Passing Florida Atlantic tonight. I actually have a pretty strong lean here, but Moneyline and Jonny essentially talked me out of it. Back with leans in an hour or so.
And after checking the boards, thank you ML and Jonny for talking me out of it. Tout services are crawling with FAU plays.
For those of you not paying attention, this is the first week of football every night, even if tonight it is Sun Belt and tomorrow is WAC. Only 15 weeks of football left, so enjoy it. Onward...
Strong Leans
UVa +14
K-State +7.5
Iowa St +13.5
No Ill +15.5
Arky +24.5
Neb +11
HOU +3
DET +3.5
TB +3
SF +3
Moderate Leans
Stanfurd +7.5
scUM -2.5
Colo +14
Toledo +7.5
Kent St +3.5
Iower +8
BAL +3
ARZ -1
ATL +7
Weak Leans
Marshall +8.5 (Fri.)
NC State +8
Ind +7.5
UConn +6.5
Vandy +4.5
Baylor +27.5
Wisky +2.5
UL Monroe +2
MIA +6.5
DAL -17.5 (I want to lay that many points against my favorite team)
MIN +3
Be back tomorrow with something. Maybe.
Review of Week 4
,
Labels:
in review,
ncaaf week 5,
nfl week 4
Once again, due to traveling, I saw next to no football. Which is fine, because I probably would have brooded all afternoon because just about all of my passes ended up winning. I haven't had a chance to look over the upcoming card yet, but from what I have read, it looks like this will be nausea-inducing weekend.
Sunday 9/28
,
Labels:
nfl week 4,
plays
Still traveling...
KC +8.5 -102 3x
SF +4 -108 2x
Minny +3 +102 2x
Oakland +7.5 -110 3x
Dallas -10.5 -101 2x
EDIT: Chicago +3 +107 3x
Good luck.
KC +8.5 -102 3x
SF +4 -108 2x
Minny +3 +102 2x
Oakland +7.5 -110 3x
Dallas -10.5 -101 2x
EDIT: Chicago +3 +107 3x
Good luck.
Saturday 9/27
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 5,
plays
At the Penn State game, so keeping things small.
Tennessee +6.5 -105 3x
UL-Lafayette +20.5 -109 2x
Indiana +7.5 -101 4x
Michigan +5 -105 4x
Akron +11 -105 2x
Good luck.
Tennessee +6.5 -105 3x
UL-Lafayette +20.5 -109 2x
Indiana +7.5 -101 4x
Michigan +5 -105 4x
Akron +11 -105 2x
Good luck.
Leans - Week 4, Part 2
,
Labels:
leans,
ncaaf week 5,
nfl week 4
Passing USC. Vegas set this line too low anticipating the gangbang on the Beavers because "Oregon State always plays USC tough1!!!111! LULZ!!!11!!" That said, USC is still the public side, but not as much as you would expect the #1 team to be against a team that lost handily to Stanford. Anyway, in the order of the card...
Strong Leans
Indiana
Akron
Tennessee
Michigan
UCLA
UL-Lafayette
KC
OAK
CHI
Moderate Leans
Navy
Houston
Wyoming
SF
MIN
Weak Leans
Mississippi
TCU
Army
Kent St
USF
Nevada
ARZ
TB
STL
Strong Leans
Indiana
Akron
Tennessee
Michigan
UCLA
UL-Lafayette
KC
OAK
CHI
Moderate Leans
Navy
Houston
Wyoming
SF
MIN
Weak Leans
Mississippi
TCU
Army
Kent St
USF
Nevada
ARZ
TB
STL
A Question From My Only Reader
,
Labels:
contrarianism
In lieu of Trisomy 21, I figured it would be better to answer this question:
Absolutely, I bet on underdogs a lot more than I do favorites. I would guess the ratio is 10-1, or even 20-1. But the reason is because that is where the market is inefficient. People, in general, like betting on favorites. I wish I knew enough about stock market inefficiencies to frame it in those terms, but I know big time traders do the same thing on Wall Street (which is obviously working out well for them).
It's probably easier to put this in an example. Let's say the true line for the Penn State/Illinois game this week should be 10 points. But, since the bookmakers know that: it will be a popular game to bet on, Penn State is probably slightly overrated in the public's mind because of the blowouts, and that the average bettor likes gambling on favorites, they inflate the line.
To continue with the example, let's assume that if the line is set at 10 points, Penn State covers 50% of the time and Illinois covers 50% of the time. However, if Vegas sets the line at 10, 80% of the money will come in on Penn State. Before going forward, we need to specify some things. If 80% of the action is on Penn State, that means when Penn State covers, Vegas has to pay out $800 for every $1100 wagered, assuming -110 juice, while they get $220 for every $1100 wagered. Likewise, when Penn State covers, Vegas pays out $200 and receives $880. Here is the relevant math:
So, because of the juice, Vegas still wins. Now, what if they set the line at 14 and only get 60% of the action on Penn State with P(PSU) down to 45%. When Penn State covers, Vegas has to pay out $600 while getting back $440. When Illinois covers Vegas pays out $400 and receives $660. Plugging back in:
Notice, even though the line no longer has equal expectation for one side winning versus the other, Vegas has increased their profits, assuming an equal number of bets are placed on each line.
Also, on top of the mathematical theory above, you can play off public perception as well. For example, last week Tennessee got emasculated by Florida while Auburn won the first 58:57 against defending national champion LSU. In the public's mind, Auburn is much better than the Volunteers, yet they are only favored by six. You can figure this out intuitively by watching PTI, reading message boards, etc.
Vegas is taking on some risk in this case. If Auburn does indeed cover, the books are probably going to lose some money. That number is too low to get anywhere close to an equal amount of money down on both sides. However, Vegas also thinks that Tennessee covers a much larger amount of the time (this would be P(Ten) from above) than in the example I used. That is, in the books' minds, their expected value (E(line) from above) is huge by setting this number and they are willing to accept the increase in variance (aka risk). Just for S&G's, with P(Ten) = 80% and 90% of the action coming in on Auburn:
I'm exaggerating a little bit, but not a whole lot.
So, how does this all come into play for me? If I can find the lines where Vegas is taking a stand, like Auburn/Tennessee and Michigan/Wisconsin this week, then essentially, I am betting on Vegas to win. Obviously, the books' expected value is greater than mine because of juice, but you see my point. Vegas doesn't build $500 million casinos every year because they set losing lines.
The last thing to realize is that gamblers have become slightly (and I do mean slightly) more sophisticated in recent years. Most people are at least aware of the paper I linked to above, thanks to Bill Simmons. So now, the books will put out bait lines to get people to bet on underdogs. The Tampa Bay/Green Bay NFL line is an example. They could have set an equal action line like GB -3, but the game is in Tampa and these teams are really about equal, regardless of what the betting public thinks. Instead, they put out a bait line to attract a ton of Green Bay action. Any "sophisticated" gambler sees that line and takes the dog. The true contrarian knows the difference.
Anyway, so there is another look at contrarianism. I'm sure no one has read this far, and, frankly, I don't blame you. But it was at least cathartic to write the numbers out to show that I'm not completely retarded, the start of college football season notwithstanding.
Good luck this week.
Moyer, question -
I've been casually reading your blog for a while and realize that most of your bets are placed on the team getting points. Is your mindset to pick against the pack? Is the success rate higher when you pick the underdogs? As you mention the other day your record isn't terrible (slightly under .500) but if you reversed your thought process would you be slightly over .500?
Absolutely, I bet on underdogs a lot more than I do favorites. I would guess the ratio is 10-1, or even 20-1. But the reason is because that is where the market is inefficient. People, in general, like betting on favorites. I wish I knew enough about stock market inefficiencies to frame it in those terms, but I know big time traders do the same thing on Wall Street (which is obviously working out well for them).
