Tuesday 12/30

Headed to vegas...

Ore +2.5 -106 2x
Nev -3 +105 2x

Good luck

Monday 12/29

As you may have guessed, I'm headed to LA for the next week. I'm going to attempt to post all of my plays, like:

Northwestern +12 -103 2x

But I may not get the chance to post them all in time. If nothing changes between now and then, the rest of my New Year's week plays will be as follows:

2x - Oregon, Nevada, Vandy
3x - Minny, Sparty, Ole Miss, Utah

While I am on vacation, I'm not planning on looking at college basketball, so the week starting Jan 5th will be Week 3 for blog purposes.

Enjoy the New Year.

Sunday 12/28

Just putting everything in now. I've got other things to take care of today.

NFL
Buffalo +5.5 -109 3x
Minnesota -7 +102 2x
San Diego -7 -101 2x

NCAAB
Indiana State +8.5 +103 1x
Missouri State +1.5 -102 1x
North Carolina -32 -106 1x

Good luck today.

Saturday 12/27

Kind of small card today. Tomorrow is looking chalky.

NCAAF
Wisconsin +6 -103 2x
Pass: Miami

NCAAB
West Virginia +3 +110 1x
Louisville -13.5 +103 1x

Good luck today.

A Quick Note

The Motor City is annoying to listen to, so I crunched the numbers for the first sixteen weeks of the NFL season. First point is that I was functionally retarded betting on the NFL this season (and last season, too). Secondly, the same pattern as below occurs, but it is a bit more masked. I'll explain more after the Rose Bowl, but figured I would throw this up in case anyone was curious.

NCAAF Line Movement Revisited

After Moneyline and I had our discussion about line movement this week, I thought I would update the NCAA statistics. I plan on putting the NFL line movement and contrarian stats together after I get back from the Rose Bowl. Here is the first table:


Recall, that these stats have been compiled from my list of Tuesday leans (Early) and what line the games closed at (Close). The blue indicates the record for the games I actually played.

Moneyline and Vegas have been hinting for a while that line movement scares them away from plays. An initial glance at the table seems to indicate that they are correct in their assessment. However, I remain convinced that reverse (or negative above) line movement remains a solid indicator that a wager should be made.


If the negative line movement was 0.5 or 1 points, then yes, playing those games during the 2008 college football season was a losing proposition (See how I subtly reminded the readers of the sample? That's how you get a Lemmy!). Those games were 29-39 at close. However, if you used games that moved 1.5 points or more, suddenly reverse line movement was a great way of pointing you in the right direction.

Obviously, more extensive research needs to be conducted. I'm particularly interested to see if the NFL, where lines move less often and at a smaller magnitude, shows a similar pattern. Regardless, this is one sport for one season. However, my empirical evidence over the last three years of gambling makes me think that these statistics will be replicated.

Feel free to tell me where I screwed up in the comments.

EDIT: I figured I would throw these together just for completeness. This also seems to follow what I had already thought about positive (or forward) line movement:



It doesn't look there is much +EV for games where the line moves in a contrarian's favor.

Friday 12/26

Hope everyone had a great holiday. I spent part of mine eating dinner at a Pennsylvania Turnpike Sbarro, so that was kind of different. Fortunately, I always have gambling and alcohol to make me feel better about myself.*

Florida Atlantic +7 +100 2x

If I happen to ditch this post-holiday bout of lethargy, I might get one of those theory posts up tonight.

*Just making sure everyone knows that last sentence was sarcastic. It's hard to get that across in the written word.

Wednesday 12/24

Headed out for the holiday and I won't have access to a computer until tomorrow. If you noticed, Hawaii dropped off the leans list yesterday. As ML explains, there is no contrarian angle here. I haven't had time to look over the buckets card and I am already running late, so it is an off day for me. Good luck if you play anything.

Leans - Week 17

The NFL card, as usual in Week 17, is wholly unappealing.

