Sunday 11/30

I have yet to see a highlight of the FlInt-FAU game, which is probably a good thing for my parents' furniture.

This might be it for the day:

SF +6.5 -102 2x
CIN +7 -101 2x
CLE +4.5 +104 2x
WAS +3.5 +107 2x

Good luck.

Saturday 11/29

I'm apparently the only contrarian alive not thrilled about taking the Jayhawks early this afternoon.

Earlies/Middays (12p-7p)

Duke +8 -106 2x
Baylor +22 -102 2x
Louisiana Tech +4.5 +102 2x
Florida State +15.5 -102 2x
Fl Int +4 +102 2x

Nightcap (7p-12a)

Oklahoma State +9.5 +101 2x

I still like Oregon, but not at -112 juice. Vandy is pretty much unplayable. Good luck.

Friday 11/28

I'm glad I haven't added totals into my strategy. Yesterday would have been straight up murder. As it was, I was still pissed for half the day. Fortunately, the good game was on while I was drinking.

UTEP +6 -102 2x
Kent St +9 +103 2x
Arkansas +5 +101 3x

My biggest pass was Toledo. I wanted to be on them, but they didn't make the cut on Tuesday and that means the Rockets shouldn't be on the card.

Good luck today. If you are following me, you are probably going to need it.

Thursday 11/27

Putting these in for sure. Could possibly end up on Seattle, but I'm not paying high juice this early in the morning for a game I'm not terribly excited about.

Detroit +11 -105 2x
Seattle +12.5 -110 2x
Philadelphia -3 +100 2x

I'll update from home if I change my mind about the afternoon game. Good luck.

College Basketball and Units

In case you hadn't noticed, college basketball has entered it's third week already. My plan is to take a week off from college sports after Championship Weekend is over. After that, I'll be jumping full on into college basketball. Hopefully, by then, the square run that is currently ongoing will be over.

Also, I'm going to make another tweak to my unit assignment. Obviously, I'm not good enough to have a 1-5 sliding scale. Instead, I am going to start making my plays as mostly 2x, with a jump to 3x for more confident plays. Essentially, any play before that was a (1), (2), or (3) will now be a 2x and plays that were (4) or (5) will now be 3x. My hope is that about 75-80% of my plays will be 2x.

Finally, I didn't have time to update my record this week. I'm going back to my mom's house for the holiday, so it won't get done until next Monday. Suffice to say I lost about 6x each in college (4-7) and pros (1-4-1). Due to the above adjustment to my units, I'm just going to get rid of the (old) parts of the bookkeeping on the right. There's really no point now that the experiment is over.

I'll have tomorrow's plays in before I leave for home. Good luck this weekend.

Leans - Week 13

Well, I'm definitely going broke this weekend.

Strong Leans

Ark +5 vs. LSU (Fri.)
Baylor +20 @ TTU
Vandy +4 @ Wake
Oregon +3 @ Ore St
Duke +8 vs. UNC
LaTech +4.5 vs. Nevada
OK St +7 vs. OU

SEA +12.5 @ DAL (Thu.)
PHL -3 vs. ARZ (Thu.)
SF +7 @ BUF
SD -5.5 vs. ATL
TB -3.5 vs. NO

Moderate Leans

Kent St +9 @ Buff (Fri.)
UTEP +5.5 @ ECU (Fri.)
FIU +5 @ FAU
UMd +6.5 @ BC

DET +11 vs. TEN (Thu.)
CLE +4.5 vs. IND
CIN +7 vs. BAL
WAS +3.5 vs. NYG

Weak Leans

EMU +10 vs. CMU (Fri.)
Miss St +14 @ Ole Miss (Fri.)
KU +14 @ Mizz
UAB +8.5 @ UCF
Aub +14.5 @ Bama
FSU +16.5 vs. Fla

Sunday 11/23

I'm just putting all the NFL plays in now. I doubt there will be a play on college game tonight.

Houston +2.5 +109 (2)
Tennessee -5.5 +103 (2)
Miami +1 -101 (2)
Arizona +3 +104 (3)
Seattle +3 +101 (4)
San Diego -3 +117 (3)

Good luck.

Dancin' down on Sunset Strip

I know where I'll be spending NYE.


See you in Pasadena.

Saturday 11/22

This card is deceptively awful for late November. Two ugly dogs to start the day.

Earlies (12p-3:30p)

Tennessee +3 -105 (2)
Louisville +7 -106 (2)

Middays (3:30p-7p)

Mississippi +3 +102 (3) - Would have been (5) if not for the late move
Nevada +6.5 +105 (4)
Wake Forest +1 +102 (2)

Who doesn't love the Sun Belt?

