Cricket matches can take a long time and I'm not spending the time to research how many ends or whatever today's match is supposed to go to, so just the soccer match for me early. I probably won't be around to post anything over the weekend. This is hopefully my last weekend of running around for a while.
230p SV Reid (win or draw) vs. FC Magna Wiener Neustadt
Current Streak: 2
Spread-to-Moneyline Converter
This is the best link I can find. Does anyone have anything better?
I know about the SBR converter, but it is seriously flawed. I'd rather intelligently extrapolate on my own after 13 than use it.
I know about the SBR converter, but it is seriously flawed. I'd rather intelligently extrapolate on my own after 13 than use it.
The Nugget Vs. Sportsbook.com
,
Labels:
2009 college football
Here's the comparison of the two GOY datasets I have. Games highlighted in yellow are different by three or more points. There doesn't appear any correlation for the teams in yellow. I'll be analyzing these further as I work to get the first team projections up next week.
Streakin 7/30
,
Labels:
streak for cash
Slightly better early card today.
745a S. Verplank (win only) vs. S. Appleby
1235p Baltimore vs. Kansas City
815p Los Angeles vs. St. Louis
Current Streak: 2
How much is half of a stroke worth in golf? Verplank is -160/+144 at Pinny, which I assume is large enough to overcome the tie, but I have no idea if my assumption is true. O's later today.
745a S. Verplank (win only) vs. S. Appleby
1235p Baltimore vs. Kansas City
815p Los Angeles vs. St. Louis
Current Streak: 2
How much is half of a stroke worth in golf? Verplank is -160/+144 at Pinny, which I assume is large enough to overcome the tie, but I have no idea if my assumption is true. O's later today.
Golden Nugget GOYs
,
Labels:
2009 college football
I'll be comparing these to Sportsbook in the near future (assuming there are differences), but this ought to give a good idea where teams stand heading into the season in the Golden Nugget's eyes.
These will also give me a good estimate for determining the assumed lines for the team-by-team analyses I plan on putting together.
My initial leans are highlighted in orange. It's kind of hard to figure out exactly how to get a lean late in the season. For example, I think Texas Tech should be garbage this year, so if they are only getting 9 against Oklahoma late in the year, they would be a lean. But currently, Texas Tech is still remembered as being tit's hair from the Big XII championship game, so 9 doesn't seem so ridiculous. That line probably closes north of two touchdowns. Especially late in the season, take them with a grain of salt.
These will also give me a good estimate for determining the assumed lines for the team-by-team analyses I plan on putting together.
My initial leans are highlighted in orange. It's kind of hard to figure out exactly how to get a lean late in the season. For example, I think Texas Tech should be garbage this year, so if they are only getting 9 against Oklahoma late in the year, they would be a lean. But currently, Texas Tech is still remembered as being tit's hair from the Big XII championship game, so 9 doesn't seem so ridiculous. That line probably closes north of two touchdowns. Especially late in the season, take them with a grain of salt.
Streakin 7/29
,
Labels:
streak for cash
The early card blows, but I'm at zero so I suppose I have to play the garbage.
1225p Manchester United (win only) vs. Boca Juniors
345p Zach Duke more innings than Matt Cain
8p Chicago vs. Los Angeles
Current Streak: 1
Duke actually has a slightly higher expected value than Cain (139.1 IP for Duke vs. 131.0 for Cain both in 20 games). No doubt Cain will throw a complete game later when I pick Duke.
1225p Manchester United (win only) vs. Boca Juniors
345p Zach Duke more innings than Matt Cain
8p Chicago vs. Los Angeles
Current Streak: 1
Duke actually has a slightly higher expected value than Cain (139.1 IP for Duke vs. 131.0 for Cain both in 20 games). No doubt Cain will throw a complete game later when I pick Duke.
2009 CFB Average Odds From Vegas
,
Labels:
2009 college football,
futures
The average odds from Las Vegas show Florida with a 36.3% chance of winning the national championship this year. That seems pretty high to me, but given what they lost from last year, I suppose it could be reasonable.
I'm surprised that OU is the consensus number two team out there. Even with Bradford et al. coming back for another year of school, they have a much harder non-conference road than Texas. While Texas gets UTEP, UCF, UL-Monroe, and at Wyoming, the Sooners play BYU at the House That Jerry Built and Miami at Joe Robbie. For two teams that are otherwise similar (though I would put Texas slightly above OU anyway), it's hard to imagine that OU should be higher than the Horns.
The ACC Coastal Division race should be a dogfight according to Vegas, with Virginia Tech slightly ahead of UNC, Tech and Miami. Obviously, you know who I think is going to come out on top. Throw in Free Shoes and Clemson and the ACC has six teams in the Top 21. In taking GT, I am playing the same game The Saw does with golf plays. VT, Miami*, FSU, and to a lesser extent Clemson all have name value, whereas GT and UNC are up and comers in the ACC. The market is likely overvaluing the first four and undervaluing the latter two.
The only other team worth mentioning is Ole Miss. They are ranked tenth in average odds rankings. I strongly believe they are going to be overrated at the beginning of the season. Judging by their position on the sheets I brought home with me, this is not an opinion of Vegas, but a market reaction. Ole Miss was often 15th to 20th down the list, meaning their lines have move up relative to the rest of the teams. I guess it's only a matter of time before I lose money fading them.
At the moment, I am leaning towards shutting down baseball betting. I clearly derive no pleasure from it and it's not like I am turning a profit, either. In the meantime until football, I plan on approaching team by team analyses based on schedules and anticipated spreads, similar to what Moneyline did last year. I've got some Excel programming to do for Bernoulli trials in order to get expected win distriubtions**, but I'm hoping to compare the lines I come up with to the information Jonny posted last week. I'm not expecting my analysis to be terribly accurate, in fact I'm hoping to get some constructive criticism as I post the lines, but hopefully, it will stimulate some good CFB discussion before the season gets started.
*I realize Miami is up and coming at the moment, but they still have name value to the average square.
** Since I need the entire population of W-L probabilities, I need to find the probability of a team losing to the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th (and the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th, etc.) teams on their schedule exactly, then summing over all to get the probability of six losses. 12-choose-6 is 924 and 12-choose-5 (or 7) is 792, so I have a lot of copying and pasting in Excel ahead of me.
Vegas CFB Futures Odds
,
Labels:
2009 college football,
futures
I uploaded the all of the CFB futures data I collected to Google Docs. The families can be found here. I stopped by Wynn and Planet Hollywood, but didn't get printouts of their odds so their data is missing. There was nothing spectacular at either shop. The juice is awful across town except at the Plaza, where the sum of the expected probabilities is 152%.
The CFB Futures Positions
,
Labels:
2009 college football,
futures,
waste of money
I'm glad I did quite a bit of price shopping while I was in Vegas, because I think I got decent value with these picks. We'll see. I'm not entirely settled on my unit size for football, so these are in current units, but I don't think it makes a huge difference for record keeping purposes.
Georgia Tech 75-1 4x to win 300x at the Plaza Hotel and Casino
Michigan State 125-1 2x to win 250x at Four Queens Casino
The rationale for these picks are somewhat square, but in college football, where there are no good metrics, there will be some squareness to any future pick. In my opinion, in college football, schedule analysis plays some role in determining how teams will do, and that was a driver in both these picks.
Georgia Tech is returning 17 starters from a middle of the pack ACC team last year, though everyone except Duke was middle of the pack last year. Their schedule is set up somewhat favorable, getting North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Georgia at home. Their hardest road game will be in Tallahassee on October 10th.
While those are decent reasons for liking Tech, I have to admit that my opinion of them is driven strongly by the Flexbone offense they run. I'm a bit of a Smart Football fanboy and think GT will thrive in Year 2 of Paul Johnson's offense. With teams only seeing the flex once a year, it gives a strategic advantage to the offense (see: 2008 Georgia game).
The big question mark for Tech will be do they have the talent to compete for the MNC? North Carolina continues to amass talent and Virginia Tech always has a strong defense. Even if they get through the ACC unscathed, they would be heavy dogs to Florida, Texas, or USC in the national title game. Still, 75-1 is the best price I've seen on the Jackets since futures opened and that represents value in my mind.
Michigan State loses Brian Hoyer and Javon Ringer, but neither are big time losses. Hoyer was a typical mediocre Big Ten quarterback, while Ringer got a lot of touches but wasn't particularly explosive when he had the rock.