Strong Leans

Oregon +3 vs. Okla St (12/30)
Nevada -2.5 vs. Maryland (12/30)
Mich St +7.5 vs. Georgia (1/1)
Cincy -2.5 vs. Va Tech (1/1)
Ole Miss +4.5 vs. Texas Tech (1/2)
Ohio St +8 vs. Texas (1/5)

SF -3 vs. WAS

Moderate Leans

FAU +7 vs. Central Mich (12/26)
Wisky +5.5 vs. FSU (12/27)
NC State +7 vs. Rutgers (12/29)
N'western +12 vs. Mizzou (12/29)
Minny +8.5 vs. Kansas (12/31)
Vandy +3.5 vs. Boston College (12/31)

PHL -1 vs. DAL

Weak Leans

Ore St -3 vs. Pitt (12/31)
Kentucky +3 vs. ECU (1/2)
Buffalo +4.5 vs. UConn (1/3)

BUF +6.5 vs. NE

Tuesday 12/23

For those of you interested in those sort of things, Moneyline and I have been discussing the merits of reverse line movement. In other news, I didn't realize until I went to type this post, but I have developed quite the taste for chalk. I guess when I go bust by the end of January, I'll learn my lesson.

NCAAF
TCU -2.5 +103 3x

NCAAB
Wisconsin -1 +102 2x
Arizona -2.5 +104 1x
Santa Clara +4.5 +101 1x

Good luck tonight.

Review of Week 16

I actually have nothing to bitch about this week. I wish I had seen the Lions had the flu before I put my wager in, but the line didn't react to it, so if anything, it probably made them more attractive.

VCU +13 @ Oklahoma 1x
Pittsburgh -7 @ Florida State 1x
Providence +5 @ Boston College 1x

What did happen was that I backdoored two and a half games in two days. I fully expect that karma will bite me in the ass and I will lose my next ten basketball wagers. VCU was down 18 with under two to play, Pitt needed a 8-0 run to close out the game to cover, and I'd love to know what happened in the Providence game, but Yahoo went on the fritz. I know I was confused when Matchbook graded it a tie on Saturday.

I'll be on TCU tomorrow, most likely for a triple. As VW pointed out, Santa Clara and Wisky will be must plays on the buckets side.

Monday 12/22

Week in review will be up after dinner.

James Madison +3.5 -103 1x
Chattanooga +12 +101 1x
Northeastern +1.5 +104 1x

Passing the Packers, which means they will probably win by 14. Good luck tonight.

Sunday 12/21

I had another decent day yesterday. Maybe I remembered how to wager intelligently? I'll go with Option B: Variance.

Early Games

Detroit +7 -103 2x
Cleveland -3 +116 2x
New England -7.5 2x

Passes: Tennessee, New England

Detroit was nearly upgraded to a 3x play. I still might drop another 1x on it.

For Cleveland, -3 +116 is slightly better than -2.5 -108. Plus, I'm a juice whore.

I changed my mind on New England and bought it back. The more I look into it, the less I like it. Really the only metric that makes them appealing is Wagerline. Every other consensus number I can find is bad.

Tennessee didn't make the cut for line movement reasons.

Late Games

NFL
Washington +5 -102 2x
Oakland +7 +104 2x

NCAAB
Pittsburgh -7 +104 1x

Nightcap

NCAAF
Southern Miss +4.5 -101 2x

Going by straight numbers, this is a better play than either Colo St or Rizo was yesterday. For some reason, I feel much less confident in the Eagles.

Good luck today.

Saturday 12/20

Well, it looks like I am putting my ideas about anti-pub chalk to the test today. [EDIT: VW is right. I'm not really putting my chalk ideas to the test at all. I'm playing some early chalk and got lazy writing because I was tired this morning.] The consensus numbers are not there for any of these early basketball plays but Dook. I don't think I saw a single poster on the Cardinals or Rednecks.