Late Games (7p-12a)

Oklahoma -7 +100 (3)
UL Monroe +7 -101 (2)
UL Lafayette +10 -102 (2)
Idaho +23 +100 (2)

Can't wait to be up late refreshing Yahoo tonight. Good luck.

Comprehension

Read the 7th paragraph, asshat.

Be back tomorrow.

More Line Movement Stats

Jonny came up with a good idea for another stat to look at. He wanted to know what effect crossing a key number (3 or 7) had on the records. In this case, I started running into sample size issues. I didn't even bother running the stats for favorites because I play so few of them that results would be worthless. Results are posted below:

Nomenclature:

"7 Dog +" means the line moved from 6.5 or less to 7 or above.
"7 Dog -" means the line moved from 7.5 or more to 7 or below.
"3 Dog +" means the line moved from 2.5 or less to 3 or above
"3 Dog -" means the line moved from 3.5 or more to 3 or below.



I find it very interesting that even with the small sample size, it appears line movement around key numbers is a bad thing for contrarians, at least this season. Again, take this post with the usual caveats of where the sample came from, particularly in this case.

***********************************************

Yes, I am bored tonight. I put together some other relevant stats. First, a frequency distribution of line movement.



I am not at all surprised that this approaches a normal distribution (other nerds know this is due to the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem), but is left skewed, since I am trying to be on the sharp side of games. Note that this is just leans, so I am obviously preferentially picking out the sharp sides on Tuesdays. Which is some decent affirmation that record aside, I know what I am doing.

The other graph shows the record for all line movements. This is basically just expanding on Wednesday's post, but I thought somebody might be interested in it.



Not much really surprising here except for positive and negative line movements of one point. I don't have a good subjective reason for it, so I am just going to chalk it up to small sample size and variance.

If there are any other analyses that seem interesting and won't take an obscene amount of time, throw them in the comments and I'll see what I can do.

Friday 11/21

Using the posts from this week, I think Bowling Green presents a decent opportunity. The line has moved from -3.5 to -4.5, and though it isn't terribly anti-public, BGSU is a favorite so judging how contrariany this side is different than if they were an underdog.

Bowling Green -4.5 -104 (2)
Miami (OH) +3 +103 (2)

For the same reasons, I am passing SJSU. Fresno really sucks, but I can't imagine fading them for the 4th straight week when there is positive line movement is a good idea. Or I am just being square. One or the other.

Good luck.

Leans - Week 12, Part 2

Strong Leans

Miami(OH) (Fri.) +3
Tenny +3
Idaho +23
Ole Miss +3.5
Nevada +6
Okla -7

HOU +3
SD -2.5
MIA -1
SEA +3
ARZ +3

Moderate Leans

SJSU +2.5 (Fri.)
UL-Laf +9
UL-Monroe +6.5
Iowa St +10
Arky -1.5
L'ville +7
Tulane +28.5

MIN +1

Reverse Line Movement

One of the other questions that has come up over on ML's blog is whether reverse line movement is a good indicator that a game should be played. The first question that needs to be asked is what constitutes reverse line movement? I've run numbers for anti-public teams that were originally on my Tuesday Leans lists and had Negative Line Movement of 1, 1.5, 2, and 2.5 points. The results are below:

One Point or more of Negative Line Movement

All Leans - Early: 35-25, Late: 33-27
Plays - Early: 24-17, Late: 22-19

One and a Half Points or more of Negative Line Movement

All Leans - Early: 25-12, Late: 23-14
Plays - Early: 19-8, Late: 17-10

Two Points or more of Negative Line Movement

All Leans - Early: 15-6, Late: 13-8
Plays - Early 11-3, Late: 9-5

Two and a Half Points or more of Negative Line Movement

All Leans - Early: 8-3, Late: 7-2
Plays - Early: 7-4, Late: 6-3

The two plays where waiting cost me were in Week 8, Rutgers opened as one point dog against UConn, closed as a three point favorite and went on to win by 2. The other game was in Week 6 when Stanford played Notre Dame, opened as a 7.5 point dog and the line closed at 5.5. The game ended up on 7.

Jonny and ML have been questioning whether all of the value is lost in a line that has already moved significantly. I think the results above say no. You are still winning well above 50% of your games when the line moves more than a point. In fact, the more it moves, the more confident I would feel in my play.

That isn't to say that you should play every reverse line movement you see. Remember what is being sampled here. If you liked the game already, the reverse line movement should be one more thing to tell you to go ahead and play the game.

Looking at Line Movement

One question that gets asked a lot over at TMLJ and RMMB is whether you should wait to put your plays in until the last second or place them earlier. I've run the numbers for the 2008 NCAA season so far and the results are inconclusive, which makes me kind of pissy, since I spent a solid 3 hours doing this research.

