You guessed it, Frank Stallone

at 10:43 PM

Today was terrible. I really don't understand the enormous variance in college buckets.

It's funny to me how much more WVU is favored over USF in Tampa than either GTown or Marquette was favored.

Let's see if I can convert PST to EST a little bit better tonight.

12p L'ville -8.5 vs. Marq
2p Mizz +4.5 @ KU
2p Rutg +2 vs. Provo
330p Duq -1 vs. URI
10p Ore -2 vs. Ore St
4p Ill -1 vs. Sparty

Note: Again, for whatever reason, they put Ill/Sparty at the end of the card.

That's a bit more chalk than I like. Nothing really stands out as a must play tomorrow.

at 9:31 AM

A couple of things here before I get into the picks:

I edited last night's post. VoTech and the Mormons were the only leans I added this morning. Everything else about the leans is the same. Well, almost. Apparently, I have a difficult time going from PST to EST when inebriated. There were some major time errors on the post. I've fixed them this morning
My fiancee requested that I act like a real, honest-to-goodness boyfriend today. Rather than telling her to go make me a sammich, I relented and have non-degenerate things to do today. Why do you care? I'll only be putting picks up twice today, once in the morning and the other around 6p.

Earlies (12p-559p)
12p Cleveland State +7 -108 2x
2p Virginia +7 -102 2x
330p Virginia Tech +5.5 -111 2x
330p Texas Tech +9 -119 2x
4p Purdue -10 -102 2x
4p Kentucky -4.5 +101 2x
5p Washington State +1 +104 3x
Passes: GTown, Depaul, ND

Nightcaps (6p-12a)
730p San Diego +9.5 -108 2x
830p Seton Hall +10 +102 2x
830p TCU +4 -110 2x
Passes: Okie St, Cal, Vandy

Be careful. The Cougs/Devils game is at the end of the card today, for whatever reason. I almost missed it.

I'm not particularly excited about these late games. I'm just hoping to turn a small profit today.

Good luck tonight.

at 11:57 PM

Going down the line at Pinny. These are first glance looks for tomorrow before I hit the sack. Which also means I am slightly less than sober while looking at them.

12p Gtown +6 @ Nova
12p Depaul -1 vs. Johns
2p ND +11 @ UConn
12p Cleve St +7 @ Butler
2p UVa +7 vs. Wake
330p VT +5.5 vs. Duke
4p Pur -10 vs. tOSU
4p UK -4.5 vs. LSU
5p BYU -6 vs. Utah
6p Ok St -2 vs. Texas
730p USD +9.5 vs. Zags
830p Hall +10 vs. Pitt
830p TCU +4.5 vs. SDSU
9p Cal +2.5 vs. UCLA
9p Vandy -1 vs. So Car
5p Wazzu +1 vs. Rizo St

at 4:30 PM

Yeah, Niagara isn't happening. Be back tomorrow with the Saturday card.

at 5:58 AM

I'm hesitant to even think about putting a Metro Atlantic team here. However, most people remember the Siena Saints winning a first round game last year, and if you've been reading different bracket projections over the last few weeks, there is weak support for Siena as an at large team. Taking those grains of salt, I lean toward

7p Niagara -2.5 vs. Siena

I have no idea whether the Purple Eagle will be anti-public and I put the probability of actually playing the game under 30%, but I just wanted to get it out there.

Other than that, nothing but a bunch of Metro Atlantic teams you've never heard of or Ivy League games that I know nothing about.

at 5:39 PM

Jonny wrote:

I'm hesitant to make this a 5 only because I think Memphis is better than people think.

I forget this sometimes. When I put my leans list together, I am basing it off my perception of the public perception of teams, not necessarily the actual public perception. I think it is highly likely that I hold Memphis in higher esteem than the average square.

7p St. Josephs +3.5 +100 2x
9p UAB +4.5 -111 2x
9p Washington State -3 +106 2x

Depending on your view point, the line move either makes Wazzu completely unplayable or more appealing. I'm obviously of the latter persuasion.

Good luck tonight.

at 5:31 AM

Running a little late today...

7p Joes +4 vs. X
9p UAB +4.5 vs. Mem
9p Mich +2.5 vs. Pur
9p Wazzu -1.5 vs. Rizo St

Hopefully, variance turns back around tonight.

at 4:40 PM

I can't believe the ugliness of this card. It is just straight awful. Who am I going to bet on? Ball State? Towson? Marshall? Marquette against UConn? I am probably writing off Depaul and Georgia too quickly, but neither line really jumped at me last night or this morning, so I can pass them without losing sleep.

7p Rhode Island -6 -104 3x
1030p Colorado +5 +104 2x

Wagerline data isn't really supportive of playing the Rams, but you can't tell me that this line was set with anything in mind other than getting Dayton action, with the Flyers at 23-4 and having beaten Xavier two weeks ago, Billiken loss notwithstanding. It's not like the public knows that 20-8 URI is 25 spots higher in the Pomeroy rankings.