It's probably easier to put this in an example. Let's say the true line for the Penn State/Illinois game this week should be 10 points. But, since the bookmakers know that: it will be a popular game to bet on, Penn State is probably slightly overrated in the public's mind because of the blowouts, and that the average bettor likes gambling on favorites, they inflate the line.
To continue with the example, let's assume that if the line is set at 10 points, Penn State covers 50% of the time and Illinois covers 50% of the time. However, if Vegas sets the line at 10, 80% of the money will come in on Penn State. Before going forward, we need to specify some things. If 80% of the action is on Penn State, that means when Penn State covers, Vegas has to pay out $800 for every $1100 wagered, assuming -110 juice, while they get $220 for every $1100 wagered. Likewise, when Penn State covers, Vegas pays out $200 and receives $880. Here is the relevant math:
E(line) = P(PSU)*(Bets won/lost with PSU covering) + P(Ill)*(W/L Ill)
E(line) = .5 * (-800 + 220) + .5 * (880 - 200) = $50
So, because of the juice, Vegas still wins. Now, what if they set the line at 14 and only get 60% of the action on Penn State with P(PSU) down to 45%. When Penn State covers, Vegas has to pay out $600 while getting back $440. When Illinois covers Vegas pays out $400 and receives $660. Plugging back in:
E(line) = .45 * (-600 + 440) + .55 * (660 - 400) = $71
Notice, even though the line no longer has equal expectation for one side winning versus the other, Vegas has increased their profits, assuming an equal number of bets are placed on each line.
Also, on top of the mathematical theory above, you can play off public perception as well. For example, last week Tennessee got emasculated by Florida while Auburn won the first 58:57 against defending national champion LSU. In the public's mind, Auburn is much better than the Volunteers, yet they are only favored by six. You can figure this out intuitively by watching PTI, reading message boards, etc.
Vegas is taking on some risk in this case. If Auburn does indeed cover, the books are probably going to lose some money. That number is too low to get anywhere close to an equal amount of money down on both sides. However, Vegas also thinks that Tennessee covers a much larger amount of the time (this would be P(Ten) from above) than in the example I used. That is, in the books' minds, their expected value (E(line) from above) is huge by setting this number and they are willing to accept the increase in variance (aka risk). Just for S&G's, with P(Ten) = 80% and 90% of the action coming in on Auburn:
E(line) = .8 * (-100 + 990) + .2 * (-900 + 110) = $554
I'm exaggerating a little bit, but not a whole lot.
So, how does this all come into play for me? If I can find the lines where Vegas is taking a stand, like Auburn/Tennessee and Michigan/Wisconsin this week, then essentially, I am betting on Vegas to win. Obviously, the books' expected value is greater than mine because of juice, but you see my point. Vegas doesn't build $500 million casinos every year because they set losing lines.
The last thing to realize is that gamblers have become slightly (and I do mean slightly) more sophisticated in recent years. Most people are at least aware of the paper I linked to above, thanks to Bill Simmons. So now, the books will put out bait lines to get people to bet on underdogs. The Tampa Bay/Green Bay NFL line is an example. They could have set an equal action line like GB -3, but the game is in Tampa and these teams are really about equal, regardless of what the betting public thinks. Instead, they put out a bait line to attract a ton of Green Bay action. Any "sophisticated" gambler sees that line and takes the dog. The true contrarian knows the difference.
Anyway, so there is another look at contrarianism. I'm sure no one has read this far, and, frankly, I don't blame you. But it was at least cathartic to write the numbers out to show that I'm not completely retarded, the start of college football season notwithstanding.
Good luck this week.
Week 4 Leans
,
Labels:
leans,
ncaaf week 5,
nfl week 4
Time to hop back on the wagon. There are again some trap lines out there to exploit. Hopefully, I'm not the one exploited.
Strong Leans
Indiana +8 vs. Michigan State
Akron +10.5 vs. Cincinnati
Houston +10.5 @ ECU
Michigan +6 vs. Wisconsin (!)
UCLA +6.5 vs. Fresno State
Kansas City +9.5 vs. Denver
Tampa Bay -1 vs. Green Bay
Oakland +9 vs. San Diego
Moderate Leans
Oregon State +25 vs. USC (Thu.)
Tennessee +6 @ Auburn
Wyoming +3.5 vs. Bowling Green
TCU +17.5 @ Oklahoma
Army +28 @ Texas A&M
San Fran +6 @ New Orleans
Minny +3 @ Tennessee
Weak Leans
Navy +16 @ Wake Forest
Mississippi +22 @ Florida
Kent State +17.5 @ Ball State
USF -8.5 @ NC State
Nevada +3.5 @ UNLV
Arizona +1 @ Jets
St Louis +9.5 vs. Buffalo
I'm sure the 5 unit bet on Michigan will turn out well...
Strong Leans
Indiana +8 vs. Michigan State
Akron +10.5 vs. Cincinnati
Houston +10.5 @ ECU
Michigan +6 vs. Wisconsin (!)
UCLA +6.5 vs. Fresno State
Kansas City +9.5 vs. Denver
Tampa Bay -1 vs. Green Bay
Oakland +9 vs. San Diego
Moderate Leans
Oregon State +25 vs. USC (Thu.)
Tennessee +6 @ Auburn
Wyoming +3.5 vs. Bowling Green
TCU +17.5 @ Oklahoma
Army +28 @ Texas A&M
San Fran +6 @ New Orleans
Minny +3 @ Tennessee
Weak Leans
Navy +16 @ Wake Forest
Mississippi +22 @ Florida
Kent State +17.5 @ Ball State
USF -8.5 @ NC State
Nevada +3.5 @ UNLV
Arizona +1 @ Jets
St Louis +9.5 vs. Buffalo
I'm sure the 5 unit bet on Michigan will turn out well...
Review of Week 3
,
Labels:
in review,
ncaaf week 4,
nfl week 3
I really don't want to get into each individual game from this past week. I am incredibly frustrated. In college football, my record isn't terrible, but it's the little plays that are coming through and the big ones are failing miserably. Hopefully, my fortune turns around this week. It is some consolation that all of the smart gamblers I know are also starting off crappy, so it's not just me, it's just been a square season so far.
I mentioned on Saturday that I would explain why Toledo was a 5x play. I jumped on it because the line stayed at 6.5 for far too long. A lot of times when that happens, the public is jumping all over the favorite and sharps are playing the dog because they think it will be a lot closer than 7 points. I needed OT to get there, but fortunately Toledo ended up covering.
I mentioned on Saturday that I would explain why Toledo was a 5x play. I jumped on it because the line stayed at 6.5 for far too long. A lot of times when that happens, the public is jumping all over the favorite and sharps are playing the dog because they think it will be a lot closer than 7 points. I needed OT to get there, but fortunately Toledo ended up covering.
Sunday 9/21
,
Labels:
nfl week 3,
plays
Ugh. Last night blew and today promises to be a shitshow as well.
Kansas City +6 -102 2x
Houston +4.5 -102 2x
Minnesota -3 -116 4x
Late Games
Detroit +4.5 -102 2x
Pittsburgh +3.5 -105 2x
Baltimore -3 -120 2x
Cle/Bal O37 -108 1x
Good luck.
Kansas City +6 -102 2x
Houston +4.5 -102 2x
Minnesota -3 -116 4x
Late Games
Detroit +4.5 -102 2x
Pittsburgh +3.5 -105 2x
Baltimore -3 -120 2x
Cle/Bal O37 -108 1x
Good luck.