I need to define something before moving forward. Positive line movement means getting more points for your play. For example, if the Penn State line opens at -15 and closes at -13, that is defined as positive line movement. The opposite is true for negative line movement. Also, I am only looking at games that made my original Tuesday Leans posts throughout the year. I have neither the time nor energy to look up every game. On top of that, I think this is a better sample, since the concern is mainly games to be bet on anyway. The results follow.

For all Tuesday Leans if played early:

Positive Line Movement: 34-44-1
Negative Line Movement: 52-45
No Line Movement: 24-18-2
Total: 110-107-3

For all Tuesday Leans if played at closing line:

Positive Line Movement: 39-40
Negative Line Movement: 32-22
No Line Movement: 24-18-2
Total: 113-105-2

For plays that were included in Tuesday Leans if played early:

Positive Line Movement: 18-20-1
Negative Line Movement: 32-22
No Line Movement: 9-11-2
Total: 59-53-3

For plays that were included in Tuesday Leans if played at closing line:

Positive Line Movement: 22-17
Negative Line Movement: 30-24
No Line Movement: 9-11-2
Total: 61-52-2

One obvious conclusion when looking at the record at the bottom of the list (61-52-2) is that I should not play games that are not on my leans list. This record is relevant because I currently make my plays roughly at the closing line. Added on plays happen because I am following somebody or something catches my eye in my Early Saturday hungover state. Plays added on are 7-12-2. Some might classify that as minus-EV. I call it a drinking penalty.

Beyond that, it appears that making the plays right before kickoff is slightly advantageous if you have no information about which direction any single game is going to move. I don't think you need this post to tell what you should do if you know which way a line is going to move.

If you are interested in playing more with the data, send me an email at:
stallone-dot-am19psu-at-gmail-dot-com and I'll send you the Excel file. There are some things I am still interested in, most notably how much you gain or lose in probability by waiting for a line, but I don't have the time to do that kind of analysis. I'll look at the NFL next week. Comments are especially welcome on this post.

Leans - Week 12

Strong Leans

Miami(OH) +3 @ Toledo (Fri.)
UL-Laf +8.5 @ Troy
Tenny +3 @ Vandy
Idaho +23 @ Hawaii
Nevada +6 vs. Boise St
Oklahoma -7 vs. Texas Tech

HOU +3 @ CLE
SD -3 vs. IND
SEA +3.5 vs. WAS

Moderate Leans

SJSU +2.4 vs. Fresno (Fri.) - Concern over fading Fresno for like the 8th week in a row keeps this from being strong
UL-Monroe +6.5 @ FIU - Concern for playing ULM for like the 8th week in a row keeps this from being strong
Iowa St +10 @ K-State
Arkansas -1 @ Miss St
Wake -2.5 vs. BC

MIA -1 vs. NE
ARZ +3 vs. NYG

Weak Leans

Ole Miss +4 @ LSU - I really wish LSU hadn't struggled with Troy last week
UAB +6 vs. ECU
Wyoming +1.5 vs. Colo St
Arizona -2.5 vs. Oregon St

MIN +1 @ JAX
TEN -5 vs. NYJ

Review of Week 11

I would be remiss if I didn't mention the shenanigans in the Chargers-Steelers game last night. Clearly, the NFL makes way too much as a league to fix a game and it is exceedingly unlikely that somebody could get to the officials (though obviously, it happens). What is clear is that although the NFL publicly has an anti-gambling stance, they are acutely aware of what the point spreads are for individual games. I mean, unless they were really concerned about the 7th postseason tiebreaker.

Miami(FL) -4.5 @ Virginia Tech (2)

I really need to stop betting ACC games. How can there possibly be a contrarian edge when the whole conference has the same record?

Wyoming +6.5 @ UNLV (2)

All I knew about this game was that Wyoming sucked (which, by extension, tells you how bad Tennessee is) and that line was way too short.

Navy +4 vs. Notre Dame (3)

I don't actually care that I lost this game. Navy had no reasonable chance to cover and still managed a solid tease by getting two onside kicks in the last two minutes. Highly entertaining to watch. I'm sure my neighbors think I am a Navy fan.

Utah State +14 @ Louisiana Tech (2)

Utah State fired their coach today. That kind of sucks, since I've been riding the Aggie train for a few weeks now.

UL Monroe +22.5 @ Mississippi (4)

Strike one in my fade the SEC idea. However, I would like to note that I consider Ole Miss to be the 4th best team in the league this year. I'm hoping I get to be on them against a terrible LSU squad this coming week.

Kansas +14 vs. Texas (3)

I was feeling pretty crappy around 3pm on Saturday.

Auburn +9.5 vs. Georgia (3)

However, things started to turn around when Kodi Burns did not throw a pick 6.

UAB +3.5 @ Tulane (2)

And somehow I broke even minus juice in the earlies. So, yay, I guess.