Earlies (12p-3:30p)

NCAAB
WVU -9 -104 1x
Duke -6 -103 1x
Louisville -9 -101 1x

NCAAF
Colorado State +2.5 +101 2x

Afternooners (3:30p-7p)

NCAAB
Auburn +3.5 -106 1x
Providence +5 -106 1x
Gonzaga -3.5 +102 1x

Nightcaps (7p-12a)

NCAAF
Arizona -3.5 +105 2x

NCAAB
VCU +13 +108 1x
Rhode Island +4 -103 1x

I changed my mind for the buckets plays. I saw enough smart people on them to make me think they are the correct wagers.

Good luck.

A look to tomorrow...

I know I am playing Colorado State and Arizona tomorrow in football, but this ought to prove interesting...

Friday 12/19

Passing Richmond and Charleston tonight. I'm lacking desire to wager tonight given tomorrow's likely outstanding card to play.

Be back bright and early with the Saturday plays.

Thursday 12/18

I felt like Matchbook was running low on funds, so I put in a few losers for this evening.

Jacksonville +6 -113 2x

This line is actually better than the +5.5 -108 that was also available.

Mississippi State +5 +100 1x

The only things I know about this team is that Hanblow's little brother transferred and that their coach doesn't like the towelheads. I'm sure Cincy will win by 30.

Leans - NFL Week 16 and Bowls

Passing the entire NCAAB slate. I didn't get a whole lot of time to look at anything again and there are no games that jump right out at me. There is no need to force anything before conference season starts up.

I haven't seen a whole lot of other respectable gambler's leans yet, but I am a bit surprised that there is this much chalk on my current card. I checked my plays from the last two years and I only played three and two favorites respectively. This isn't troubling because as I've talked about recently, I think there is some upside to anti-pub chalk (even though Moneyline has some reservations).

Bowl Leans will be updated next Tuesday, NFL Leans Friday.

Strong Leans

Arizona -3 vs. BYU (12/20)
Colo St +3 vs. Fresno (12/20)
TCU -2.5 vs. Boise (12/23)
Oregon +3 vs. Okla St (12/30)
Nevada -1.5 vs. Maryland (12/30)
Mich St +7.5 vs. Georgia (1/1)
Cincy -2 vs. VT (1/1)
Ole Miss +4.5 vs. Texas Tech (1/2)

DET +7 vs. NO
SEA +5 vs. NYJ
OAK +7 vs. HOU

Moderate Leans

Wisky +5 vs. FSU (12/27)
NW +12 vs. Mizzou (12/29)
Buffalo +4.5 vs. UConn (1/3)
tOSU +9 vs. Texas (1/5)

JAX +6 vs. IND (Thu.)
NE -9 vs. ARZ
WAS +5 vs. PHL

Weak Leans

So Miss +4.5 vs. Troy (12/21)
Hawaii -1 vs. ND (12/24)
FAU +7 vs. CMU (12/26)
NCSU +8.5 vs. Rutgers (12/29)
Minny +10 vs. Kansas (12/31)
Oregon St -3 vs. Pitt (12/31)
Kentucky +2.5 vs. ECU (1/2)

MIN -3.5 vs. ARZ

Tuesday 12/16

Off to the company Christmas Party. I hope someone pulls a Meredith for my amusement.

Passing South Florida. This is a play I would likely make if I knew more about both teams. It would likely still be a play if I had more time to pore over some data. Oh well.

I'll have Bowl and NFL leans up tomorrow.

Review of Week 15

I had a good week. That makes two in a row. In the words of the immortal Lou Brown, win another week and "we've got ourselves a winning streak." No need to go through all the games because there was only one nausea-inducer this week.

Baltimore -3 vs. Pittsburgh 2x

There is some question as to the rules interpretation here from Holmes' TD catch. The play was initially ruled a completion and down at the one. Then, Walt Coleman overturned the call. I've seen some people claim that a little known rule should apply that (From 951 on RMMB):

Should a receiver make a legal catch of the ball with both feet in bounds in the end zone, a touchdown shall be awarded even if no part of the ball was deemed to break the plane of the goal line while in possession of the receiving player.