Saturday 9/20
,
Labels:
leans,
ncaaf week 4,
plays
I'm still working out exactly how much I want to wager on these games, but I am at least pretty sure who I am going to play. I'll list it below in order of strongest to weakest leans.
Plays
Early Games
Wyoming +27.5 -102 2x
Arkansas +9 -104 3x
Central Michigan +10 -105 1x
NC State +7.5 -108 2x
UL Monroe +6 -104 3x
Late Games
Update 5:00p EDT: I should probably point out before the afternoon goes any further that these were always big plays in mind. This morning, I had 4x, 4x, 3x, and 2x for each game respectively. Just so no one thinks I'm chasing later when I end up with big plays at night following an abortion of an afternoon.
Update 5:55p EDT: Man this card sucks. I might lose my shirt tonight. I'll explain why Toledo is a 5x play in Monday's post.
Update 7:30p EDT: Smart people are on Auburn. I've enhanced my position accordingly.
Ole Miss -7 -110 4x
Auburn +2 -101 3x
Toledo +6.5 -105 5x
Arizona State +7 -113 2x
Adding: Auburn +2.5 -108 2x, for a total of 5x
Passes
FAU +7 @ Minny
Tennessee +6.5 vs. Florida
Army +10 vs. Akron
Pitt -1.5 vs. Iowa
Texas A&M +4.5 vs. Miami (FL)
Florida Int'l +28 vs. USF
Plays
Early Games
Wyoming +27.5 -102 2x
Arkansas +9 -104 3x
Central Michigan +10 -105 1x
NC State +7.5 -108 2x
UL Monroe +6 -104 3x
Late Games
Update 5:00p EDT: I should probably point out before the afternoon goes any further that these were always big plays in mind. This morning, I had 4x, 4x, 3x, and 2x for each game respectively. Just so no one thinks I'm chasing later when I end up with big plays at night following an abortion of an afternoon.
Update 5:55p EDT: Man this card sucks. I might lose my shirt tonight. I'll explain why Toledo is a 5x play in Monday's post.
Update 7:30p EDT: Smart people are on Auburn. I've enhanced my position accordingly.
Ole Miss -7 -110 4x
Auburn +2 -101 3x
Toledo +6.5 -105 5x
Arizona State +7 -113 2x
Adding: Auburn +2.5 -108 2x, for a total of 5x
Passes
FAU +7 @ Minny
Tennessee +6.5 vs. Florida
Army +10 vs. Akron
Pitt -1.5 vs. Iowa
Texas A&M +4.5 vs. Miami (FL)
Florida Int'l +28 vs. USF
Friday 9/19
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 4
Passing Baylor/UConn tonight. My opinion would be to play Baylor. Tomorrow's plays should be up fairly early. I'll try to get a post up with some updated leans tonight, but that depends on whether I have to attend to theFiancee after a poker tourney. Good luck.
Thursday 9/19
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 4,
plays
Small one for the night.
Colorado +3 -108 1x
Leans list has stayed the same except Ole Miss is now on the Strong Leans list. Good luck tonight.
Colorado +3 -108 1x
Leans list has stayed the same except Ole Miss is now on the Strong Leans list. Good luck tonight.
Trisomy 21 - Week 3
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 4,
trisomy 21
It's almost game time. I am liking my side:
Try to follow along with the logic on this one. I count at least 5 different contradictions:
Six teams parlays you can take straight to the bank, homey:
I love it when Covers' posters say games are too easy:
Guess who's back? Read the thread for the fades, but this was too awesome to pass up:
I hope I can be as much of a degenerate while channeling my inner Mike Gundy. Good luck this week everyone.
SEEMS EVERYONE IS ON KSTATE TONIGHT??? WE ALL LOVE THIS PICK SO MUCH I HAVENT SEEN THIS FORUM SO SURE OF A PICK IN AWHILE SO BEST OF LUCK TO US ALL GREAT DOING BUSINESS WITH EVERYONE
Try to follow along with the logic on this one. I count at least 5 different contradictions:
Kansas St -3.5 @ Louisville: Unless this is a VASTLY different Louisville team than the one I saw no-show to in-state rival UK the other day this game is going to be a bloodbath. KSU has a rebuilt team frankensteined from some JuCo transfers. They appear to be working out very nicely. KSU has pounded every inferior team they've met. Louisville is surely another inferior team.WVA -3 @ COL: While WVA isn't a bad team they're no super team. They were pretty lame against ECU. While they might be better prepared for this one I seriously doubt the altitude will help them any. Wha't more, anyone who thinks the lost of the start RB-Slayton hasn't hurt them hasn't been paying attention. Devine is fast but he's a waif between the tackles. If he doesn't get outside he gets nothing done. Will COL be able to slow WVA? Maybe. They're not all that coordinated defensively but they've got an edge @ QB and the WVA defense should be GASSED and bordering on useless by the 2h.Baylor @ UConn -14: "We won a game against a Pac-10 opponent!!! We are the champions..." Yeah, that's right, Waco wackos. Now let's try against a team that can run the ball and play defense. Good luck with that.Ohio @ Northwestern: Ohio has put up valiant struggles in their new spread offense...no wins, just valiant spread covering struggles. NU has NOT. They've won a couple of games but their defensive prowess has been subpar to say the least. Despite the new Defensive Coordinator they've continued to BLOW. The question is whether they will be able to run the football and get the GASSED defense some rest here and there. I think the easy win against Cuse got the coaches heads stuck in their asses. It's not always going to be that easy. Ohio also plays the spread offense (as of this year) and they've been making plays. I think putting a gassed defense against a reasonably successful offense is a recipe for another scrape it out and hope to get lucky win by a single score. I'll be shocked if this game is much different from the Duke sloth fest.FAU @ Minnesota -6.5: Gophers have greatly improved and should win this game. That said, all their games have been close (the BGSU game was close until the Falcons quit in the 4Q). FAU is again being touted as the cream of their sad little crop and they may be but there's no reason to think they'll win here. This is a bit of a grudge match for the Gophers and don't think they'll be letting off the gas. They've got some momentum and FAU is going to be battered after their dance with MSU last week. I got tired and sore just from watching that one. That said, U of M doesn't have nearly the O-line nor D-line that the Spartans have. FAU should put some points on the board against this highly suspect Gopher D. Enought to cover? There's a pretty fair chance of that.
Six teams parlays you can take straight to the bank, homey:
1FRESNO ST. 2GEORGIA 3LSU 4ARMY 5BUFFALO 6TULSA EASY MONEY WEEK 4 30-6 AGAINST THE SPREAD
I love it when Covers' posters say games are too easy:
BYU - 29 against Wyoming?????Wyoming is TERRIBLE!!! they beat OHIO by 1 point, and squeeked by North Dakota State by 3pts.NORTH DAKOTA STATE!!!!!BYU pasted UCLA and they are playing in Provo. This should be covered by half time.BYU -29 = $$$$$Big 12Miami -4 at Texas A&MMiami is too quick and McGee may be out with a shoulder injury.This seems too easy.Miami -4
Guess who's back? Read the thread for the fades, but this was too awesome to pass up:
I am a Father, a Husband
I Man Up for my record.
I hope I can be as much of a degenerate while channeling my inner Mike Gundy. Good luck this week everyone.
Wednesday 9/17
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 4,
plays
I have some things to take care of tonight, so Trisomy 21 won't be up until later. For now:
Louisville +5 -110 3x
Good luck.
Louisville +5 -110 3x
Good luck.
Leans - Week 3
,
Labels:
leans,
ncaaf week 4,
nfl week 3
The books are giving me the week off, I guess. I don't see nearly as many plays as the last two weeks. The important thing is to not force anything. Expect a big play or two, but total exposure to be much less.