This pick is basically like Jonny's Penn State future on steroids. Ohio State is universally regarded as the Big Dog in the Big Ten, but have a lot of holes to fill on both sides of the ball and Terelle Pryor was not particuarly impressive throwing the ball in his freshman year (not because he was a freshman, either; the guy had the worst throwing motion I've seen from a D-1 QB). Penn State is regarded as their closest competitor, but again, faces big holes at WR, OL, and DB. Sparty has been picked mostly third in the conference this year and Dantonio has been bringing in good recruiting classes somewhat quietly, but like Tech, faces a talent disparity with the UFs and UTs of the world.
Michigan State's schedule sets up somewhat favorably. I'm not on the Notre Dame bandwagon yet, but the two Directional Michigans will be difficult non-conference tests. Once getting to the Big Ten schedule, they miss Ohio State and get Penn State and Iowa at home, so they couldn't have asked for a better set up heading into the season.
Obviously, all of what I have written is stuff that the books have likely considered in setting these lines, but the fact that I saw GT as low at 40-1 at many books and Sparty as low as 45-1 at one leads me to me think that these plays have value going into the season (or, at least, someone who matters banged these teams down).
I've got some cleaning up to do after getting back from Vegas, but I hope to put up a basic analysis of the futures I found in Vegas which maybe will illuminate some value at offshore books looking forward (or not, but it will be fun to play with numbers anyway).
Georgia Tech 75-1 4x to win 300x at the Plaza Hotel and Casino
Michigan State 125-1 2x to win 250x at Four Queens Casino
The rationale for these picks are somewhat square, but in college football, where there are no good metrics, there will be some squareness to any future pick. In my opinion, in college football, schedule analysis plays some role in determining how teams will do, and that was a driver in both these picks.
Georgia Tech is returning 17 starters from a middle of the pack ACC team last year, though everyone except Duke was middle of the pack last year. Their schedule is set up somewhat favorable, getting North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Georgia at home. Their hardest road game will be in Tallahassee on October 10th.
While those are decent reasons for liking Tech, I have to admit that my opinion of them is driven strongly by the Flexbone offense they run. I'm a bit of a Smart Football fanboy and think GT will thrive in Year 2 of Paul Johnson's offense. With teams only seeing the flex once a year, it gives a strategic advantage to the offense (see: 2008 Georgia game).
The big question mark for Tech will be do they have the talent to compete for the MNC? North Carolina continues to amass talent and Virginia Tech always has a strong defense. Even if they get through the ACC unscathed, they would be heavy dogs to Florida, Texas, or USC in the national title game. Still, 75-1 is the best price I've seen on the Jackets since futures opened and that represents value in my mind.
Michigan State loses Brian Hoyer and Javon Ringer, but neither are big time losses. Hoyer was a typical mediocre Big Ten quarterback, while Ringer got a lot of touches but wasn't particularly explosive when he had the rock.
This pick is basically like Jonny's Penn State future on steroids. Ohio State is universally regarded as the Big Dog in the Big Ten, but have a lot of holes to fill on both sides of the ball and Terelle Pryor was not particuarly impressive throwing the ball in his freshman year (not because he was a freshman, either; the guy had the worst throwing motion I've seen from a D-1 QB). Penn State is regarded as their closest competitor, but again, faces big holes at WR, OL, and DB. Sparty has been picked mostly third in the conference this year and Dantonio has been bringing in good recruiting classes somewhat quietly, but like Tech, faces a talent disparity with the UFs and UTs of the world.
Michigan State's schedule sets up somewhat favorably. I'm not on the Notre Dame bandwagon yet, but the two Directional Michigans will be difficult non-conference tests. Once getting to the Big Ten schedule, they miss Ohio State and get Penn State and Iowa at home, so they couldn't have asked for a better set up heading into the season.
Obviously, all of what I have written is stuff that the books have likely considered in setting these lines, but the fact that I saw GT as low at 40-1 at many books and Sparty as low as 45-1 at one leads me to me think that these plays have value going into the season (or, at least, someone who matters banged these teams down).
I've got some cleaning up to do after getting back from Vegas, but I hope to put up a basic analysis of the futures I found in Vegas which maybe will illuminate some value at offshore books looking forward (or not, but it will be fun to play with numbers anyway).
Going Dark Again
,
Labels:
2009 college football,
errata
This has been one of the worst days for me in recent memory. I was supposed to be getting married in Vegas this weekend, but TheFiancee's mom is ill to the point that doctors aren't allowing her to fly (she'll be ok eventually, just not this weekend).
Instead, now it's just me and a good friend heading out to Sin City tomorrow for the weekend, sans TheFiancee. Those of you with your own TheGirlfriend, TheFiancee, or TheWife can imagine how trying today was.
I'll be back on Tuesday with college football futures bets placed at various casinos throughout Vegas.
Instead, now it's just me and a good friend heading out to Sin City tomorrow for the weekend, sans TheFiancee. Those of you with your own TheGirlfriend, TheFiancee, or TheWife can imagine how trying today was.
I'll be back on Tuesday with college football futures bets placed at various casinos throughout Vegas.
Wednesday 7/22 - PM
,
Labels:
mlb week 16,
plays
Thanks a lot, Daniel Priestly.
Plays
705p Cleveland +141 3x
710p Atlanta -105 2x
805p Houston (Oswalt) 2x
810p Kansas City +105 3x
The Royals are the new Nationals.
Changed my mind on the Stros. Backing Oswalt isn't the most contrarian idea I've ever come up with.
Streak for the Cash
805p Boston vs. Texas
Current Streak: 0
Plays
705p Cleveland +141 3x
710p Atlanta -105 2x
810p Kansas City +105 3x
The Royals are the new Nationals.
Changed my mind on the Stros. Backing Oswalt isn't the most contrarian idea I've ever come up with.
Streak for the Cash
805p Boston vs. Texas
Current Streak: 0
Wednesday 7/22 - AM
,
Labels:
mlb week 16,
plays
Only eleven units to go.
Plays
1235p Pittsburgh -105 2x
310p Arizona +171 2x
335p San Diego +137 2x
335p Oakland +100 2x
I have no desire to look at the evening lines right now.
Streak for the Cash
10a Priestly vs. Ovens
145p Lucerne w/d vs. FC Sion
Current Streak: 0
Passing the rest of the afternoon if Priestly wins, Lucerne w/d otherwise.
Plays
1235p Pittsburgh -105 2x
310p Arizona +171 2x
335p San Diego +137 2x
335p Oakland +100 2x
I have no desire to look at the evening lines right now.
Streak for the Cash
10a Priestly vs. Ovens
145p Lucerne w/d vs. FC Sion
Current Streak: 0
Passing the rest of the afternoon if Priestly wins, Lucerne w/d otherwise.
Tuesday 7/21
,
Labels:
mlb week 16,
plays
Ok, so I lied. TheFiancee didn't need me immediately after work, so I get the amusement of backing Sidney Ponson this afternoon.
Plays
5p Kansas City - Game 1 +126 2x
705p Pittsburgh +128 2x
705p CHC/PHL o9 +123 2x
705p Cleveland -108 2x
810p Kansas City - Game 2 +124 3x
840p Arizona +106 3x
1010p CIN/LAD u8.5 +103 3x
Line movement had me back off Game 1 from a 3x to a 2x. It was +114 yesterday. For whatever reason (probably because I'm an idiot), the Homer line doesn't look too far off to my eyes. I like the under a lot better.
Plays
5p Kansas City - Game 1 +126 2x
705p Pittsburgh +128 2x
705p CHC/PHL o9 +123 2x
705p Cleveland -108 2x
810p Kansas City - Game 2 +124 3x
840p Arizona +106 3x
1010p CIN/LAD u8.5 +103 3x
Line movement had me back off Game 1 from a 3x to a 2x. It was +114 yesterday. For whatever reason (probably because I'm an idiot), the Homer line doesn't look too far off to my eyes. I like the under a lot better.
Leans 7/21
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 16
Wow, positive variance:
Leans
510p KC (Ponson) vs. LAA (Santana)
705p WAS (Lannan) -142 vs. NYM (Perez)
705p PIT (Vasquez) +113 vs. MIL (Looper)
705p BAL (Hill) +171 @ NYY (Mitre)
705p CLE (Lee) -116 @ TOR (Cecil)
840p ARZ (Scherzer) +146 @ COL (Cook)
1005p OAK (Braden) -130 vs. MIN (Swarzak)
There is zero chance I'll be home today in time to play the Royals-G1 and MB doesn't have a market open. Maybe I'll get to back Bruce Chen in G2. Rizo is the only sure thing tonight because I have no idea what time I'll be home.