New Mexico State +17 @ Fresno State (2)

[Ctrl+C]Fresno State is not a good football team.[Ctrl+V]

Air Force +3 vs. BYU (3)

Games like this always give me heartburn. Halftime score: AFA 14 BYU 10. Fucking Zoomies.

Troy +16.5 @ LSU (5)

I'm sure everyone who was near a TV Saturday night saw how this ended. I wasn't terribly surprised that Troy jumped out to a lead (though the magnitude was an eye opener), nor was I surprised that LSU came back.

Colorado +17.5 vs. Oklahoma State (3)

Pokes might be slightly overrated. The best thing on their resume is a close loss to Texas.

Washington +6.5 vs. UCLA (4)

I really, really, really to bet on the Apple Cup this week.

Seattle +3 vs. Arizona (4)

I am 1-9 in the NFL in November. I obviously know what I am doing.

Required Reading

If you are at all interested in the academic theory of sports gambling, you should read these three articles. Obviously, don't take everything as gospel, but it is worth understanding where the contrarian ideas are rooted.

Sunday 11/16

I am leaning toward only playing Seattle today. There is a chance I could be on KC or SD as well, but this card is terrible.

Seattle +3 -110 (4)

Good luck whatever you do.

Saturday 11/15

Sorry for the late post. Long night last night. And here we go.

Earlies (12p-3:30p)

Navy +4 -103 (3)
Utah State +14 -108 (2)
UL Monroe +22.5 +101 (4)
Kansas +14 +103 (3)
Auburn +9.5 -111 (3)
UAB +3.5 -104 (2) - No doubt by farting around here, UAB will lose by 4

Middays (3:30p-7p)

New Mexico State +17 -107 (2)
Air Force +3 -102 (3)

Nightcaps (7p-12a)

Troy +16.5 -108 (5)
Colorado +17.5 -104 (3)
Washington +6.5 +105 (4)

Passing Cuse. I am going back and forth on it which means it should be a pass.

Good luck tonight. I doubt I'll be around much to get pissed at the games.

Leans - Week 11, Part 2

Not a ton of change from Tuesday. I hope I haven't biased myself with my SEC argument yesterday, because ULM and Troy figure to get a good deal of action from me.

Strong Leans

L'ville +3 (Fri.)
UL-Monroe +21
Troy +17
Kansas +13
Auburn +9.5
Washington +7
Colo +17.5

KC +5
SEA +3

Moderate Leans

Utah St +14
Zona +6
NM State +17
Ill +9.5
Cuse +10
NCSU +3.5
Navy +4

SD +5
CIN +9.5
BAL +6.5

Thursday 11/13

Double dip tonight. Good luck.

Miami -4.5 +103 (2)
Wyoming +6.5 -102 (2)

There is obviously not a contrarian side in a Favre vs. Patriot matchup.

UPDATE 7:10p: The Pats are most definitely the contrarian side. Getting less than 50% as a fave on Wagerline and everyone on ESPN is pimping the Jets. It's taking a lot for me to lay off here.

Breaking Down the SEC

I get really tired of people claiming SEC Superiority year in and year out. Some years, it is absolutely warranted. For example, last year the SEC was a tough league just about top-to-bottom. Even Mississippi State made a bowl game last year. But just because something has been true previously, does not make it so in the future.

This week's Wednesday post was inspired by today's publishing of the BlogPoll, run by Brian Cook. In this week's edition, he mentions that a blog run by Bama and Vol fans (Third Saturday in Blogtober) had remorse about voting for Texas Tech #1:

For all the talk about how Texas Tech’s wins are better, is a win over Texas at home on a last second play that much better than a win over LSU in Baton Rouge in OT? Is beating Oklahoma State handily on your own turf that much more impressive than beating Georgia handily on theirs? The Raiders have only beaten two other teams that will get a bowl bid (Nebraska and Kansas) just as the Tide has, though Clemson could make it a third team.

The answer to the first two questions is "YES! YES! A THOUSAND TIMES YES!" LSU has had 50 hung on them by Florida and Georgia, with the Georgia shellacking coming at home. Georgia, in turn, had 50 hung on them by Florida. The better question should be, "Wasn't Alabama underwhelming beating LSU in overtime?" It certainly would be if Alabama was in the Big Ten.

Back to that Georgia game. I've postulated here before that the win over Georgia isn't as impressive as Bammer fans like to make it out to be. It was an incredible first half, but as good as it was, Bama was almost equally as shitty in the second half. Since then, I would argue we've seen Georgia exposed as a fraud. The Florida game was obviously an emasculation. But we've seen other chinks in the Georgia armor: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, South Carolina. I defy you to show me a dominating victory on Georgia's schedule. Like the other "big" win for Bama (Clemson), Georgia is not who we thought they were before the season.

