Strong Leans
Temple +6.5
Ark St +22
Clem +4
Wisky +4.5
Tenny +6
Baylor +20
MIA +3
OAK +3
NYG -9.5
Moderate Leans
Duke +8
Ariz St +15
NW +7
Iowa +2.5
CMU +2
ULM +10
LaTech +5
Utah St +6.5
UCF +3.5 (Sun.)
SEA +7
STL +3
Thursday 10/31
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 10,
plays
This is another one of those weekday auto-plays. South Florida is slightly overrated due to being the preseason Big East favorite and Cincinnati seems to perennially fly under the radar.
Cincinnati +2.5 -103 (2)
I could have had this at 3 on Tuesday. Hopefully, it doesn't come down to a field goal at the end.
Cincinnati +2.5 -103 (2)
I could have had this at 3 on Tuesday. Hopefully, it doesn't come down to a field goal at the end.
Another Moment of Reflection
,
Labels:
contrarianism,
fiscal responsibility,
leans
Looks like the last time we looked at this, I was still dealing in the realm of small sample size. This isn't really unexpected, since I couldn't believe I would be making poorer decisions with more information. Relevant stats below:
NCAAF Weeks 6-9 Actual: 22-25-1 -9.44x
NCAAF Weeks 6-9 S+M Leans: 32-32-1 -5.40x
NCAAF S+M Leans Total: 51-51-2 +5.12x
NCAAF Weeks 6-9 Strong Leans: 11-12 -6.40x
NCAAF Strong Leans Total: 30-21 +24.2x
NFL Weeks 5-8 Actual: 13-8 +2.89x
NFL Weeks 5-8 S+M Leans: 12-10-3 -1.5x
NFL S+M Leans Total: 24-22-3 +7.0x
NFL Weeks 5-8 Strong Leans: 5-7-1 -9.2x
NFL Strong Leans Total: 13-11-1 +6.0x
So, overall, I would still be doing much better for the season if I had stuck with my leans, but I think the results from the last few weeks show that it is not a demonstrably better strategy. Of course, I am going to keep looking at this for the rest of the season to attempt to get better. Expect the next update at the close of the college football regular season.
NCAAF Weeks 6-9 Actual: 22-25-1 -9.44x
NCAAF Weeks 6-9 S+M Leans: 32-32-1 -5.40x
NCAAF S+M Leans Total: 51-51-2 +5.12x
NCAAF Weeks 6-9 Strong Leans: 11-12 -6.40x
NCAAF Strong Leans Total: 30-21 +24.2x
NFL Weeks 5-8 Actual: 13-8 +2.89x
NFL Weeks 5-8 S+M Leans: 12-10-3 -1.5x
NFL S+M Leans Total: 24-22-3 +7.0x
NFL Weeks 5-8 Strong Leans: 5-7-1 -9.2x
NFL Strong Leans Total: 13-11-1 +6.0x
So, overall, I would still be doing much better for the season if I had stuck with my leans, but I think the results from the last few weeks show that it is not a demonstrably better strategy. Of course, I am going to keep looking at this for the rest of the season to attempt to get better. Expect the next update at the close of the college football regular season.
Posting Schedule
,
Labels:
errata
Sorry for not putting the normal Wednesday-type post yesterday. Personal things came up. The schedule for tonight's posts:
A look at how leans would be doing - Part 2 - 7:00p
Tonight's play on the Cincy/USF game - 7:30p
Leans - Week 9, Part 2 - 9p
A look at how leans would be doing - Part 2 - 7:00p
Tonight's play on the Cincy/USF game - 7:30p
Leans - Week 9, Part 2 - 9p
Leans - Week 9
,
Labels:
leans,
ncaaf week 10,
nfl week 9
There a lot of strange lines out there this week. These are my least favorite weeks as a gambler, when there are a lot of shitty road dogs that I am almost going to be forced to take. Just look at the strong leans list and try not to vomit.
Strong Leans
Cincy +3 vs. USF (Thu.)
This makes sense. USF is still riding preseason Big East favorite public momentum here.
Temple +7 @ Navy
Navy won by a blow out last week. Again, this makes some sense.
Ark St +22.5 @ Bama
This one is so ugly, I can't wait to play it. It opened at 24.
Clemson +4.5 @ BC
Back on the Dabo train? I really don't want to do this.
Wisky +4.5 @ MSU
Vegas obviously has no respect for Sparty and thinks Wisky is better than their loss to scUM would suggest.
NW +6.5 @ Minny
I called this without even knowing who Minny was playing this week.
Iowa +2.5 @ Illinois
I'm going to get Zooked here.
LaTech +4.5 vs. Fresno
Apparently, people haven't caught on that Fresno isn't nearly as good as they were advertised heading into the year.
MIA +3 @ DEN
Here we go again backing the Dolphins.
OAK +3 vs. ATL
Atlanta has appeared to be schizophrenic depending on whether they are home or away. Not as nauseous as initially thought.
NYG -9.5 vs. DAL
That line is waaaaaay too high for a team as well-regarded as the Cowboys.
Moderate Leans
Duke +7.5 @ Wake
Why is Wake public on Wagerline? These teams have identical records and Wake is reeling. This game doesn't pass the sniff test. I am guessing this ends up off my list on Saturday.
Az State +14.5 @ Oregon St
Ugly.
Tenny +6 @ S Carolina
Tenny has played the elite of the SEC so far. Now they are on the back end of their schedule. Is it possible they are a bit better than that 3-5 record suggests?
Baylor +20 vs. Mizzou
I'm getting tired of riding the Baylor train.
UL-Monroe +10 vs. Troy
Troy is always the most public Sun Belt team because they play high profile teams tough. But, it's not like their league record is outstanding or anything.
GB +5.5 @ TEN
The books are clearly not impressed by the last undefeated team in the league.
SEA +7 vs. PHI
West coast team going to the Eastern Time Zone alert!!
MIN -4.5 vs. HOU
The Texans have been playing well recently against shitty competition. I guess the public noticed.
Weak Leans
Nebraska +22 @ OU
Iowa St +30.5 @ Okie St
I'm intrigued by these two games because defense is hard to come by in the Big 12. Could the Huskers or Clones score enough to cover? For that reason, they seem a little bait-ish to me.
CMU +2.5 @ Indy
Indy coming off a big win against NW playing an underachieving Chip squad.
Idaho +16.5 vs. SJSU
Falls under teams I don't know much about (even after watching SJSU get whacked by Boise Friday night).
UConn +4 vs. WVU
I have a tough time believing WVU is going to be that public in this game.
Utah St +7 vs. Hawaii
Again, is Hawaii really going to be that public in this spot?
STL +3 vs. ARZ
Purely based on Wagerline numbers. I don't like it.
CIN +9 vs. JAX
Did you see what Houston did to the Bengals? Obviously, Jax will cover by 2 touchdowns.
Strong Leans
Cincy +3 vs. USF (Thu.)
This makes sense. USF is still riding preseason Big East favorite public momentum here.
Temple +7 @ Navy
Navy won by a blow out last week. Again, this makes some sense.
Ark St +22.5 @ Bama
This one is so ugly, I can't wait to play it. It opened at 24.
Clemson +4.5 @ BC
Back on the Dabo train? I really don't want to do this.
Wisky +4.5 @ MSU
Vegas obviously has no respect for Sparty and thinks Wisky is better than their loss to scUM would suggest.
NW +6.5 @ Minny
I called this without even knowing who Minny was playing this week.
Iowa +2.5 @ Illinois
I'm going to get Zooked here.
LaTech +4.5 vs. Fresno
Apparently, people haven't caught on that Fresno isn't nearly as good as they were advertised heading into the year.
MIA +3 @ DEN
Here we go again backing the Dolphins.
OAK +3 vs. ATL
Atlanta has appeared to be schizophrenic depending on whether they are home or away. Not as nauseous as initially thought.
NYG -9.5 vs. DAL
That line is waaaaaay too high for a team as well-regarded as the Cowboys.
Moderate Leans
Duke +7.5 @ Wake
Why is Wake public on Wagerline? These teams have identical records and Wake is reeling. This game doesn't pass the sniff test. I am guessing this ends up off my list on Saturday.
Az State +14.5 @ Oregon St
Ugly.
Tenny +6 @ S Carolina
Tenny has played the elite of the SEC so far. Now they are on the back end of their schedule. Is it possible they are a bit better than that 3-5 record suggests?