Good luck tonight with whatever garbage you play.

at 5:22 AM

If you want a really fun way to lose money on golf, check out ML's and TheSaw's picks for the Match Play Championship. Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Yesterday, I had greater than 50% of the card on my leans list. This morning, I think I have less than 5%.

7p URI -6 vs. Dayton
9p UMd +5.5 vs. Duke
1030p Colo +5.5 vs. Ok St

The Rams are a likely 3x play at that number.

Finally, I'd like to thank Missouri State University for getting outscored by 17 in the second half last night.

From ShamNE at RMMB last night:

Fouling with 4 seconds left down 5, really?

I'm glad I went to bed early last night. Missouri State Bears, your excellence in suck knows no bounds.

at 5:00 PM

Well, this sucks. I was really hoping to pass everything but Mizz St tonight. When I got home I started looking at consensus numbers and Iowa St, the Johnnies, and Provo were all ridiculously anti-public, as well. I guess I'll learn my lesson when I go 1-3.

7p Providence +8.5 +105 2x
730p St. John's +4.5 -110 2x
8p Missouri State +6 +107 3x
9p Iowa State +2.5 -107 2x
Pass: SDSU

The Bears were a 3x play based on the amount I vomited in my mouth as I made the wager. Good luck tonight.

at 5:10 AM

This is an odd set of leans. I've got over 50% of the card on my list, but none of them are all that strong and I could easily pass every one of them.

7p Provo +8 vs. Pitt
730p Johns +5 vs. Cuse
8p Mizz St +6 vs. Crate
8p Ill St -6.5 vs. N Iowa
9p Iowa St +2.5 vs. Baylor
9p BC -2.5 vs. FSU
930p SDSU -1 vs. BYU

Hopefully, things become clearer tonight.

at 5:18 PM

The Kansas line opened at 4 but looks like it will close at 2. I think Kansas is the right side, but I'm not here to handicap games, and the Jayhawks are only slightly anti-public.

7p Georgetown +2 -107 2x
Pass: Kansas

Good luck tonight.

at 5:23 AM

I'm stealing this idea from Vegas Watch. The chart below tracks my progress through the season. I generally don't believe in karma or anything like that, and I don't think I was on tilt after those two games (especially Houston, since I didn't have anything on it), but the down trends are striking.

Leans for tonight:

7p Georgetown +1.5 vs. Louisville
9p Kansas @ Oklahoma

They haven't released a line on the KU/OU game yet, probably because Griffin's status is uncertain. I suspect it will be something like OU -2.

at 9:04 AM

What a garbage card. There is not a single play out there. My biggest pass was Iowa. Good luck if you play anything.

at 8:56 AM

I didn't want to post yesterday so that the ridiculously long theory post stayed at the top. Today's leans, without BracketBusters, are located hyah. You can add Davidson, SMC, ND St, and Crate to that list. In fact...

Early Games (12p-159p)
12p Miami (FL) -7 +106 3x
12p Davidson -5 +110 2x

Middays (2p-359p)
2p Cincinnati +5 +102 2x
2p Georgetown -3.5 -102 2x

Appetizers (4p-559p)
4p UTEP +9 +106 2x
Passes: Ore St, SMC

Dessert (6p-759p)
6p Texas Tech +1 +102 2x
6p Iowa State +3.5 -101 2x

Nightcaps (8p-12a)
8p Virginia Tech -3 +108 2x
8p Saint Louis +1 +106 2x
8p North Dakota State -2 +102 3x
9p Texas -1 +104 3x
Passes: Oregon, Auburn

I am trying to show some fiscal responsibility tonight. I really want to make Texas greater than a 3x play, but proper money management dictates I don't. If there were more green numbers than red over there to the right, I'd probably up it.

Good luck tonight.

at 6:19 PM

As tonight's Duke/St. John's game shows, the books do occasionally set bad lines. I've been thinking about this topic framed in terms of line movement. What causes the line move and, more importantly, how does it affect the expected value of both sides?

As I wrote yesterday, I've yet to be convinced that value does not exist on sides with reverse line movement. That seems like an odd null hypothesis at first glance. As I've mentioned previously, my H0 is mainly anecdotal with some small sample empirical evidence thrown in. Most other gamblers I think take the opposite null hypothesis, which makes sense without taking the book's logic into account. If you are betting on a dog, would you rather have +7 or +6.5, knowing that your EV falls by a certain amount by taking the 6.5?

Let's take yesterday's WVU-Notre Dame line as an example. The line opened Tuesday night at 8.5 and closed at 9.5. Without thinking too much about it, you obviously would have rather had WVU -8.5. The more important question, particularly if you are stuck at work all day while the line moves, is whether there is still value at 9.5, not whether you lost some EV in the move (which you obviously did). Using the half point calculator, a true line of -8.5 +100 works out to -9.5 +118.2. From that, you can infer that you are losing 4.18% in probability by taking the line at 9.5. That calculation also implies that you needed to have a >55% chance of that line hitting at 8.5.