Strong Leans
Louisville +3.5 vs. Kansas State (Wed.)
Arizona State +7 vs. Georgia
Toledo +7 vs. Fresno State
Arkansas +9.5 vs. Alabama
Kansas City +5 @ Atlanta
Green Bay +3 vs. Dallas
Moderate Leans
Colorado +3 vs. West Virginia (Thu.)
Auburn +3 vs. LSU
Troy +21 @ Ohio State
NC State +7.5 vs. ECU
Tennessee +6 vs. Florida
Houston +5 @ Tennessee
Pittsburgh +3 @ Philadelphia
Weak Leans
UCF +10.5 @ BC
Pitt -1.5 vs. Iowa
Texas A&M +4.5 vs. Miami (FL)
Central Michigan +10.5 @ Purdue
Florida Int +28 vs. USF
Wyoming +28 @ BYU
Detroit +4 @ San Fran
Strong Leans
Louisville +3.5 vs. Kansas State (Wed.)
Arizona State +7 vs. Georgia
Toledo +7 vs. Fresno State
Arkansas +9.5 vs. Alabama
Kansas City +5 @ Atlanta
Green Bay +3 vs. Dallas
Moderate Leans
Colorado +3 vs. West Virginia (Thu.)
Auburn +3 vs. LSU
Troy +21 @ Ohio State
NC State +7.5 vs. ECU
Tennessee +6 vs. Florida
Houston +5 @ Tennessee
Pittsburgh +3 @ Philadelphia
Weak Leans
UCF +10.5 @ BC
Pitt -1.5 vs. Iowa
Texas A&M +4.5 vs. Miami (FL)
Central Michigan +10.5 @ Purdue
Florida Int +28 vs. USF
Wyoming +28 @ BYU
Detroit +4 @ San Fran
Review of Week 2
,
Labels:
in review,
ncaaf week 3,
nfl week 2
I watched roughly 15 minutes of football this weekend. The only thing I can really say is that Saturday was a disappointment. Virginia Tech (lost by 3), South Florida (lost by 1), and South Carolina (pushed) changed the card from being epic to being mediocre. Had those games gone my way, it would have been a 19x swing. Fortunately, it looks like this weekend will be less exciting. I'll be back with leans tomorrow.
Sunday 9/14
,
Labels:
nfl week 2,
plays
I hate all of these picks. I also do not want to drive 3 hours with a hangover.
Minnesota -2 -107 4x
Washington -1 +102 4x
Detroit +3 +101 2x
Tampa Bay -9 -103 3x
Adding: Cleveland +6.5 -108 2x
Good luck.
Minnesota -2 -107 4x
Washington -1 +102 4x
Detroit +3 +101 2x
Tampa Bay -9 -103 3x
Adding: Cleveland +6.5 -108 2x
Good luck.
Saturday 9/13
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 3,
plays
Naturally, USF won by 3 last night. Cute. My lovely fiancee is bringing her laptop tonight, so I will put the NFL plays in tomorrow, provided today doesn't bankrupt me.
Rice +8 -101 2x
Mississippi State +9.5 -109 1x
BYU -8 -110 4x
Purdue +7.5 -101 3x
South Carolina +7 -101 3x
Notre Dame +2 -106 1x
Virginia Tech -6.5 -110 4x
Maryland +14 -101 4x
Tulane +12 -102 1x
Washington +21 -105 1x
Florida Atlantic +17 -101 1x
Good luck everyone.
Rice +8 -101 2x
Mississippi State +9.5 -109 1x
BYU -8 -110 4x
Purdue +7.5 -101 3x
South Carolina +7 -101 3x
Notre Dame +2 -106 1x
Virginia Tech -6.5 -110 4x
Maryland +14 -101 4x
Tulane +12 -102 1x
Washington +21 -105 1x
Florida Atlantic +17 -101 1x
Good luck everyone.
Friday 9/12
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 3,
plays
No time tonight for leans. There hasn't been much, if any, change to the list from Tuesday. Here is your loser for the night:
South Florida -4 -108 4x
All of college and pro football will be up tomorrow morning before I leave for the weekend. Good luck.
South Florida -4 -108 4x
All of college and pro football will be up tomorrow morning before I leave for the weekend. Good luck.
Thursday 9/11
,
I forgot I was going to a baseball game tonight. Passing UNC. Leans will be up tomorrow. Good luck if you play the Heels.
Trisomy 21 - Week 2
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 3,
nfl week 2,
trisomy 21
I could write this whole post about the USC-tOSU game, but I think you get the picture. Instead, let's tackle some other idiocy on the boards.
Man, if only my 27 year old ass would suit up for Penn State, we would never lose:
I didn't realize Snoop built a time machine in 1999 to start posting gambling picks in 2008. To be honest, 1999 Snoop's picks aren't that bad:
Remember what I was saying about Vegas setting public dogs this week? fightintigraz obviously doesn't subscribe to my newsletter:
Wow, I am going to be against all of byang's parlay plays. Also, 4 team parlays are for people who like losing money.
I am highly disappointed DoubleUp4Life has decided to quit posting already at Covers. However, I would like to nominate goallinebob in his place. Any objections?
Back with revised leans and a probable play on Lawrence Taylor's alma mater tomorrow.
Man, if only my 27 year old ass would suit up for Penn State, we would never lose:
YaMon's ONE game HUGE winner - WEEK 3
get it before it rises, BUFFALO -6
Just lost to Pitt on the rd & probably should of won the game; then on the other side we have Temple who wins game 1 then loses a heartbreaker to UConn at home in OT.
Did you know Buffalo QB is old (22+)
Buffalo by 14+
I didn't realize Snoop built a time machine in 1999 to start posting gambling picks in 2008. To be honest, 1999 Snoop's picks aren't that bad:
That's what I've got so far this week. Feedback is requested and much appreciated, let's work together to stick it to the man.
Remember what I was saying about Vegas setting public dogs this week? fightintigraz obviously doesn't subscribe to my newsletter:
Some leans -KU + 150Rice + 250UCLA + 300 ( I really want to play this one..Theres magic in the air at UCLA right now)GTech + 250Temple + 200
Wow, I am going to be against all of byang's parlay plays. Also, 4 team parlays are for people who like losing money.
A LITTLE HELP WOULD BE GREAT BUT I THINK EVERYBODY IS RIDING THESE PICKS AS WELL.....
1.CAL -14.5 WHAT ARE YOU SERIOUS...MARYLAND....LOLZ!
2.ECU -13 <-- RIDE THAT TRAIN 'TIL IT STOPS....
3.VANDERBILT -7 <---IS THIS A TRICK....TO ME IS GUARANTEE $???? AT HOME AS WELL...WHAT??? ANY IDEA WHY WHEN THEY BASICALLY HAMMER S.CAROLINA??? 4. ARIZON UNIV. - 10.5
I am highly disappointed DoubleUp4Life has decided to quit posting already at Covers. However, I would like to nominate goallinebob in his place. Any objections?
Only one day to ncaaf where you can really CLEAN up30-6 so far and WILL WIN 20 games by SAT night and can't wait for NFL as the DOGS are comming and it will not be PRETTY. Oddsmakers time to elevate the lines as JP will follow the favorites,,,there will be major SU wins too .That where the big money wins will be and there should be plenty.been analizing ML wins in ncaaf and games i like as upsets areKANSASRICEAKRONA/FG/TCHTULANEOHIO ST ,,,,?????? Now wouldn't that bring a nice pay dayStrong winnersTEXAS -26.5GEORGIA -7PSU -26.5IOWA -13.5G /TCH + 7 * Dog SUCAL -14BAYLOR +2.5* Dog SUARIZ -10BOISE -15.5 no body wins on BLUE carpetSDS +6 can win SULAFFAYETTE +24.5 They could be the upset of the day SU WAll plays will be REFINED thursday by NOON
Back with revised leans and a probable play on Lawrence Taylor's alma mater tomorrow.