Streak for the Cash
7p Atlanta vs. San Francisco
Current Streak: 3
Once again, nothing appealing in the afternoon.
Leans
510p KC (Ponson) vs. LAA (Santana)
705p WAS (Lannan) -142 vs. NYM (Perez)
705p PIT (Vasquez) +113 vs. MIL (Looper)
705p BAL (Hill) +171 @ NYY (Mitre)
705p CLE (Lee) -116 @ TOR (Cecil)
840p ARZ (Scherzer) +146 @ COL (Cook)
1005p OAK (Braden) -130 vs. MIN (Swarzak)
There is zero chance I'll be home today in time to play the Royals-G1 and MB doesn't have a market open. Maybe I'll get to back Bruce Chen in G2. Rizo is the only sure thing tonight because I have no idea what time I'll be home.
Streak for the Cash
7p Atlanta vs. San Francisco
Current Streak: 3
Once again, nothing appealing in the afternoon.
Monday 7/20
,
Labels:
mlb week 16,
plays
I hope I go 0-5 so I can be done with baseball.
Plays
705p Pittsburgh +100 2x
705p Baltimore +192 3x
710p SF/ATL o8 -118 2x
810p Kansas City +114 3x
1005p Oakland +115 3x
Streak for the Cash
7p Atlanta vs. San Francisco
Current Streak: 3
Plays
705p Pittsburgh +100 2x
705p Baltimore +192 3x
710p SF/ATL o8 -118 2x
810p Kansas City +114 3x
1005p Oakland +115 3x
Streak for the Cash
7p Atlanta vs. San Francisco
Current Streak: 3
Where the Value Lies - Week 16
,
Labels:
mlb week 16,
where the value lies
Washington is amazing. I don't even know what else to say at this point. I can't wait to play Indiana eight times during football season.
Overrated
1. Giants +5.6
2. Astros +5.1
3. Reds +4.6
3. Phillies +4.6
5. Tigers +4.5
Underrated
1. Nationals -13.2
2. Rays -6.7
3. Indians -6.1
4. Diamondbacks -3.9
4. Royals -3.9
--------------------------
Best Luck Last Week
1. White Sox +1.1
2. Cubs +1.0
2. Phillies +1.0
4. Mets +0.8
5. Angels +0.7
5. Yankees +0.7
Worst Luck Last Week
1. Nationals -1.7
2. Rangers -1.1
2. Tigers -1.1
4. Braves -1.0
5. Giants -0.7
--------------------------
Best Luck Last Two Weeks
1. Diamondbacks +1.9
2. White Sox +1.6
3. Phillies +1.5
4. Mets +1.3
5. Angels +1.2
Worst Luck Last Two Weeks
1. Nationals -2.8
2. A's -1.7
2. Padres -1.7
4. Dodgers -1.4
5. Rangers -1.1
I love how the teams I've faded recently populate much of the most lucky lists and the teams I play are found on least lucky (obvious correlation noted).
Overrated
1. Giants +5.6
2. Astros +5.1
3. Reds +4.6
3. Phillies +4.6
5. Tigers +4.5
Underrated
1. Nationals -13.2
2. Rays -6.7
3. Indians -6.1
4. Diamondbacks -3.9
4. Royals -3.9
--------------------------
Best Luck Last Week
1. White Sox +1.1
2. Cubs +1.0
2. Phillies +1.0
4. Mets +0.8
5. Angels +0.7
5. Yankees +0.7
Worst Luck Last Week
1. Nationals -1.7
2. Rangers -1.1
2. Tigers -1.1
4. Braves -1.0
5. Giants -0.7
--------------------------
Best Luck Last Two Weeks
1. Diamondbacks +1.9
2. White Sox +1.6
3. Phillies +1.5
4. Mets +1.3
5. Angels +1.2
Worst Luck Last Two Weeks
1. Nationals -2.8
2. A's -1.7
2. Padres -1.7
4. Dodgers -1.4
5. Rangers -1.1
I love how the teams I've faded recently populate much of the most lucky lists and the teams I play are found on least lucky (obvious correlation noted).
Leans 7/20
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 16
Leans
705p WAS (Martin) -122 vs. NYM (Hernandez)
705p PIT (Ohlendorf) -113 vs. MIL (Burns)
705p BAL (Hernandez) +180 @ NYY (Pettitte)
810p TB (Price) -115 @ CHW (Floyd)
840p ARZ (Davis) +128 @ COL (De La Rosa)
1005p OAK (Gonzalez) +111 vs. MIN (Blackburn)
There is zero edge in the only early streak match. Pass.
705p WAS (Martin) -122 vs. NYM (Hernandez)
705p PIT (Ohlendorf) -113 vs. MIL (Burns)
705p BAL (Hernandez) +180 @ NYY (Pettitte)
810p TB (Price) -115 @ CHW (Floyd)
840p ARZ (Davis) +128 @ COL (De La Rosa)
1005p OAK (Gonzalez) +111 vs. MIN (Blackburn)
There is zero edge in the only early streak match. Pass.
Record Update - 19 July 2009
,
Labels:
in review,
mlb week 15
Sigh. Down to 12x left in the bankroll again. Whatever. Baseball this year is a sunk cost. I'll be reloading for football season, where I expect (hope?) that last year's aberration will not be repeated.
I could barely even find a team I did decent with this week. But hey, as long as I keep betting on the Nats, Tribe, Fathers, and A's, I'll be A-OK!
I could barely even find a team I did decent with this week. But hey, as long as I keep betting on the Nats, Tribe, Fathers, and A's, I'll be A-OK!
Sunday 7/19
,
Labels:
mlb week 15,
plays
Doing some traveling today, so everything needs to be in now.
Plays
105p Cleveland +101 2x
135p Washington +112 2x
135p Pittsburgh +103 2x
205p Baltimore +126 2x
405p San Diego +130 2x
405p Oakland +102 2x
410p Houston +180 2x
Streak for the Cash
4p New York vs. Atlanta
8p Seattle vs. Minnesota
Current Streak: 1
I'll be on the Storm later.
Plays
105p Cleveland +101 2x
135p Washington +112 2x
135p Pittsburgh +103 2x
205p Baltimore +126 2x
405p San Diego +130 2x
405p Oakland +102 2x
410p Houston +180 2x
Streak for the Cash
4p New York vs. Atlanta
8p Seattle vs. Minnesota
Current Streak: 1
I'll be on the Storm later.
Saturday 7/18
,
Labels:
mlb week 15,
plays
I don't feel like thinking about baseball at the moment, so I'll be playing the games in waves today.
Earlies (1p-4p)
105p Toronto +107 2x
Afternooners (4p-7p)
405p Balitmore +138 2x
410p Oakland +114 2x
Nightcaps (7p-12a)
705p Washington +106 2x
715p Arizona +103 2x
715p Cleveland +107 2x
805p Minnesota +108 2x
I concur with Jonny's sentiments.
BONUS CFL ACTION
3p Saskatchewan +3.5 +102 2x
Thank you CN8 for satisfying my boredom this afternoon.
Streak for the Cash
330a New Zealand vs. Australia
10a Watson o73.5 strokes
7p Canada (win or draw) vs. Honduras
Current Streak: 0
Canada is about 62% to cover this, if 5Dimes' lines are to be believed.
Earlies (1p-4p)
105p Toronto +107 2x
Afternooners (4p-7p)
405p Balitmore +138 2x
410p Oakland +114 2x
Nightcaps (7p-12a)
705p Washington +106 2x
715p Arizona +103 2x
715p Cleveland +107 2x
805p Minnesota +108 2x
I concur with Jonny's sentiments.
BONUS CFL ACTION
3p Saskatchewan +3.5 +102 2x
Thank you CN8 for satisfying my boredom this afternoon.
Streak for the Cash
330a New Zealand vs. Australia
10a Watson o73.5 strokes
7p Canada (win or draw) vs. Honduras
Current Streak: 0
Canada is about 62% to cover this, if 5Dimes' lines are to be believed.
Twitter Feed
I can't imagine I am going to update this often before football season, but I added a twitter feed. I already don't like it.