Baylor +20 vs. Mizzou
I'm getting tired of riding the Baylor train.
UL-Monroe +10 vs. Troy
Troy is always the most public Sun Belt team because they play high profile teams tough. But, it's not like their league record is outstanding or anything.
GB +5.5 @ TEN
The books are clearly not impressed by the last undefeated team in the league.
SEA +7 vs. PHI
West coast team going to the Eastern Time Zone alert!!
MIN -4.5 vs. HOU
The Texans have been playing well recently against shitty competition. I guess the public noticed.
Weak Leans
Nebraska +22 @ OU
Iowa St +30.5 @ Okie St
I'm intrigued by these two games because defense is hard to come by in the Big 12. Could the Huskers or Clones score enough to cover? For that reason, they seem a little bait-ish to me.
CMU +2.5 @ Indy
Indy coming off a big win against NW playing an underachieving Chip squad.
Idaho +16.5 vs. SJSU
Falls under teams I don't know much about (even after watching SJSU get whacked by Boise Friday night).
UConn +4 vs. WVU
I have a tough time believing WVU is going to be that public in this game.
Utah St +7 vs. Hawaii
Again, is Hawaii really going to be that public in this spot?
STL +3 vs. ARZ
Purely based on Wagerline numbers. I don't like it.
CIN +9 vs. JAX
Did you see what Houston did to the Bengals? Obviously, Jax will cover by 2 touchdowns.
Tuesday 10/28
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 10,
plays
Passing the Thundering Herd. I can't tell if I would play this on a Saturday or not. Probably not, because I know nothing of either team and I've been trying to avoid those games on Saturdays.
This strategy was profitable last football season, but it seems like these weekday contrarian plays have been hitting at a higher frequency this year. Unfortunately, I don't have the data to prove it and given my record, I don't feel like jeopardizing more units on teams I know nothing about. Good luck if you take Marshall.
This strategy was profitable last football season, but it seems like these weekday contrarian plays have been hitting at a higher frequency this year. Unfortunately, I don't have the data to prove it and given my record, I don't feel like jeopardizing more units on teams I know nothing about. Good luck if you take Marshall.
Review of Week 8
,
Labels:
in review,
ncaaf week 9,
nfl week 8
What an amazing NFL Week. I'm not sure I've ever gone undefeated in a day in a sport where I've played at least 5 games. So, yay, I guess. On the other side of the coin, college football continues to be a complete money sink.
West Virginia -3 vs. Auburn (3)
New Mexico +5 @ Air Force (2)
At 8:30p on Thursday night, I thought for sure the outcomes of these games would be flipped.
San Jose State +7 vs. Boise State (4)
The game was never in doubt, but it was the right play. Boise was moderately public and the line moved toward them.
Wake Forest +2.5 @ MiamiU (2)
Wake jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the first. Then I took a hungover nap and saw they didn't score again. I'm not sure anyone can handicap the ACC.
Indiana +8.5 vs. Northwestern (3)
Last week, fade Northwestern. This week, fade Minnesota.
Duke +10 vs. Vanderbilt (2)
Do you think Ole Miss regrets firing David Cutcliffe? Duke has now won more games this year than the previous three combined. Which probably makes them another team to fade this week.
Baylor +13 @ Nebraska (4)
The Bears did everything in their power to blow the game. For as shitty as my record is this year, I sure have been on the right side of a lot hooks. It truly could be a lot worse.
Utah State +15 vs. Fresno State (2)
I was feeling pretty good at 5:30p Saturday afternoon. I was sitting at 4-1 for the afternoon.
SMU +12 @ Navy (2)
Sure, the Meth was bad.
Rutgers +9.5 vs. Pitt (2)
But, Rutgers was blowing out Pitt.
Michigan +3.5 vs. Michigan State (4)
And Michigan was up a touchdown on Sparty. Then Sparty took over and the evening plays were doomed.
Tennessee +5 vs. Alabama (3)
Washington +11 vs. Notre Dame (2)
Arizona State +3.5 vs. Oregon (4)
At least there was no suspense here. Blowouts that were over by the first quarter.
Arizona +15 vs. USC (2)
Arizona is a decent football squad. I think enough people missed this game that there is probably still some value in the Wildcats.
Central Florida +23.5 @ Tulsa (2)
Halftime Score: UCF 19 Tulsa 14
Final Score: Tulsa 49 UCF 19
By the way, I called the final when it was still 21-19. Prescient.
Miami -1 vs. Buffalo (5)
Buffalo was 5-1 and entering the game and getting a point. It doesn't get more obvious than this in the NFL. I'm just surprised that the Dolphins won.
Philadelphia -9.5 vs. Atlanta (2)
Andy Reid likes pissing me off. First, kicking the FG in San Francisco two weeks ago when he clearly should have gone for it to blow my Niners cover. Then, doing it again against Atlanta this week. Fortunately, Brian Westbrook ran for a fluke touchdown after a bullshit call on a punt that went against the Falcons. The gambling gods still owe me about six times over this season.
Arizona +5 @ Carolina (2)
Here we are again with another win by a point. It really amazes me that I feel like such hell about this season considering all of the close wins I have.
Houston -9.5 vs. Cincinnati (2)
I've got no problem wagering against the Bengals when they keep trotting out Ryan Fitzpatrick week after week. Of course, everyone else will have caught on to that this week.
Seattle +5 @ San Francisco (4)
Replace Bengals with 49ers and Ryan Fitzpatrick with JT O'Sullivan. Everything else still applies from above.
West Virginia -3 vs. Auburn (3)
New Mexico +5 @ Air Force (2)
At 8:30p on Thursday night, I thought for sure the outcomes of these games would be flipped.
San Jose State +7 vs. Boise State (4)
The game was never in doubt, but it was the right play. Boise was moderately public and the line moved toward them.
Wake Forest +2.5 @ MiamiU (2)
Wake jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the first. Then I took a hungover nap and saw they didn't score again. I'm not sure anyone can handicap the ACC.
Indiana +8.5 vs. Northwestern (3)
Last week, fade Northwestern. This week, fade Minnesota.
Duke +10 vs. Vanderbilt (2)
Do you think Ole Miss regrets firing David Cutcliffe? Duke has now won more games this year than the previous three combined. Which probably makes them another team to fade this week.
Baylor +13 @ Nebraska (4)
The Bears did everything in their power to blow the game. For as shitty as my record is this year, I sure have been on the right side of a lot hooks. It truly could be a lot worse.
Utah State +15 vs. Fresno State (2)
I was feeling pretty good at 5:30p Saturday afternoon. I was sitting at 4-1 for the afternoon.
SMU +12 @ Navy (2)
Sure, the Meth was bad.
Rutgers +9.5 vs. Pitt (2)
But, Rutgers was blowing out Pitt.
Michigan +3.5 vs. Michigan State (4)
And Michigan was up a touchdown on Sparty. Then Sparty took over and the evening plays were doomed.
Tennessee +5 vs. Alabama (3)
Washington +11 vs. Notre Dame (2)
Arizona State +3.5 vs. Oregon (4)
At least there was no suspense here. Blowouts that were over by the first quarter.
Arizona +15 vs. USC (2)
Arizona is a decent football squad. I think enough people missed this game that there is probably still some value in the Wildcats.
Central Florida +23.5 @ Tulsa (2)
Halftime Score: UCF 19 Tulsa 14
Final Score: Tulsa 49 UCF 19
By the way, I called the final when it was still 21-19. Prescient.
Miami -1 vs. Buffalo (5)
Buffalo was 5-1 and entering the game and getting a point. It doesn't get more obvious than this in the NFL. I'm just surprised that the Dolphins won.
Philadelphia -9.5 vs. Atlanta (2)
Andy Reid likes pissing me off. First, kicking the FG in San Francisco two weeks ago when he clearly should have gone for it to blow my Niners cover. Then, doing it again against Atlanta this week. Fortunately, Brian Westbrook ran for a fluke touchdown after a bullshit call on a punt that went against the Falcons. The gambling gods still owe me about six times over this season.
Arizona +5 @ Carolina (2)
Here we are again with another win by a point. It really amazes me that I feel like such hell about this season considering all of the close wins I have.
Houston -9.5 vs. Cincinnati (2)
I've got no problem wagering against the Bengals when they keep trotting out Ryan Fitzpatrick week after week. Of course, everyone else will have caught on to that this week.