Leans - Week 2
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Labels:
leans,
ncaaf week 3,
nfl week 2
Vegas is ready to take a stand again this week. I'm surprised to see them setting up some public dogs already, but the average gambler is starting to take more underdogs, so Vegas responded by trapping them. This is going to be another indigestion inducing weekend.
Strong Leans
UNC +4.5 @ Rutgers (Thu.)
Miss St +10.5 vs. Auburn
BYU -7.5 vs. UCLA
South Carolina +7 vs. Georgia
Maryland +14 vs. Cal
Tulane +12.5 vs. ECU
New Mexico +10 vs. Arizona
[Syracuse +26 vs. Penn State]
Minnesota +1 vs. Indianapolis
Washington +1 vs. New Orleans
Tampa Bay -9 vs. Atlanta
Moderate Leans
USF -3.5 vs. Kansas (Fri.)
Rice +7 @ Vandy
Purdue +7 vs. Oregon
Notre Dame pk vs. Michigan
VT -7 vs. GT
Washington +20.5 vs. Oklahoma
Detroit +3 vs. Green Bay
Cleveland +6 vs. Pittsburgh
New England +1 @ New York Jets (?!)
Weak Leans
Nevada +26.5 vs. Mizzou
NC State +17.5 @ Clemson
tOSU +10.5 @ USC
FAU +17 @ MSU
Oakland +3.5 @ Kansas City
Cincinnati -1 vs. Tennessee
St Louis +9 vs. New York Giants
Barely on the Radar
Fresno pk vs. Wisky
Wazzu +2.5 @ Baylor
Stanford +13 @ TCU
Temple +6 @ Buffalo
EDIT: I just looked over the leans list again. I am pleasantly surprised by the proportion of home teams on this list. For some reason, whether it is my last bits of inner square or some sort of anecdote in my brain, I would rather be on the side of an ugly home dog than a more reasonable road dog (see: Central Michigan, Cincinnati).
Strong Leans
UNC +4.5 @ Rutgers (Thu.)
Miss St +10.5 vs. Auburn
BYU -7.5 vs. UCLA
South Carolina +7 vs. Georgia
Maryland +14 vs. Cal
Tulane +12.5 vs. ECU
New Mexico +10 vs. Arizona
[Syracuse +26 vs. Penn State]
Minnesota +1 vs. Indianapolis
Washington +1 vs. New Orleans
Tampa Bay -9 vs. Atlanta
Moderate Leans
USF -3.5 vs. Kansas (Fri.)
Rice +7 @ Vandy
Purdue +7 vs. Oregon
Notre Dame pk vs. Michigan
VT -7 vs. GT
Washington +20.5 vs. Oklahoma
Detroit +3 vs. Green Bay
Cleveland +6 vs. Pittsburgh
New England +1 @ New York Jets (?!)
Weak Leans
Nevada +26.5 vs. Mizzou
NC State +17.5 @ Clemson
tOSU +10.5 @ USC
FAU +17 @ MSU
Oakland +3.5 @ Kansas City
Cincinnati -1 vs. Tennessee
St Louis +9 vs. New York Giants
Barely on the Radar
Fresno pk vs. Wisky
Wazzu +2.5 @ Baylor
Stanford +13 @ TCU
Temple +6 @ Buffalo
EDIT: I just looked over the leans list again. I am pleasantly surprised by the proportion of home teams on this list. For some reason, whether it is my last bits of inner square or some sort of anecdote in my brain, I would rather be on the side of an ugly home dog than a more reasonable road dog (see: Central Michigan, Cincinnati).
Review of Week 1
,
Labels:
in review,
ncaaf week 2,
nfl week 1
Before we get started:
Green Bay -2.5 -106 2x
Another absolutely terrible weekend on the college side. I should really know better than playing such a large card this early in the season. Not like I won't do it next year and bitch when I lose another 10 units. At least the books learned their lesson and didn't set a bunch of trap lines again for this coming week. Oh wait... Anyway.
San Jose State +27 @ Nebraska 2x
This game was a helluva lot closer than it should have been. Pelini wanted to run it up at the end.
Temple +6 vs. Connecticut 3x
What a shitshow. I thought I was screwed when the game went to overtime. Fortunately, Temple made their FG.
East Carolina +7 vs. West Virginia 2x
West Virginia didn't bend me over. I am shocked.
Cincinnati +22.5 @ Oklahoma 3x
Central Michigan +24 @ Georgia 2x
I had both of these circled as big plays early in the week. Late action made me reduce the size of the bet. Obviously, I should have just passed as these were never in question.
New Mexico ML @ Texas A&M 1x
This was absolutely the correct play. I have no regrets.
Duke +7 vs. Northwestern 1x
I didn't see a down of this game. At least I won. Woo?
Nevada +10 vs. Texas Tech 3x
Houston +15 @ Oklahoma State 4x
Louisiana Tech +22 @ Kansas 5x
These are grouped together because they were absolutely the right play. Nevada gave the game away, Houston was in it until the end, and Taylor Bennett, current LaTech and former GaTech QB, remains a flaming asshole. These are the types of plays that will make squares go bankrupt in Week 6.
UTEP +26 @ Texas 2x
This was probably forced. There wasn't a ton of Texas action.
UL Monroe +14.5 @ Arkansas
Arkansas is terrible this year. Too bad the secret is out now.
Baltimore +1.5 vs. Cincinnati 1x
The Ravens are vastly underrated. They are going to give the Stillers a run for their money in the AFC North.
Miami +3 vs. New York 1x
Tampa Bay +3 @ New Orleans 1x
These were such a teases. Fortunately, I remembered Chad Pennington still has a noodle arm and Jeff Garcia is still gay before I got my hopes up.
Houston +6.5 @ Pittsburgh 1x
St Louis +8.5 @ Philadelphia 1x
Cleveland +6 vs. Dallas 2x
These were all over before they stepped on the field. It's part of playing Week 1.
Atlanta +3 vs. Detroit 3x
Thank you, Michael Turner, for salvaging a shitty afternoon.
Chicago +10 @ Indianapolis 2x
Just because Neckbeard is the quarterback, it doesn't mean Chicago doesn't have a good defense. Also, Neckbeard looked serviceable against the banged up Colt secondary. It should be interesting to see how the public values the Bears from here on out.
Leans will be up tomorrow and it looks like there are going to be a lot of them, again.
Green Bay -2.5 -106 2x
Another absolutely terrible weekend on the college side. I should really know better than playing such a large card this early in the season. Not like I won't do it next year and bitch when I lose another 10 units. At least the books learned their lesson and didn't set a bunch of trap lines again for this coming week. Oh wait... Anyway.
San Jose State +27 @ Nebraska 2x
This game was a helluva lot closer than it should have been. Pelini wanted to run it up at the end.
Temple +6 vs. Connecticut 3x
What a shitshow. I thought I was screwed when the game went to overtime. Fortunately, Temple made their FG.
East Carolina +7 vs. West Virginia 2x
West Virginia didn't bend me over. I am shocked.
Cincinnati +22.5 @ Oklahoma 3x
Central Michigan +24 @ Georgia 2x
I had both of these circled as big plays early in the week. Late action made me reduce the size of the bet. Obviously, I should have just passed as these were never in question.
New Mexico ML @ Texas A&M 1x
This was absolutely the correct play. I have no regrets.
Duke +7 vs. Northwestern 1x
I didn't see a down of this game. At least I won. Woo?