This post isn't only about Bama though, even though I firmly believe that the Red Raiders should be #1. It's about breaking the S-E-C! meme. Let's take a look first at the LVSC rankings. There are four SEC teams in the top 12, but then none the rest of the way. Most years, people claim the reason the conference is so good is its top to bottom strength. Certainly not the case this year.

In other computer polls, the SEC ranks third in the Sagarin Ratings, third in the Massey Ratings, and third in the Anderson-Hester rankings. Clearly not the top to bottom threat we've been told about year in and year out.

One of the major problems in evaluating the SEC is their complete garbage non-conference schedules, at least amongst the big boys. Only Georgia has had a difficult non-conference game, playing at Arizona State (another team that was overrated at the beginning of the season). Other minor non-conference games include Florida over Miami, West Virginia over Auburn, and Texas thumping Arkansas. Yet, we are supposed to accept on principle that the SEC is the best conference because they are the SEC.

Since this is a gambling blog, some deference should be given to Vegas. This week we have an opportunity to see how Vegas thinks the top teams in the Big Ten and SEC rank against the dregs of their conferences. Penn State plays Indiana (#100 in Sagarin) at home and Alabama plays Mississippi State (#101 in Sagarin) also at home. Penn State goes in as a 36 point favorite, while Alabama is only a 20.5 point favorite. It seems there might be a discrepancy here.

Or, we can look at the middle of the conferences. Ohio State is taking on Illinois (#51 Sagarin) this week in Champaign and is a 9.5 point favorite. On the other hand, Georgia is taking on Auburn (#73 Sagarin) on the Plains and is only an 8.5 point favorite. I've been ridiculed in some circles for suggesting the Ohio State is a better team than Georgia, but it appears that the oddsmakers agree with me.

My overall position is that if you aren't the Big XII South, you have no reason to beat your conference's chest. Yes, the way it has played out, the Big XII champ should play the SEC champ in the MNC game (barring anything unforseen), but it's not because the SEC is a great conference, it's because Alabama and Florida are good teams who managed to get through their schedules mostly unscathed.

From a gambling perspective, betting on anti-public SEC dogs, or even better, anti-public non-conference dogs who are playing SEC teams (helllllllo, Troy!) could be a profitable contrarian strategy for the few remaining weeks in the season.

Leans - Week 11

Obviously, I passed the Redhawks.

Strong Leans

L'ville +3 vs. Cincy (Fri.)
Zona +3.5 @ Ore
UL-Monroe +20.5 @ Ole Miss
Troy + 19 @ LSU - I had this one pegged before I saw the line
KU +13.5 vs. Texas
Auburn +8 vs. UGa
Wash +7.5 vs. UCLA
AFA +5.5 vs. BYU

KC +5.5 vs. NO
SD +4.5 @ PIT
SEA +3 vs. ARZ

Moderate Leans

Wyo +7 @ UNLV (Thu.)
Utah State +12.5 @ LaTech
NM State +16 @ Fresno - Rest of the season fade?
Ill +9.5 vs. tOSU
Cuse +9.5 vs. UConn
Navy +3.5 vs. ND

BAL +6.5 @ NYG
CIN +9.5 @ PHL

Weak Leans

UAB +5 @ Tulane
Rutgers +7.5 @ USF
SDSU +28.5 vs. Utah
NCSU +4 vs. Wake
UMd +2.5 vs. UNC

STL +6 @ SF

Review of Week 10

Before 5pm Saturday: 6-2-1
After 5pm Saturday: 2-7 and Penn State has no chance at the MNC

Solid.

On another note, as I suspected as soon as I decided to start flat betting, my records, while still negative, would be better if I was betting the proper units. I'm not sure if I should go back to unit betting or not. Thoughts are welcome in the comments.

Maryland +3 @ Virginia Tech (2)

Darius Heyward-Bey gave me hope for a cover in the 3rd quarter. Of course, when you bet on shitty teams, you rarely get backdoor covers.

Nevada -2.5 @ Fresno State (5)

I had thought the public would have learned their lesson last week about Fresno State. The Wolf Pack were such an obvious play.

Western Michigan +7.5 vs. Illinois (4)

It was a little surprising that I was the only one out of my contrarian friends to be on this game. I guess maybe it was one of those games that people wanted to play.

Kentucky +13 vs. Georgia (2)

My previous comment about backdoor covers is rescinded.

Purdue +9.5 @ Michigan State (2)

Purdue is coming awful close to the DNP list.

Utah State +35 @ Boise State (2)

Watching this game flash by on the ESPN ticker at the bar was excruciating.

Iowa State +9.5 @ Colorado (3)

Why was Colorado favored by so much here? I mean, both squads suck.

Nebraska -1.5 vs. Kansas (3)

In hindsight, I should have played this for a 5. The Jayhawks were one of the teams that I have had marked as a fade since the beginning of the season.