Of course, WillyDuer found conflicting evidence:

Your hard copy is as recent as anything I can find online. NFL.com is useless, which is kind of surprising. The AP game recap cites page 776, which discusses the ball's location and not the receiver's feet. Perhaps there's still an exception that means that feet = touchdown, even though it's inconsistent with everything else.

Which is fine. I can accept that there may have been some gray area in the rulebook. What is absolutely not true is this (from Peter King's MMQB):

I called NFL vice president of officiating Mike Pereira, who'd spoken with Coleman and the replay assistant following the game. Now, I have to tell you that in my jobs at NBC and Sports Illustrated I have occasion to speak with Pereira nearly every weekend about a play or two from the games, either to clarify something for the Football Night in America show or for my column. Pereira calls them the way he sees them. My experience is that Pereira does not whitewash a bad call. And last night, I asked him point blank if he thought there was indisputable visual evidence that the ball broke the plane of the goal line. "Yes, I do,'' he said.

Bull. Shit. Not a single person in America except Walt Coleman and Mike Pereira believes that.

Whatever, I was still up 5x for the day. Enough bitching. Let's watch Syracuse win by 30.

Monday 12/15

And away we go...

Cleveland State +12.5 -102 1x

Good luck.

Sunday 12/14

It was nice to take a few days off from thinking about gambling. Back to the grind today with NCAAB starting up tomorrow.

Early Games

Cincinnati +6.5 +106 2x
Houston +3 -110 2x
Washington 2h -3.5 +111 1x

Late Games

Minnesota +3.5 +108 2x
Carolina -7.5 +104 2x
Oakland +6.5 +105 2x
Baltimore -3 +105 2x

Listening to Phil Simms is like watching a botched abortion.

The end of the Ravens' game makes gambling less than fun.

Nightcap

Dallas -3 -104 2x

Good luck.

Leans - Week 15, Part 2

Passing the Bears tonight, though they do fit into that home, anti-public favorite category. I'll do a similar analysis for the NFL once the season is over. Leans are in order.

Strong Leans

BAL -3
DAL -3
OAK +7
CIN +7
HOU +3

Moderate Leans

CAR -9
KC +5.5
MIN +3
JAX +1

How Contrarian Was College Football Season?

The research project I mentioned on Saturday night is a quantitative assessment of the contrarian-ness* of the college football season. There are some huge caveats here. One is, of course, sample size. The second is the binning of Wagerline percentages. Different ways of binning will yield different results.

I think this last caveat is most important. While people like myself, Vegaswatch, Jonny, and Moneyline are attempting to make sports wagering a quantitative exercise, quite obviously there is a lot of subjectivity involved. What makes me place a bet on one five-point dog receiving 38% of the action at Wagerline versus another? Subjectivity. One of those teams might be Ole Miss the other might be Fresno State. I feel like Ole Miss is an underrated football squad, so there is value in taking their side. The opposite is true of Fresno.

In the figure below, "Wagerline %" is the percent of Wagerline users who selected the FAVORITE. Therefore, a value of 39 indicates there is a public dog and a value of 75 indicates the favorite is extremely public. The record and winning percentage are again for the FAVORITES. Here are the results for all 684 Division 1 NCAA Football games that statistics were available for on Wagerline.



Here is a philosophical question. If we agree that contrarians generally bet on anti-public underdogs successfully, and that gambling markets are efficient, then shouldn't there be a way to exploit favorites? The answer could be yes or no. One possibility is that since we know that gamblers tend to bet on favorites, we need to relax our definition of an anti-public favorite. Perhaps 54% on a favorite constitutes being "anti-public," however we define it? The other option is that favorites cover slightly more across all "public" bins.