So, is there a >55% chance of WVU covering at 8.5? I acknowldege that contrarians are working within a tight margin, but I think, because of the line movement, the margin is a bit looser in this case. The "public" was backing Notre Dame yesterday at a 63.13% clip (from close at Wagerline). Why would the books move the line, exposing themselves to 4.18% chance of a middle? I think the answer has to be they realized an error in the line and WVU was overvalued at 8.5. That is, there was a significantly greater than 50% chance that WVU covers 8.5, and sharps knew it and hammered the line, facilitating the move to 9.5. Even if big money was coming in, if the books were attracting equal action from sharps (thereby validating their line), they never would have moved it, no matter what the "public" was on.

Here is some math to back me up (all at -110 juice for the book). I'm going to go through the first example spelling things out, from there you should pick it up. As you look through the numbers, ask yourself if you were the bookmaker, would you move the line to change your EV or variance?

Example 1
Probabilities held constant at 60% chance WVU covers at -8.5 and a 40% chance that Notre Dame covers at +8.5

80% of the money is coming in on WVU
EV = .6 (-800+220) + .4 (880-200)
= .6 (-580) + .4 (680)
= -76

70% of the money is coming in on WVU
EV = .6 (-370) + .4 (470) = -34

60% of the money is coming in on WVU
EV = .6 (-160) + .4 (260) = +8

I could solve an equation for percentage of money that needs to be wagered on WVU for the books to break even, but I'm lazy and it's fairly obvious that the number is slightly above 60%.

Example 2
WVU is attracting a constant 70% of the money and the probabilities of a WVU cover vary

WVU covers 70% of the time
EV = .7 (-370) + .3 (470) = -118

WVU covers 65% of the time
EV = .65 (-370) + .35 (470) = -76

WVU covers 60% of the time
EV = .6 (-370) + .4 (470) = -34

WVU covers 55% of the time
EV = .55 (-370) + .45 (470) = +8

Clearly, if the books are taking a ton of money on WVU, they are at risk of taking loss. WVU needs to cover a little under 60% of the time for the books to take wash here.

Example 3
WVU is attracting a constant 60% of the money and the probabilities of a WVU cover vary

WVU covers 70% of the time
EV = .7 (-160) + .3 (260) = -34

WVU covers 65% of the time
EV = .65 (-160) + .35 (260) = -13

WVU covers 60% of the time
EV = .6 (-160) + .4 (260) = +8

WVU covers 55% of the time
EV = .55 (-160) + .45 (260) = +29

I have no idea how much risk the books tolerate. But I think it is pretty clear looking through these examples that action doesn't have to be all that one sided if the probabilities aren't even. So, why would a book move a line by a point if they weren't uncomfortable with the risk? And inherently, will there still be value in the new line? I'll leave the math to you, but it obviously depends on how one-sided the action was. Remember, for there to be value (without considering juice), the probability for WVU to cover at 8.5 has to be greater than 54.18%. Overall, I think when the line moves more than a point, it is a signal that value remains on the contrarian side.

Finally, how bad did the books screw up with their Duke/SJU line given this analysis? The books opened themselves up to a huge middle opportunity. There must have been a ton of action on Duke and they realized the Duke was probably going to cover.

at 5:47 PM

I don't recall a line moving as much as St. John's did today. It opened at 11 last night and by the time I got home from work, it was up to 14. I have absolutely no idea what that means in terms of value, so I'm just going to make it a big ol' pass.

7p Charlotte +6.5 -105 3x
9p Oregon +6 -105 2x
Passes: Johns, Indiana, Ore St

Oregon State was the last cut from the list. The SIA numbers just didn't make a lot of sense to me. I'd rather pass a game like that.

Good luck with your plays tonight.

at 5:27 AM

I'm almost embarrassed by the lucky streak I've been on recently. It's going to come crashing down sooner or later. Probably tonight.

Leans
7p Mich -3.5 vs. Minny
7p Char +7.5 vs. X
7p Johns +11.5 vs. Duke
9p Indiana +9.5 vs. Wisky
9p Ore +6.5 vs. Cal
10p Ore St +4 vs. Stan

That's probably too many for this card. Charlotte is the only real must play.

at 5:59 PM

I don't see a reason not to play all of the earlier games on my leans list this morning.

Early Games (7p-859p)
7p South Florida +5.5 +104 2x
7p West Virginia -9.5 +102 2x
8p Wisc-Milwaukee +5.5 +101 2x
8p Arkansas +4 -101 2x
8p Virginia -1 +112 2x

Late Games (9p-12a)
9p Idaho +6 +102 2x
Passes: NW, TTech

Thoughts:
-USF was the closest to getting cut. The public knows that G'Town isn't very good, but I still think most people looked at that line and went "who the hell is USF?"

-Yes, I read ML's piece today on getting 9 vs. 9.5 with the 'Eers. I have two points on that. One, while I agree that in general we are working within small margins, I am still not convinced that remains the case when there is large line movement, both anecdotally from the last few years of wagering and the empirical, quantitative evidence I found during NCAAF season. Two, -9.5 +102 is actually a better price than the -9 -110 he got.