Friday 7/17
,
Labels:
mlb week 15,
plays
I woke up late this morning, but I can't imagine I missed that many games in the leans post this morning. I know that Washington for sure wasn't listed, but there had to be a few more.
Plays
705p Washington +133 2x
705p Pittsburgh +138 2x
705p Cleveland +130 2x
710p Toronto -102 2x
735p NYM/ATL o8.5 -116 2x
805p Minnesota +120 2x
810p Baltimore +155 2x
1005p San Diego +143 2x
1005p COL/SD u7.5 -117 2x
1005p Houston +156 2x
1005p Oakland -103 2x
This is a bit out of hand. I'm pretty sure the total EV is about -7x.
Streak for the Cash
705p Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee
Current Streak: 3
I'm pushing an edge that really isn't there with the Reds, but it's mainly because I want to play the boxing over later.
Plays
705p Washington +133 2x
705p Pittsburgh +138 2x
705p Cleveland +130 2x
710p Toronto -102 2x
735p NYM/ATL o8.5 -116 2x
805p Minnesota +120 2x
810p Baltimore +155 2x
1005p San Diego +143 2x
1005p COL/SD u7.5 -117 2x
1005p Houston +156 2x
1005p Oakland -103 2x
This is a bit out of hand. I'm pretty sure the total EV is about -7x.
Streak for the Cash
705p Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee
Current Streak: 3
I'm pushing an edge that really isn't there with the Reds, but it's mainly because I want to play the boxing over later.
Leans 7/17
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 15
I was close, 2-4 instead of 1-5.
Leans
705p PIT (Maholm) +143 vs. SF (Lincecum)
705p TOR (Romero) -124 vs. BOS (Buchholz)
710p FLA (Nolasco) +112 vs. PHL (Hamels)
805p MIN (Perkins) +112 @ TEX (Padilla)
1005p OAK (Cahill) +109 vs. LAA (Saunders)
And maybe Washington, too, but Pinny doesn't have a line up.
Streak for the Cash
625a Contador vs. Armstrong
230p FC Weiner vs. FC Kartten
Current Streak: 2
Contador is strongly favored over one of my least favorite people in sports. Magna to win later.
Leans
705p PIT (Maholm) +143 vs. SF (Lincecum)
705p TOR (Romero) -124 vs. BOS (Buchholz)
710p FLA (Nolasco) +112 vs. PHL (Hamels)
805p MIN (Perkins) +112 @ TEX (Padilla)
1005p OAK (Cahill) +109 vs. LAA (Saunders)
And maybe Washington, too, but Pinny doesn't have a line up.
Streak for the Cash
625a Contador vs. Armstrong
230p FC Weiner vs. FC Kartten
Current Streak: 2
Contador is strongly favored over one of my least favorite people in sports. Magna to win later.
Thursday 7/16
,
Labels:
mlb week 15,
plays
It's always good to get back in the saddle by playing >60% of the card.
Plays
705p Washington +117 2x
705p Cleveland -184 2x
1005p San Diego +118 2x
1005p COL/SD u7 +114 2x
1005p Oakland -119 2x
1010p Houston +139 2x
One and five sounds like a good way to start off the second half.
Streak for the Cash
1005p Oakland vs. Los Angeles
Current Streak: 0
I have no idea what to play tonight.
Plays
705p Washington +117 2x
705p Cleveland -184 2x
1005p San Diego +118 2x
1005p COL/SD u7 +114 2x
1005p Oakland -119 2x
1010p Houston +139 2x
One and five sounds like a good way to start off the second half.
Streak for the Cash
1005p Oakland vs. Los Angeles
Current Streak: 0
I have no idea what to play tonight.
Leans 7/16
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 15
Onward to the second half grind.
Leans
705p WAS (Lannan) +106 vs. CHC (Harden)
710p FLA (Volstad) -132 vs. PHL (Moyer)
1005p SD (Gaudin) +117 vs. COL (Cook)
1005p OAK (Braden) -128 vs. LAA (Saunders)
1010p HOU (Rodriguez) +133 @ LAD (Wolf)
Streak for the Cash
920a J. Furyk (win or tie) vs. P. Harrington
Current Streak: 1
I'll be on BK Hacken if the soccer game stays the way it's listed in the afternoon. If they change it, I'll be on Hammarby w/d.
Leans
705p WAS (Lannan) +106 vs. CHC (Harden)
710p FLA (Volstad) -132 vs. PHL (Moyer)
1005p SD (Gaudin) +117 vs. COL (Cook)
1005p OAK (Braden) -128 vs. LAA (Saunders)
1010p HOU (Rodriguez) +133 @ LAD (Wolf)
Streak for the Cash
920a J. Furyk (win or tie) vs. P. Harrington
Current Streak: 1
I'll be on BK Hacken if the soccer game stays the way it's listed in the afternoon. If they change it, I'll be on Hammarby w/d.
Record Update - 12 July 2009
,
Labels:
in review,
mlb week 14
This is a few days late, but it didn't really matter because of the All-Star Break. A late week surge pushed me back into the green for the week, which was a nice way to start a four day break.
I'm experimenting with this new color scheme, since orange plays a larger role in the site's new theme. Orange indicates teams that did well last week, blue not so much. I wish a pox on Arizona, Oakland, and Washington's front offices.
I'm experimenting with this new color scheme, since orange plays a larger role in the site's new theme. Orange indicates teams that did well last week, blue not so much. I wish a pox on Arizona, Oakland, and Washington's front offices.
Where the Value Lies - Week 15
,
Labels:
mlb week 15,
where the value lies
My commentary isn't exactly adding a lot of value here, so I'm going to shut up for a little while unless I see something interesting. Fangraphs did something similar this week, too.
Underrated
1. Nationals -11.5
2. Rays -7.3
3. Indians -6.4
4. Blue Jays -3.6
4. Diamondbacks -3.6
4. Royals -3.6
Overrated
1. Giants +6.3
2. Tigers +5.6
3. Astros +5.1
4. Reds +4.9
5. Brewers +3.9
Uh, so I guess a lot of Pirates plays coming in the second half.
Unlucky Last Week
1. Padres -1.7
1. Dodgers -1.7
3. Athletics -1.1
3. Nationals -1.1
5. Mariners -1.0
Lucky Last Week
1. Diamondbacks +2.2
2. Reds +1.4
3. Giants +1.2
3. Red Sox +1.2
Four teams tied at +0.5
---------------------------------
Unlucky Last Two Weeks
1. Padres -2.3
1. Blue Jays -2.3
3. Dodgers -1.6
3. Nationals -1.6
5. Rockies -1.5
Lucky Last Two Weeks
1. Astros +2.2
2. Reds 1.4
3. Diamondbacks +1.3
4. Yankees +1.2
5. Tigers +1.1
Going strictly off this, the non-Pirate NL Central teams are going to be high quality fade options going forward.
Underrated
1. Nationals -11.5
2. Rays -7.3
3. Indians -6.4
4. Blue Jays -3.6
4. Diamondbacks -3.6
4. Royals -3.6
Overrated
1. Giants +6.3
2. Tigers +5.6
3. Astros +5.1
4. Reds +4.9
5. Brewers +3.9
Uh, so I guess a lot of Pirates plays coming in the second half.
Unlucky Last Week
1. Padres -1.7
1. Dodgers -1.7
3. Athletics -1.1
3. Nationals -1.1
5. Mariners -1.0
Lucky Last Week
1. Diamondbacks +2.2
2. Reds +1.4
3. Giants +1.2
3. Red Sox +1.2
Four teams tied at +0.5
---------------------------------
Unlucky Last Two Weeks
1. Padres -2.3
1. Blue Jays -2.3
3. Dodgers -1.6
3. Nationals -1.6
5. Rockies -1.5
Lucky Last Two Weeks
1. Astros +2.2
2. Reds 1.4
3. Diamondbacks +1.3
4. Yankees +1.2
5. Tigers +1.1
Going strictly off this, the non-Pirate NL Central teams are going to be high quality fade options going forward.
SftC 7/15
,
Labels:
streak for cash
This is easily the biggest favorite I've seen in Streak so far: Argentina -710/+576. Wow.
6a Argentina vs. England
That'll be it for the early matchups. The soccer game is a tossup later.
850p Cruzeiro/Estudiantes La Plata u2.5 goals
Current Streak: 0
6a Argentina vs. England
That'll be it for the early matchups. The soccer game is a tossup later.