Baylor +27.5 @ Texas (3)

Miraculous cover by the Bears here. Baylor is looking like one of those contrarian looks every week at this point. The difference between their public perception and how good they actually are is pretty large.

Western Kentucky +17 @ Troy (3)

At the bar for this one. Surprisingly, a Sun Belt tilt didn't make it on any of the TVs.

Clemson +3.5 @ Florida State (5)

The spread on this game dropped from 7 early in the week to 3.5. In the end, it didn't matter, but Jonny and ML are starting to question the auto-play on these sort of games. It should spark some interesting discussion at the very least.

Cincinnati +7 @ West Virginia (4)

The 'Natti did everything they could to blow this game. Fortunately, Bill Stewart is not a good football coach.

LSU +3 vs. Alabama (3)

You really can't ask for more when fading the #1 team with a squad that had 50 hung on them two out of the previous three weeks.

Washington +14 vs. Arizona State (4)

That Husky defense sure was stout in the 4th quarter.

Houston -2.5 vs. Baltimore (2)

Not. Even. Close.

Oakland +9.5 vs. San Diego (4)

For chrissakes:

3rd-7, OAK44 4:26 M. Tuiasosopo sacked by J. Peppers. M. Tuiasosopo fumbled. K. Harris recovered fumble
4th-16, OAK35 3:34 S. Lechler punt. M. Jones returned punt for 55 yards

It's almost like half the Raider team is betting against themselves.

San Diego -15 vs. Kansas City (3)

Nice of Marmalard to throw two red zone picks here.

Philadelphia -3 vs. New York Giants (2)

I went to bed last night when it was 24-20 Birds and had no expectation of the Eagles actually covering. Good call.

Sunday 11/9

I am still heartbroken.

I'm not as impressed with today's card as some people are, so it appears I'll be on fewer games. I'm sure this will be the week that marginal plays go 3-0.

Earlies

Houston -2.5 -105 (2)

Late Games

San Diego -14.5 -101 (3)
Oakland +9.5 -103 (4)

UPDATE: Un-fucking-believable. At least Oakland tried to cover the number. My sports life has turned undeniably sour since about 5pm yesterday afternoon. Fuck.

Nightcap

Philadelphia -3 -102 (2)

I'm really sick of betting on games involving this Eagles team. No doubt Andy Reid will kick a field goal when he should go for a touchdown to blow the cover. Good luck.

Same old story, same old song and dance

I heard that song on my way home from the bar. How apropos. Penn State can't win an important game on the road. Tell me where I have heard this before. Love this Iowa Hawkeye team, too. Makes me have warm, fuzzy feelings inside.

You know what DC, for all your talk about how you wanted to be the next MRob, Mrob would not have overthrown a big pass for an INT late in the game. But, hey, at least you aren't Anthony Morelli.

Defensively, Josh Hull, I don't know really know what to say to you. You are a great story, walking on and now starting for Penn State. But, let's be honest, you are not a Big Ten linebacker. Never was, never could.

By the way, I wish I was wrong about these sort of things once in a while:

Contrarianism: But, realistically, I would be predicting a huge Penn State victory on Saturday if the line opened at something remotely honest. Instead, Vegas decides to open the line at 7 and has only moved it to 7.5, practically begging you to bet on the Nittany Lions. This game is very reminiscent, at least from a betting perspective, of last year's Penn State-Illinois game, where Penn State got upset 27-20 in Champaign.

At least everyone won who had Iowa tonight. Good hit everyone. Me and Mr. Daniels have a date for later. Good luck on the nightcaps.

Saturday 11/8

This is going to be a hectic start to the day, but the afternoon and late games aren't spectacular.

Earlies (12p-3:30p)

Baylor +27.5 -111 (3)
Utah State +35 -103 (2)
Purdue +9.5 -106 (2)
Iowa State +9.5 +105 (3)
Kentucky +13 -102 (2)
Western Michigan +7.5 -105 (4)
Nebraska -1.5 -102 (3)

Passes: L'Ville, NW, Arky

Calling an audible and going to watch PSU at the bar. Here are the rest of today's plays:

Late Games (3:30p-11:59p)

Western Kentucky +17 -107 (3)
Clemson +3.5 -104 (5)
Cincinnati +7 -108 (4)
LSU +3 +109 (3)
Washington +14 -103 (4)

Passes: Colo St, Okla St, Stan

Good luck today. Hopefully, Penn State will still be undefeated when I get home.

Friday 11/7

Another weeknight auto-play. I guess people haven't realized yet that Fresno State is worthless. Also, here is another example of a game that I could have had a much better number with had I placed my bet earlier in the week (+2.5).

Nevada -2.5 -103 (5)

Good luck.

