Looking at the Bowl Line Guesses

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Ugh. This is going to be awful. All lines are current as of 5:30p at Pinnacle. I figure that gives about 12 hours for the lines to settle into their natural position.

The key is like this: within 2 points of the actual line, within 5 points, and greater than 5 points off the actual line. This color means I was way off and had the wrong side favored. Hopefully there isn't too much of it. I'll also add an initial lean if I have one. I haven't looked at any consensus numbers yet, so these are obviously subject to change.

EagleBank Bowl - Dec 20 - Washington, DC
Wake Forest vs. Navy -3
Actual line: Wake -3
Good start. To be fair, I wasn't sure how to handle this. I was reasonably sure the books thought the Deacons were better, but 24-17 sort of influences how the teams are judged.

New Mexico Bowl - Dec 20 - Albuquerque

Colorado State vs. Fresno State -2
Actual Line: Fresno -3
Lean: Colorado State
The books have known since about Week 6 that Fresno isn't very good. It amazes that the betting public hadn't picked up on it.

magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl - Dec 20 - St. Petersburg
Memphis vs. South Florida -11
Actual Line: USF -12

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl - Dec 20 - Las Vegas

BYU -5 vs. Arizona
Actual Line: Arizona -3
Lean: Arizona
I expected BYU to be favored because most people haven't let go of their preseason expectations of the Cougars. Also, look for the MWC/Pac10 card to get played by the public here (MWC is 6-1 against the Pac10 this year).

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - Dec 21 - New Orleans
Southern Miss vs. Troy -7
Actual Line: Troy -4

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl - Dec 23 - San Diego
Boise State vs. TCU -9
Actual Line: TCU -2.5
Lean: TCU
Real email I wrote to Jonny on Monday: "My initial thoughts were given the lines for the BYU and Utah games, the books really like TCU, which I think is true. Of course at 9, Boise would get absolutely pounded. I'm not sure the books have very much respect for Boise away from the smurf turf after looking at some of their road lines this year. I probably should have put it at 3, which will still make Boise a likely public dog." So, uh, yeah.

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - Dec 24 - Honolulu
Hawaii vs. Notre Dame -2
Actual Line: Hawaii -2
Lean: Hawaii
And it is a small lean on Hawaii. There is going to be a lot of "1993" from the public.

Motor City Bowl - Dec 26 - 8th Circle of Hell
Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan -10
Actual Line: Central -6.5

Meineke Car Care Bowl - Dec 27 - Charlotte
West Virginia -2 vs. North Carolina
Actual Line: pick
This game is interesting. Obviously, ACC > Big East. However, UNC limped down the stretch and WVU has their bowl reputation from the last 3 years. More analysis needed.

Champs Sports Bowl - Dec 27 - Orlando
Wisconsin vs. Florida State -13
Actual Line: Florida State -4.5
Lean: Wisconsin
Gulp.

Emerald Bowl - Dec 27 - San Francisco

Miami vs. California -3
Actual Line: Cal -7
I forgot this was essentially a home game for Cal. Discrepancy noted.

Independence Bowl - Dec 28 - Shreveport
Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech -3
Actual Line: Northern Illinois -1.5
This was a total shot in the dark. I think the books probably feel that way too.

Papajohns.com Bowl - Dec 29 - Birmingham
NC State vs. Rutgers -6
Acutal Line: Rutgers -6.5

Valero Alamo Bowl - Dec 29 - San Antonio

Missouri -18 vs. Northwestern
Actual Line: Mizzou -13

Roady's Humanitarian Bowl - Dec 30 - Boise

Maryland -4 vs. Nevada
Actual Line: Nevada -1
Lean: Nevada
The lean is simply because a WAC team is favored over an ACC team.

Texas Bowl - Dec 30 - Houston
Rice -5 vs. Western Michigan
Actual Line: Rice -3
Lean: Under whatever
I don't know what the total is (72.5, actually), but there will be a gangbang on the over.