850p Cruzeiro/Estudiantes La Plata u2.5 goals
Current Streak: 0
Future Win Totals Thinking, Take 3
,
Labels:
2009 college football,
already?
On Walter's suggestion, I played with the binomial distribution. It's not perfect, but it's better. I now get an expectation of 1.53 teams going undefeated and 2008 USC with a 33.85% chance of having exactly one loss and 19.02% chance of going undefeated, both of which make a lot more empirical sense.
This isn't perfect, because I tried to reverse engineer the E(wins) out of the binomial distribution, until I realized I couldn't get half wins back out, so the E(wins) calculation is using the same assumptions as before (e.g. symmetry).
In any case, I'm not really planning on using this for anything other than making fun of retard fanboys who think Georgia is going to win the national title (these numbers give 2008 UGa a 17.1% chance of exactly one loss and a 5.1% chance of going undefeated -- prescient), so it doesn't need to be perfect, but I think Jonny will be able to write some good posts with these.
This isn't perfect, because I tried to reverse engineer the E(wins) out of the binomial distribution, until I realized I couldn't get half wins back out, so the E(wins) calculation is using the same assumptions as before (e.g. symmetry).
In any case, I'm not really planning on using this for anything other than making fun of retard fanboys who think Georgia is going to win the national title (these numbers give 2008 UGa a 17.1% chance of exactly one loss and a 5.1% chance of going undefeated -- prescient), so it doesn't need to be perfect, but I think Jonny will be able to write some good posts with these.
SftC 7/14
,
Labels:
streak for cash
Just one early.
10a Zec Pesciric vs. Llagostera Vives
7p Connecticut vs. Los Angeles
Current Streak: 3
None of the other early options are much better than a coin flip.
10a Zec Pesciric vs. Llagostera Vives
7p Connecticut vs. Los Angeles
Current Streak: 3
None of the other early options are much better than a coin flip.
Future Win Totals Thinking Revisited
,
Labels:
2009 college football,
already?,
props,
really?
I've got time to put the full record update up since games don't start again until Thursday, so I figured I would add to this post from last week.
Since I figured out the expected wins of each team from the totals posted at BetUS, all I needed was a standard deviation to come up with a distribution of the probability of each team having a particular number of wins. I did this by using last year's totals and actual results to come up with a root mean squared error estimate of the standard deviation, which was around 2.16.
I'll let Jonny analyze each particular team, but I came up with an unexpected and almost assuredly erroneous result. The numbers show the expected number of teams that should go undefeated is 4.27.
There a couple of reasons that immediately spring to mind why this number is wrong. First off, my methodology could be wrong. I used a normal distribution to estimate probabilties for discrete data. While not terrible, it's still not good (for math geeks, this is analogous to using the trapezoidal rule for estimating integrals).
Also, it may not be a good idea to use a symmetric, normal distribution for totals that are 10, 11, or 12, since the tails of a normal distribution go to infinity and you are buttressing against the total possible number of wins.
Another reason would be that last year's RMSE is not representative of the true standard deviation of the distribution. The last thing that comes to mind is the books shading the lines high for the expected good teams, expecting to take a lot of over action.
To use a further example, last year Moneyline, when he was still running a blog, estimated USC's chances of going undefeated at 14.8% and their chances of one loss at 32.4%. Using this methodology, 2008 USC had a 31.3% chance of going undefeated and a 17.7% chance of one loss. Obviously, Moneyline's numbers are way closer to reality than these are.
There is quite a bit of room for improvement here, I'm just not sure where.
Since I figured out the expected wins of each team from the totals posted at BetUS, all I needed was a standard deviation to come up with a distribution of the probability of each team having a particular number of wins. I did this by using last year's totals and actual results to come up with a root mean squared error estimate of the standard deviation, which was around 2.16.
I'll let Jonny analyze each particular team, but I came up with an unexpected and almost assuredly erroneous result. The numbers show the expected number of teams that should go undefeated is 4.27.
There a couple of reasons that immediately spring to mind why this number is wrong. First off, my methodology could be wrong. I used a normal distribution to estimate probabilties for discrete data. While not terrible, it's still not good (for math geeks, this is analogous to using the trapezoidal rule for estimating integrals).
Also, it may not be a good idea to use a symmetric, normal distribution for totals that are 10, 11, or 12, since the tails of a normal distribution go to infinity and you are buttressing against the total possible number of wins.
Another reason would be that last year's RMSE is not representative of the true standard deviation of the distribution. The last thing that comes to mind is the books shading the lines high for the expected good teams, expecting to take a lot of over action.
To use a further example, last year Moneyline, when he was still running a blog, estimated USC's chances of going undefeated at 14.8% and their chances of one loss at 32.4%. Using this methodology, 2008 USC had a 31.3% chance of going undefeated and a 17.7% chance of one loss. Obviously, Moneyline's numbers are way closer to reality than these are.
There is quite a bit of room for improvement here, I'm just not sure where.
Derby Night 7/13
,
Labels:
plays,
waste of money
Well, I guess it worked out for me.
Nelson Cruz +1050 2x to win 21x
I also had Gonzalez +900 out there, too, but it never got picked up. I'll be back with the record update later.
Nelson Cruz +1050 2x to win 21x
I also had Gonzalez +900 out there, too, but it never got picked up. I'll be back with the record update later.
Streak for the Cash 7/13
,
Labels:
streak for cash
There is not much else going on right now. I floated some ridiculous numbers for the HR Derby tonight, but I doubt they'll get picked up.
730a Crivoi vs. Istomin
130p Orebro SK (win or draw) vs. Trelleborgs
Current Streak: 2
Orebro SK w/d later this afternoon, as well.
730a Crivoi vs. Istomin
130p Orebro SK (win or draw) vs. Trelleborgs
Current Streak: 2
Orebro SK w/d later this afternoon, as well.
Sunday 7/12
,
Labels:
streak for cash
I was away from the computer until this afternoon, so I passed on all of the baseball games.
For whatever reason, I thought I had the Liberty locked in, but when I checked from the ballpark, I didn't. Whatever, I still won with the two UFC fights.
Streak for the Cash
7p San Antonio vs. Minnesota
Current Streak: 0
For whatever reason, I thought I had the Liberty locked in, but when I checked from the ballpark, I didn't. Whatever, I still won with the two UFC fights.
Streak for the Cash
7p San Antonio vs. Minnesota
Current Streak: 0
Saturday 7/11
,
Labels:
mlb week 14,
plays
Bachelor party all day, so I need to get these in now.
Plays
705p Washington +146 2x
705p Cleveland +119 2x
710p Kansas City +162 2x
810p Arizona -115 2x
810p Atlanta +112 2x
1010p Seattle -101 3x
Streak for the Cash
730p New York vs. Atlanta
1030p Henderson vs. Bisping
12a Lesnar vs. Mir
Current Streak: 8
Assuming I am sober enough to put these in (not likely), I'll be on Henderson and Lesnar for UFC 100, too.
Plays
705p Washington +146 2x
705p Cleveland +119 2x
710p Kansas City +162 2x
810p Arizona -115 2x
810p Atlanta +112 2x
1010p Seattle -101 3x
Streak for the Cash
1030p Henderson vs. Bisping
12a Lesnar vs. Mir
Current Streak: 8
Assuming I am sober enough to put these in (not likely), I'll be on Henderson and Lesnar for UFC 100, too.
Friday 7/10
,
Labels:
mlb week 14,
plays
I'm having a miserable day. These are straight follows.
Plays
705p Cleveland +130 2x
750p TOR/BAL u10 +106 2x
735p Oakland +152 2x
805p Washington +175 2x
Not even looking at Streak.
Plays
705p Cleveland +130 2x
750p TOR/BAL u10 +106 2x
735p Oakland +152 2x
805p Washington +175 2x
Not even looking at Streak.
Leans 7/10
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 14,
plays
I'm not complaining too much because I went 3-1 last night, but solid 8th inning from Arizona last night.
Leans
705p PIT (Duke) +150 @ PHL (Blanton)
705p BAL (Berken) -104 vs. TOR (Cecil)
705p CLE (Lee) +140 @ DET (Jackson)
735p OAK (Mazzaro) +152 @ TB (Niemann)
940p ARZ (Haren) -157 vs. FLA (Nolasco)
1010p SEA (Morrow) +110 vs. TEX (Feldman)
Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 6
There wasn't anything remotely close to playing.