Jonny over at Sports Investments has a sizable stake in the Nittany Lions winning the MNC. Here is solid objective reasoning as to why PSU fans should be worried Saturday.

Leans - Week 10, Part 2

As I mentioned previously, this is going to be a high volume week. Great.

Strong Leans

Nev -1.5 (Fri.)
W Kent +16.5
Purdue +10
Clem +4
Ok St +3
Cincy +7
LSU +3
NW +10.5
W Mich +7
Neb -1.5
Wash +14.5

PHL -3
HOU +1
SD -15

Moderate Leans

Baylor +28
Utah St +35
Stanford +14
L'ville +6
Iowa St +10
Kentucky +10

OAK +9.5
MIN -1
NYJ -9

Thursday 11/7

Leans will be up later tonight.

Maryland +3 -103 (2)

No opinion on the other two games tonight, really. Good luck.

The Busting of the BCS

It certainly appears that this is the week that Vegas had circled as the week the BCS goes to complete hell. All three major conference, undefeated teams are going to be incredibly public this week and the bookmakers don't seem to be in any hurry to adjust the lines. I would wager a few units that straight up at least one of these teams go down, and would probably take +300 odds that at least two do. Let's take a closer look at the games.

#9 Oklahoma State (8-1) @ #2 Texas Tech (9-0)

Football reasoning: Simple. The Cowboys are the only team in the Big XII conference to play some semblance of defense. The Pokes are the only team to keep Texas under 30 (though most likely a statistically insignificant 28). They have the highest rated team defense in the Big XII at Number 39 nationally.

Also, and this may be square logic, but isn't it possible that Texas Tech put together its first complete game against a big name opponent on its biggest ever stage? Here are some other scores this season from the Red Raiders: 35-19 over Nevada, 37-31 (OT) against Nebraska, 43-25 over Texas A&M. Wins, yes, but not the kind that impress the oddsmakers.

Contrarianism: As such, the Red Raiders opened up as only three point favorites, which seems a bit odd since they just beat the near-unanimous #1 team on the same field by six.

#1 Alabama (9-0) @ #16 LSU (6-2)

Football reasoning: Let's be honest, LSU has looked like hell it's last three games, getting half a hundred hung on them by the Gators in the Swamp and at home against Georgia then following those up by letting Tulane hang around for a while before pulling away. [EDIT: I spent an hour looking up facts about all of these teams and I miss the game time? Pretty clear why there is so much red to the right. Thanks, anon.]

Also, what has Alabama actually done this year? Yes, they went between the hedges and thumped Georgia for a half. What did that score end up? 41-30. Not quite the blowout everyone makes it out to be. Other than that, the Tide have played an absolute garbage schedule, not unlike Texas Tech and Penn State. And in that garbage schedule, the Tide have only managed to end up 61st nationally in total offense.

Contrarianism: LSU opened as a three point dog and that is where the line sits currently. Alabama is not getting hammered, but certainly is the more public side. The same logic from above applies: shouldn't the #1 team in the country be giving a bit more than three points to the #16 team?

#3 Penn State (9-0) @ Iowa (5-4)

Football reasoning: It could be argued that Penn State is the most complete team in the country, ranking 11th in total offense and 6th in total defense. But, like the pretenders above them, who have they played? Obviously, there was the night game at tOSU, which appears to have excited no one outside of Pennsylvania. Also, Penn State wiped the floor with the team that is currently sitting atop the Pac Ten standings. Everything else on the Penn State schedule is worthless.

Iowa, however, is an interesting team. While only sitting with a 2-3 conference record, their four losses are by a combined 12 points. Shonn Greene is 3rd in the nation in rushing and Ricky Stanzi is a decent passer by Big Ten standards.

Contrarianism: But, realistically, I would be predicting a huge Penn State victory on Saturday if the line opened at something remotely honest. Instead, Vegas decides to open the line at 7 and has only moved it to 7.5, practically begging you to bet on the Nittany Lions. This game is very reminiscent, at least from a betting perspective, of last year's Penn State-Illinois game, where Penn State got upset 27-20 in Champaign. Finally, I'll leave you with a quote from the blogfather (who also happens to be an Iowa alum), Moneyline:

Iowa is going to fuck Penn St in their stupid asses.

Well said, sir.

Leans - Week 10

This week is looking real juicy. Time to fade all of the undefeated BCS teams. I'll elaborate on this tomorrow. Plus, there are a lot of lines that look appealing to me from a football perspective and are contrarian. These weeks always get out of hand.