With the obvious small sample size caveat, I think that, in general, favorites getting less than 55% of the action at Wagerline are worth looking at. It also appears that contrarians using only Wagerline numbers did not do well until the percentages were greater than 68%.

Another factor that I consider when placing a bet is home field advantage. I think it is just anecdotal over the years, but I prefer to be on a home team than a road team. In the figures below, I've separated out the sides for home favorites and road favorites.

HOME FAVORITES

ROAD FAVORITES

EDIT: When you upload more than one image at a time to blogger, they come out in reverse order of the way you uploaded them. Also, proofread your posts before you put them out there for the world to see. Idiot.

In this case, "anti-public" home favorites are even better than an ordinary favorite. Likewise, "anti-public" home dogs (bottom image) are better than an ordinary underdog. While certainly not exhaustive, I think these statistics do show some evidence for home field advantage in football wagering.

Lastly, I looked to see if the percentages changed much given a larger spread. The following four tables show how winning percentages change among consensus numbers for spreads less than 3, between 3.5 and 7, between 7.5 and 14, and greater than 14.5

FAVORITE GIVING 3 OR LESS

FAVORITE GIVING BETWEEN 3.5 AND 7

FAVORITE GIVING BETWEEN 7.5 AND 14

FAVORITE GIVING MORE THAN 14

Because sample sizes start getting really small here, it is difficult to gain a lot of information, but I hypothesize that short "anti-public" favorites and moderate "anti-public" dogs were the most profitable bets to make.

EDIT: It would help if I had uploaded the images correctly. Long (>7 pts) "anti-public" favorites appear to be profitable. The part about moderate "anti-public" dogs still stands, though you can probably add short dogs to the list as well (<14 pts).

Feel free to draw your own conclusions from the data and put them in the comments below.

*I can make new words out of contrarian, too.

Looking at the Bowl Line Guesses

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

Leans - Week 15

I'll be doing bowl game leans next week. Just NFL Week 15 in this post.

Strong Leans

DAL -3 vs. NYG
CIN +6.5 vs. WAS
OAK +7 vs. NE

Moderate Leans

CAR -7.5 vs. DEN
BAL -1 vs. PIT
HOU +3 vs. TEN
KC +5 vs. SD
JAX +1 vs. GB


Weak Leans

BUF +7 @ NYJ
TB +3 @ ATL

With only three tiers, I wasn't sure how to express this, but the moderate leans are in order and there is a pretty significant drop off between the Texans and Chiefs in my mind.

Review of Week 14

Wow, I actually had a positive week. I forget how to locate the green button.

Buffalo +15 vs. Ball State
Thanks to this game and Tulsa losing the C-USA championship game, the GMAC Bowl should be a treat.

UConn -2.5 vs. Pitt
If Tyler Lorenzen ever takes another snap, it will be too soon. I'm pretty sure my old ass would be more accurate than that guy.

Army +10.5 vs. Navy
Although I would make the play again tomorrow, this one never had a shot.

Florida -10 vs. Alabama
When I am driving around on a Saturday night, I would much rather listen to Eagles' pregame than the SEC Championship Game. Thanks ESPN Radio-Philadelphia!

Hawaii +7.5 vs. Cincinnati
Good teams always play like hell on the island the last game of the year [/square]

Arkansas State +12 @ Troy
Troy apparently went up and down the field on the Red Wolves. I have no idea if this is true.

Jacksonville +6.5 @ Chicago
How's that $72 million extension working out for you, Dave? Asshole.

Houston +6 @ Green Bay
Matt Schaub >> Sage Rosenfels. Much.

Seattle +7 vs. New England
This is one of the few times I can remember square money inflating a line. Thanks, guys!

San Francisco +4.5 vs. NY Jets
Now that is the Brett Favre everyone knows and loves.

'Tis the season

EDIT: Goddammit. I was out Christmas shopping and Moneyline beat me to it. Oh well, I'm sure we'll be different enough that people can heckle me.