Leans705p PIT (Duke) +150 @ PHL (Blanton)
705p BAL (Berken) -104 vs. TOR (Cecil)
705p CLE (Lee) +140 @ DET (Jackson)
735p OAK (Mazzaro) +152 @ TB (Niemann)
940p ARZ (Haren) -157 vs. FLA (Nolasco)
1010p SEA (Morrow) +110 vs. TEX (Feldman)
Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 6
There wasn't anything remotely close to playing.
Thursday 7/9 - PM
,
Labels:
mlb week 14,
plays
Still looking for feedback hyah, if you have time.
Plays
710p Kansas City +188 2x
840p ATL/COL o9 -116 2x
940p Arizona -108 2x
Who steamed Petit today? Twenty cents is quite the line swing.
Streak for the Cash
710p Kansas City +2.5 vs. Boston
Current Streak: 6
Sure. Loser.
Plays
710p Kansas City +188 2x
840p ATL/COL o9 -116 2x
940p Arizona -108 2x
Who steamed Petit today? Twenty cents is quite the line swing.
Streak for the Cash
710p Kansas City +2.5 vs. Boston
Current Streak: 6
Sure. Loser.
Thursday 7/9 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 14,
plays
I can't wait for the All-Star Break.
Plays
205p Cleveland +118 2x
Leans
710p KC (Hochevar) +180 @ BOS (Penny)
840p ATL (Hanson) +115 @ COL (Cook)
940p ARZ (Petit) +109 vs. FLA (Miller)
Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 5
I'm not fooling around with any of the early stuff. I'm waiting to lose my streak on KC +2.5 tonight.
Plays
205p Cleveland +118 2x
Leans
710p KC (Hochevar) +180 @ BOS (Penny)
840p ATL (Hanson) +115 @ COL (Cook)
940p ARZ (Petit) +109 vs. FLA (Miller)
Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 5
I'm not fooling around with any of the early stuff. I'm waiting to lose my streak on KC +2.5 tonight.
Future Win Totals Thinking
,
Labels:
2009 college football,
contrarianism,
props
Earlier today, Jonny approached me with a question regarding win totals for the upcoming college football season. BetUS has regular season win totals up for most of the major conference teams for 2009. I was asked to compute win expectancies based off the juice. It seems straightforward at first, but I made some assumptions along the way and I want to make sure they are right.
Here is the methodology: first, find the actual juice adjusted probabilties from each line by adjusting each outcome's odds to probabilties then dividing through each outcome's probability by the sum of the probabilities of the two outcomes.
Then, if the total is a whole number, multiply the over juice adjusted probability by the total plus one and the under juice adjusted probability by the total minus one. If the total is a half number, the procedure is the same, except instead of adding/subtracting by one, I added or subtracted by one-half. Two examples follow.
--------------------------------
Example 1.
Team A o10.5 -130/u10.5 +110
p(-130) = 1.3/2.3 = 56.52%
p(+110) = 1 - (1.1/2.1) = 45.73%
.5652 + .4573 = 1.0414
56.52%/1.0414 = 54.27%
45.73%/1.0414 = 45.73%
E(A) = 11*.5427 + 10*.4573 = 10.54 wins
Example 2.
Team B o10 -130/ u10 +110
E(B) 11*.5427 + 9*.4573 = 10.08 wins
---------------------------------
So, the assumptions I want to check are: the juice adjustment to the probabilities and the calculation of the win expectancies by adding one or one-half.
Obviously, one assumption is that the probability distribution is symmetric, which may not be valid for Florida (o/u 11), for example.
I decided on adding one or one-half because of my SftC experience with soccer odds. When calculating the probabilities for three outcomes (Team A, Team B, or Draw), they are proportional to the Team A pk/Team B pk odds. In other words, If Team A is 35% to win, Team B is 35% to win, and there is a 30% chance of a draw, the odds end up at Team A pk 50% and Team B pk 50%. So, by adding one or one-half, I am calculating the odds of the outcomes that can actually happen, since there is no push option.
The reason why I am questioning myself, beyond never really thinking about it before today, is because the cutoff point for moving a line is different if the total is an integer or a half-number. For a whole number, over -200/under +150 equals a quarter of an expected win. Any higher, and you would expect the book to move it.
---------------------------------
Example 3.
Team C o9 -200/u9 +150
p(-200) = 2/3 = 66.67%
p(+150) = 1- 1.5/2.5 = 40%
66.67%/1.0667 = 62.5%
40%/1.0667 = 37.5%
E(C) = 10*.625 + 8*.375 = 9.25
---------------------------------
If you do the same calculation for a half number line, you don't get to the value to move the line.
---------------------------------
Example 4
Team D o9.5 -200/u9.5 +150
E(D) = 10*.625 + 9*.375 = 9.625
---------------------------------
Obviously, the mathematical reason for this is the larger spread on the endpoints (8 and 10 vs. 9 and 10). But is this right? Should the books be more willing to move the total off an integer than a half-number?
I'm finding myself questioning this outcome, because I think win expectancy should be normally distributed, and therefore the same amount odds should persuade the book to move a number, whether the total is a whole number or a half number.
On the other hand, there is also the push factor that has to be thought about. By moving the line off a half-number, the book creates an opportunity for a push, which I assume would be an undesireable outcome. Does the math prove that or did I make a mistake somewhere? I assume the latter.
In any case, assuming the math is right, Jonny should have win expectancies posted on his blog sometime soon.
Here is the methodology: first, find the actual juice adjusted probabilties from each line by adjusting each outcome's odds to probabilties then dividing through each outcome's probability by the sum of the probabilities of the two outcomes.
Then, if the total is a whole number, multiply the over juice adjusted probability by the total plus one and the under juice adjusted probability by the total minus one. If the total is a half number, the procedure is the same, except instead of adding/subtracting by one, I added or subtracted by one-half. Two examples follow.
--------------------------------
Example 1.
Team A o10.5 -130/u10.5 +110
p(-130) = 1.3/2.3 = 56.52%
p(+110) = 1 - (1.1/2.1) = 45.73%
.5652 + .4573 = 1.0414
56.52%/1.0414 = 54.27%
45.73%/1.0414 = 45.73%
E(A) = 11*.5427 + 10*.4573 = 10.54 wins
Example 2.
Team B o10 -130/ u10 +110
E(B) 11*.5427 + 9*.4573 = 10.08 wins
---------------------------------
So, the assumptions I want to check are: the juice adjustment to the probabilities and the calculation of the win expectancies by adding one or one-half.
Obviously, one assumption is that the probability distribution is symmetric, which may not be valid for Florida (o/u 11), for example.
I decided on adding one or one-half because of my SftC experience with soccer odds. When calculating the probabilities for three outcomes (Team A, Team B, or Draw), they are proportional to the Team A pk/Team B pk odds. In other words, If Team A is 35% to win, Team B is 35% to win, and there is a 30% chance of a draw, the odds end up at Team A pk 50% and Team B pk 50%. So, by adding one or one-half, I am calculating the odds of the outcomes that can actually happen, since there is no push option.
The reason why I am questioning myself, beyond never really thinking about it before today, is because the cutoff point for moving a line is different if the total is an integer or a half-number. For a whole number, over -200/under +150 equals a quarter of an expected win. Any higher, and you would expect the book to move it.
---------------------------------
Example 3.
Team C o9 -200/u9 +150
p(-200) = 2/3 = 66.67%
p(+150) = 1- 1.5/2.5 = 40%
66.67%/1.0667 = 62.5%
40%/1.0667 = 37.5%
E(C) = 10*.625 + 8*.375 = 9.25
---------------------------------
If you do the same calculation for a half number line, you don't get to the value to move the line.
---------------------------------
Example 4
Team D o9.5 -200/u9.5 +150
E(D) = 10*.625 + 9*.375 = 9.625
---------------------------------
Obviously, the mathematical reason for this is the larger spread on the endpoints (8 and 10 vs. 9 and 10). But is this right? Should the books be more willing to move the total off an integer than a half-number?
I'm finding myself questioning this outcome, because I think win expectancy should be normally distributed, and therefore the same amount odds should persuade the book to move a number, whether the total is a whole number or a half number.
On the other hand, there is also the push factor that has to be thought about. By moving the line off a half-number, the book creates an opportunity for a push, which I assume would be an undesireable outcome. Does the math prove that or did I make a mistake somewhere? I assume the latter.
In any case, assuming the math is right, Jonny should have win expectancies posted on his blog sometime soon.