Seattle +5 @ San Francisco (4)
Replace Bengals with 49ers and Ryan Fitzpatrick with JT O'Sullivan. Everything else still applies from above.
Sunday 10/26
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 9,
nfl week 8,
plays
Another solid 2 unit loss yesterday. I can't get any traction in college football this year.
Earlies
Miami -1 -101 (5)
Philadelphia -9.5 -102 (2)
Arizona +5 +104 (3)
Passes: Dallas, Detroit
Afternooners
Seattle +5 +106 (4)
Houston -9 +100 (2)
Passes: None
Nightcaps
Central Florida +23.5 +104 (2)
This ought to be over by halftime. Good luck.
Earlies
Miami -1 -101 (5)
Philadelphia -9.5 -102 (2)
Arizona +5 +104 (3)
Passes: Dallas, Detroit
Afternooners
Seattle +5 +106 (4)
Houston -9 +100 (2)
Passes: None
Nightcaps
Central Florida +23.5 +104 (2)
This ought to be over by halftime. Good luck.
Saturday 10/25
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 9,
plays
It sucks to start out the weekend 2x in the hole. I guess it could be worse.
Earlies (12p-3:29p)
Wake +2.5 +100 (2)
Indiana +8.5 -102 (3)
Duke +10 -107 (2)
Baylor +13 +106 (4)
Utah State +15 +104 (2)
Passes: Toledo, Kansas, UVa
Afternooners (3:30p-6:59p)
SMU +12 -102 (2)
Rutgers +9.5 -102 (2)
Michigan +3.5 -103 (4)
Passes: Louisville
Nightcaps (7p-11p)
Tennessee +5 -103 (3)
Washington +10 -102 (2)
Arizona State +3.5 -109 (4)
Arizona +15 -105 (2)
Passes: UL-Monroe
I'm going to get good and hammered for the game. Good luck tonight.
Earlies (12p-3:29p)
Wake +2.5 +100 (2)
Indiana +8.5 -102 (3)
Duke +10 -107 (2)
Baylor +13 +106 (4)
Utah State +15 +104 (2)
Passes: Toledo, Kansas, UVa
Afternooners (3:30p-6:59p)
SMU +12 -102 (2)
Rutgers +9.5 -102 (2)
Michigan +3.5 -103 (4)
Passes: Louisville
Nightcaps (7p-11p)
Tennessee +5 -103 (3)
Washington +10 -102 (2)
Arizona State +3.5 -109 (4)
Arizona +15 -105 (2)
Passes: UL-Monroe
I'm going to get good and hammered for the game. Good luck tonight.
Friday 10/24
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 9,
plays
This one is fairly academic.
San Jose State +7 +102 (4)
Like last night, there is an alternative price available. You can get +7.5 -112. In this case, the +102 is the better bet mathematically (fair price would be +7 +100). I have no doubt that selling the hook is going to bite me in the ass. Good luck tonight.
San Jose State +7 +102 (4)
Like last night, there is an alternative price available. You can get +7.5 -112. In this case, the +102 is the better bet mathematically (fair price would be +7 +100). I have no doubt that selling the hook is going to bite me in the ass. Good luck tonight.
Leans - Week 8, Part 2
,
Labels:
leans,
ncaaf week 9,
nfl week 8
Strong Leans
SJSU (Fri)
Rutgers
Duke
Baylor
Wake
Ariz St
Tenny
Indiana
Kansas
OAK
SEA
MIA
Moderate Leans
SMU
ULM
Zona
Toledo
Michigan
Utah St
K-State
STL
HOU
SJSU (Fri)
Rutgers
Duke
Baylor
Wake
Ariz St
Tenny
Indiana
Kansas
OAK
SEA
MIA
Moderate Leans
SMU
ULM
Zona
Toledo
Michigan
Utah St
K-State
STL
HOU
Thursday 10/23
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 9,
plays
Actually playing both games tonight. I was initially going to lay off the Toothless Wonders, but every Covers post is touting free money with Auburn tonight. Apparently, Mississippi State > West Virginia? Also, I could have had this game at -3.5 +102, and let's be honest, I'm usually a juice whore. However, the bets are mathematically equivalent and I just don't have that much confidence in Bill Stewart's offense.
For the other game, this is just a feel. Certainly, the consensus numbers are there, but something just seems... off about this line. I'm sure I'll be down a few cents in juice by the end of the night.
West Virginia -3 -112 (3)
New Mexico +5 -107 (2)
I'm going to type up the Leans post now, but I'll set the timestamp so it goes up at 9p tonight. Good luck.
For the other game, this is just a feel. Certainly, the consensus numbers are there, but something just seems... off about this line. I'm sure I'll be down a few cents in juice by the end of the night.
West Virginia -3 -112 (3)
New Mexico +5 -107 (2)
I'm going to type up the Leans post now, but I'll set the timestamp so it goes up at 9p tonight. Good luck.
Tuesday 10/21
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 9,
plays
Passing Temple. I really want to pull the trigger, but there is just too much Temple on the boards. I still think this number is short.
Leans - Week 8
,
Labels:
leans,
ncaaf week 9,
nfl week 8
I really didn't look that closely to start out. I'll give it a better review Thursday evening. This is mainly just Wagerline plus things that stand out. My initial reaction is there are a lot of lines to be exploited. Which of course means, I can chalk up another -25x weekend.
Strong Leans
Rutgers +9 @ Pitt
Baylor +10.5 @ Nebraska
Wake +3 @ Miami
Michigan +4.5 vs. Sparty
Arizona St +4 vs. Oregon
Tennessee +6.5 vs. Bama
Indiana +8 vs. NW
OAK +7 @ BAL
MIA +1 vs. BUF
Moderate Leans
New Mex +5 @ AFA (Thu.)
SJSU +7.5 vs. Boise St (Fri.)
SMU +12.5 @ Navy
Duke +10 @ Vandy
MTSU +10 @ Miss St
UL-Mon +2 vs. FAU
Zona +15.5 vs. USC - if this line was <2 TDs, it would be a strong lean
SEA +5 @ SF
STL +7 @ NE
HOU -9.5 vs. CIN
Weak Leans
Wash +11.5 vs. ND
Toledo +3.5 vs. CMU
UCF +23 @ Tulsa (Sun.)
CLE +7 @ JAX
We'll see how much this changes when I get into the lines further.
Strong Leans
Rutgers +9 @ Pitt
Baylor +10.5 @ Nebraska
Wake +3 @ Miami
Michigan +4.5 vs. Sparty
Arizona St +4 vs. Oregon
Tennessee +6.5 vs. Bama
Indiana +8 vs. NW
OAK +7 @ BAL
MIA +1 vs. BUF
Moderate Leans
New Mex +5 @ AFA (Thu.)
SJSU +7.5 vs. Boise St (Fri.)
SMU +12.5 @ Navy
Duke +10 @ Vandy
MTSU +10 @ Miss St
UL-Mon +2 vs. FAU
Zona +15.5 vs. USC - if this line was <2 TDs, it would be a strong lean
SEA +5 @ SF
STL +7 @ NE
HOU -9.5 vs. CIN
Weak Leans
Wash +11.5 vs. ND
Toledo +3.5 vs. CMU
UCF +23 @ Tulsa (Sun.)
CLE +7 @ JAX
We'll see how much this changes when I get into the lines further.
Belated Review of Week 7
,
Labels:
in review,
ncaaf week 8,
nfl week 7
Four biggest passes this week: Tennessee (NCAA), BC, Buffalo, Carolina. ATS: 4-0. That is some solid work there.
I realize I didn't post leans this weekend, so you can completely disregard the first paragraph if you want. Or call me an assclown in the comments. Either way.
TCU -2 vs. BYU (Thu.) (5)
This was the definition of a contrarian play. Totally overrated squad playing an underrated one at the underrated team's place. If you couldn't figure this one out by now, you should probably stop gambling. Or if your record is as bad as mine.
Rutgers -2.5 vs UConn (3)
You could have got Rutgers at a pk earlier in the week. This wasn't the only time I got bit by the hook this weekend.
Maryland ML vs. Wake (2)
So do I fade Maryland this weekend? I have no idea.
Clemson +2.5 vs. Georgia Tech (2)
Never trust a man named Dabo.
Iowa -4 vs. Wisconsin (2)
Bret Bielema can safely join Kirk Ferentz on the DO NOT WANT list after Joe retires/is fired.