Strong Leans

UMd +3.5 @ VT (Thu.)
Nevada +2.5 @ Fresno St (Fri.)
Utah St +32.5 @ Boise St
Purdue +9.5 @ Sparty
Okla St +3 @ Texas Tech
LSU +3.5 vs. Bama
NW +11 vs. tOSU
Kentucky +10 vs. UGa
W Michigan +7 vs. Illinois
Nebraska +1.5 vs. K-State

PHL -3 vs. NYG
HOU +1 vs. BAL

Moderate Leans

Baylor +25.5 @ Texas
Stanford +13 @ Oregon
L'ville +6 @ Pitt
Cincy +7.5 @ WVU
ECU -8.5 vs. Marshall
Washington +14.5 vs. Ariz St

OAK +9.5 vs. CAR
MIN -1 vs. GB
NYJ -9 vs. STL

Weak Leans

W Kent +18 @ Troy
Clemson +6 @ FSU
Colo St +10 @ AFA
Iowa St +10 @ Colorado

CHI +3 vs. TEN

Monday 11/3

I don't particularly like this play.

Washington -3 +120 (2)

Good luck.

Review of Week 9

Cincinnati +2.5 vs. USF (2)

Boring game, but at least a little kid got to hit on Erin Andrews after getting run over.

Wisconsin +5.5 @ Michigan State (3)

If I was Barry Alvarez, I would have called down and fired Bret Bielema immediately with twelve seconds left in the game.

UConn +3.5 vs. West Virginia (2)

I have no idea what Randy Edsall said at halftime, but it must have been inspiring.

Baylor +21 vs. Missouri (3)

Missouri is not who we thought they were. The Big XII Championship Game is going to be a repeat of 2005.

Utah State +6 vs. Hawaii (2)

I'm not even sure how the Aggies ended up anti-public here. Hawaii is terrible.

Arkansas State +23.5 @ Alabama (4)

Fade #1 against Alabama: Fail. Fade #2 against Alabama with LSU: Pending.

Louisiana Tech +4.5 vs. Fresno State (2)

I guess the public has figured out that Fresno isn't very good.

Temple +7 @ Navy (5)

I am quite glad that NCAA rules don't let teams go for the extra point when it is pointless in overtime. By the way, Al, you are allowed to take a knee when running out the clock.

Clemson +3 @ Boston College (2)

Clemson looked like they were going to try to give the game away. I am fortunate to come away with a victory here.

Iowa State +30 @ Oklahoma State (2)

I forgot the Pokes were the one team in the Big XII that plays defense.

UL Monroe +10 vs. Troy (2)

Continually updating Yahoo Gamecast at 9pm on a Saturday night is not a way to make friends.

New Mexico +7 vs. Utah (2)

With TCU coming up, this was a classic let down spot for the Utes.

Tennessee +5.5 @ South Carolina (2)

Tenny has played the elite of the SEC so far. Now they are on the back end of their schedule. Is it possible they are a bit better than that 3-5 record suggests?

-Me, last Tuesday.

Um, no.

St. Louis +3 vs. Arizona (2)

I went to grab some lunch around 2:30p on Sunday. When I left, it was 7-0 Rams. By the time I got home, it was 17-7 Buzzsaw and they never looked back.

Seattle +6.5 vs. Philadelphia (3)

Seattle scored a 90 yard touchdown on their first play from scrimmage. They racked up 143 the rest of the way.

Oakland +2.5 vs. Atlanta (2)

Which is still better than the 77 yards Oakland put up the entire game. Also amusing: Oakland TOP - 14:45.

Miami +3 @ Denver (2)

Miami should be in the ACC as schizophrenic as they are.

Sunday 11/2

Not much going on in the early games today, but it looks like I will be playing every 4pm game.

UPDATE: The Giants are still a decent look in my mind, but they have a little too much backing. Also, SIA numbers are closer than Wagerline, which leads me to believe that the average square is split on this one.

Earlies

St. Louis +3 +102 (2)

Passes: None

Afternooners

Seattle +6.5 +109 (3)
Oakland +2.5 +108 (2)
Miami +4 +104 (2)

Passes: Giants

Late Games

Passes: UCF, Indy

I changed my mind about both of these plays. Good luck if you decide to go ahead with them.

Saturday 11/1

There is really only 5 weeks of college football left. On one hand, that is depressing. On the other, at least it will keep me from wasting money.

Earlies (12p-3:29p)

Arkansas State +23.5 -105 (4)
Wisconsin +5.5 -103 (3)
Baylor +21 +100 (3)
LaTech +5 -108 (2)
UConn +3.5 -103 (2)
Utah State +6 -108 (2)

Passes: NW, CMU, Army

Afternooners (3:30p-6:59p)

Temple +7 +116 (5)
Iowa State +30 -104 (2)
Clemson +3 -102 (2)

Passes: Duke, Iowa, Idaho

Nightcaps (7p-11:59p)

UL Monroe +10 -106 (2)
New Mexico +7.5 -110 (2)
Tennessee +5.5 +107 (2)

Passes: Nebraska, Ariz St

Back tomorrow with the NFL. Good luck tonight.