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl - Dec 30 - San Diego
Oklahoma State -13 vs. Oregon
Actual Line: Pokes -3.5
Lean: Oregon
Wow, did I buy into the Big XII South hype or what. I feel like this should be purple just on principle. If I fell for it, imagine what Joe P. thinks when he sees this line.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl - Dec 31 - Fort Worth
Houston -6 vs. Air Force
Actual Line: Houston -2.5

Brut Sun Bowl - Dec 31 - El Paso
Oregon State -5 vs. Pittsburgh
Actual Line: Oregon State -3
From both an Xs and Os and a personnel perspective, I really like Oregon State in this spot. Which means I'll be passing the Sun Bowl.

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl - Dec 31 - Nashville
Boston College -10 vs. Vanderbilt
Actual Line: BC -3.5
Lean: Vandy
Come on, I don't want to bet on the Commodores. They suck.

Insight Bowl - Dec 31 - Tempe

Kansas -12 vs. Minnesota
Actual Line: Kansas -10.5

Chick-fil-a Bowl - Dec 31 - Atlanta

LSU vs. Georgia Tech -8
Actual Line: Georgia Tech -4
Lean: Georgia Tech
I let my anti-LSU bias get in the way. Their name will probably make them the public side here.

Outback Bowl - Jan 1 - Tampa
South Carolina vs. Iowa -2
Actual Line: Iowa -3

Capital One Bowl - Jan 1 - Orlando

Georgia -8 vs. Michigan State
Actual Line: Georgia -7.5
Lean: Sparty
People still think Georgia is a quality football team because they were the third best team in the SEC. Don't be that person.

Konica Minolta Gator - Jan 1 - Jacksonville

Clemson -3 vs. Nebraska
Actual Line: Clemson -3
I have no idea how I got that line right. None.

Rose Bowl Game presented by Citi - Jan 1 - Pasadena

Penn State vs. USC -7
Actual Line: USC -10
Lean: Penn State
If this were the regular season, the line would be seven.

FedEx Orange Bowl - Jan 1 - Miami
Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech -6
Actual Line: Cincinnati -1
Lean: Cincinnati
VT has the name here. That alone will make them public as a short dog. Good call by Moneyline on this game.

AT&T Cotton Bowl - Jan 2 - Dallas

Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech -4
Actual Line: Texas Tech -5.5
Lean: Ole Miss
If you can't see this as a contrarian side, you should stop trying to be one.

Autozone Liberty Bowl - Jan 2 - Memphis
Kentucky -2 vs. East Carolina
Actual Line: East Carolina -1.5
No lean here on the Pirates. People still remember those two wins against Vo Tech and WVU early in the season.

Allstate Sugar Bowl - Jan 2 - New Orleans

Utah vs. Alabama -14
Actual Line: Alabama -10.5
I thought the books might protect Alabama with last year's Sugar Bowl debacle still fresh.

International Bowl - Jan 3 - Toronto
Buffalo vs. Connecticut -7
Actual Line: UConn -4
Lean: Bills
Hopefully Scott Norwood will hit the field goal this time.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl - Jan 5 - Glendale
Ohio State vs. Texas -6
Actual Line: Texas -9
Lean: tOSU
If this were the regular season, the line would be six.

GMAC Bowl - Jan 6 - Mobile

Tulsa -9 vs. Ball State
Actual Line: Ball State -2.5
I thought CUSA >> MAC. I thought wrong.

FedEx BCS National Championship Game - Jan 8 - Miami
Oklahoma vs. Florida -2
Actual Line: Florida -3.5
It is looking like a stress free night on the 8th.


Ok, lets tally it up-
Within two points: 12
Within five points: 13
Greater than five points: 4
Awful: 5

I grade this out as mediocre. It was my first try and I got a lot of the big games. I'll be interested to see how Moneyline did tomorrow.

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