Western Michigan -2 @ Central Michigan (2)
I bet this game because of the quirky line movement. Central was slightly public all week but the line swung heavily to the Broncos. Next time, I'll do my MAC homework because the movement was obviously due to LeFevour being out. Also, I spent 5 minutes looking for the name of this game, hoping to find something cool like Civil War or Apple Cup. I guess I shouldn't expect anything cool to ever come from the state of Michigan.
Georgia -16 vs. Vandy (2)
This wasn't on my radar all week and I accidentally put the wager in because everyone over at RMMB played it. Good job, hangover.
Iowa State +7 vs. Nebraska (2)
On the bright side, at least I got to watch Versus at 12pm with their ridiculously hot sideline reporter.
Duke +3 vs. Miami (2)
Basketball season is almost here. Then I can happily fade Duke on a bi-weekly basis.
USC -43 @ Wazzu (2)
I can't imagine I'll ever lay 43 points again. Then again, I can't imagine we'll ever see a major conference football team suck out loud like Wazzu.
Florida Int +10 @ Troy (2)
Yahoo! wasn't updating the Sun Belt games regularly. All I know is I should not have sold the hook.
South Carolina +2 vs. LSU (4)
I wonder if the refs were supposed to let LSU win?
Minnesota +3 @ Chicago (2)
Twenty-one special team points for Chicago. And Devin Hester was out. Also, Gus Freotte should probably run into another wall. He might play better.
Oakland +3 vs. Jets (4)
I was asked by a friend if I fade the Jets every week or it just seems that way. Hey, that's what happens when a mediocre team has Favraro at the helm. They are bound to be overrated.
Green Bay +1 vs. Indy (3)
Bill Simmons was probably smiling.
New England -3 vs. Denver (2)
Bill Simmons was probably giving JackO a reach around. (See that! A new and edgy Bill Simmons joke! I'll be at the top of the Alexa rankings in no time!)
I realize I didn't post leans this weekend, so you can completely disregard the first paragraph if you want. Or call me an assclown in the comments. Either way.
TCU -2 vs. BYU (Thu.) (5)
This was the definition of a contrarian play. Totally overrated squad playing an underrated one at the underrated team's place. If you couldn't figure this one out by now, you should probably stop gambling. Or if your record is as bad as mine.
Rutgers -2.5 vs UConn (3)
You could have got Rutgers at a pk earlier in the week. This wasn't the only time I got bit by the hook this weekend.
Maryland ML vs. Wake (2)
So do I fade Maryland this weekend? I have no idea.
Clemson +2.5 vs. Georgia Tech (2)
Never trust a man named Dabo.
Iowa -4 vs. Wisconsin (2)
Bret Bielema can safely join Kirk Ferentz on the DO NOT WANT list after Joe retires/is fired.
Western Michigan -2 @ Central Michigan (2)
I bet this game because of the quirky line movement. Central was slightly public all week but the line swung heavily to the Broncos. Next time, I'll do my MAC homework because the movement was obviously due to LeFevour being out. Also, I spent 5 minutes looking for the name of this game, hoping to find something cool like Civil War or Apple Cup. I guess I shouldn't expect anything cool to ever come from the state of Michigan.
Georgia -16 vs. Vandy (2)
This wasn't on my radar all week and I accidentally put the wager in because everyone over at RMMB played it. Good job, hangover.
Iowa State +7 vs. Nebraska (2)
On the bright side, at least I got to watch Versus at 12pm with their ridiculously hot sideline reporter.
Duke +3 vs. Miami (2)
Basketball season is almost here. Then I can happily fade Duke on a bi-weekly basis.
USC -43 @ Wazzu (2)
I can't imagine I'll ever lay 43 points again. Then again, I can't imagine we'll ever see a major conference football team suck out loud like Wazzu.
Florida Int +10 @ Troy (2)
Yahoo! wasn't updating the Sun Belt games regularly. All I know is I should not have sold the hook.
South Carolina +2 vs. LSU (4)
I wonder if the refs were supposed to let LSU win?
Minnesota +3 @ Chicago (2)
Twenty-one special team points for Chicago. And Devin Hester was out. Also, Gus Freotte should probably run into another wall. He might play better.
Oakland +3 vs. Jets (4)
I was asked by a friend if I fade the Jets every week or it just seems that way. Hey, that's what happens when a mediocre team has Favraro at the helm. They are bound to be overrated.
Green Bay +1 vs. Indy (3)
Bill Simmons was probably smiling.
New England -3 vs. Denver (2)
Bill Simmons was probably giving JackO a reach around. (See that! A new and edgy Bill Simmons joke! I'll be at the top of the Alexa rankings in no time!)
Healthy!
,
Labels:
nfl week 7,
plays
Or not. I stayed home from work today and I still don't feel up to thinking. You'll probably be getting three posts with forced, poorly worded humor tomorrow.
New England -3 +109 (2)
New England -3 +109 (2)
Sunday 10/19
,
Labels:
nfl week 7,
plays
I really don't want to look at my record from yesterday. It wasn't pretty. I'm sure I'll lose six more units this afternoon.
Oakland +3 +105 (4)
Green Bay +1 +104 (3)
Minnesota +3 +112 (2)
Oakland +3 +105 (4)
Green Bay +1 +104 (3)
Minnesota +3 +112 (2)
It's Just a Shame I Can't See This
,
Labels:
homerism
46-17
Then again, I am slightly bitter about the results of today's games. It should be interesting to see how I would have ended up under normal circumstances. I am guessing I would have ended up slightly better.
Saturday 10/18
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 8,
plays
These were obviously put in with a clear head. I have no idea how I put in this many plays.
Earlies
Rutgers -2.5 -105 (3)
Maryland ML +103 (2)
Clemson +2.5 +100 (2)
Iowa -4 -108 (3)
W Michigan -2 +102 (2)
Georgia -16 -103 (2)
Iowa St +7 -103 (4)
Afternooners
Duke +3 -103 (2)
USC -43 +102 (3)
Nightcaps
Florida Int +10 +127 (2)
South Carolina + -111 (4)
Earlies
Rutgers -2.5 -105 (3)
Maryland ML +103 (2)
Clemson +2.5 +100 (2)
Iowa -4 -108 (3)
W Michigan -2 +102 (2)
Georgia -16 -103 (2)
Iowa St +7 -103 (4)
Afternooners
Duke +3 -103 (2)
USC -43 +102 (3)
Nightcaps
Florida Int +10 +127 (2)
South Carolina + -111 (4)
Leans - Week 7, Part 2
,
Labels:
leans,
ncaaf week 8,
nfl week 7
I floated some action on the TCU money line at -110 this afternoon, but it didn't get it picked up. I am certainly not paying -130 juice to get more on the Toads.
Strong Leans
FIU +10
Iowa -3.5
W Mich -1.5
EDIT: I have no idea how I missed this - S Car +2.5
OAK +3
GB +1
NE -3
Moderate Leans
Iowa St +8
Rutgers +1
UMd +1.5
UVa +5.5
USC -42.5
Ind +15
Duke +3
BUF +1
MIN +3
Not sure how this is exactly going to down this weekend. I'm still not terribly impressed with the card. Good luck either way.
Strong Leans
FIU +10
Iowa -3.5
W Mich -1.5
EDIT: I have no idea how I missed this - S Car +2.5
OAK +3
GB +1
NE -3
Moderate Leans
Iowa St +8
Rutgers +1
UMd +1.5
UVa +5.5
USC -42.5
Ind +15
Duke +3
BUF +1
MIN +3
Not sure how this is exactly going to down this weekend. I'm still not terribly impressed with the card. Good luck either way.
Thursday 10/16
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 8,
plays
TCU -1 -107 (5)
I played this at Matchbook last night. Current odds are running TCU -2 and rising. If this had been played on Monday, you could have got it at TCU +2.5. I'm sure that won't matter tonight.
I'll be back with leans later.
I played this at Matchbook last night. Current odds are running TCU -2 and rising. If this had been played on Monday, you could have got it at TCU +2.5. I'm sure that won't matter tonight.
I'll be back with leans later.
A Week Off?
,
Labels:
fiscal responsibility
I'm officially taking next week off. I'll write about it Wednesday.-10/12/08
The reasons for me saying this were more than just my frustration with the NFL card on Sunday, though for sure that played a role. I thought I was going to be at Penn State this weekend. Last time I was there for a weekend, gambling was a giant pain in the ass, since I had to use other people's computers and I was constantly bugging people with iPhones for scores (I hope TheFiancee knows what I want for Christmas). So, I thought I would kill two birds with one stone and take this weekend off. Alas, I will be sitting here with the 6 TVs, which of course means I will indeed be gambling. There are worse ways to spend my Saturday afternoon.