-If the UW-Mil/Butler game weren't a Horizon League game, it would have been a three. I'm still trying to figure out exactly what the public thinks about these small conference, ranked teams and if the books care enough to offset the line.

-NW and TTech ended up not being particularly anti-public. Easy passes.

Good luck tonight.

at 5:18 AM

This ought to be where my little five day run comes to an end.

Leans
7p USF +6 vs. G'town
7p WVU -8.5 vs. ND
8p UW-Mil +5 vs. Butler
8p Arky +8.5 vs. LSU
8p UVa -1.5 vs. VT
9p NW +1 vs. tOSU
9p Idaho +6.5 @ Boise
930p TTech +1 vs. Okie St

There are a few other ideas floating out there like Temple -25 or Georgia +3, but I can't see fading the 319th team in the country or playing a team coming off a highly publicized upset of Florida. UNC -20 might be interesting, too.

at 6:15 PM

I'm watching CNBC in awe right now as Cramer et al. discuss the destruction of the capitalist financial system. I'm glad I have my money tied up in an offshore sportsbook. And I'm really only being half sarcastic.

7p Purdue -2.5 -107 2x
9p Vanderbilt +1.5 -102 2x

I'm not really excited about either of these plays. It feels like every contrarian is reluctantly putting them in.

at 5:17 AM

Another lame card tonight:

7p Purdue -2.5 vs. Sparty
9p Vandy +1 vs. UK

These are both borderline plays right now. We'll see how I feel tonight.

at 5:11 PM

The record is updated to the right. I can't believe I started 5-11 for the week and ended up 17-13-1. That has to be a record variance for a single week for me.

Pass: aTm

Texas hasn't been all that impressive recently and I think their star has probably lost some its luster in the eyes of the public. Good luck if you play anything tonight.

at 5:20 AM

Just one possibly for tonight:

9p Texas A&M +2 vs. Texas

The UConn/Pitt game is set at a sharp 3. I'm looking forward to watching it.

I'll update the record when I get home tonight.

at 12:32 PM

1p Virginia +8.5 -112 2x
745p Miami(FL) +8 -108 2x

Good luck tonight.

at 11:52 AM

Here is a prime example of a game that probably would have been an automatic play last weekend. Baylor is attracting 71.83% of the action at Wagerline as a 5.5 point favorite against aTm. With my current line of thinking, the game never interested me. Is that 5.5 point line really set as a "trap line?" Baylor is 15-9 (3-7) and aTm is 17-7 (3-6). Are the teams really that different? Is the public perception truly that one sided? I don't think so. That's why the game didn't even register as a pass.

Earlies (12p-159p)
12p Georgetown +4.5 -120 2x
1p Arizona +4.5 +100 2x
Passes: Hall, Arky

Middays (2p-359p)
3p Alabama +2 -103 2x
330p Georgia +10 +104 2x
330p Kansas State +1 -111 2x

Appetizers (4p-559p)
4p Pittsburgh -15.5 -104 2x
4p Iowa +5.5 +108 2x
5p Southern Miss +12.5 -102 2x
Pass: Auburn

Dessert (6p-759p)
Passes: YSU, Oregon St

Nightcaps (8p-12a)
Passes: Wisky, SDSU

I can't find anything worthwhile tonight. There is no shame in passing a crappy card. Good luck if you play anything.

at 6:04 PM

I was really hoping that I would come up with something funny or interesting to write about between now and when I actually posted this play:

9p West Virginia -4.5 -103 3x
Pass: UIC

The only mildly amusing thing was that I read this morning's leans post and saw what poor vocabulary and sentence structure I have before 6a (well, at least worse than normal). Writing that crappy probably would make me a god at Covers.

at 6:04 AM

Wahhhhhhhh! I had a bad day. I'm going to quit for a couple of days. Wahhhhhhh!

- me, yesterday morning.

That's not how I perceived myself yesterday, but certainly that opinion could be out there. Even moreso now that sigma-squared kicked in the other direction yesterday.

The only look for tonight is 9p WVU -4 vs. Nova. Nova is coming off destroying Cuse and Marquette in their last few games, while Bob Huggins' sphincter is still enlarged from the Backyard Brawl. Plus, it's a day that ends in "y," so of course I'll be backing the 'Eers.

at 6:49 PM

Here is something I wrote last week:

Like other gambling strategies, it will take commitment and intelligence to make it work properly, and not everyone will be able to get it, but those that do will make sports wagering an investment strategy or a job, not unlike poker. In my opinion, it's only a matter of time.

Here is something I wrote three months ago:

What makes me place a bet on one five-point dog receiving 38% of the action at Wagerline versus another? Subjectivity. One of those teams might be Ole Miss the other might be Fresno State. I feel like Ole Miss is an underrated football squad, so there is value in taking their side. The opposite is true of Fresno.

I've taken the subjectivity out of my gambling style. That whole post last week really was blowing sunshine up my ass. Think about it. There a lot of smart people out there who like sports. If it was as easy as looking at Wagerline and Pomeroy numbers, someone would have wrote a regression equation a while ago and made a killing.