Nevada +10 vs. Texas Tech 3x
Houston +15 @ Oklahoma State 4x
Louisiana Tech +22 @ Kansas 5x
These are grouped together because they were absolutely the right play. Nevada gave the game away, Houston was in it until the end, and Taylor Bennett, current LaTech and former GaTech QB, remains a flaming asshole. These are the types of plays that will make squares go bankrupt in Week 6.
UTEP +26 @ Texas 2x
This was probably forced. There wasn't a ton of Texas action.
UL Monroe +14.5 @ Arkansas
Arkansas is terrible this year. Too bad the secret is out now.
Baltimore +1.5 vs. Cincinnati 1x
The Ravens are vastly underrated. They are going to give the Stillers a run for their money in the AFC North.
Miami +3 vs. New York 1x
Tampa Bay +3 @ New Orleans 1x
These were such a teases. Fortunately, I remembered Chad Pennington still has a noodle arm and Jeff Garcia is still gay before I got my hopes up.
Houston +6.5 @ Pittsburgh 1x
St Louis +8.5 @ Philadelphia 1x
Cleveland +6 vs. Dallas 2x
These were all over before they stepped on the field. It's part of playing Week 1.
Atlanta +3 vs. Detroit 3x
Thank you, Michael Turner, for salvaging a shitty afternoon.
Chicago +10 @ Indianapolis 2x
Just because Neckbeard is the quarterback, it doesn't mean Chicago doesn't have a good defense. Also, Neckbeard looked serviceable against the banged up Colt secondary. It should be interesting to see how the public values the Bears from here on out.
Leans will be up tomorrow and it looks like there are going to be a lot of them, again.
Sunday 9/7
,
Labels:
nfl week 1,
plays
Ugly, ugly day yesterday. I only went 5-7, but lost four of my five biggest bets. I lost, but Vegas lost, too. Hopefully today goes better.
Baltimore +1.5 ev 1x
Miami +3 -119 1x
Houston +6.5 ev 1x
Atlanta +3 +108 3x
Tampa Bay +3 +105 1x
St Louis +8.5 -107 1x
Cleveland +6 -102 2x
Adding:
Chicago +10 -106 2x
As I have mentioned previously, it is usually harder to pick sides in the NFL. Today, that is not the case. I'll be on Green Bay tomorrow night as well.
Baltimore +1.5 ev 1x
Miami +3 -119 1x
Houston +6.5 ev 1x
Atlanta +3 +108 3x
Tampa Bay +3 +105 1x
St Louis +8.5 -107 1x
Cleveland +6 -102 2x
Adding:
Chicago +10 -106 2x
As I have mentioned previously, it is usually harder to pick sides in the NFL. Today, that is not the case. I'll be on Green Bay tomorrow night as well.
Saturday 9/6
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 2,
plays
Update: Today sucked again. I'll wait to see what the other people on RMMB came up with, but I would have to imagine they, along with Vegas, took it on the chin. I am definitely going to be scaling back the NFL plays tomorrow, which will probably go undefeated because I am playing tentative now.
I am unhappy with some of the late action I am seeing this morning. It's probably still going to be an above average card, but it won't be the spectacular one I was envisioning as late as last night. As I mentioned yesterday, the picks today will come in shifts. I'll just be updating this post throughout the day.
Earlies
Temple +6.5 -107 3x
Dr. Bob is my guess as to why this looks a bit public this morning.
San Jose State +27 -102 2x
I really didn't see much action on this game either way today, but everyone was backing Nebraska earlier in the week.
Tweeners
Cincinnati +22.5 -103 3x
Didn't you see the way OU dominated the Mocs last week? How can I be on the Bearcats?
Central Michigan +24 -103 2x
This was nearly a non-play. This was one of the games that I talked about on Tuesday as possibly being a 5xer. A lot of late action is going on the Chips, but I am sticking with my original feeling on the line.
East Carolina +7 -105 2x
The Pirates still aren't getting any respect, even after upsetting VoTech last week. WVU scares me, because I've faded them so much over the last 2 years only to get my ass burnt. Hopefully, Bill Stewart isn't Rich Rodriguez.
New Mexico ML +110 1x
Almost no action on the boards for this game, but this is based on principle. WAC teams should be getting a lot more than 2.5 against a traditional Big XII power.
Nightcaps
Duke +6 -107 1x
This was another one of those games that I had labeled higher before today. Too much Duke action to make it very large.
Louisiana-Monroe +14 -109 1x
See remarks about New Mexico and substitute in Sun Belt and SEC.
Louisiana Tech +22 -105 5x
Something about these shitty Louisiana schools has me excited tonight. Also, everyone on the boards is on Kansas, which is shouldn't be surprising considering how well they played last year. I guess everyone forgot that they lost their two best players to the NFL Draft.
Houston +15 -105 4x
"Dood! Did you see how much Homo State ran it up on Wazzu last week! They are a lock this week, bro!!!1!11!!!"
Nevada +10.5 -105 3x
I thought Texas Tech was supposed to be a potential Top 10 team this year? Then why are they only laying 10.5 to a WAC school?
UTEP +26 -102 2x
Texas is another of those schools that is high on tradition but low (for them) on talent.
That's it for tonight. I'll be back tomorrow around noon with the NFL plays. Good luck.
I am unhappy with some of the late action I am seeing this morning. It's probably still going to be an above average card, but it won't be the spectacular one I was envisioning as late as last night. As I mentioned yesterday, the picks today will come in shifts. I'll just be updating this post throughout the day.
Earlies
Temple +6.5 -107 3x
Dr. Bob is my guess as to why this looks a bit public this morning.
San Jose State +27 -102 2x
I really didn't see much action on this game either way today, but everyone was backing Nebraska earlier in the week.
Tweeners
Cincinnati +22.5 -103 3x
Didn't you see the way OU dominated the Mocs last week? How can I be on the Bearcats?
Central Michigan +24 -103 2x
This was nearly a non-play. This was one of the games that I talked about on Tuesday as possibly being a 5xer. A lot of late action is going on the Chips, but I am sticking with my original feeling on the line.
East Carolina +7 -105 2x
The Pirates still aren't getting any respect, even after upsetting VoTech last week. WVU scares me, because I've faded them so much over the last 2 years only to get my ass burnt. Hopefully, Bill Stewart isn't Rich Rodriguez.
New Mexico ML +110 1x
Almost no action on the boards for this game, but this is based on principle. WAC teams should be getting a lot more than 2.5 against a traditional Big XII power.
Nightcaps
Duke +6 -107 1x
This was another one of those games that I had labeled higher before today. Too much Duke action to make it very large.
Louisiana-Monroe +14 -109 1x
See remarks about New Mexico and substitute in Sun Belt and SEC.
Louisiana Tech +22 -105 5x
Something about these shitty Louisiana schools has me excited tonight. Also, everyone on the boards is on Kansas, which is shouldn't be surprising considering how well they played last year. I guess everyone forgot that they lost their two best players to the NFL Draft.
Houston +15 -105 4x
"Dood! Did you see how much Homo State ran it up on Wazzu last week! They are a lock this week, bro!!!1!11!!!"
Nevada +10.5 -105 3x
I thought Texas Tech was supposed to be a potential Top 10 team this year? Then why are they only laying 10.5 to a WAC school?
UTEP +26 -102 2x
Texas is another of those schools that is high on tradition but low (for them) on talent.
That's it for tonight. I'll be back tomorrow around noon with the NFL plays. Good luck.