There will be a small change to my wagering style for the foreseeable future. As you can see to your right in the breakdown sections, I have been absolutely horrible at pegging the games that I feel most confident about. I have no idea why. It's completely the opposite of any other season or sport I've gambled on. However, it's happened and I need to respond. From now on, I will be betting each game at 2x. I will still record, for blog purposes, how much I want to bet on the game, but each will be placed for 2x. Here is an example:
Penn State -24 -105 4x
Texas -7 -105 2x
Washington State +42 +100 3x
will now be recorded as:
Penn State -24 -105 (4)
Texas -7 -105 (2)
Washington State +42 +100 (3)
Now, let's say Penn State and Texas both cover, while USC blows out Wazzu. Along the right side, you'll see Week 8: 2-1 +2.0x, even though I won 3 imaginary units. Make sense? Sometimes gambling can be emotional instead of logical and I have reached that point in the 8th week this year. Good luck this weekend.
Leans - Week 7
,
Labels:
leans,
ncaaf week 8,
nfl week 7
Awful card this week. There's really not a whole lot else to say.
Strong Leans
TCU +1.5 vs. BYU (Thu.)
FIU +8 @ Troy
UMd +1.5 vs. Wake
Iowa -3.5 vs. Wisky
OAK +3 vs. NYJ
CAR -3 vs. NO
NE -3 vs. DEN (Mon.)
Moderate Leans
Iowa St +6.5 vs. Neb
Rutgers +1 vs. UConn
UDub +14 vs. Ore St
UVa +5.5 vs. UNC
GB +1 vs. IND
MIN +3 @ CHI
Weak Leans
Baylor 17 @ Okla St
Clemson -2 vs. GT
BC -2.5 vs. VoTech
K State +3 @ Colo - These assholes again...
KC +9 vs. TEN
BUF +1 vs. SD
Strong Leans
TCU +1.5 vs. BYU (Thu.)
FIU +8 @ Troy
UMd +1.5 vs. Wake
Iowa -3.5 vs. Wisky
OAK +3 vs. NYJ
CAR -3 vs. NO
NE -3 vs. DEN (Mon.)
Moderate Leans
Iowa St +6.5 vs. Neb
Rutgers +1 vs. UConn
UDub +14 vs. Ore St
UVa +5.5 vs. UNC
GB +1 vs. IND
MIN +3 @ CHI
Weak Leans
Baylor 17 @ Okla St
Clemson -2 vs. GT
BC -2.5 vs. VoTech
K State +3 @ Colo - These assholes again...
KC +9 vs. TEN
BUF +1 vs. SD
Review of Week 6
,
Labels:
in review,
ncaaf week 7,
nfl week 6
I am quite obviously a poor estimator of the strongest games.
Virginia +6 vs. East Carolina - 2x
Is Virginia getting its act together or were East Carolina's first two wins complete flukes? I'll go with the latter.
Mississippi State +1 vs. Vanderbilt - 3x
This was quite obviously a let down game for Vandy. I really should have bet this one for more.
Texas A&M vs. Kansas State - 2x
Kansas State still has an awful defense. It's just that aTm is teh awfulest.
Minnesota +11.5 @ Illinois - 2x
Guess which BigTen team other than the Buckeyes is 6-1? I'm disappointed the Gophers are off this week, because this would be a perfect time to fade them.
Tennessee +12.5 @ Georgia - 2x
Miraculously saved by a hook. Georgia is barely a Top 10 team at this point.
North Carolina -7.5 vs. Notre Dame - 2x
I wonder if this had been different if Tate doesn't get hurt on the first return. Either way, at least I don't have to hear about how Notre Dame is unranked this week.
Southern Mississippi +10 vs. Boise State - 5x
Total Yards - Broncos 350 Golden Eagles 278
Turnovers - Broncos 2 Golden Eagles 2
Fourth Down Conversions - Broncos 0-0 Golden Eagles 0-4
Amount am19psu wagered upon - Broncos 0x Golden Eagles 5x
Florida -6.5 vs. LSU - 2x
LSU was not the 3rd best team in the country before this game.
Western Kentucky +16.5 vs. Ball State - 2x
I'm sorry, Ball State, I just get scared sometimes. You know I love you, baby. Don't be mad.
New Mexico +23.5 vs. BYU - 2x
No idea what happened here. At least I covered.
Oakland +7 @ New Orleans - 5x
Seriously, I am 1 out of 5 on 5x bets for the season. Even if I suck and only hit 50% of 5x bets (which is not what my track record shows in previous years), there's still only an 18.75% chance of me sucking this bad. Fuck you small sample size, variance, and binomial distribution. I hope the three of you get anal herpes.
Atlanta +2.5 vs. Chicago - 2x
Watching the out of town scoreboard at the Meadowlands was liking waiting for my cancer biopsy results.
Houston -3 vs. Miami - 2x
Malignant.
Seattle -1 vs. Green Bay - 2x
Stage 5.
San Francisco +4.5 vs. Philadelphia - 3x
Metastasized. This game would ordinarily be in contention for bad beat of the year, but Christ, we've endured so many already.
San Diego -5.5 vs. New England - 2x
Nightcap that won after I went to bed. Didn't help my mood any.
The week will proceed mostly normally from here. TCU is looking pretty likely on Thursday.
Virginia +6 vs. East Carolina - 2x
Is Virginia getting its act together or were East Carolina's first two wins complete flukes? I'll go with the latter.
Mississippi State +1 vs. Vanderbilt - 3x
This was quite obviously a let down game for Vandy. I really should have bet this one for more.
Texas A&M vs. Kansas State - 2x
Kansas State still has an awful defense. It's just that aTm is teh awfulest.
Minnesota +11.5 @ Illinois - 2x
Guess which BigTen team other than the Buckeyes is 6-1? I'm disappointed the Gophers are off this week, because this would be a perfect time to fade them.
Tennessee +12.5 @ Georgia - 2x
Miraculously saved by a hook. Georgia is barely a Top 10 team at this point.
North Carolina -7.5 vs. Notre Dame - 2x
I wonder if this had been different if Tate doesn't get hurt on the first return. Either way, at least I don't have to hear about how Notre Dame is unranked this week.
Southern Mississippi +10 vs. Boise State - 5x
Total Yards - Broncos 350 Golden Eagles 278
Turnovers - Broncos 2 Golden Eagles 2
Fourth Down Conversions - Broncos 0-0 Golden Eagles 0-4
Amount am19psu wagered upon - Broncos 0x Golden Eagles 5x
Florida -6.5 vs. LSU - 2x
LSU was not the 3rd best team in the country before this game.
Western Kentucky +16.5 vs. Ball State - 2x
I'm sorry, Ball State, I just get scared sometimes. You know I love you, baby. Don't be mad.
New Mexico +23.5 vs. BYU - 2x
No idea what happened here. At least I covered.
Oakland +7 @ New Orleans - 5x
Seriously, I am 1 out of 5 on 5x bets for the season. Even if I suck and only hit 50% of 5x bets (which is not what my track record shows in previous years), there's still only an 18.75% chance of me sucking this bad. Fuck you small sample size, variance, and binomial distribution. I hope the three of you get anal herpes.
Atlanta +2.5 vs. Chicago - 2x
Watching the out of town scoreboard at the Meadowlands was liking waiting for my cancer biopsy results.
Houston -3 vs. Miami - 2x
Malignant.
Seattle -1 vs. Green Bay - 2x
Stage 5.
San Francisco +4.5 vs. Philadelphia - 3x
Metastasized. This game would ordinarily be in contention for bad beat of the year, but Christ, we've endured so many already.
San Diego -5.5 vs. New England - 2x
Nightcap that won after I went to bed. Didn't help my mood any.
The week will proceed mostly normally from here. TCU is looking pretty likely on Thursday.
Sunday 10/12
,
Labels:
nfl week 6,
plays
I'm feeling a bit uncomfortable putting these in so early, but I'm headed to the Meadowlands, so I don't have much choice.
Oakland +7 -109 5x (MB)
Atlanta +2.5 +108 2x (MB)
Houston -3 +107 2x (MB)
Seattle -2.5 +113 2x (MB)
San Francisco +4.5 -103 3x (MB)
Good luck today. I might get home in time to chase with the Chargers.