Wednesday 7/8 - PM
,
Labels:
mlb week 14,
plays
This was I wanted to see when I got home from work today.
Plays
705p Cincinnati +139 2x
710p Oakland +167 2x
810p Cleveland +139 2x
Looks pretty normal to me.
Streak for the Cash
Passing.
Current Streak: 5
Honduras +1.5 is the best look, but even it is less than 60%.
Plays
705p Cincinnati +139 2x
710p Oakland +167 2x
810p Cleveland +139 2x
Looks pretty normal to me.
Streak for the Cash
Passing.
Current Streak: 5
Honduras +1.5 is the best look, but even it is less than 60%.
Wednesday 7/8 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 14,
plays
Well, what do you know. A big WNBA favorite won.
Plays
310p Washington +159 2x
I was surprised that with so many early games, this is the only one I liked.
Leans
705p CIN (Bailey) +143 @ PHL (Lopez)
710p OAK (Cahill) +160 @ BOS (Wakefield)
810p CLE (Laffey) +127 @ CHW (Contreras)
I think Oakland is the only sure look here.
Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 5
I can't find good lines for any of the afternoon options. Cavendish is obviously the favorite at the Tour, but I can't tell if he >50%, let alone higher than that for my streak. DSB says he found -225 at BetUS.
The Cubs/Braves total isn't listed at the moment, so trying to figure the correct side on the baseball prop is failing.
And Argentinian soccer odds are kind of hard to come by. I think because Rosario Central is pk and +0.5 -131 at Pinnacle, that means RC w/d is right, but unless someone confirms that, I'll pass.
Plays
310p Washington +159 2x
I was surprised that with so many early games, this is the only one I liked.
Leans
705p CIN (Bailey) +143 @ PHL (Lopez)
710p OAK (Cahill) +160 @ BOS (Wakefield)
810p CLE (Laffey) +127 @ CHW (Contreras)
I think Oakland is the only sure look here.
Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 5
I can't find good lines for any of the afternoon options. Cavendish is obviously the favorite at the Tour, but I can't tell if he >50%, let alone higher than that for my streak. DSB says he found -225 at BetUS.
The Cubs/Braves total isn't listed at the moment, so trying to figure the correct side on the baseball prop is failing.
And Argentinian soccer odds are kind of hard to come by. I think because Rosario Central is pk and +0.5 -131 at Pinnacle, that means RC w/d is right, but unless someone confirms that, I'll pass.
Tuesday 7/7
,
Labels:
mlb week 14,
plays
Me, this morning:
JA Happ, 2009: 5-0, 2.96 ERA
Or it could be that. One or the other. Thanks to the returning Jonny for relaying that information to me. As always when it comes to anything baseball related, I'm an idiot.
Plays
705p Cincinnati +129 2x
810p Cleveland +147 3x
840p Washington +130 3x
940p SD/ARZ o9 +102 2x
1010p Baltimore +134 2x
Streak for the Cash
1005p Sacramento vs. Chicago
Current Streak: 5
I don't even want to talk about this.
Is the market really reacting that wildly to the 22-1 beatdown last night?
JA Happ, 2009: 5-0, 2.96 ERA
Or it could be that. One or the other. Thanks to the returning Jonny for relaying that information to me. As always when it comes to anything baseball related, I'm an idiot.
Plays
705p Cincinnati +129 2x
810p Cleveland +147 3x
840p Washington +130 3x
940p SD/ARZ o9 +102 2x
1010p Baltimore +134 2x
Streak for the Cash
1005p Sacramento vs. Chicago
Current Streak: 5
I don't even want to talk about this.
Leans 7/7
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 14
Is the market really reacting that wildly to the 22-1 beatdown last night?
The books don't want any part of Bruce Chen against Verlander. Surprising.
Leans
805p ATL (Vazquez) -104 vs. CHC (Dempster)
810p CLE (Sowers) +150 @ CHW (Buehrle)
840p WAS (Zimmermann) +138 @ COL (Hammel)
1010p BAL (Guthrie) +129 @ SEA (Bedard)
Too many road teams.
Streak for the Cash
830a Astanta vs. Any Other Team
245p St. Patrick's/Cork u2.5 goals
Current Streak: 4
Not sure how shaded that line is (LANCE!!!111!1!!), but if it's fair, it's a solid early pick. The under is definitely the play in the soccer match later.
The books don't want any part of Bruce Chen against Verlander. Surprising.
Leans
805p ATL (Vazquez) -104 vs. CHC (Dempster)
810p CLE (Sowers) +150 @ CHW (Buehrle)
840p WAS (Zimmermann) +138 @ COL (Hammel)
1010p BAL (Guthrie) +129 @ SEA (Bedard)
Too many road teams.
Streak for the Cash
830a Astanta vs. Any Other Team
245p St. Patrick's/Cork u2.5 goals
Current Streak: 4
Not sure how shaded that line is (LANCE!!!111!1!!), but if it's fair, it's a solid early pick. The under is definitely the play in the soccer match later.
Monday 7/6
,
Labels:
mlb week 14,
plays
You win, Wagerline.
Plays
705p Kansas City +127 3x
805p PIT/HOU o9 +100 2x
840p Washington +188 2x
940p SD/ARZ o10 -116 3x
That SD/ARZ total is assuming Matchbook opens a 10.5 market. I'd rather not lay -117 at o10. I need to get better at assessing baseball line movement, because that was at o10 ev this morning.
UPDATE: I changed my mind on the 10 vs. 10.5. I figured it would end up at -102 once MB opened the 10.5 market. o10 -116 is slightly better mathematically.
Streak for the Cash
705p Philadelphia vs. Cincinnati
Current Streak: 2
Plays
705p Kansas City +127 3x
805p PIT/HOU o9 +100 2x
840p Washington +188 2x
940p SD/ARZ o10 -116 3x
That SD/ARZ total is assuming Matchbook opens a 10.5 market. I'd rather not lay -117 at o10. I need to get better at assessing baseball line movement, because that was at o10 ev this morning.
UPDATE: I changed my mind on the 10 vs. 10.5. I figured it would end up at -102 once MB opened the 10.5 market. o10 -116 is slightly better mathematically.
Streak for the Cash
705p Philadelphia vs. Cincinnati
Current Streak: 2
Where the Value Lies - Week 14
,
Labels:
mlb week 14,
where the value lies
The Royals and Tigers are new additions to this week's lists. The Nats, Dbacks, and Tribe are all going to be good options for the forseeable future. I feel like going forward, fading the Tigers and Rangers should be advisable, as well, just based on what I read on the internet.
These numbers are for games through Saturday. July 4th.
Overrated
1. Tigers +5.2
2. Giants +5.1
3. Astros +4.7
4. Brewers +4.0
5. Rangers +3.7
Underrated
1. Nationals -10.4
2. Rays -7.8
3. Indians -6.3
4. Diamondbacks -5.8
5. Royals -3.2
I'm adding a new feature this week, that will be expanded going forward. For now, I am going to add the teams that had the largest delta-D3 over the last week. As I save more data, I'll add bi-weekly and monthly deltas as well.
Best Delta-D3 LW
1. Astros +1.8
2. Marlins +1.6
3. Yankees +1.5
Worst Delta-D3 LW
1. Giants -1.5
2. Blue Jays -1.4
3. Red Sox -1.0
I'm not sure these weekly numbers are going to have much value, because the top teams and bottom teams will have likely played each other and because people's opinions won't change a whole lot over the course of a week. Going forward, I expect the bi-weekly and monthly numbers to have a lot more value from a gambling perspective.
These numbers are for games through Saturday. July 4th.
Overrated
1. Tigers +5.2
2. Giants +5.1
3. Astros +4.7
4. Brewers +4.0
5. Rangers +3.7
Underrated
1. Nationals -10.4
2. Rays -7.8
3. Indians -6.3
4. Diamondbacks -5.8
5. Royals -3.2
I'm adding a new feature this week, that will be expanded going forward. For now, I am going to add the teams that had the largest delta-D3 over the last week. As I save more data, I'll add bi-weekly and monthly deltas as well.
Best Delta-D3 LW
1. Astros +1.8
2. Marlins +1.6
3. Yankees +1.5
Worst Delta-D3 LW
1. Giants -1.5
2. Blue Jays -1.4
3. Red Sox -1.0
I'm not sure these weekly numbers are going to have much value, because the top teams and bottom teams will have likely played each other and because people's opinions won't change a whole lot over the course of a week. Going forward, I expect the bi-weekly and monthly numbers to have a lot more value from a gambling perspective.
