the serial correlation term with p-value 0.000 and the constant is not significant (with p-value 0.664). Note that the coefficient is near 1. If it were exactly 1, it would be a true random walk. This pattern is one that is destined to fail over time. It's even been called gambler's ruin.

This result has many names: the level-crossing phenomenon, recurrence or the gambler's ruin. The reason for the last name is as follows: if you are a gambler with a finite amount of money playing a fair game against a bank with an infinite amount of money, you will surely lose.

And in general, we're not even playing a fair game because of juice.

This graph shows the results from 2008-09 college football.



The time series analysis for this sucks even worse.

Type Coef SE Coef T P
AR 1 0.9382 0.0300 31.26 0.000
Constant -0.8430 0.1800 -4.68 0.000
Mean -13.636 2.912

In this particular example, the AR1 term is a bit farther away from 1, meaning it is likely not a random walk, but the constant term is negative. That means I am a loser when it comes to college football, at least in 2008-09. Not that I had any inclination of that from the sidebar.

The next figure shows my NCAAF results with the first two weeks left out. One of the things that I've considered is that contrarian gambling early in the season is not profitable. ML has told me stories about Squeeky cleaning up in college football early in a season, 2004 or 2005, I believe. However, I have not had any luck whatsoever. This graph doesn't necessarily support that hypothesis, but it is fair to say that I never got out of the hole I dug myself the first two weeks.



These results are much more indicative of what I want to see. With a coefficient of AR1 around 0.84 and positive constant, I am showing NCAAF to be profitable for 2008-09 after Week 2.

Type Coef SE Coef T P
AR 1 0.8451 0.0445 18.99 0.000
Constant 1.0931 0.1816 6.02 0.000
Mean 7.056 1.173

Whew. At least, debatably, I'm not completely retarded. That said, when I look at the first differences, the p-value of AR1 is not statistically significant, so it is still possible that results are a random walk.

I'm not even going to look at the last two NFL seasons, since I readily admit I have no skill in that sport.

I'm not entirely sure what to make of these results, other than I have not been gambling skillfully in 2008-09. More questions and suggestions are always welcome in the comments.

In part two of this post, which will run Friday at 6PM, I'll look into my 2007-08 results.