Leans, Part 2 - Week 1
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Labels:
leans,
ncaaf week 2,
nfl week 1
I see two 5x plays tomorrow and more than a few bets greater than 2x. Should be interesting. I can't wait to cripple my bankroll in the second week of betting. On the NFL side, not much has changed. I can't believe Vegas is willing to take this many chances this early in the season, but I'm going to take the chances with them.
Also, tomorrow, I'll be posting the picks in waves. You almost have to with a card as big as I'm expecting tomorrow. Expect the first shot around 11:30a, then the next round at 3p, and the last few around 6p before I head into the city for a bachelor party.
Strong Leans
12p Temple +7 vs. Connecticut
1230p San Jose State +26.5 @ Nebraska
330p Cincinnati +21.5 @ Oklahoma
7p Houston +16.5 @ Oklahoma State
7p Louisiana Tech +20.5 @ Kansas
9p Nevada +10 vs. Texas Tech
Baltimore +1 vs. Cincinnati
Atlanta +3 vs. Detroit
Cleveland +6.5 vs. Dallas
Green Bay -1 vs. Minnesota
Moderate Leans
12p Marshall +21 @ Wisconsin
330p Central Michigan +23 @ Georgia
430p East Carolina +7.5 vs. West Virginia (I'm surprised WVU is public)
5p New Mexico +2.5 vs. Texas A&M
630p Washington State +13.5 vs. California
7p Louisiana-Monroe +12.5 @ Arkansas
7p Duke +6.5 vs. Northwestern
10p Toledo +22 @ Arizona
1015p UTEP +23 vs. Texas
Miami +3 vs. New York Jets (Simmons probably ruined this for me)
Houston +6.5 @ Pittsburgh
Tennessee +3 vs. Jacksonville (The shooting probably ruined this for me)
St. Louis +7 @ Philadelphia
I came up with these independent of MoneyLine, but the fact that our lean lists are so similar is either encouraging or discouraging depending on how you look at it. Fire off questions in the comments. Good luck.
Also, tomorrow, I'll be posting the picks in waves. You almost have to with a card as big as I'm expecting tomorrow. Expect the first shot around 11:30a, then the next round at 3p, and the last few around 6p before I head into the city for a bachelor party.
Strong Leans
12p Temple +7 vs. Connecticut
1230p San Jose State +26.5 @ Nebraska
330p Cincinnati +21.5 @ Oklahoma
7p Houston +16.5 @ Oklahoma State
7p Louisiana Tech +20.5 @ Kansas
9p Nevada +10 vs. Texas Tech
Baltimore +1 vs. Cincinnati
Atlanta +3 vs. Detroit
Cleveland +6.5 vs. Dallas
Green Bay -1 vs. Minnesota
Moderate Leans
12p Marshall +21 @ Wisconsin
330p Central Michigan +23 @ Georgia
430p East Carolina +7.5 vs. West Virginia (I'm surprised WVU is public)
5p New Mexico +2.5 vs. Texas A&M
630p Washington State +13.5 vs. California
7p Louisiana-Monroe +12.5 @ Arkansas
7p Duke +6.5 vs. Northwestern
10p Toledo +22 @ Arizona
1015p UTEP +23 vs. Texas
Miami +3 vs. New York Jets (Simmons probably ruined this for me)
Houston +6.5 @ Pittsburgh
Tennessee +3 vs. Jacksonville (The shooting probably ruined this for me)
St. Louis +7 @ Philadelphia
I came up with these independent of MoneyLine, but the fact that our lean lists are so similar is either encouraging or discouraging depending on how you look at it. Fire off questions in the comments. Good luck.
Trisomy 21 - Week 1
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Labels:
ncaaf week 2,
nfl week 1,
trisomy 21
Vegas has put up a ridiculously square card on both the college and pro sides. Let's see what the geniuses at Covers think about them.
I love guys that don't watch games but know how to adjust a team's defense anyway:
Blackshirt clearly knows his trends:
The extra moneybags let you know this is good:
If it's on Wikipedia, it must be true:
I love guys that don't watch games but know how to adjust a team's defense anyway:
I am with you on the South Carolina lean against Vandy. I live in Nashville and I read that Vandy's QB (Nickson) rushed for almost 80% of their rushing yards against Miami (OH) last week. S.C. has got to shadow him with a linebacker and let the front 5 work the box and let the speed of the secondary take care of the rest.
Blackshirt clearly knows his trends:
PLAY AGAINST any college favorite in Game Two of the season who won 7 or more games last year if they lost Game One SU as a favorite.
That’s because teams in this role are 23-42 ATS since 1980, including 7-23 ATS when facing an opponent that is also off a loss. Better yet, by poking around and dressing them up as double-digit favorites in these ‘shakedown’ games, they slip to 3-16 ATS.
Last year one team met our criteria when Florida State laid 32 points at home against UAB just five days after stubbing their toe at Clemson as 3.5 road chalk in their lid lifter. The Seminoles went through the motions in a 34-24 win over the Blazers, not enough to overcome the huge impost.
MIAMI (OHIO) FITS THIS SITUATION PLAYING AGAINST THE WOLVERINES----FYI
The extra moneybags let you know this is good:
Pats-16.5i'll agree with most that this will not be the same team as last year, but I think their offense will be just as dominant, and their Defense is well coached enough and disciplined to keep the lowly Cheifs in check....Plus being the first game of the year, and being at home coming off the biggest dissapointment of a game in Boston history....add in the fact they are playing one of the top 5 projected worst teams in the NFL, I think the worse case of a point spread loss for the Pats in this one is a meaningless backdoor with a minute left...which we have all been through....but I really don't think so in this one, the Pats will be up by at least 14-17 by halftime and will pound them hard from bell to bell in their first game after an 0-4 pre-season.We all remember the Pats first 8 games last season, they beat the daylights out of everyone, then vegas started adjusting the lines to ridicolous numbers, hense the Pats ended up with a losing ATS mark by seasons end....pound the Pats here IMO they win very comfortably in the window of a 38-13 type of final.GLTA
If it's on Wikipedia, it must be true:
And finally, it wouldn't be an edition of Trisomy 21 without quoting possibly the dumbest bettor I've ever seen, DoubleUp4Life. I chose this particular post, but you should read the whole thread. I would bet that you could turn a profit just fading this joker:After doing some research, I found an interesting angle to the NFLKickoff Game on Thursday:Since 2004, the NFL implemented a Thursday Night Game in which the Super Bowl Champion from the previous year play the first game at home. The HOME TEAM has not only won but covered in this special edition slugfest, except for year one. I've listed the Super Bowl Champs with the lines and scores for the first game. Currently, the line is 3 1/2, so I will buy it down to three and not get burnt by the hook. Good luck to all and enjoy the game.2003-2004 Super Bowl XXXVIII NE 32 Carolina 292004 - NE (-3) 27 Indy 242004-2005 Super Bowl XXXIX NE 24 Philly 212005 - NE (-7 1/2) 30 Oakland 202005-2006 Super Bowl XXXX Pittsburgh 21 Seattle 102006 - Pittsburgh (-1) 28 Miami 172006-2007 Super Bowl XXXXI Indy 29 Chicago 172007 - Indy (-5 1/2) 41 NO 102007- 2008 Super Bowl XXXXII NY Giants 17 NE 142008 - NY Giants (-3 1/2)????Further information can be found by looking on Wikipedia,under National Football League Kickoff Game.
That's it for this week. No posting tomorrow since I have a fantasy draft to attend in the evening. I'll be back Friday with the updated leans. Obviously, no play on the college or pro game tomorrow night. Good luck.Yeah ... That ESPN 6:15 to 7:30 PM EST.
Slot always scares me ... the Dog does very well there..