San Diego -5.5 -111 2x (MB)
I'm officially taking next week off. I'll write about it Wednesday.
Oakland +7 -109 5x (MB)
Atlanta +2.5 +108 2x (MB)
Houston -3 +107 2x (MB)
Seattle -2.5 +113 2x (MB)
San Francisco +4.5 -103 3x (MB)
Good luck today. I might get home in time to chase with the Chargers.
San Diego -5.5 -111 2x (MB)
I'm officially taking next week off. I'll write about it Wednesday.
Saturday 10/11
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 7,
plays
This card is terrible.
Earlies
Virginia +6 -105 2x (5D)
Mississippi State +1 +103 3x (MB)
Texas A&M +2.5 +120 2x (MB)
Minnesota +11.5 +103 2x (MB)
Afternooners
This came together kind of late:
Tennessee +12.5 +107 2x (MB)
EDIT: Stealing a play - UNC -7.5 +104 2x (MB)
Passes: Fake Miami, NW
Nightcaps
Southern Mississippi +10 -102 5x (5D)
Florida -6.5 -107 2x (5D)
Western Kentucky +16 -103 2x (5D)
New Mexico +23.5 -106 2x (MB)
Good luck today.
Earlies
Virginia +6 -105 2x (5D)
Mississippi State +1 +103 3x (MB)
Texas A&M +2.5 +120 2x (MB)
Minnesota +11.5 +103 2x (MB)
Afternooners
This came together kind of late:
Tennessee +12.5 +107 2x (MB)
EDIT: Stealing a play - UNC -7.5 +104 2x (MB)
Passes: Fake Miami, NW
Nightcaps
Southern Mississippi +10 -102 5x (5D)
Florida -6.5 -107 2x (5D)
Western Kentucky +16 -103 2x (5D)
New Mexico +23.5 -106 2x (MB)
Good luck today.
Inital Guesses for Tomorrow
,
Labels:
leans,
ncaaf week 7
Earlies
UVa 2x
Minny 3x
aTm 3x
Miss St 4x
Afternooners
NW 2x
Fake Miami 2x
Nightcaps
So Miss 4x
W Ky 3x
N Mex 2x
UVa 2x
Minny 3x
aTm 3x
Miss St 4x
Afternooners
NW 2x
Fake Miami 2x
Nightcaps
So Miss 4x
W Ky 3x
N Mex 2x
Leans - Week 6, Part 2
,
Labels:
leans,
ncaaf week 7,
nfl week 6
This college card is complete garbage. Over at RMMB, people are having a difficult time even putting together seven selections for their picks contest. I am having a hard time seeing a reason to play more than my strong leans on the college side. Pros is an entirely different story.
Strong leans (in order)
So Miss +10.5
aTm +3
Miss St +2.5
W Ky +16.5
Minny +12.5
OAK +7.5
SEA -1
HOU -3
SF +4.5
ATL +3
Moderate Leans (in order)
Fake Miami +11
N Mex +23.5
UVa +5.5
NW +1
Akron +1
Tenny +12.5
Okla St +14.5
ARZ +5
TB -1
SD -6
CIN +6
I really don't care what the Wagerline numbers say, those Texan and Seahawk numbers are set up to attract Mia and GB action. I would guess that I'll play 7 games on Saturday and 7-8 games on Sunday. And then I'll squeal like a pig on Monday.
EDIT: Just looked at Moneyline's leans for the week. Since we are so far off, it should give you an idea how shitty the card is this week.
Strong leans (in order)
So Miss +10.5
aTm +3
Miss St +2.5
W Ky +16.5
Minny +12.5
OAK +7.5
SEA -1
HOU -3
SF +4.5
ATL +3
Moderate Leans (in order)
Fake Miami +11
N Mex +23.5
UVa +5.5
NW +1
Akron +1
Tenny +12.5
Okla St +14.5
ARZ +5
TB -1
SD -6
CIN +6
I really don't care what the Wagerline numbers say, those Texan and Seahawk numbers are set up to attract Mia and GB action. I would guess that I'll play 7 games on Saturday and 7-8 games on Sunday. And then I'll squeal like a pig on Monday.
EDIT: Just looked at Moneyline's leans for the week. Since we are so far off, it should give you an idea how shitty the card is this week.
Market Fallacies
,
Labels:
contrarianism,
fiscal responsibility
Every now and then, I compare the sports gambling market to the stock market. I think the comparisons are apt, I just choose to be in the sports gambling market because I like sports more than CNBC and I have more knowledge (now) about the sport market than the financial market. So, it should come as no surprise that some of the reasons that people fail in the financial markets are the same as why people fail in the gambling markets.
Sweet, over at RMMB, posted a good article about this very topic. Moneyline already did a thorough, must-read breakdown of each and every fallacy covered in the article. However, I wanted to apply two of them to me.
From the article:
I think this might explain some of the reason for my downturn this year. I am fairly certain that I overrated my skill versus the variance of the market. The 2008-09 season was particularly kind to contrarian gamblers, due to the large number of upsets in CFB. It also coincided with a personal unit size increase of 400% (as opposed to 25% this year). As such, I probably overvalued my season last year.
This post is yet another in a string of Wednesday posts attempting to use science and logic to determine why my record isn't as strong this year. I'm hoping that my record sucks due to small sample size and my goals were unrealistic. One could also use Occam's Razor and conclude I'm a shitty gambler. I suppose we'll find out as time goes on.
Interestingly, after that whiny, bitchy post on Monday, I ended up down 3x for the week. After a couple of those losses, it just felt like I was down 10x.
Sweet, over at RMMB, posted a good article about this very topic. Moneyline already did a thorough, must-read breakdown of each and every fallacy covered in the article. However, I wanted to apply two of them to me.
From the article:
Recency effect: People tend to overweight recent events in considering the probability of future events.
Optimistic bias: People tend to be overconfident about their own abilities and the outcome of their plans. Something like 90% of people think that they are above average drivers less likely to get into an accident than the average joe.
I think this might explain some of the reason for my downturn this year. I am fairly certain that I overrated my skill versus the variance of the market. The 2008-09 season was particularly kind to contrarian gamblers, due to the large number of upsets in CFB. It also coincided with a personal unit size increase of 400% (as opposed to 25% this year). As such, I probably overvalued my season last year.
This post is yet another in a string of Wednesday posts attempting to use science and logic to determine why my record isn't as strong this year. I'm hoping that my record sucks due to small sample size and my goals were unrealistic. One could also use Occam's Razor and conclude I'm a shitty gambler. I suppose we'll find out as time goes on.
Interestingly, after that whiny, bitchy post on Monday, I ended up down 3x for the week. After a couple of those losses, it just felt like I was down 10x.
Leans - Week 6
,
Labels:
leans,
ncaaf week 7,
nfl week 6
College card looks less than mediocre this week. The pro side is going enlarge my sphincter again.
Strong Leans
Minny +12 @ Ill
Miss St +2.5 vs. Vandy
TAMU +3 vs. K-State
Okla St +14 @ Mizzou
So Miss +11.5 vs. Boise
W Ky +16.5 vs. Ball St
ATL +3 vs. CHI
HOU -3 vs. MIA
SF +4.5 vs. PHI
SEA -1 vs. GB
Moderate Leans
UVa +5.5 vs. ECU
NW +1 vs. Sparty
Tenny +12 @ UGa
Akron +1 vs. BGSU
N Mex +23.5 @ BYU
OAK +9 @ NO
CIN +6 @ NYJ
SD -6 vs. NE
ARZ +5 vs. DAL
Weak Leans
Ind +5.5 vs. Iowa
Texas +7 vs. OU
Wyo +24 vs. Utah
Colo St +15.5 vs. TCU
Fake Miami +11 @ No Ill
Stan +6.5 vs. Zona
Kent St +2.5 vs. Ohio
Rut +7.5 @ Cincy
Neb +21 @ TTU
UCF +17 @ Miami
Fla -6 vs. LSU
SMU +24.5 vs. Tulsa
Tulane +4.5 @ UTEP
SDSU +11 vs. AFA
TB -1 vs. CAR
STL +13.5 @ WAS
DEN -3.5 vs. JAX
CLE +9 vs. NYG
Strong Leans
Minny +12 @ Ill
Miss St +2.5 vs. Vandy
TAMU +3 vs. K-State
Okla St +14 @ Mizzou
So Miss +11.5 vs. Boise
W Ky +16.5 vs. Ball St
ATL +3 vs. CHI
HOU -3 vs. MIA
SF +4.5 vs. PHI
SEA -1 vs. GB
Moderate Leans
UVa +5.5 vs. ECU
NW +1 vs. Sparty
Tenny +12 @ UGa
Akron +1 vs. BGSU
N Mex +23.5 @ BYU
OAK +9 @ NO
CIN +6 @ NYJ
SD -6 vs. NE
ARZ +5 vs. DAL
Weak Leans
Ind +5.5 vs. Iowa
Texas +7 vs. OU
Wyo +24 vs. Utah
Colo St +15.5 vs. TCU
Fake Miami +11 @ No Ill
Stan +6.5 vs. Zona
Kent St +2.5 vs. Ohio
Rut +7.5 @ Cincy
Neb +21 @ TTU
UCF +17 @ Miami
Fla -6 vs. LSU
SMU +24.5 vs. Tulsa
Tulane +4.5 @ UTEP
SDSU +11 vs. AFA
TB -1 vs. CAR
STL +13.5 @ WAS
DEN -3.5 vs. JAX
CLE +9 vs. NYG
Review of Week 5
,
Labels:
in review,
ncaaf week 6,
nfl week 5,
plays
Let's get this out of the way:
Minnesota +3 +103 3x (MB)
Wow, a ridiculous game that I came out on the right side. Who knew?