I'm going to try to guess the lines in all of the bowl games before they come out. Why? Because I feel like adding content and the big research project I am working on is only about 30% complete.

EagleBank Bowl - Dec 20 - Washington, DC
Wake Forest vs. Navy -3

New Mexico Bowl - Dec 20 - Albuquerque
Colorado State vs. Fresno State -2

magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl - Dec 20 - St. Petersburg
Memphis vs. South Florida -11

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl - Dec 20 - Las Vegas
BYU -5 vs. Arizona

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - Dec 21 - New Orleans
Southern Miss vs. Troy -7

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl - Dec 23 - San Diego
Boise State vs. TCU -9

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - Dec 24 - Honolulu
Hawaii vs. Notre Dame -2

Motor City Bowl - Dec 26 - 8th Circle of Hell
Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan -10

Meineke Car Care Bowl - Dec 27 - Charlotte
West Virginia -2 vs. North Carolina

Champs Sports Bowl - Dec 27 - Orlando
Wisconsin vs. Florida State -13

Emerald Bowl - Dec 27 - San Francisco
Miami vs. California -3

Independence Bowl - Dec 28 - Shreveport
Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech -3

Papajohns.com Bowl - Dec 29 - Birmingham
NC State vs. Rutgers -6

Valero Alamo Bowl - Dec 29 - San Antonio
Missouri -18 vs. Northwestern

Roady's Humanitarian Bowl - Dec 30 - Boise
Maryland -4 vs. Nevada

Texas Bowl - Dec 30 - Houston
Rice -5 vs. Western Michigan

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl - Dec 30 - San Diego
Oklahoma State -13 vs. Oregon

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl - Dec 31 - Fort Worth
Houston -6 vs. Air Force

Brut Sun Bowl - Dec 31 - El Paso
Oregon State -5 vs. Pittsburgh

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl - Dec 31 - Nashville
Boston College -10 vs. Vanderbilt

Insight Bowl - Dec 31 - Tempe
Kansas -12 vs. Minnesota

Chick-fil-a Bowl - Dec 31 - Atlanta
LSU vs. Georgia Tech -8

Outback Bowl - Jan 1 - Tampa
South Carolina vs. Iowa -2

Capital One Bowl - Jan 1 - Orlando
Georgia -8 vs. Michigan State

Konica Minolta Gator - Jan 1 - Jacksonville
Clemson -3 vs. Nebraska

Rose Bowl Game presented by Citi - Jan 1 - Pasadena
Penn State vs. USC -7

FedEx Orange Bowl - Jan 1 - Miami
Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech -6

AT&T Cotton Bowl - Jan 2 - Dallas
Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech -4

Autozone Liberty Bowl - Jan 2 - Memphis
Kentucky -2 vs. East Carolina

Allstate Sugar Bowl - Jan 2 - New Orleans
Utah vs. Alabama -14

International Bowl - Jan 3 - Toronto
Buffalo vs. Connecticut -7

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl - Jan 5 - Glendale
Ohio State vs. Texas -6

GMAC Bowl - Jan 6 - Mobile
Tulsa -9 vs. Ball State

FedEx BCS National Championship Game - Jan 8 - Miami
Oklahoma vs. Florida -2

I'll evaluate this tomorrow or Tuesday once the lines come out. I'm sure this is pathetic.

Sunday 12/7

I could legitimately play as few as two and as many eight NFL games today. San Francisco and Houston are the only locks on the card. Obviously, I have some work to do. Be back later with some actual selections.

Earlies

Jacksonville +6.5 +103 2x
Houston +6 +115 2x

I might be out-thinking myself here, but I found warts on all of the other early plays. I have a hard time believing the books are trying to attract Indy action when the Colts only put up 10 last week. As far as the other lines go, the CLE/TEN and MIN/DET lines seem pretty sharp. Detroit is the closest pass.

Late Games

Seattle +7 +105 2x
San Francisco +4.5 +105 3x

Good luck.