Originally, when Moneyline started writing his posts about contrarian strategy, I thought they were a reaction to a crappy season and I had a lot of questions about why he would change a winning strategy. Then I looked to the right of my blog, and to the right of his blog, and the results in everyone's signatures at RMMB and realized, maybe this isn't a winning strategy. Not contrarianism, mind you, but my application of it.

In another post last week, I was starting to question myself:

What was I doing differently last year when my big plays were hitting at such an incredible clip? Is this really all variance?

Obviously, some of it is variance. Even contrarianism applied correctly has had a miserable year this year. But some of it is not letting my own ideas affect my judgment. Inherently, I know the books didn't set up Louisville -2.5 tonight to attract equal action. I don't need Wagerline or SIA to tell me that. Last year, I was doing a lot more of this kind of thinking than I was writing a bunch of numbers down on a sheet.

What does this mean for me? It probably means playing a lot less games. I've been playing a lot of games simply because their stats at Carib, SB, SportsInsights, etc. have looked good. No more. I'll still look at Wagerline and SIA to double check myself, but the first thing a game will have to pass is the sniff test.

Will this mean I miss out on some (a lot?) of contrarian plays, especially in hoops and baseball? Yup. I am willing to admit straight up that most of the time I don't know whether the books are setting a trap in the CAA or Sun Belt. A lot of those games will be falling off my card. Note that I passed YSU and Idaho tonight. They looked funny to me when I looked at the lines, especially Idaho +6 vs. USU, but do I really know the public's reaction to those lines? Not really.

The whole idea is to turn those red numbers green. Time will tell if this the right way or not.

at 5:47 PM

Frustration plus early morning hours equals posts like the one below. Instead of quitting for a while, last night's debacle inspired more thoughts on contrarianism. Which, of course means I'll be putting up another philosophical post tonight. For now, here are the plays and passes:

7p Notre Dame +3.5 +102 2x
9p Northwestern +2 -107 3x
9p Arizona State +1 +103 2x
11p St. Mary's +4.5 +105 2x
Passes: YSU, Idaho

Hopefully, this becomes a bit more clear later on tonight. Good luck.

at 5:20 AM

It's been a while since I had a week like this. I'm going to step back for a couple of days and re-group. Even though variance says it should happen every once in a while, it's kind of hard to shake off ~~4-11 -20.5x~~ 5-10 -16.3x, especially given the year that I've had overall. I'll still post some passes this weekend, but I won't be playing anything. I'm sure this will be the start of the next great contrarian run.

at 5:51 PM

This has been a horrible week so far. I'm sure betting on teams like NC State and St. John's will improve that.

Earlies (630p-759p)
7p NC State +5.5 -106 3x
7p Dayton +2.5 +102 2x
7p Toledo +4 +103 2x
730p St. John's +8.5 +101 2x
Passes: Purdue, W Carolina, Ind St, Fordham

Nightcaps (8p-12a)
8p SMU +7 -102 2x
9p Charlotte +3 +104 3x
9p Baylor +3.5 +103 3x
9p Duke +1.5 +112 3x
10p Air Force +12 +114 2x
Passes: Miss St, Rice

Apparently, I am the only one who saw a lot of contrarian sides tonight. I'm sure I'm just flawed somewhere in my thinking. Good luck tonight.

at 5:40 AM

Running short on time on a big Wednesday card. Who could have guessed? I have a feeling there will be greater than three 3x plays tonight. I'll be going through these shorthand.

Stronger Leans
9p Charlotte +3.5
730p Johns +8.5
830p Wisky -11
7p Uconn -11
9p Baylor +3.5
7p Dayton +3.5
7p Ind St +2.5
9p Duke +1.5
8p Meth +8
7p NCSU +5.5
8p Rice +5
7p Toledo +4
10p AFA +12

Weaker Leans
7p Ga St +3
730p Colo +5.5
8p Tulsa
10p SDSU +5
8p SoIll +5.5
9p K-St -11.5
630p Purdue -11
7p Fordham +10

Ugh, that's a lot of games. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out tonight.

at 5:30 PM

I usually leave my apartment at 6a for work. I got up at 5:50a this morning. It was a good start to the day. I'm sure it will only continue with these losers.

7p Michigan +4 -101 2x
7p Virginia +10 -102 3x
7p Central Michigan +7.5 +102 2x
8p Missouri State +6 +103 2x
9p Depaul +1 -102 2x - Solid line there
Passes: USF, Nova, Texas, Loy-Chi, Kentucky

I'm sure my passes will end up with a better record than the actual plays. Good luck.

at 7:34 PM

For those of you not at RMMB, here is a link to a site that gathers objective predictions for the day. I have no idea if it is useful or not. If you muck around, you will clearly see that straight betting one system or another is not profitable, but I'll be interested to watch the measures and see how they fare for contrarian sides.

The site will be permanently linked along the side bar.

at 5:21 PM

Line movement scared me off the Bulldogs.