Leans 7/6
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 14
My guesses were way off of what Wagerline is showing this morning. The only sure play is Kansas City tonight. Otherwise, I'll need to re-examine things when I get home. Oakland and Washington have large Wagerline splits, but I'm struggling to see how those lines are shaded, even though they are two of my favorite teams to play.
Streak for the Cash
1p Kalmar FF (win or draw) vs. Malmo FF
Current Streak: 1
I guess the sports books enjoy paying out 2.5-to-1 a helluva lot more than 28.5% of the time on WNBA games. What is that, like the third time we've lost on a favorite better than -250?
Streak for the Cash
1p Kalmar FF (win or draw) vs. Malmo FF
Current Streak: 1
I guess the sports books enjoy paying out 2.5-to-1 a helluva lot more than 28.5% of the time on WNBA games. What is that, like the third time we've lost on a favorite better than -250?
People Google Weird Things
Why have four different people hit my blog in the last 24 hours from googling "Stallone's namesake?" I mean, on what planet does someone need to search for that?
Record Update - 5 July 2009
,
Labels:
in review,
mlb week 13
This week didn't feature any particularly rough days, but there wasn't a good day to be had either, except Saturday.
No teams even really stood out as being particularly bad or good. It was a boring, losing week.
No teams even really stood out as being particularly bad or good. It was a boring, losing week.
Sunday 7/5
,
Labels:
mlb week 13,
plays
I wish I was still asleep. My 22 year old self is heckling me for getting up at 9am every weekend.
Plays
135p Washington +132 2x
335p Baltimore +163 2x
405p San Diego +150 2x
Streak for the Cash
930p Los Angeles vs. Phoenix
Current Streak: 6
Tiger to win is -165/+145 at 5Dimes. I think that is fair, but hopefully The Saw or ML will confirm. If it is, I'm passing until the Sparks (that's Los Angeles' WNBA team - I looked it up, too) late.
Plays
135p Washington +132 2x
335p Baltimore +163 2x
405p San Diego +150 2x
Streak for the Cash
930p Los Angeles vs. Phoenix
Current Streak: 6
Tiger to win is -165/+145 at 5Dimes. I think that is fair, but hopefully The Saw or ML will confirm. If it is, I'm passing until the Sparks (that's Los Angeles' WNBA team - I looked it up, too) late.
Saturday 7/4
,
Labels:
mlb week 13,
plays
This card isn't as exciting as I thought it would be.
Plays
105p TOR/NYY o9 +103 2x
410p San Diego +129 2x
810p Arizona +175 2x
905p Baltimore +138 2x
Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 6
There aren't any good options for a streak of W3, let alone W6. Needs more WNBA.
Plays
105p TOR/NYY o9 +103 2x
410p San Diego +129 2x
810p Arizona +175 2x
905p Baltimore +138 2x
Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 6
There aren't any good options for a streak of W3, let alone W6. Needs more WNBA.
Friday 7/3
,
Labels:
mlb week 13,
plays
Looks like another stressful weekend upcoming.
Plays
610p Pittsburgh +153 2x
635p Washington +116 2x
710p Cincinnati +111 2x
710p Seattle +113 2x
810p Arizona +126 2x
1005p San Diego +134 2x
1005p Baltimore +138 2x
Streak for the Cash
8p San Antonio vs. Chicago
Current Streak: 6
I played the Cubs this afternoon, so the streak is pending.
Real Salt Lake is -160 to win. That would be right on the borderline for a play at 10p at W6, if the WNBA game is over. Obviously, when the Cubs or Silver Stars lose, it's a must play.
Plays
610p Pittsburgh +153 2x
635p Washington +116 2x
710p Cincinnati +111 2x
710p Seattle +113 2x
810p Arizona +126 2x
1005p San Diego +134 2x
1005p Baltimore +138 2x
Streak for the Cash
8p San Antonio vs. Chicago
Current Streak: 6
I played the Cubs this afternoon, so the streak is pending.
Real Salt Lake is -160 to win. That would be right on the borderline for a play at 10p at W6, if the WNBA game is over. Obviously, when the Cubs or Silver Stars lose, it's a must play.
Thursday 7/2 - PM
,
Labels:
mlb week 13,
plays
Well, at least SftC went well this afternoon.
Plays
810p Kansas City +131 2x
1010p Baltimore +148 2x
It doesn't appear that the betting public was all that impressed with Happ's last start.
Streak for the Cash
730p New York vs. Detroit
Current Streak: 3
Plays
810p Kansas City +131 2x
1010p Baltimore +148 2x
It doesn't appear that the betting public was all that impressed with Happ's last start.
Streak for the Cash
730p New York vs. Detroit
Current Streak: 3
Thursday 7/2 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 13,
plays
I guess I missed it when he started a game earlier this year for the Royals, but I had no idea Bruce Chen was still in baseball.
Plays
1235p ARZ/CIN o8.5 -102 2x
Pass: Pirates
This seems marginal. It's based solely off consensus numbers. I think the Maholm play might be better, but it's too early in the morning to trust instincts.
Leans
710p ATL (Vazquez) -138 vs. PHL (Happ)
1005p BAL (Guthrie) +149 @ LAA (Lackey)
Streak for the Cash
8a Dementieva/Williams o18.5 games
1120a Venus Williams wins by 2-0
245p FC Zestaponi (win or draw)
Current Streak: 3
Venus is a surprising -160 to win 2-0 in the second tennis match. FC Zestaponi w/d is about 61% later in the afternoon, too, so it seems like a straightforward plan today.
Plays
1235p ARZ/CIN o8.5 -102 2x
Pass: Pirates
This seems marginal. It's based solely off consensus numbers. I think the Maholm play might be better, but it's too early in the morning to trust instincts.
Leans
710p ATL (Vazquez) -138 vs. PHL (Happ)
1005p BAL (Guthrie) +149 @ LAA (Lackey)
Streak for the Cash
8a Dementieva/Williams o18.5 games
1120a Venus Williams wins by 2-0
245p FC Zestaponi (win or draw)
Current Streak: 3
Venus is a surprising -160 to win 2-0 in the second tennis match. FC Zestaponi w/d is about 61% later in the afternoon, too, so it seems like a straightforward plan today.
Wednesday 7/1 - PM
,
Labels:
mlb week 13,
plays
Just one for tonight. I'm not in the mood to think very hard.
Plays
705p Cleveland -116 2x
Streak for the Cash
10p Calgary vs. Montreal
Current Streak: 0
Man, I can't wait for football season.
Plays
705p Cleveland -116 2x
Streak for the Cash
10p Calgary vs. Montreal
Current Streak: 0
Man, I can't wait for football season.
Wednesday 7/1 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 13,
plays
I got caught off guard and didn't expect there to be afternoon games today. Whoops.
Plays
135p Baltimore +137 2x
335p Oakland +118 2x
Leans
710p ARZ (Garland) +147 @ CIN (Cueto)
710p ATL (Jurrjens) -104 vs. PHL (Hamels)
705p CLE (Sowers) -118 vs. CHW (Contreras)
Seattle and Colorado have flashy Wagerline numbers, but neither of them particularly excite me this morning.
Streak for the Cash
10a Hewitt/Roddick 3 or 5 sets
Current Streak: 1
I've got the set prop around 62% to win. Start w/d in the afternoon.
Did the Streakmaster screw up yesterday? The Norwegian soccer game was definitely available when I posted, but obviously was taken down by the afternoon, replaced by an internation friendly the WSOP HORSE winner. Not that it matters.
Plays
135p Baltimore +137 2x
335p Oakland +118 2x
Leans
710p ARZ (Garland) +147 @ CIN (Cueto)
710p ATL (Jurrjens) -104 vs. PHL (Hamels)
705p CLE (Sowers) -118 vs. CHW (Contreras)
Seattle and Colorado have flashy Wagerline numbers, but neither of them particularly excite me this morning.
Streak for the Cash
10a Hewitt/Roddick 3 or 5 sets
Current Streak: 1
I've got the set prop around 62% to win. Start w/d in the afternoon.
Did the Streakmaster screw up yesterday? The Norwegian soccer game was definitely available when I posted, but obviously was taken down by the afternoon, replaced by an internation friendly the WSOP HORSE winner. Not that it matters.
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