Saturday 12/6

Earlies

UConn -2.5 -112 2x
Army +10.5 -107 2x

I'm a little pissed off at myself. I had -2.5 -112 and -3 +105 available for UConn. I looked at the half point calculator to see which was the better price and it told me the -2.5 line. However, I forgot to switch it from NFL to NCAAF. Turns out that the -3 +105 was a much better line (because statistically, an NFL game is more likely to land on 3 when the spread is three than a college game). At the end of the day, it's only 4 cents off fair value, but it still pisses me off.

Middays

Florida -10 +102 3x

I am so glad the regular season is over after today. What an abortion of a season.

Nightcaps

Arkansas State +12 -106 2x
Hawaii +7.5 -106 2x

Good luck. At this rate, I obviously need it.

Friday 12/5

I'm sure Testicle will be up 21-0 at half.

Buffalo +15 -101 2x

Came real close to making this a triple. Good luck tonight.

Leans - Week 14, Part 2

While we're on the fantasy football tangent, are the books indirectly telling you to pick up the 49ers defense this week?

Strong Leans

Florida -10
UConn -2.5
Hawaii +7
Army +10.5

JAX +6.5
SEA +4.5
SF +3.5

Moderate Leans

Buff +15 (Fri.)
Ark St +11
USF +7

CIN +13.5
HOU +6
CLE +13.5
DET +9.5

Thursday 12/4

I really ought to wager on Oakland tonight, just because if Marmalard sucks, I lose my somewhat lucrative fantasy football league (first prize is roughly 25x).

Of course, I mean that if I was was a pussy who hedged out fantasy football games, then I would bet on Oakland. I always have the DeAngelo Williams train to ride on Sunday. Good luck if you play the Raiders.

Updated leans forthcoming.

Totals

I've been wanting to add totals to my gambling repertoire for some time now. Two things have been keeping me from doing it: 1. early on, I was unwilling to dabble in a new (to me) gambling theory, and 2. by the time I wanted to, I was already deep in the hole. I'm obviously even deeper in the hole now, but I still feel like I am leaving profits on the table by not including them in my wagering strategy.

During the early parts of college basketball season, I will evaluate totals just as I would sides and keep record of them. I won't be posting them, but I will put the results up once I feel I've come to a reasonable conclusion as to whether they are worthwhile to me. This is important, because I plan on playing baseball this summer, and totals were extremely profitable to other contrarians last year during baseball season.

Stay tuned.

Leans - Week 14

I have no idea what the books are thinking with the SF and SEA lines. I guess I should just chalk up losses right now.

Strong Leans

Florida -9.5 vs. Bama
UConn -2.5 vs. Pitt
Hawaii +7.5 vs. Cincy

OAK +10 @ SD (Thu.)
JAX +6.5 @ CHI
SEA +4.5 vs. NE
SF +4 vs. NYJ

Moderate Leans

USF +7 @ WVU
Mizzou +16.5 @ OU
Army +11 vs. Navy

CIN +13.5 @ IND
HOU +6 @ GB
STL +13.5 @ ARZ
CLE +13.5 @ TEN
DET +9.5 @ MIN

Weak Leans

Buff +15 @ Ball St (Fri.)
Ark St +11 @ Troy
W Ky +7 @ FIU

WAS +5 @ BAL

Tuesday 12/2

I know that I said a week ago that I wasn't playing any college basketball for another two weeks, but I also wasn't anticipating the books installing #10 Purdue as a two point favorite against #4 Duke in the B10/ACC challenge. Anytime there is a short line with a Duke or a Carolina against a team that hasn't been a perennial powerhouse since somebody named the Big Dog was there forces me into an early play.

Purdon't -2 -103 3x

I'll be back with leans much later on this evening.

An Abbreviated Review of Week 13

I'm ill again. Not over gambling, though I guess I could be given that TMLJ is shutting down and I am relatively pleased about "only" losing 2.5x for the week. Record is updated along the side.