7p West Virginia +8.5 -106 2x
9p Missouri -4 -107 3x
Pass: Fresno State

Good luck tonight.

at 5:55 AM

If you were a true degenerate, you could find a couple of Metro Atlantic and SoCon games to add to this card. Leans, in order:

10p Fresno -1 vs. Boise
9p Mizz -4 vs. Kansas
7p WVU +7.5 @ Pitt

Now that we are about halfway through conference play, these BP articles give an indication how well a team is playing inside its own league. I use it to idiot check the Pomeroy numbers.

at 6:25 PM

Wow, I played a lot of games this week. Overall, I had a good week, but Thursday and Saturday nights just killed any hope for profits. At least my 3x plays hit better than the 2x-ers.

at 10:41 AM

I should have quit yesterday at dinner time.

1p Charlotte +2.5 +105 3x
130p St. John's +10.5 -104 2x - Completely unnecessary
4p Wake Forest -10.5 +103 2x
Passes: Rutgers, W Michigan

Good luck today.

at 9:54 AM

The early card sucks today. In a flip from the last couple of weeks, though, the late card should be entertaining.

Earlies (12p-159p)
1p Auburn +3 +104 3x
Pass: Towson

Middays (2p-359p)
330p Oregon +4 -101 2x
Passes: Nebraska, Depaul

Appetizers (4p-559p)
4p Kansas State +3 -106 3x
4p West Virginia -11 -111 2x
Pass: E Michigan

Dessert (6p-759p)
6p Southern Mississippi +2 -108 2x
7p East Carolina +2 +103 2x
7p Wright State +2 -104 2x
Passes: Duquesne, Old Dominion

Nightcaps (8p-12a)
8p UL-Lafayette +5 +109 2x
9p Colorado State -2 -111 2x
9p San Francisco +10 +103 3x
10p San Jose State +5 -101 2x
1030p Washington State +6.5 -113 2x
11p Idaho +2 +110 2x
Passes: UTEP, Minny, Texas Tech, Loyola-Mary

This last set has disaster written all over it. I'm not at all excited about them.

at 6:39 PM

Record on 3x plays (not including tonight) since Week 4: 14-12-2 (53.57%)
Record on 2x plays since Week 4: 43-38-1 (53.05%)

Both profitable, barely. Hardly any difference between them. What was I doing differently last year when my big plays were hitting at such an incredible clip? Is this really all variance?

at 6:08 PM

Headed out the door...

7p South Florida +9 -107 3x

Good luck tonight.

at 9:34 PM

From the post I linked earlier (question from The Blue Horseshoe):

2. am19psu .. why do you think there isnt any decent lit. on sports gaming while I alone have 30+ poker theory books

The obvious answer is it's a lot easier to beat a random donkey at poker than it is to beat a professionally run sports book. That said, some attention has been paid to it, both by gamblers and academics. However, I'm not sure a successful strategy has ever been developed. Certainly, nothing has ever been published with as much mainstream success as card counting in blackjack or "power poker" in Hold 'Em and other no limit games.

I've been of the opinion that VegasWatch and MoneyLine, and to a lesser extent myself, are at the forefront of publicly developing a sports wagering strategy that is quantitative and repeatable. Maybe I'm blowing a little bit too much sunshine up our tails, but I honestly believe we are laying the groundwork for some good analytical research. I know I am not going to find the answer because I am 27 and have a real job, but there are smart people with more time on their hands that are going to stumble across ML's site and start thinking.

Contrarian strategy isn't a new idea, but the ability to employ the concept is greater than ever. With the internet, there is a lot of information out there prior to games. Whether it is consensus information, quantitative predictions, like Pomeroy or Football Outsiders, line movement statistics or even message boards, everything the contrarian gambler could want is at our fingertips.

In the old days, you really had to know the sport you were wagering on to spot a trap line. Squeeky is an example of this type of gambler. When he was playing every sport, he knew intuitively when the books were trying to attract action to a certain side. And this is still true. I can spot a good deal of the trap lines the books set in college football. But now I have a way to back up my ideas quantitatively. Before the internet, unless you knew a bookie, you couldn't get that kind of knowledge. And even then, you couldn't publish literature telling people to befriend a bookie.

Who knows, maybe we'll all end up going broke before we become truly successful, but I'm guessing that somebody, maybe (probably?) not us, figures it out. It's not going to be easy to learn how to do. Like other gambling strategies, it will take commitment and intelligence to make it work properly, and not everyone will be able to get it, but those that do will make sports wagering an investment strategy or a job, not unlike poker. In my opinion, it's only a matter of time.

Of course, even if we or somebody else figures it out, there will be the question of whether people will be allowed to use it. I tend to think they will, at least at small limits. This is unlike card counting in blackjack, where the events being bet on are less dependent on one another. A good card counter can clean out the house in blackjack. With sports gambling, by taking the anti-public side, contrarians are providing a kind of insurance to the risk and variance the books take on by setting a trap line. If people are betting 10 dimes a game and becoming a consistent winner, it wouldn't shock me to see books turn away their business, but at smaller limits, I wouldn't be surprised if books welcomed the contrarian's action.