Leans - Week 1
,
Labels:
leans,
ncaaf week 2,
nfl week 1
I don't know who the hell Vegas is trying to kid with these lines. It would not surprise me to roll my bankroll over just this weekend. I see one college play that will definitely be 5x and at least 3 others have the opportunity to go that high. On top of that, there are eight games currently on my lean list for the NFL, which is about twice as many as usual. Hopefully, this blog doesn't shut down after only a month of posting.
Strong Leans
Central Michigan +23 @ Georgia
Cincinnati +21 @ Oklahoma
Duke +6.5 vs. Northwestern
Nevada +10 vs. Texas Tech
Temple +7 vs. Connecticut
Mississippi +7.5 @ Wake Forest
NOTE: Oregon State would be here, but no way I am betting against PSU.
Baltimore +1 vs. Cincinnati
Atlanta +3 vs. Detroit
Cleveland +5.5 vs. Dallas
Green Bay -3 vs. Minnesota
Moderate Leans
Louisiana-Monroe +12.5 @ Arkansas
Marshall +21 @ Wisconsin
Houston +16 @ Oklahoma State
Louisiana Tech +20.5 @ Kansas
Washington State +13.5 vs. California
New Mexico +2.5 vs. Texas A&M
Toledo +22 @ Arizona
Miami +3 vs. New York Jets
Houston +6.5 @ Pittsburgh
Tennessee +3 vs. Jacksonville
St. Louis +7 @ Philadelphia
Weak Leans
Eastern Michigan +21 @ Michigan State
Florida International +27 @ Iowa
Tulane +30 @ Alabama
Southern Mississippi +17.5 @ Auburn
Miami University +14.5 @ Michigan
Minnesota +6 @ Bowling Green
North Texas +21.5 vs. Tulsa
Strong Leans
Central Michigan +23 @ Georgia
Cincinnati +21 @ Oklahoma
Duke +6.5 vs. Northwestern
Nevada +10 vs. Texas Tech
Temple +7 vs. Connecticut
Mississippi +7.5 @ Wake Forest
NOTE: Oregon State would be here, but no way I am betting against PSU.
Baltimore +1 vs. Cincinnati
Atlanta +3 vs. Detroit
Cleveland +5.5 vs. Dallas
Green Bay -3 vs. Minnesota
Moderate Leans
Louisiana-Monroe +12.5 @ Arkansas
Marshall +21 @ Wisconsin
Houston +16 @ Oklahoma State
Louisiana Tech +20.5 @ Kansas
Washington State +13.5 vs. California
New Mexico +2.5 vs. Texas A&M
Toledo +22 @ Arizona
Miami +3 vs. New York Jets
Houston +6.5 @ Pittsburgh
Tennessee +3 vs. Jacksonville
St. Louis +7 @ Philadelphia
Weak Leans
Eastern Michigan +21 @ Michigan State
Florida International +27 @ Iowa
Tulane +30 @ Alabama
Southern Mississippi +17.5 @ Auburn
Miami University +14.5 @ Michigan
Minnesota +6 @ Bowling Green
North Texas +21.5 vs. Tulsa
Review of Week 0 - Update2
,
Labels:
in review,
ncaaf week 1
Update2: UCLA +7 vs. Tennessee
I have no idea what happened in this game. I watched the 1st quarter, saw the asshole UCLA QB throw two picks and went to bed. Then, I woke up and saw UCLA won in OT. Good for me, I guess.
Will be back with leans later.
Update: Rutgers -3.5 vs. Fresno State 3x
Watching this game was like getting repeatedly punched in the testicles. Remind me to never bet on Mike Teel ever again. Fresno got completely outplayed in the first half. Rutgers must have had 25 plays on the Fresno side of the field in the first half alone and came away with zero points. I should have hedged, but I was stubborn. This one stings a little bit. Also, can we stop with the Schiano should replace Paterno meme. It's tired and retarded.
Stanford +3 vs. Oregon State 2x
Always bet on teams with white running backs. Actually, Oregon State was replacing their entire DL, which led to Stanford running up over 200 yards of rushing.
Baylor +11.5 vs. Wake Forest 1x
Thanks to my recent move, I didn't get to watch this game. Looking at the box score, I didn't miss much. It's kind of hard to believe that Wake could be the class of the ACC this year, and that isn't complimenting the Deacons.
SMU +3.5 @ Rice 1x
June Jones obviously can't coach defense. It's a shame his offense was terrible as well.
Bowling Green +13 @ Pitt 2x
I wish I could bet on the odds that Dave Wannstedt is still the coach on January 1st. The price of that would probably be something like -1000 though.
Washington State +7 vs. Oklahoma State 4x
At least I didn't have to sweat out my quad on Saturday. I knew this was a dumb idea as soon as I put it in. Week 1 is always a square-fest.
Kent State +7 @ Boston College
BC is still overrated. I just forgot that Kent State sucks.
Will definitely be on UCLA later. Leaning Rutgers, but action is pretty split. This is probably one of those plays that I would make in Week 5 but not Week 1.
I have no idea what happened in this game. I watched the 1st quarter, saw the asshole UCLA QB throw two picks and went to bed. Then, I woke up and saw UCLA won in OT. Good for me, I guess.
Will be back with leans later.
Update: Rutgers -3.5 vs. Fresno State 3x
Watching this game was like getting repeatedly punched in the testicles. Remind me to never bet on Mike Teel ever again. Fresno got completely outplayed in the first half. Rutgers must have had 25 plays on the Fresno side of the field in the first half alone and came away with zero points. I should have hedged, but I was stubborn. This one stings a little bit. Also, can we stop with the Schiano should replace Paterno meme. It's tired and retarded.
Stanford +3 vs. Oregon State 2x
Always bet on teams with white running backs. Actually, Oregon State was replacing their entire DL, which led to Stanford running up over 200 yards of rushing.
Baylor +11.5 vs. Wake Forest 1x
Thanks to my recent move, I didn't get to watch this game. Looking at the box score, I didn't miss much. It's kind of hard to believe that Wake could be the class of the ACC this year, and that isn't complimenting the Deacons.
SMU +3.5 @ Rice 1x
June Jones obviously can't coach defense. It's a shame his offense was terrible as well.
Bowling Green +13 @ Pitt 2x
I wish I could bet on the odds that Dave Wannstedt is still the coach on January 1st. The price of that would probably be something like -1000 though.
Washington State +7 vs. Oklahoma State 4x
At least I didn't have to sweat out my quad on Saturday. I knew this was a dumb idea as soon as I put it in. Week 1 is always a square-fest.
Kent State +7 @ Boston College
BC is still overrated. I just forgot that Kent State sucks.
Will definitely be on UCLA later. Leaning Rutgers, but action is pretty split. This is probably one of those plays that I would make in Week 5 but not Week 1.
Monday 9/1
,
Labels:
ncaaf week 1,
plays
These may be added to as I get some more information, but for now:
Rutgers -3.5 -102 1x
UCLA +7 +101 1x
EDIT: Stop being a pussy, am19psu:
Rutgers -3.5 -101 2x for a total of 3x
EDIT2: I am really starting to like this Rutgers play. Two reasons why I am not going balls out for 5x: 1. I actually leaned Fresno when it first came out. 2. It's Week 1. Everyone is hammering the hell out of Fresno and all of the normal signs are there for a big play.
Good luck.
Rutgers -3.5 -102 1x
UCLA +7 +101 1x
EDIT: Stop being a pussy, am19psu:
Rutgers -3.5 -101 2x for a total of 3x
EDIT2: I am really starting to like this Rutgers play. Two reasons why I am not going balls out for 5x: 1. I actually leaned Fresno when it first came out. 2. It's Week 1. Everyone is hammering the hell out of Fresno and all of the normal signs are there for a big play.
Good luck.
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