-----------------------------------------------------------------
This season has been a complete abortion. The Houston/Indianapolis game yesterday was just a microcosm of what the whole football season has been like. I am getting awful close to taking a week or two off, but I know the second I do, it will turn around and I'll miss out on it. At least I didn't have my money in the stock market, which looks to be the only thing doing worse than me.
I am copying these stats from BigBookie on theRX forum. If you've been following along and understanding what I've been writing, it should tell you how absolutely square this season has been.
Road Favorites are 14-6 ATS
Faves of 1-3 points are 19-7 ATS
DD Dogs are 5-1 ATS
Every MNF game has gone Over
Let's take a look at how things could have turned out better:
Iowa State +11 vs. Kansas - 3x
Things started out well for the Cyclones, but like anything else, they made me sweat it out. I had visions of a Kansas pick 6 going through my head with about 4 minutes to go.
Stanford +6.5 @ Notre Dame - 2x
This game wasn't as close as the final looked. ND dominated the game. Stanfurd did just enough to make me waste 15 minutes watching the game closely.
Kent State +3.5 vs. Akron - 2x
I can't stand watching overtime games. Thankfully, neither team is that good on offense and Kent State's kicker can make field goals. [It should be noted that Purdue's worthless kicker cost most contrarians a solid win thanks to going 0-2 on chip shot figgies and 0-1 on PATs]
Iowa +6.5 @ Michigan State - 3x
Backdoor covering at its finest. Ferentz is a terrible coach and should be fired. Things were going pretty well for me so far. Then the afternoon games happened.
Kansas State +7 vs. Texas Tech - 4x, Kansas State ML +225 - 1x
Kansas State has a terrible, terrible defense. I still maintain Texas Tech is a fraud, and I think Vegas agrees with me. They'll have at least three losses before bowl season. The Raiders are clearly not a Top 7 team, regardless of this outcome.
Michigan -2.5 vs. Illinois - 2x
Zooked! I've said it before, I'll say it again, I hope this whole state gets SARS.
Virginia +13 vs. Maryland - 2x
If I told you the score of this game would be 31-0, did you think you would see green above? Me neither.
Nebraska +10 vs. Missouri - 4x
Missouri is really good. Like, might win the MNC good.
Northern Illinois +16.5 @ Tennessee - 2x
I'm not sure who Tennessee's replacement for David Cutcliffe is, but he might want to get the resume handy.
Houston +3 vs. Indianapolis - 5x
Slide, Sage, slide. I don't even want to talk about this game.
Miami +6 vs. San Diego - 4x
How long before every team in the NFL is running the WildHog? Miami is going to be overvalued now after knocking off last year's AFC Championship combatants. In fact, you might as well put me down for Houston -3 5x next week.
Detroit +3 vs. Chicago - 3x
See above about this state.
Tampa Bay +3.5 vs. Buffalo - 2x
Another backdoor cover. Not everything ends poorly. Just 75% of them.
San Francisco +3 vs. New England - 4x
It was the right play. I'm not remotely close to bitter about this.
And so there was the gambling week. Pretty awful stuff. The thing that pisses me off the most is that the 4x and 5x plays are just going horribly. I'm questioning if flat betting may be better, but I know the sides I am hammering are the correct plays. They just haven't worked out yet.
I think it's pretty safe to say that if next week goes as poorly as this one did, I'll be sitting out for a few weeks.
Minnesota +3 +103 3x (MB)
Wow, a ridiculous game that I came out on the right side. Who knew?
-----------------------------------------------------------------
This season has been a complete abortion. The Houston/Indianapolis game yesterday was just a microcosm of what the whole football season has been like. I am getting awful close to taking a week or two off, but I know the second I do, it will turn around and I'll miss out on it. At least I didn't have my money in the stock market, which looks to be the only thing doing worse than me.
I am copying these stats from BigBookie on theRX forum. If you've been following along and understanding what I've been writing, it should tell you how absolutely square this season has been.
Road Favorites are 14-6 ATS
Faves of 1-3 points are 19-7 ATS
DD Dogs are 5-1 ATS
Every MNF game has gone Over
Let's take a look at how things could have turned out better:
Iowa State +11 vs. Kansas - 3x
Things started out well for the Cyclones, but like anything else, they made me sweat it out. I had visions of a Kansas pick 6 going through my head with about 4 minutes to go.
Stanford +6.5 @ Notre Dame - 2x
This game wasn't as close as the final looked. ND dominated the game. Stanfurd did just enough to make me waste 15 minutes watching the game closely.
Kent State +3.5 vs. Akron - 2x
I can't stand watching overtime games. Thankfully, neither team is that good on offense and Kent State's kicker can make field goals. [It should be noted that Purdue's worthless kicker cost most contrarians a solid win thanks to going 0-2 on chip shot figgies and 0-1 on PATs]
Iowa +6.5 @ Michigan State - 3x
Backdoor covering at its finest. Ferentz is a terrible coach and should be fired. Things were going pretty well for me so far. Then the afternoon games happened.
Kansas State +7 vs. Texas Tech - 4x, Kansas State ML +225 - 1x
Kansas State has a terrible, terrible defense. I still maintain Texas Tech is a fraud, and I think Vegas agrees with me. They'll have at least three losses before bowl season. The Raiders are clearly not a Top 7 team, regardless of this outcome.
Michigan -2.5 vs. Illinois - 2x
Zooked! I've said it before, I'll say it again, I hope this whole state gets SARS.
Virginia +13 vs. Maryland - 2x
If I told you the score of this game would be 31-0, did you think you would see green above? Me neither.
Nebraska +10 vs. Missouri - 4x
Missouri is really good. Like, might win the MNC good.
Northern Illinois +16.5 @ Tennessee - 2x
I'm not sure who Tennessee's replacement for David Cutcliffe is, but he might want to get the resume handy.
Houston +3 vs. Indianapolis - 5x
Slide, Sage, slide. I don't even want to talk about this game.
Miami +6 vs. San Diego - 4x
How long before every team in the NFL is running the WildHog? Miami is going to be overvalued now after knocking off last year's AFC Championship combatants. In fact, you might as well put me down for Houston -3 5x next week.
Detroit +3 vs. Chicago - 3x
See above about this state.
Tampa Bay +3.5 vs. Buffalo - 2x
Another backdoor cover. Not everything ends poorly. Just 75% of them.
San Francisco +3 vs. New England - 4x
It was the right play. I'm not remotely close to bitter about this.
And so there was the gambling week. Pretty awful stuff. The thing that pisses me off the most is that the 4x and 5x plays are just going horribly. I'm questioning if flat betting may be better, but I know the sides I am hammering are the correct plays. They just haven't worked out yet.
I think it's pretty safe to say that if next week goes as poorly as this one did, I'll be sitting out for a few weeks.
Sunday 9/5
,
Labels:
nfl week 5,
plays
It was a tough decision to pass Atlanta and Baltimore. Most weeks, they would have been plays, but I decided to keep the card small.