This post has been more of a stream of thoughts based off The Blue Horseshoe's question, but it is obviously something I've thought about before. I guess the future will tell whether I am full of crap or forseeing where this is heading.

at 6:10 PM

Did ML specifically have this card in mind when he wrote the post I linked to earlier? Lots of passes from the Sun Belt and Horizon tonight.

7p Temple +8 +112 2x
730p Charlotte +3 +102 2x
8p Arkansas State +4 +102 2x
8p Detroit +11 +102 2x
9p New Mexico State +11 +101 2x
1030p Oregon +8 +101 2x
Passes: FAU, YSU, ULM, UIC, Wisky

Taking the mathematically correct side is sometimes painful. Doubly so when ESPN decided some women's basketball record is more important than the end of the game.

Good luck tonight.

at 5:35 PM

I don't necessarily agree with all of it, and most of you have already read it, but this is worth a read (including the comments).

Picks up shortly.

at 5:58 AM

No time for formatting. I'm running a little behind. The amount of Sun Belt games possibly on my card tonight is staggering.

Stronger Leans: Ark St, FAU, Char, ULM, Det, Ore St
Weaker Leans: Wazzu, SClara, NTex, Johns, NMSU, UIC, Port

Be back tonight.

at 7:44 PM

Every contrarian has their own style of finding the sides to play. I'm going to show you mine, using tonight as an example.

The first place I look is Wagerline. I go there and write down every game where the underdog is getting less than 40% of the action, usually. For nights with big cards, like tonight, I'll usually stop after 37%. I'll also add favorites receiving less than 50%. Next to each of these games, I'll add a 'W' next to the game. I'll also check the line movement throughout the day. For games with reverse line movement, I'll put an 'L' next to the game and for forward, an 'X' is placed.

Next, I visit Carib, Sportsbook, Sports ~~Investments~~ Insights, and SIA to look at their consensus numbers. I follow a similar pattern to Wagerline and place a 'C', a 'B', a check, and an 'A' next to the games that qualify.

Finally, I'll head over to KenPom and see how the line compares to the Pomeroy prediction. Games where the prediction shows the lean beating the spread get a 'K', while an 'H' marks games where the prediction is not in my favor.

Of course, there needs to be a way to differentiate between a side that is receiving 35% of the action and sides that are getting 15%. I do this by circling or squaring the letters or leaving them alone according to the key below. There are different levels for different sites because some have more squares than others. For example, SIA is the squarest book around, so their thresholds are lower than the rest.

Lastly, I integrate all of this information in my head and come up with the unit size that I want to play a particular side. Below, tonight's 2x plays are in yellow and the 3x plays are in orange.

I do all of this in a notebook every night. It may not be the most efficient use of my time, but I feel it allows me to see the most information and make better decisions.

at 6:25 PM

Good Lord, what I have done?

7p Marshall +1 +101 3x
7p West Virginia +1.5 -110 3x
7p William and Mary +8 +108 2x
7p Virginia +1.5 -102 3x
7p Houston +3 -118 2x
7p LaSalle +1 -102 2x
730p Georgia +6.5 +106 2x
730p Miami (FL) +2 +106 3x
730p Cincinnati +2.5 +100 3x
8p Delaware +1 +102 2x
8p Auburn +1.5 -107 2x
9p SMU +16.5 -101 2x
930p Missouri +4.5 +104 2x
1030p Colorado +5 -105 2x

I'll have more stuff upcoming, but I wanted to get my plays in. Good luck tonight.

at 5:37 AM

I really didn't have any time to look at KP numbers, so this is all based off different sites' consensus numbers.

Stronger Leans
730p Mizz +3 @ Texas
7p WVU +2.5 @ Cuse
730p GaSt -1 vs. Jimmy
730p MiaFL +3 vs. Wake
7p UVa +2.5 vs. BC
7p Marsh +3 vs. Tulsa
1030p Colo +5 vs. Neb
7p W+M +8.5 vs. NE
730p TCU +4.5 vs. Utah
730p Cincy +2.5 vs. ND
8p Prov +2.5 vs. Nova

Weaker Leans
8p Aub +2.5 @ Miss
7p Rich +5 @ UMass
9p Meth +17 @ Mem
9p Clem +4.5 vs. Duke
7p ECU +3 vs. SoMiss
730p UGa +7 vs. LSU
7p LaS pk vs. Dayton

Wednesday mornings suck for doing this.

at 6:17 PM

Seth Davis is an idiot. There, I had to get that off my chest. I swear he is attempting to write like the Peter King of college basketball, which isn't a good thing. And yes, Seth, you are the only one still on the bandwagon of the team ranked 48th by KP and 72nd in the RPI.

Earlier today, Jonny sent me a link to RPI Forecast. Not only do they have the current RPI standings, but they predict how the RPI will look at the end of the season using Sagarin's ratings for prediction. I've seen people try to use Sagarin's ratings as a gambling tool before in football, but never hoops. For the relevant games I'm looking at tonight, I'll compare the Sagarin results to the KenPom predictions.

I have no idea what this means currently, but I figure it will be something to look at the rest of the year.

Tonight's card has me perplexed, again. In order of contrarianess, the biggest leans would be SDSU, AFA, Depaul, tOSU. However, the SDSU line movement has been screwy all day. In addition, as shown above, the KP numbers are way off in the AFA and Depaul games. If this was football, and I didn't have KP numbers to lean on, my card would be a pretty simple AFA, Depaul, tOSU, but that obviously didn't work all that well this year, either. I think it's pretty obvious that I have myself completely mind-twisted and should stop thinking so much about this stuff.

7p Ohio State +1.5 +108 2x
8p Air Force +11.5 +104 2x
9p Depaul +11.5 +101 2x
1030p San Diego State +5 +108 2x

But, hey, at least I got positive juice on all of these losers.

Good luck tonight.

at 5:51 AM

I guess I can look on the bright side, since the wager with the worse juice covered last night.

Strong Leans
1030p SDSU +4 @ UNLV

Weak Leans
8p UNC -21.5 vs. UMd
7p tOSU +2 vs. Pur
8p AFA +12 vs. BYU
9p Dep +11.5 vs. Marq
7p G'town -16.5 vs. Rutg
8p UNI +2.5 @ Brad

Those last two are a real stretch to make it onto the leans, but I figured I'll still give them a second look this evening.

at 5:43 PM

As Jonny pointed out in the comments, at least I'm not a Michigan fan. In other news, looking at the latest projections across the tubes, Penn State would be a 9 seed if the season ended today. I don't expect a whole lot more than that, and I would probably pick against them in the first round, but even making the Dance is an accomplishment.

8p Wisc-Green Bay +1.5 -111 2x
9p Baylor -1.5 -103 2x

Good luck tonight.

at 6:04 AM

Not a whole lot of time to inspect these.

8p UW-GB +1.5 vs. Butler
9p Baylor +1 vs. Kansas
7p WCar +19 vs. Dav
7p Ville -2.5 vs. UConn

NFL record is already updated. I'll do college tonight when I get home.

at 10:11 PM

That's how I'm describing this football season. Not only did I have my worst personal season as a gambler (after starting a blog that was supposed to teach my friends how to gamble properly), but I go 0-5 in the Super Bowl, and the team that I hate the most, with the most obnoxious fans, is the World Champion. Oh, and Penn State got their ass handed to them in the Rose Bowl. This has been the absolute worst football year ever.

at 9:51 AM

I guess people are realizing Duke is good again.

2p South Florida +2.5 +103 2x
Pass: Missouri State

Onto the Super Bowl. I hate to say it, but I like the Steelers in this game. All of the hype for Fitzgerald and Warner has actually pushed the non-betting general public to think the Cards are going to win straight up. At most other places, I'm seeing between 55-60% of the action coming in on ~~Chicago~~ ~~St. Louis~~ ~~Phoenix~~ Arizona.

620p Pittsburgh -6.5 -104 3x

It wouldn't be the Super Bowl without props either. Matchbook doesn't have a great prop market, but I think I found some lines with value. When I'm out 8 units at the end of the day, everyone can laugh at me.

James O39.5 Rushing Yards +110 1.82x to win 2x
Each Team Scores >14 - No +142 1.41x to win 2x
Fitzgerald U82.5 Receiving Yards +170 1.18x to win 2x - That price is a bit ridiculous
Warner U235 Passing Yards +174 1.15x to win 2x

For the record, +175 equals a break even probability of 36%. Fitzgerald was less than 82.5 yards 9/16 or 56% of regular season games. If you include playoffs, it was still 9/19 or 47% of games. I'm getting good value there.

Warner on the other hand, not so much. There were only 3/16 regular season games where he was less than 235 and one he had exactly 235, so that works out to a probability of 22%. Not good value. I wish I had thought to do these calculations before I placed the bets.

The other two props don't really have a good way of determining the probability. James was non-existent down the stretch for the Cards, but has been getting the bulk of the carries in the post-season. For the team totals prop, I don't think you can really look at it other than to see how many games the Steelers held their opponent under 14 this year. The Steelers did that half the time. So, there might be value in +142, which equals a break even probability of 42%.

Good luck with whatever you choose to play tonight.

at 12:42 AM

I was expecting the chalk to be a bit more contrarian tomorrow. Knowing something about PSU, I expect to on Sparty tomorrow anyway.

Mizz St +10 @ Crate (or Cr8t, which is terrible)
USF +3 @ Johns
Duke -22.5 vs. UVa
Nova -12 vs. Cincy
Sparty -12.5 vs. PSU

I'm so pissed after reading what happened to Fresblow. Assholes.

I hate being on the same side as Simmons. I'm really hoping I can find more reasons to pass this tomorrow.

Pittsburgh -6.5

Do you have to consider tomorrow's game a home game for the Hypercycloids?

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