Early Games
Houston +3 +115 5x (MB)
Miami +6 -106 4x (5D)
Detroit +3 +104 3x (MB)
Passes: Atlanta, Baltimore
I also sold a couple of hooks in the Houston and Detroit games. The difference in juice was too much to pass up.
Late Games
Tampa Bay +3.5 +105 2x (MB)
San Francisco +3 +104 4x (MB)
Passes: None
More hook selling this afternoon. I can't wait until this bites me in the ass.
Good luck today.
Early Games
Houston +3 +115 5x (MB)
Miami +6 -106 4x (5D)
Detroit +3 +104 3x (MB)
Passes: Atlanta, Baltimore
I also sold a couple of hooks in the Houston and Detroit games. The difference in juice was too much to pass up.
Late Games
Tampa Bay +3.5 +105 2x (MB)
San Francisco +3 +104 4x (MB)
Passes: None
More hook selling this afternoon. I can't wait until this bites me in the ass.
Good luck today.
Saturday 9/4 - A Quick Look
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 6,
plays
Anger consumes me. This should have been a much better day... again. I hope everyone has been fading the hell out of my 4x plays.
Be back tomorrow with more losers.
Be back tomorrow with more losers.
Saturday 9/4
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 6,
plays
Plexing today, so wagers will be updated throughout the day. Let's get started with this abortion:
Early games
Iowa State +11 -106 3x (MB)
Stanford +6.5 -105 2x (MB)
Kent State +3.5 -110 2x (5D)
Iowa +6.5 -103 3x (MB)
Passes: Arkansas, Baylor
Afternoon Games
Kansas State +7 -110 4x (5D)
Kansas State ML +225 1x (to win 2.25x) (5D)
Michigan -2.5 +101 2x (MB)
Passes: None
This is what happens when you bet on a piece of shit university and a team that plays no defense.Profits!
Late Games
Virginia +13 -105 2x (MB)
Nebraska +10 +106 4x (MB)
No Illinois +16 +109 3x (MB)
Passes: Toledo, Colorado, Hawaii
The NFL card tomorrow looks like it will break my bankroll. I might be playing >70% of the games. Good luck.
Early games
Iowa State +11 -106 3x (MB)
Stanford +6.5 -105 2x (MB)
Kent State +3.5 -110 2x (5D)
Iowa +6.5 -103 3x (MB)
Passes: Arkansas, Baylor
Afternoon Games
Kansas State +7 -110 4x (5D)
Kansas State ML +225 1x (to win 2.25x) (5D)
Michigan -2.5 +101 2x (MB)
Passes: None
This is what happens when you bet on a piece of shit university and a team that plays no defense.
Late Games
Virginia +13 -105 2x (MB)
Nebraska +10 +106 4x (MB)
No Illinois +16 +109 3x (MB)
Passes: Toledo, Colorado, Hawaii
The NFL card tomorrow looks like it will break my bankroll. I might be playing >70% of the games. Good luck.
Friday 9/3
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 6
Passing Marshall. Too many touts are on the Herd.
No opinion on BYU/Utah St, though RMMB consensus is on the Aggies. Not sure where this restraint has come from this week. I'll probably blow my wad on tomorrow's crappy card.
No opinion on BYU/Utah St, though RMMB consensus is on the Aggies. Not sure where this restraint has come from this week. I'll probably blow my wad on tomorrow's crappy card.
Leans - Week 5, Part 2
,
Labels:
leans,
ncaaf week 6,
nfl week 5
Looks like it is the Big XII's turn to have its way with my bankroll this week. I will be playing all the strong leans for at least a 2x. We'll see how things play out in the morning for the moderate leans.
Strong Leans
K-State
Iowa St
No Ill
Iowa
HOU
DET
TB
SF
MIN
Moderate Leans
Marshall (Fri.)
Virginia
Stanford
Michigan
Nebraska
Colorado
Arkansas
Toledo
Kent St
Baylor
BAL
MIA
ATL
Strong Leans
K-State
Iowa St
No Ill
Iowa
HOU
DET
TB
SF
MIN
Moderate Leans
Marshall (Fri.)
Virginia
Stanford
Michigan
Nebraska
Colorado
Arkansas
Toledo
Kent St
Baylor
BAL
MIA
ATL
A Moment of Reflection
,
Labels:
contrarianism,
fiscal responsibility,
leans
Dammit. Some things are just better left unknown.
I decided to crunch some numbers this evening. If you look to your right, you'll see my record gambling so far this year. I'm not doing well. Neither are most contrarians I know. Last week's post got me thinking about my struggles. I've been doing this long enough now that very little in the way of research is needed for me to figure out which side to bet on. Am I good enough at this point to look at lines and Wagerline numbers and pick games? Scarily, the answer very prematurely seems to be yes.
Another motivation for this study was a discussion that was brought up on RMMB during Week 1 of college football. Moneyline put in a few bets on Thursday night thinking that the line movement would go away from him if he waited. It had always been status quo on the RMMB to wait until about an hour or so before game time to put one's bets in. That's the way I'd been doing since I started. For the first two weeks, I ran an informal study and found about 70% of the lines from Tuesday moved away from the contrarian side during the week. That is to say, I would have got better numbers or juice if I had placed my bets on Tuesday.
First off, let me point out that we are one-third of the way through college football season and only one-quarter of the way through pro football season. Therefore, the sample size is not near large enough for me to change strategy... yet.
This brings me to what I did today. I decided to look back at all of my Tuesday leans posts from the season thus far (I knew starting a blog would come in handy at some point) to see if I had placed my wagers on Tuesday instead of Saturday, would I be ahead. I assigned all of my Strong Leans as 4 unit bets and all of my Moderate Leans at 2 unit bets, both at -105 juice, which seems reasonable. Since I've been recording the line at the time along with the leans, it was academic to go back to Yahoo and check the scores. Here is what I found:
College Football:
Pro Football:
So far as I can tell, NFL Week 3 would be the only week for either sport where I would have done worse playing my bets on Tuesday. Does this mean that I am overthinking my bets on Saturday and Sunday? Am I just assigning units incorrectly? Am I trimming too many games off my card? If I had to guess, it would be equal parts a, b, and c. In any case, this is an interesting experiment and I am going to continue updating it periodically.
EDIT: Just for S&Gs, I took a look at just strong leans. I would be up 30.6x in NCF and 15.2x in NFL at 4x/bet. Even if I backed off to 2x per strong leans, I would still be kicking my current ass. Dammit.
I decided to crunch some numbers this evening. If you look to your right, you'll see my record gambling so far this year. I'm not doing well. Neither are most contrarians I know. Last week's post got me thinking about my struggles. I've been doing this long enough now that very little in the way of research is needed for me to figure out which side to bet on. Am I good enough at this point to look at lines and Wagerline numbers and pick games? Scarily, the answer very prematurely seems to be yes.
Another motivation for this study was a discussion that was brought up on RMMB during Week 1 of college football. Moneyline put in a few bets on Thursday night thinking that the line movement would go away from him if he waited. It had always been status quo on the RMMB to wait until about an hour or so before game time to put one's bets in. That's the way I'd been doing since I started. For the first two weeks, I ran an informal study and found about 70% of the lines from Tuesday moved away from the contrarian side during the week. That is to say, I would have got better numbers or juice if I had placed my bets on Tuesday.
First off, let me point out that we are one-third of the way through college football season and only one-quarter of the way through pro football season. Therefore, the sample size is not near large enough for me to change strategy... yet.
This brings me to what I did today. I decided to look back at all of my Tuesday leans posts from the season thus far (I knew starting a blog would come in handy at some point) to see if I had placed my wagers on Tuesday instead of Saturday, would I be ahead. I assigned all of my Strong Leans as 4 unit bets and all of my Moderate Leans at 2 unit bets, both at -105 juice, which seems reasonable. Since I've been recording the line at the time along with the leans, it was academic to go back to Yahoo and check the scores. Here is what I found:
College Football:
Pro Football:
So far as I can tell, NFL Week 3 would be the only week for either sport where I would have done worse playing my bets on Tuesday. Does this mean that I am overthinking my bets on Saturday and Sunday? Am I just assigning units incorrectly? Am I trimming too many games off my card? If I had to guess, it would be equal parts a, b, and c. In any case, this is an interesting experiment and I am going to continue updating it periodically.
EDIT: Just for S&Gs, I took a look at just strong leans. I would be up 30.6x in NCF and 15.2x in NFL at 4x/bet. Even if I backed off to 2x per strong leans, I would still be kicking my current ass. Dammit.
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